1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Bucking the Broncos - Week 12 Preview

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by keithjackson, Nov 21, 2014.

  1. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    2,673
    4,445
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    The moment Dan Carpenter's kick went wide left, the curse of the Buffalo Bills was lifted. These Dolphins aren't afraid of anyone anymore, not even the highly touted Denver Broncos. Once, this game seemed like icing, with fans penciling in a Loss from the beginning, but now it looks entirely winnable.

    Still, this week may be the season's toughest test, pitting the Denver Broncos' second rated passing offense against the second passing defense. Not looking to be overshadowed on the other side of the ball, Football Outsiders rates the Denver defense the most consistent in the game, and the Miami offense third most. (Ryan Tannehill and the Denver D may be the most underrated QB/Def in the NFL.) Coming into the game, the Dolphins should have all the confidence in the world, whereas the Broncos seem to be experiencing a late onslaught of the Super Bowl hangover after getting throttled 22-7 by the Rams, where their only points came off a bomb against a blown coverage. Don't be fooled by the injuries, they stunk even when they had their full compliment. The previous week against the Raiders they struggled, trailing with 3 minutes left in the first half until Oakland, true to form, surrendered five touchdowns. Against the Pats? Putrid. The Dolphins have a knack for making the teams they beat feel parts of the sky fall on their heads, and the whispers of "is Peyton done?" will surely follow another loss. (Just ask Tom Brady.)

    This may be the worst three game stretch of Peyton's non-rookie career. The gameplan is simple: pressure him into rushing his throws because he doesn't have the arm strength to compensate. Easier said than done! Peyton Manning is still the GOAT, slump or not. This season, he has 30 touchdowns (#1), 8.0 yards/attempt (#4), 106.4 rating (#3), and at home his rating skyrockets to 128.2. He is a master of knowing when and where to throw the ball, picking the best situations to use the best plays. The difference between good and great is doing all the easy things right everytime. In fact, Peyton's method is based on simplicity; he really only has 15 or so plays that he runs out of multiple formations. What makes him, and this offense, elite is his inimitable ability to connect on over-the-shoulder drop-it-in-the-bucket deep balls. In passes 20-40 yards, he is 21/40 725 8/0 with a 135.0 rating. The Broncos have 28 passes of 25+ yards(#2).The Dolphins have only allowed 12 (#3), and this Strength v. Strength is the key to the game when Denver has the ball. Prevent the big pass play, and you win. Translation: pray Emmanuel Sanders doesn't play, and if he does, he's your number one priority. He is the key to Denver's success against us.

    Demaryius Thomas is a monster trolling the middle of the field, but Brent Grimes should be able to contain him. Wes Welker is the invisible man this season; if there were an opposite to the "Comeback POTY Award", he'd win. Julius Thomas is another tough S.O.B., but, whether he plays or not, the Dolphins have dominated tight ends over the last five weeks. For fantasy football fans, Miami has only allowed eight points combined to TEs over that span. (Also, they've allowed the least points to QBs this season, too.) The biggest reason is the improved play of the Linebackers. Koa Misi is thriving in the middle, and Jelani Jenkins is playing at a Pro Bowl level. The LB unit has a total of ten missed tackles all year! The whole MIA defense is smart, fast, versatile, and swarming - and well coached. Denver has crumbled against strong Dlines able to bring pressure with just four. Manning cannot rifle passes into tight windows, instead relying on timing routes. Jam the receivers and force Manning to throw before he wants. He has shown poor accuracy these past few weeks under these situations, throwing two interceptions in each of the last three games. If the rush has an impact, Manning has been dreadful when forced to throw passes between 11-20 yards (58/100 417 53% 6/7 75.3). Miami's pass defense, allowing only 59% completion (#4) and 77.9 rating (#3), has the talent to do this.

    Cam Wake needs to have a big game against a RT position that has been a revolving door. However the struggles of the Denver Oline are overrated in pass protection, as they only have allowed 11 sacks (#1). Luckily, you don't need to sack Peyton to rattle him. He will throw the ball when hurried in generous acts of self-preservation. The interior DLine is what really needs to show up this week, providing pressure up the middle. While talented at pushing pockets back, Miami's DTs have combined for only 6 sacks and 6 hurries this season. Denver's Oline really struggles in run blocking, averaging only 3.7 yards/carry and 89.9 yards/game. (That has decreased to 2.7 y/c over the last three games.) It doesn't help that they only run 37% of the time (second least); last week they only attempted nine rushes. CJ Anderson is a talented runner that has the wiggle to make people miss if he's given the opportunity. Miami's defense can stop the run, and is one of the best at covering screens and passes in the flat; the closer this game is played at the LOS, the better their chances.

    Denver's defensive line, however, is ranked even higher than the Fins'. With respect to Manning's deep ball, it is the strength of their team, especially against the run. Ranked #2 allowing 73.4 yards/game and 3.3 yards/carry, they benefit from the fewest rushing attempts against in the NFL at 22 per game. Don't let that fool you into dismissing their talent. They are the NFL's best power run defending team, stopping 89% of rushes on 3rd/4th & short, rushes needing 2> yards, and goal line situations. (Miami's Oline is ranked #27 in those power situations, so don't expect much success.) They also stuff 12.2% of rushes for zero or negative gains (#4), and are #1 in preventing 10+ yard runs. (The Dolphins are a boom-or-bust running team, near the tops in stuffed runs (5th-worst) and 10+ yard runs (7th-best).) Football Outsiders ranks the Denver DLine #1 in the open field and #2 in the second level. (The second level should be a fun contest as Miami's Oline is ranked fifth-best.) Denver's also #1 in defending runs around the left end and over the right tackle, and #2 around the right end. There's no running to the outside against them. If we have any chance it's running down the middle, where they are merely ranked #7. That just happens to be our strength, as we are ranked #3 rushing inside. Denver is awesome in pursuit and will tackle you if you try to run by them, so Miller and Williams need to be patient this week and wait for their blocks to develop. Run decisively through whatever holes you find because any hesitation will get you tackled. The ace in the hole may be the read option. Denver faced top five rushing attacks three times this season: they suffocated the Jets, but surrendered 133 rushing yards to KC and 129 to SEA. The commonality in those two games was a weakness against a mobile QB; Alex Smith ran for 9/40 and Russell Wilson 5/42. Tannehill's legs should have a big impact in this gameplan.

    While Peyton has posted an 85.1 rating over the last three games, Ryan Tannehill has an 106.4 rating, completing 72.6% of his passes. Over the past five, Ryan's also completing 70%, and his 104.1 also leads Peyton's 102.3. If Tannehill can outplay - or keep pace with - Manning, the Dolphins should be able to walk out of Mile High victorious. Aside from mobile QBs, the only other true weakness in the Denver defense is guarding tight ends; over the last four games, they've allowed 47 receptions and 4 TDs to the position. If Charles Clay cannot play, it will be a huge blow. Can Gator pick up the slack?

    The biggest concern for the Dolphins will be Ja'Waun James and Dallas Thomas against Von Miller and Demarcus Ware. While they held their own last week against a fierce Buffalo front, expecting the same in a hostile stadium and weather is foolish from two youngsters playing out of position. Dion Sims will have to help a lot. Employ a lot out of moving pockets. Have Tannehill throw on a lot of roll-outs. Yards won't be easy, and Ryan will once again be under constant pressure. More than ever, he needs to throw the ball away if under duress this week because escaping will be nearly impossible (esp up the middle). Expect the same short passing game they've perfected; quick outs and screens are your best best. While the Denver Oline is getting all the grief, expect Miami's to have the worse day. But it seems like we are saying this every week now, and Miami is becoming adept at solving DLine riddles. One of the strengths of this team has been its ability to improve.

    Other Storylines All the sophomores, not just Thomas, are going to relied upon this weekend. Dallas, Sims, Jenkins, Jordan, and Sturgis, after a maligned rookie campaign, have the team on their shoulders now. The biggest spotlight, however, may be on Jamar Taylor. He played well last week, but you know Peyton is going to target him all day. He needs to pick up where he left off, and avoid DPIs at all costs. If Jamar and Dallas have good games, we win. These teams tell the tale of two Redzones. Miami is #1 in the NFL with 4.9 trips into the redzone a game, while Denver is #1 with 77% scoring touchdowns. (For example, while Manning is the best redzone QB, he had zero RZ trips last week.) Thus they are averaging about the same redzone touchdowns a game. (However, DEN did force five STL field goals last week.) The Special Teams units are the weakest links on both teams. Crazy streak. Miami had another drive start in the opponents' redzone against Buffalo (on downs), bringing it's total to 12 (#1 by a mile - #2 is 6). Adding two pick-sixes to make the total 14, that equals amount of three-and-outs the dolphins have had this season. Quarter-by-quarter. Denver has been terrible in the first quarter lately, scoring 0-7-3-0 in the past four games. Both teams come to life in the third, MIA #1 and DEN #3 in scoring. Playing from behind, Manning's rating drops from 125.1 when winning to 89.6 when trailing; Tannehill's drops from 95.1 to 79.7. When tied, Manning is 118.0 and Tannehill is 123.5. Penalties. Denver is the most penalized team in the NFL, while Miami is the third least. In a defensive battle, the hidden yardage of penalties and turnovers may prove the difference. Close Game? Neither team has won a close game; the smallest margin of victory has been Denver by 7 against SD and Indy. In fact, despite their 13 combined wins, neither team has a game-winning drive or fourth quarter comeback to their credit.

    Prediction. The defensive lines could dominate this game. Both defenses are tied for #1 allowing only 4.7 yards/play, and tied at #1 allowing 6.1 yards/pass attempt. Over the past few weeks, Miami has shown the ability to overcome those odds, while Denver has really struggled. Actually, Miami has improved during its recent three game stretch against top ten defenses. The Dolphins also come into the game more adept than the Broncos at 5+ minute and 10+ play drives.The cold and forecast may benefit Ryan's lasers over Peyton's rainbows, too. Expect the Broncos to continue limping into this game and Peyton to continue looking like a 38 year old out there. If it can defend the deep ball and produce yards out of the read option, Miami will walk away with the best conference record in the AFC and legitimately in the conversation as a top five team.
    MIA 23 DEN 20
     
  2. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

    10,823
    2,214
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Wonder if Demaryius Thomas will play if he is in it'll be that much harder to keep Manning at bay.
     
  3. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,651
    67,543
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    I have Demaryious Thomas and Calvin as neck and neck, as the best in the game, he plays with defenders like their little kids..we've shown good ability to keep the yac at the minimum on the short stuff and limit chunk plays, but this guy is a different animal, the speed, the size, the pure strength is just awesome..our boy grimes is playing at the highest level right now, I think his game gives us our only chance, some physical corner who likes to play man corner thomas will just destroy, measuring this player with a bit of a distance and pouncing like grimes does is a good way to play him..

    Looks like Julius Thomas is doubtful..

    I heard today this comment, "will the Dolphins provide a good test for the Broncos"

    Man if I heard that sh$$ I would be pissed.
     
  4. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,651
    67,543
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    I'm confused X, what do you mean, D Thomas is fine
     
  5. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    2,673
    4,445
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    Another week, another top defense. Jeese, it seems like every week we are playing a top ten defense. First, BUF, KC, JAX, DET, and now Den. Next week, the jets have the #4 rush defense, the following week the Ravens have the #4 overall defense, and then the Vikings have the #8 passing defense. Jeese, are the Patriots the worst defense we play all year? There are teams with crappy defenses, right? Somewhere?

    The fact that our offense has progressed so much this year against quality opponents really is a testament to their improvement.
     
  6. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

    6,771
    1,680
    113
    Mar 15, 2009
    Alabama
    The Rams took care of business and we definitely have a better pass rush. There is only 2 teams with more sacks than ours. What compliments a great pass rush is a great secondary and we happen to be ranked the 2nd best pass defense in the NFL. The biggest question for me is how we we handle the Bronco's pass rush? I've been pleasantly surprised with our O-line this year. Sure there is room for improvement, but I'm not scared.

    KJ, great thread as usual. I hope the Dolphins take your advice and run up the middle, I know this forum isn't a big fan of Daniel Thomas, but I believe he is better at that so I hope we utilize him in this game. I also hope to see a heavy dose of Charles Clay and Dion Sims, and a mobile Tannehill.
    KJ, you mentioned Gator. Who the hell is that? Is that a nickname I am not aware of? I'm guessing it is someone on our team from the Florida Gators, but I don't follow college football.

    I will figure this game out after watching one or 2 drives in the first quarter. Do we have an answer for their pass rush? I'm counting on you Mr. Lazor. I know they don't have an answer for our pass rush, it's as simple as that. And I have confidence in our half time adjustments if it comes to that as long as we don't get blown out in the first half.
     
  7. Alex13

    Alex13 Tua Time !!! Club Member

    25,809
    39,060
    113
    Dec 21, 2007
    Berlin,Germany
    he confused him with Julius Thomas
     
  8. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

    7,760
    3,486
    113
    Sep 4, 2010
    Maui, Hawaii
    The Broncos are coming off three weeks on the road. They lost two of those games, but they are a much different team on their home field.

    While I expect the Dolphins to put up a good fight, I just don't think they will be able to hand the Broncos their third defeat in the past four weeks.

    My prediction: Broncos 31- Dolphins 17.
     
  9. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    9,297
    2,738
    113
    Aug 26, 2014
    Vero Beach, FL
    Ricky, Gator Hoskins is our 3rd string TE from Marshall University. He led the country in scoring TD's for TE in the country last year. Built like Charles Clay with about the same speed. He knows how to get the ball i to the endzone for 6. LET'S GO FINS ! ! !
     
    RickyNeverInhaled likes this.
  10. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    9,297
    2,738
    113
    Aug 26, 2014
    Vero Beach, FL
    There you go again JW....just about every game you pick us to lose....why?. Also, after we beat the Broncos are you going to start believing and pick the Fins to beat the hated Jets? ALL RIGHT MIAMI !!! LET'S win this one for Mad Dog Mandich !!! May you RIP Brother! ! ! LET'S GO FINS !!!
     
  11. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    9,297
    2,738
    113
    Aug 26, 2014
    Vero Beach, FL
    Off topic but why do I have to keep logging into website?
     
  12. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    9,297
    2,738
    113
    Aug 26, 2014
    Vero Beach, FL
    Great write up as usual KJ. Miami Wins on Sunday !
     
  13. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

    6,771
    1,680
    113
    Mar 15, 2009
    Alabama
    I only have that problem on my phone.
     
  14. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    9,297
    2,738
    113
    Aug 26, 2014
    Vero Beach, FL
    Maybe that explains it. I always use my phone because my PC is down and I need to get it fixed. Maybe I need to clear my cache and it will work better. Thank you. !!!!
     
  15. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

    7,760
    3,486
    113
    Sep 4, 2010
    Maui, Hawaii
    Actually I have only predicted the Dolphins would lose in four previous games this season and I picked them to win in their other six games.

    I was wrong in predicting them to lose to the Patriots and Bears. I was also wrong in predicting they would beat the Lions and the Chiefs. Otherwise my predictions in the other six games were correct. I predicted losses to the Packers and the Bills, when the Dolphins played them in Buffalo. I predicted victories over the Bills in Miami, the Chargers, Jaguars, and the Raiders.

    So I really don't see that I have picked against the Dolphins , "almost every game", as you suggest. While I predicted before the season started that I thought the Dolphins would be 8-8 this season. I also stated a few weeks ago that the team was more talented than I thought they would be prior to the start of the season.

    I feel they have a solid chance of being a playoff team, but I have felt all along that they would probably lose to the Broncos and to the Patriots later in the season. Of course I want them to win, but that doesn't change the fact that I feel the Broncos will find a way to win tomorrow. Out of ten predictions so far this season I have been wrong 4 times and hopefully I'll be wrong tomorrow.

    As far as the games against the Jets are concerned. I believe the Dolphins have more talent on their roster than the Jets and should be able to win both those games. Of course I also felt the Dolphins were the better team last year and we all remember what happened when the playoffs were on the line and the Jets played the Dolphins in Miami late in the year. When it comes to the Dolphins and Jets playing one another, records mean absolutely nothing. So while I would expect the Dolphins to win both games against the Jets this year, a loss to the Jets in one of those games certainly wouldn't be a major surprise IMO.

    Right now I think the Dolphins will finish the season 9-7 and just miss the playoffs. If as you suggest, the Dolphins do beat the Broncos, that will make it easier to believe this team can actually make the playoffs this year.
     
    RickyNeverInhaled likes this.
  16. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

    6,771
    1,680
    113
    Mar 15, 2009
    Alabama
    I can't fault you for any of that. But I look forward to you being on the positive band wagon when we beat Denver.
     
    jw3102 likes this.
  17. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    9,297
    2,738
    113
    Aug 26, 2014
    Vero Beach, FL
    LOL...O.K. I hope you are wrong tomorrow and @ New England and hoping we end up 12-4. That would be sooooo nice. I apologize for being wrong about you it just seemed that way to me.m Have a great day in beautiful Hawaii...it is nasty along the coast down here today
     
    jw3102 likes this.
  18. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

    7,760
    3,486
    113
    Sep 4, 2010
    Maui, Hawaii
    No apologies needed. I realize that many people on here think that I am negative toward the Dolphins because I sometimes pick against them in a game. Obviously I want them to win every game they play, but that doesn't prevent me from posting my prediction before the game is played. Picking against the Dolphins doesn't mean I don't want them to win, because nothing would make me happier tomorrow than to have the Dolphins go into Mile High stadium and pull the upset.

    I'll be sitting on the couch at 11:30 am tomorrow, rooting for the Dolphins and hoping my prediction doesn't pan out.

    Sorry to read that the weather is nasty for you today, but I hope you have a wonderful day today and tomorrow you can come on this forum and tell me my prediction of a Broncos win was completely wrong.
     
  19. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    2,673
    4,445
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    Usually I think you bring up good points.

    But you're totally wrong about tomorrow; the game starts at 4:25 pm. (Lol, that's a joke.)
     
  20. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

    7,760
    3,486
    113
    Sep 4, 2010
    Maui, Hawaii
    I stand corrected, the game starts here in Maui at 11:25 am, instead of 11:30 am as I stated earlier. So I guess I'll have to hit the couch five minutes earlier than anticipated. no problem. :up:
     
  21. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    2,673
    4,445
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    (D'oh! Haha, that's what I get for trying to be a smart aleck. )

    But if I have your attention, as an erudite fan, how would you compare this team to its predecessors?

    It's definitely the best of the last ten or so years. This team would beat 2008's. Tannehill has been outplaying Pennington over the last seven games.

    You'd have to go back to JT/Zach/Ricky/Wannstadt I think - maybe that year when JT and Williams both led the league. However, Dave's best team was probably his first in 2000: 11-5, third best defense, lost in the divisional round - but I'd still probably take a Tannehill-led team with this defense over that Fiedler-led one. Perhaps you'd have to go all the way back to Jimmy and Marino? This team could probably beat some of those teams too.

    Honestly, we won't know until the season ends, but it's always fun to conjecture.
     
  22. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    9,297
    2,738
    113
    Aug 26, 2014
    Vero Beach, FL
    Ok..I hope that I get to do that JW...I have never been to Hawaii..hope to make it one day.
     
  23. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    2,673
    4,445
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    Another interesting stat, over the past three weeks, Manning has had 29 passes defensed (12-9-8) and that equals the amount over his first seven games. His accuracy has suffered recently, and he is seeing a lot of balls tipped at the line of scrimmage.
     
  24. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

    52,652
    25,565
    113
    Nov 13, 2009
    Another amazing writeup, keith.

    Sent from my Transformer TF101 using Tapatalk 4
     
  25. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    8,215
    1,896
    113
    Mar 10, 2013
    Buckeye Land
    Will we have a LaMichael sighting this week?
     
  26. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    2,673
    4,445
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    Another interesting storyline: who will have a better game, Wes Welker or Samson Satele? We traded Welker away for a second round pick pick that we used to draft Satele. It's a small world sometimes.
     
  27. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

    7,760
    3,486
    113
    Sep 4, 2010
    Maui, Hawaii
    Sorry I didn't respond yesterday, but we had some visitors come for the weekend and I was driving them around the island most of yesterday and didn't get a chance to get on the computer again until this morning.

    As far as how I feel this team compares to the previous Dolphin teams in recent years. Like you, I believe this team probably has the most talent throughout the entire roster it has had since the Wannstedt years.

    At this point, until Tannehill actually leads this team to the playoffs, it is hard to say that he is a better NFL QB than Pennington or even Fiedler. I certainly think he has the ability to exceed both these former QB's in his career, but both those QB's led their respective teams to the playoffs and Tannehill has yet to do so.

    In fact Pennington did it with a team that even you admit wasn't as talented as this years Dolphin team. So I will continue to hold my judgement regarding Tannehill until I see how the next six games play out.

    To me, this season will only be considered a successful season if the Dolphins win at least 10 games. That still may not be enough for them to make the playoffs in the AFC this year, but it will at least show that they are headed in the right direction. Even though I presently feel they will likely end the season 9-7, I certainly feel they have the talent to get to 10 wins. If they can win today or against the Patriots later in the year, they will have a solid chance to match the 11-5 record of the 2008 Dolphins.

    As I have stated previously, I think they will probably lose today and to the Patriots and go 3-1 in their games against the Jets (twice), Ravens, and Vikings.

    Hopefully you will be able to come on here after today's game or after the season and tell me I was wrong again. It certainly won't hurt my feelings in the least.

    Enjoy the game today and while I may not think they will win right now, I assure you I will be cheering them on and hoping they stun the NFL with a victory over the Broncos in Mile High Stadium.
     

Share This Page