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Ryan Tannehill 21-22 as a starter

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by PhinsMondayNitro, Nov 30, 2014.

  1. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Oh.. I def have tried to become more patient with him. I think it finally sunk in that he really wasn't being a hater.. His language is just numbers... Math.. Etc. It's like talking football with Stephen Hawkins.
     
  2. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    It's not necessarily the numbers that take it into account, it is the person analyzing the numbers. And he may then resort to numbers that help do that. For example, QB X may have better stats than QB Y. But that might be largely explained by the fact that QB Y was sacked and pressured twice as frequently and other QBs on QB Y's team were sacked or pressured twice as much as QB Y. It may also be that QB X plays for a coach or in a system where the last 7 QB before him all had incredible success and that QB X was notably less productive than all of them. It might also be that QB Y's receivers dropped many more passes than QB X's. Or it may be that defenders dropped 15 would-be interceptions by QB X but caught every one thrown by QB Y. Or maybe QB X had more passing TDs because his team had many more red zone trips due to their defense's league leading forced trunover numbers and excellent average starting field position. Or simply because they threw the ball twice as much in the red zone as QB X's team. Etc. There are a lot of stats and numbers that can help understand other ones.
     
  3. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    Number of games played.
    Number of starts.
    Number of snaps.
    Etc.
     
  4. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    I think.. Purely from a Math or science viewpoint.. You are 100 percent correct.. Or let me say.. Will be correct in the future. We are getting so adept at data collection.. And even more then that.. Adept at using massive amounts of data.. That you will at some point literally have a data point that reflects every imaginable variable. We are really just on the cusp of that though I think.
     
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  5. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    None of that quantifies Tannehill's experience. At least not relative to making predictions. Statistics tell us what happened. They don't tell us how or why.
     
  6. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    True. Massive strides have been made in this regard in just the last few years. The data being generated for basketball is pretty unbelievable. And I'm sure football isn't going to be that far behind.
     
  7. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    Of course those are measures of his experience. And of course they can be used to make predictions. Will those predictions be 100% correct every time? No. Because nobody can predict the future with absolute certainty. But they will very likely be more accurate and reliable than the unsupported opinions of some middle-aged insurance salesman on a message board who watches a few hours of football a week.

    Not sure anyone has claimed that statistics will definitively tell how or why something happened.
     
  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    But that's the problem. Looking at stats from Tannehill's first two years, he said that there was tons of data to support what he was saying. Unfortunately, Tannehill's first two years were pretty poor examples of what he should have for supporting cast for his career. Second year, especially. To draw any conclusions based on data from those years seems especially foolish.
     
  9. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    I don't agree with that at all. It wasn't an awesome supporting cast, but it certainly wasn't unusually bad either. There were definitely some OL issues, but he had a decent group of WR/TEs and a running game that wasn't especially terrible.
     
  10. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Well.. Especially since they don't really translate very well to future development. Look at the other QB who were supposedly coveted after two years.. RG3..Cam Newton..Ckap.. All have really regressed.. Meanwhile RT17 continues to improve. So.. Does that make Tannehill super rare? or that it's just dumb to use stats to show a QB development so soon?
     
  11. Fins Hipster

    Fins Hipster Banned

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    The interesting thing about this "stats" discussion is that it's happening in the context of a group of people who would all rather see one thing happen than another. We would all rather see the Dolphins win than the Dolphins lose. In that context, there is an inherent bias to perceive things a certain way -- the way that's consistent with the Dolphins' success. In that context people need to use objective measures (statistics) to check and balance their perceptions in my opinion. Now, if all anyone wants to do is "rah rah" and no analysis of the team, then that's a different story. In that scenario there is no check and balance of perceptions needed, because nobody cares whether they're perceiving the team accurately. They're simply rooting for it. And that's fine too.
     
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  12. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Laughable. Bess/Binns/Hartline/Matthews/Moore at receiver, Fasano/Egnew at tight end. Bush was a good back. Second year, Tannehill had an historically bad line.

    These are the issues that we run into. People throw out stats, others refute those stats, and say Look at the situation, and then people try to refute that with some ridiculous notion that Tannehill somehow didn't really have it that bad his first two years.

    Newsflash: he did. Those teams were not very good, especially considering we were starting a very raw prospect at QB.
     
  13. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    There is always going to be a range of performance and it is influenced by many factors. There are some other guys who were pretty coveted early who haven't regressed (Luck, Wilson, etc.). And I'm not sure how much of what we've seen with Newton, RG3 or Ckap is really "regression" as opposed to a change in circumstances and some degree of normal and expected fluctuation.
     
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  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Hipster, I think that a certain segment of posters really believes that Tannehill is bad, and say that any evidence to the contrary is simply an outlier, or aberration. I think that most who have defended Tannehill, myself included, don't think that Tannehill is an elite QB, but do think that he is better than certain statistics might say he is, and definitely better than certain posters say he is, and definitely not worthy of the accusations thrown his way that most of our problems have been his fault. We just end up being viewed as homers because we're constantly debating with the most negative views of Tannehill.
     
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  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Wilson certainly regressed when asked to actually stay in a pocket and throw his team to victory.

    RGIII and CKap most certainly have regressed, or, rather, been exposed add not being as good as some thought.
     
  16. jcliving

    jcliving Active Member

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    Actually, he is 22-22.
     
  17. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    It wasn't a real strong receiving corps his first year, but I personally think receiving is a little overrated by many. Receiver production is much more a function of the QB and system than the passing stats are a function of the WRs. That's why Eric Decker is a was an (almost) 1300 receiver in Denver but on pace to be a 600-700 yd guy with the Jets, while ESanders goes from being a 600-700 yd guy in Pitt to a probabl 1500 yd guy in Denver. And he had a pretty good running game that first year. Not great surrounding talent, but not terrible either. Last year, he had pretty good receivers. The line struggled and that is a factor to take into account. But it's not like there has never been another QB with comparable surrounding talent or pass protection. Russell Wilson has had similarly poor pass blocking and weak WRs but has done quite nicely.

    I know you have created this notion in your mind that there are a bunch of people who are citing isolated stats and claiming it is conclusive as a predictor of future performance. I rarely, if ever, see that. You may see someone say the odds of a player developing from a certain level to an elite level aren't great based on stats and other players, but I see nothing wrong with that.
     
  18. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    Are you are basing that on hours and hours of film study, breaking down play after play from this year and comparing it to similar situations in prior years, with full knowledge of all of the receivers' routes and the QB's progressions? Do you have a vault of coaches tape from prior years with which to do that, plus untold hours of free time, to painstakingly perform that analysis (presumably not only for those 3 QBs, but all/most other QBs in the league)?

    Or are you looking at their stats and concluding that they aren't playing as well as they did in the past?
     
  19. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Clearly, I haven't watched hours and hours of film. However, if you have, and have stats to prove that Kap is doing exactly what he's always done, it's other parts of his team letting him down, then I'll acquiesce. However, when I've watched him, and the others play, I don't see QBs playing at the levels they were last year or the year before.

    Also, you're trying to say that if I use stats to form an opinion, then I'm being hypocritical. Difference is, I'm not staying that this guys can't get back to where they were, just that they're not at that level currently.
     
  20. Fineas

    Fineas Club Member Luxury Box

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    No, I haven't watched hours and hours of film of those guys. I'm not sure why the burden is on me to prove they are doing the same thing as before, as opposed to being on you to show that they aren't. After all it was you who stayed with certainty that they have regressed. The states don't really suggest major regression. For the most part they show relatively small deviation in one or two of the components that make up passer rating. And I'm not sure those deviations are even statistically significant and even if they are they may be explained by external factors such as level of competition, strength of the running game, etc.

    Do I think it is a little ironic/hypocritical that you are basing your conclusion as to regression largely on stats? Yes. That you are using the stats to show how they have played as opposed to how they will play is of little consequence. That is what most people who use stats use them for. And while what has happened in the past is not perfectly predictive of what will happen in the future, it is pretty ridiculous to even try to predict the future without at least considering what has happened in the past.



    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  21. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    So.. Whats the check and balance for statistics?
     
  22. JMHPhin

    JMHPhin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I could give a shiate less if he was banned or not honestly. I can ignore those I dont want to read
     
  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It's not in the least hypocritical, given the position I've stated on stats. But, it does show that you're not really reading anything I'm writing. I've stated numerous times, my issue wasn't with him using stats, it was using stats to predict, and not even acknowledging that his statistics were flawed in many ways. Nowhere have I ever stated that no one should look at statistics to see where someone is currently, nor have I stated that you can't look at stats and see if someone is doing better or worse than they did previously. What I HAVE said is that just because stats may say they're playing worse, it doesn't necessarily mean that is the fault of, in this case, the QB. It might be, or it might not.

    I kind of think it's ridiculous to try to predict the future using anything.
     
  24. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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  25. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    yeah i used to tell him about variables all the time..but he still cross examined everything..lol
     
  26. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    oh most definitely, i was talking abut the tannehill threads, shoot, first couple years he didn't even talk about stats, had many engaging conversations about life as well..im telling ya I respected the man.
     
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  27. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    yup..thats the key and where someone like Res takes it personal, he wasn't hating, just doing what his mind made him do, i appreciated your effort but the witch hunt was on as soon as they found out.

    and those who did, cool, you casted out a guy who truly loves the dolphins.
     
  28. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    wilson didn't forget how to play football..circumstances change from year to year that can affect the dynamics of a football team, your analysis and first sentence above about wilson scares me now.

    there is a serious problem going on, for example, some folks tell me I talk about the read option too much, well, here's the thing, I talk about it because i find myself to be the only one who truly believes in it and folks around here continue to tell me its a fad, and how the game must be played from the pocket, so I continue to tell them they better check themselves, because they're only digging themselves deeper, and those are the ones I like to stick it right back at them..

    so in honor of the thread and getting back on topic..if anyone wants to admit they were wrong about the read option, feel free to come clean...its here to stay, and completely befuddles prof coaches..and...is only scratching the surface.

    and p.s..our own qb is wrecking fools out of it...lol
     
  29. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Charles Manson did what his mind told him to do as well.
     
  30. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I don't respect anyone that can't admit they were wrong. He never did.
     
  31. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Not sure who everybody is talking about that got banned but this reply right here is example of what is wrong with this site.Pointless reply trying to piss off Op.
     
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  32. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Whoa, whoa, whoa. I didn't take anything "personal." I never asked for him to be banned, I never reported any posts. I get that he was a stat guy, but he needs to realize that statistics don't tell the whole story. He needs to temper his use of stats, and stop using them as be-all end-all of anything. I wouldn't have an issue with him being allowed to post here, however, he would have to realize that posting the way he did, with a seeming disregard for anything that said the opposite of his stats, is going to bother people. One can be bothered without it being personal. If you think that anything on this site causes me to think about it after I leave this site, you're sorely mistaken.
     
  33. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Wilson may not have forgotten how to play football, however, there have been plenty of people questioning his ability to run a normal offense, that doesn't cut the field in half on every play. Here's the difference between Shou and me, I wouldn't say that based on somethings this season that Wilson would not be able to learn to run that offense. I think that the statistics just show that even Wilson/CKap/RGIII struggle when the situation around them isn't exactly right...which strangely enough, is EXACTLY what I, and others, have been saying about Tannehill ALL ALONG.
     
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  34. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    theres no need to use the term normal offense in conjunction with a certain skill set..the game can be controlled by the playmaker, improviser and sufficient pocket thrower..

    russell wilson is the worst nightmare for offensive coordinators, they hate having to defend this special skill set..

    Kaepernik isn't even running read option anymore..its ridiculous, and befuddling, and predictable as to why its hurting his game.

    trent differ who I have respect for in terms of analysis..agrees with me...he says the read option is here to stay, is a brilliant formation, and people better get on the train, and many coaches have told him they can't stand trying to defend the read option, it completely limits what they can call if the qb can execute correctly..
     
  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I respect your opinion on read option, and I'm not saying your wrong. However, down by 7 with under two minutes, or down by 21 in the 3rd, can you really keep running a read option offense? I wouldn't think so, I would think you'd have to go a traditional passing type offense. Wilson hasn't shown to be particularly successful at that. That being said, that is my opinion, and I don't watch a ton of Seahawks games, so I could be wrong, but that has been my impression. I also wonder if the read option could be so successful, and so many colleges have run it, why it wasn't heavily used in the NFL. Not saying your wrong, but it seems strange that coaches would come up through college using it, and then abandon it at the NFL level, simply because it wasn't used. I kind of wonder if it will go the way of the Wildcat.
     
  36. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    By the way, I don't mean anything demeaning when I say "normal offense." But, the read option is certainly not the "normal" offense that was employed in the NFL, so I can differentiate between them by saying that. Not trying to say that one is necessarily better than the other.
     
  37. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Statistically, Wilson has been nearly as effective this season as he was in his first two years. Even Kaepernick was something like a 90 rated passer last season, and hes around 88 this year. There really hasn't been much regression in their play. RG3 has regressed, but there are a lot of extraneous factors to consider in his case, and its likely his one good season was an aberration.
     
  38. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Im not saying run read option in a two minute setting, not sure where you got that from, what I am saying read option aside, and what your referring to here in this post when it comes to 2 min offense, is that I want russell wilson as my qb in a two minute situation to win the game, and it has nothing to do with the pocket..

    and I would bet the stats would back up my assertions..
     
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  39. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    agreed..and the fact that the niners are not even utilizing the skill set of their qb is borderline mind boggling...but that team has serious locker room front office issues, the coaches heart simple cannot be pure at this point..

    Russell wilson has beast and thats it to get it done..so he's gonna do it any way he can..not just from the pocket..
     
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  40. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    when you said normal i thought you meant proset
     

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