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538 has us pegged as the week's most important game, yet again

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Unlucky 13, Dec 3, 2014.

  1. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nfl-week-14-playoff-implications-the-chargers-have-a-pulse/

    According to their system, the winner of the Dolphins vs Ravens game will come out of it with a 70% or so chance of making the playoffs. The loser goes home with less than a 20% chance. 55% swing for us, 51% for them.

    A few people have been throwing around (misusing) the term "must win game" all season and it rubs me the wrong way. THIS is a must win game. Four weeks to go, and if we lose, we likely miss the playoffs even with a 10-6 record. Most important regular season game we'll play this season.

    The system says we can also pick up another 8 percentage points if all the other games go our way too, putting us at nearly 80% to get in if we win the game. HUGE.
     
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  2. Fins Hipster

    Fins Hipster Banned

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    If you ever want an accurate appraisal of what the team is made of, this will be it.
     
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  3. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    I hope this translate to me getting to see the Dolphins on local tv in Alabama.
     
  4. GridIronKing34

    GridIronKing34 Silently Judging You

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    Spoiler alert: probably not.
     
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  5. Jt0323

    Jt0323 Fins Up! Luxury Box

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    Rather struggle against the Jets then the Ravens. Fins up!
     
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  6. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    If you live near the coast, then probably. If not, then no. Amazingly, its not on my locals either, and almost every Ravens game is. I have Sunday Ticket, so thats actually a good thing for me or else I'd be pissed.
     
  7. mnfinfan

    mnfinfan Active Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Only if you are in the part of Alabama on the Northern Florida border, otherwise you get to enjoy Pitt vs cinci
     
  8. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    My private message inbox is available to anyone that has solutions to this problem. :knucks:
     
  9. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Are you over 21? I'd head to a sports bar. Thats what I did from 2000-2004.
     
  10. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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  11. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    I did that for the first Bills game, I spent 50 bucks and was pissed about the game. I would rather use 50 bucks for Christmas. I think I might be able to watch the game on my phone with my brother's directv info, I did that with my Father in the past but he no longer has the Sunday ticket, but my brother does. I need to get it for myself, but these are rough financial times for me.
    This is a must watch game so I will figure something out. Worst case scenario is I will stay away from this place, cut off all comunication and wait for the replay on NFL Network.

    Sorry the the OP, I didn't mean to hi-jack this thread. I knew this game was very important, but it is nice to see the statistics of playoff probability prove that point. I am so glad this is a home game, we definitely need that advantage in a game like this.
     
  12. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    Either preload or just buy one drink and nurse it til halftime. Buy another second half. Eat before you go.
     
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  13. unluckyluciano

    unluckyluciano For My Hero JetsSuck

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    yeah don't ever eat at a bar unless they have football specials haha. pre game, drink cheap beer. What I do when I go to a bar. End up using like 20 dollars if even that.
     
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  14. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I get that. Back then I'd buy a burger and fries with an ice tea, and just get free refills on the tea for three hours. I was poor, so $10/week to watch the game was the extent of my budget.
     
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  15. GreysonWinfield

    GreysonWinfield Release The Hounds

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    Could be the longest playoff stretch in franchise history starting this weekend.
     
  16. thisperishedmin

    thisperishedmin Well-Known Member

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    check your PM's ricky. first Christmas present I've sent this season. Getting in the spirit now haha
     
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  17. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Not only is this the most important game of the week regarding playoff ramifications according to 538, NFLPickWatch is claiming this is the closest game of the week to call. Although it is still early in the week, 54% of prognosticators are picking Miami to win - the slimmest margin of all contests.

    http://nflpickwatch.com
     
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  18. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    I imagine that the Dolphins were a much higher percentage pick to make the playoffs with two games to play last year. Yet when the regular season ended, they were sitting at home with the other 19 NFL teams which failed to make the playoffs.

    I agree that this weeks game is a must win game if the Dolphins expect to have a chance to make the playoffs. Especially since I don't see them beating the Patriots in New England the following week.

    I figure it is going to take at least 10 wins to make the playoffs this year. So the Dolphins have at least 3 MUST win games in the next four weeks. The game this week against the Ravens is merely the first of these must win games. Lose this week and the Dolphins will likely be sitting at home again with the other 19 teams which failed to make the playoffs this year.
     
  19. shadokp

    shadokp Active Member

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    I am in that little yellow spot in New England that will have the pleasure of enjoying the Jets and Minnesota. Lucky me.

    KP
     
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  20. TiP54

    TiP54 Bad Reputation

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    You telling me Northern Florida isn't South Alabama? Ha!
     
  21. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    I cant believe im stuck with the same game. How do they get featured with those records? Ridiculous. The playoffs are as tight as can be, but let's show these two off teams.
     
  22. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I hope so for you my Dolfan Brother !
     
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  23. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That's what I've been doing for two years. Actually has worked out pretty well; the guy I went to the Detroit game w/ I met there. He even gave me some Dolphin gear. :up:
     
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  24. If the dolphins win out they are guaranteed a spot. If not they are going to need some help. For instance if Cindy beats Pittsburgh it gives them some breathing room.

    Whats funny about that game is if Pitt does win and new England drops 2 one to us that would give us the division and eliminate them from the playoffs completely if the right teams keep winning.

    When was the last time they completely missed the playoffs. I would enjoy that almost as much as the dolphins being in it.
     
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  25. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    2008, the last time we made it. They were eliminated on tiebreakers despite going 11-5.
     
  26. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Back in the day...late seventies before their was Satellite dish TV we lived in A very small town in Florida called Fellsmere. Of course, this was before the very small town had cablevision so on Sundays my wife and I would jump in the car and drive North out of our town to a town called Melbourne. This was about 30 miles from home so we would head into the. Mall strait for Sears where I would watch the Dolphins in Sears' TV Dept. With usually 4 or 5 other Dolfans.. I did this for about 5 years and it worked for my wife as well cause she Loves to Shop ! ! !
     
  27. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Come on y'all....I am STILL calling it OURS!! That's right , AFC EAST is ours....we beat the Ravens and the Chargers beat the Pats then we go into NE and whoop their rear - ends an we fly home with the Division lead just needing to stay focused and beat the Vikings and Jets at home to finish up. 11-5 and AFC CHAMPS. WE GOT THIS !
     

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