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Is the deep ball that important?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by speed, Dec 3, 2014.

  1. speed

    speed Banned

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    I just saw the league - wide completion percentage on deep passes, which is defined as plus 20 yards, is a robust 11.1%. So. Tannehill detractors complain about his deep ball, when it really appears that few QBs hit them with any consistency. Thought that was interesting.
     
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  2. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    This has been brought up several times, the people that hate Tannehill still start threads about him being unable to throw the deep ball. Some people can't be reasoned with, they've made up their minds despite the facts.
     
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  3. speed

    speed Banned

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    I knew that, but I didn't know that the average is 11.1%, that surprised me.
     
  4. Colmax

    Colmax Well-Known Member

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    Yes, the 'potential' for the completion of deeper routes is important.

    Complete a couple in a game and see how the defense reacts.
     
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  5. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Right, but if the average is 11%, then you're throwing 10 deep to get one. It's risk/reward, and we know how averse Philbin is to risk...he gets all queasy.
     
  6. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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  7. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    Chunk yardage is what it's all about, and deep ball is one exciting way to get it done. It's important.

    But in our system, since we run spread, QB will rarely have enough time. The system relies on YACs.

    Deep ball is more of a 2-wide alignment thing when you have 8 blocking and protecting the QB. We don't run that.
     
  8. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Tanny is the 9th best, when it comes to comp%, of passes thrown over 20 yards in the air.
     
  9. speed

    speed Banned

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    I still say YAC would help. Rodgers hit Jordy Nelson for a 10 yard pass, but he took it 50 yards for a TD. We don't do that.
     
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  10. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    Now you see, we have issues at WR.
     
  11. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    Deep ball = 9 route. At least on this message board.

    Yes, deep ball is important. Forcing Safeties back opens up the field for short passing, intermediate passing, and the run game.

    I wish we would attempt some 9 routes. Should throw one once s quarter with Wallace + pass int rules.
     
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  12. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I think Landry is our best bet for YAC. He has the best hands and runs the best routes. He's a star in the making.
     
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  13. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    Rodgers also throws an incredible 9 route . He did it a few times vs. NE and broke the game wide open as a result. Rodgers is the best deep ball passer since Marino. Best passer since Marino for that matter.
     
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  14. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    I think you guys are so caught up in defending Ryan that you become overly sensitive to this topic.

    I love LOVE how Ryan has turned it around the past couple months, he finally looks like a franchise QB. It's not a sin to point out that he has one of the best deep threats in football who has been behind secondaries for the past two years in Miami and not once, not even by accident has he led him or hit him in stride on a deep ball.

    It's frusterating for everyone involved and maybe the excuses have some validity......but cmon, not one GD time!!! Dolphins fans who love Ryan are still hoping its something he develops, and that's ok.
     
  15. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    I get ripped a new one and called nasty names every time I bring this up. But it's so true. The elite QB's do it all the time.
     
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  16. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I think when a fan of a team critiques that team the expectations become unattainable. According to PFF Tanny is 9th in the league in regards to deep passing. We, as fans, expect him to hit all WR's 100% of the time. When that doesn't happen we get jaded. The only people in our CONFERENCE, yes, the AFC, who have been better at the long ball that Tannehill are Peyton and Ryan. Not Brady. Not Luck. Not anyone else.
     
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  17. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    I think we should have more deep passes, but it upsets me when I hear Tannehill sucks at it, it's just not true. We should definitely do it more, but anyone that thinks the percentages should be better than 11% or close to that is just fooling themselves.
     
  18. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    that's not good enough needs to be #1 or he's trash.
     
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  19. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    You can honestly say with a straight face that Ryan Tannehill throws a better deep ball than Tom Brady or Andrew Luck? That's laughable. Seriously. WOW! Lol
     
  20. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Tells you all you need to know about "stats".
     
  21. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I can say it as well as I can say that 2+2=4. The numbers don't lie.
     
  22. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    That PFF chart backs up what many of us have said over the season, and goes directly against the Neanderthal "he sucks deep" crap that gets spewed repeatedly. It shows his accuracy on deep passes. It's not saying he completed over 40% of them, it's saying he's been accurate throwing on over 40%. Like has been stated, drops kill his completion %, but his accuracy isn't a big issue...it's top 10.
     
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  23. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    FWIW, the PFF chart is from Nov 2012 and entails all passes over 20 yards...
     
  24. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    Ummm... He's had 2 drops according to that "Chart" and only 3 TD's and pretty much the least amount of yards. I like Tannehill, but he has A LOT of work to do on his deep game. Especially with one of the fastest WR in the NFL getting open deep regularly. Big Ben didn't have much problems hitting Wallace in stride on deep throws.
     
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  25. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't believe that completion percentage really matters, what matters is the threat of the arm strength..check...the threat of the speed...check..and the threat of the boldness to attempt...uncheck..
     
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  26. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Just checked 2014 and he's over 30% on the season.

    Edit: and the updated chart said 3 drops for 2014, so ya, I'm not sure those stats are totally reliable for this year. I've counted several more than 3. Probably should be around 40%...biggest problem is they've attempted less deep passes than the rest of the league.
     
  27. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    Where do you see 2012? Because they have 2013 stats everywhere.
     
  28. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    If this is all a myth then someone please find me a clip of Ryan making an accurate throw downfield to #11. If you want to know what I'm talking about then youtube Mike Wallace highlights from Pittsburgh.

    If you want to use some numerical falsification to make you believe Ryan throws a better deep ball than Andrew Luck and Tom Brady??? Then you may aswell put me on ignore because I will continue to LOL at you.
     
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  29. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Any clips of this?
     
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  30. rtl1334

    rtl1334 New Member

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    One of the big reasons was that they used deep posts with Wallace in Pitt. Go look at the Wallace Pitt highlights on YouTube as well as the underthrow/overthrow video from last year. You'll notice that there's not a huge disparity in the quality of passes. If anything, a lot of T-Hill's passes are quite impressive.

    One thing with passes to Wallace...too often they are 50-55 yards in the air by the time they get to him. These are just such low percentage passes. Hell I don't even think Manning can throw 45 yards downfield.

    Look at this year...T-Hill hit Sims, Hartline and Wallace x2 on would be long TD passes. Three perfect passes were dropped and one Wallace couldn't get his second foot down.

    To me...T-Hill's deep ball is a nice narrative but a non-issue.
     
  31. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I'm on my iPad, but here's his numbers:

    34 attempts, 8 completions, 3 drops, 1 TD, 2 Int, attempted 8%, accuracy 32.4%.

    And those 3 drops are more than most, only 3 QBs had more dropped, and the had more attempts.
     
  32. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Follow the original link... it says sample data from 2012. Also if you look at the URL for the pic.

    URL - pff-pffanalysisltd12.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/ uploads/2012/11/sigdeepqb2.png
     
  33. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    Those are pretty horrible numbers. LOL
     
  34. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    The difference IMO is Ryan isn't very good at "airing it out" as opposed to throwing it. If you try to throw a frozen rope then you get limited results (see Ryan to Wallace) if you put enough air under it you allow your target to run under it or adjust accordingly.

    Every offense needs explosive plays, Lazor is slightly ignoring the deep ball because he lacks confidence in the execution of it.

    Ofcourse maybe he should just check PFF then he will realize he has one of the best deep ball throwers in all of football. :lol:
     
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  35. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I question the drop count, it's flat wrong, even still, based on those numbers he's top 20...sounds much more average than horrible.
     
  36. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    I'm sorry, but after watching Dan Marino his whole career top 20 ain't cutting it for me.
     
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  37. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    Any rational person would say that the first stats that were posted were pretty darn good at 43.1% which had him at the 9th best deep passing QB. You say 32.4 percent is horrible. 3 more completions and/or drops or any combination of completions and drops adding up to 3 would put him at 41.1% and 4 more completions and/or drops or any combination of completions and drops adding up to 4 would put him 44.1%.
     
  38. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    Do you want a time machine? Seems like the only way you will be happy is if you had a time machine.
     
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  39. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    "If if's and buts were candy and nuts" we'd be 9-2 now. We're not, and we'll be lucky to make the playoffs this year.
     

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