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Is the deep ball that important?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by speed, Dec 3, 2014.

  1. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    I won't waste anymore time with you, you like some of the others create these voices in your head and make things up. I'm emberassed for some of you, can't even have a clean healthy debate without fictional statements. I had no idea it takes more than just a QB to complete a deep pass?? Thank you
     
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  2. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    At some point you've probably got to prove yourself even halfway capable of the level of discourse you're claiming you're above.
     
  3. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Actually I won't, I don't make things up....I don't need too.
     
  4. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    [video=youtube_share;1sONfxPCTU0]http://youtu.be/1sONfxPCTU0[/video]
     
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  5. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    ????????????????????????????????????????????????????
     
  6. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    Lmfao

    He's something else ain't he Fin?
     
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  7. speed

    speed Banned

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    Keep studying you will figure it out. Now to the ignore list. Oh and GO BUCKS!
     
  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    What is being made up? I don't get it. If some of Tannehill's deep balls were caught, instead of going through hands, or receivers stepping out of bounds whole catching them, then just maybe, he doesn't seem quite so terrible at the deep ball. Not to mention, it's been proven that his deep ball to receivers not named Wallace is not all that bad.
     
  9. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Exactly, they're within a game or two ahead of us, not equally 7-5. The degree to which Miami is experiencing success in the short/intermediate range should be opening opportunities deep [which they do] which should be helping us win an additional game or two, but unfortunately Tannehill still has trouble completing them. Miami averages 22.9 pts game on offense. That's a noticeable improvement over last year, but let's not kid ourselves as fans into thinking we're operating on an elite level yet, and let's not pretend that every one of our drives end it touchdowns. We can't pretend that every drive featuring a chunk yardage TD reception was bound to end in a TD regardless.

    Take Philly last year. They had 16 drives end on TD throws without ever having to enter the redzone, with an average distance of roughly 35 yards. 16 drives, 16 TDs, 112 total pts. Now, Miami averages 2.23 pts per drive as a whole. Multiplied by 16 drives that's 36 points. Obviously that point total will increase if all 16 drives commence on average at the opponent's 35 yard line; however, they still won't end in a 100% TD success rate. I mean, as it is now, Miami is at roughly 60% redzone TD success rate when we're actually trying to score, and that's just from within 20 yards. Extend it back to 35 yards and I bet that 60% drops to a max of 40%, which translates to 6.4 of 16 drives ending in TD. That leaves 9.6 drives not ending in a TD, of which roughly 2 will end in a punt or missed FG, leaving 7.6 ending in a FG. That's 22.8 pts in FGs and 44.8 pts in TDs for a total of 67.6 pts [4.2 pts per drive]. Compare that 67.6 to Philly's 112 and there's a difference of 44.4 pts. Considering Philly's offense did in fact score 58 more points than what Miami is on pace for, I'd say there's merit to what I'm mentioning. I mean, I don't think it's coincidental that my quick math comes up with a difference of 44.8 points and that Philly scored 58 more points than what Miami is on pace for. I think most of those 44.8 pts are in that 58. In a nutshell, we're leaving points on the board.
     
  10. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    Todd, this is the second time I've seen you say our offense averages 22.9 points a game. Where are you getting this info? nfl.com says 25.1
     
  11. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    No ****. But tell me, what doesn't Ryan Tannehill have that's preventing him from completing a 9 route? He (had) a great oline and an always wide open mike Wallace.
     
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  12. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    It's important only if it works
     
  13. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    I think that includes the defense scoring points too.
     
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  14. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    Yes.

    There once was a man from Westerginia,
    who always asks his lady is it in ya.
    He said to his cow
    as he wiped off his brow,
    if we lived in New York
    they would eat ya.
     
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  15. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    You could be right but it is under offense scoring on nfl.com. Where do we draw the line? Should we take out special teams to make our offense look even worse? subtract the PAT's and field goals. lmao
     
  16. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    You DID save me some coke!!! BRT! Lol
     
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  17. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/offensive-points-per-game

    What CiF said. 25.1 includes 3 defensive TDs and 2 safeties. 22.9 is what the offense averages, which ranks 12th.
     
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  18. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

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    I'm guessing offensive scores only. We've had some defensive TD's.

    EDIT: I see it's already been answered. Tapatalk is slow sometimes.

    Sent from my Nexus 10 using Tapatalk
     
  19. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    The legitimate stat I provided has every team's non offensive scores removed when assessing offensive scoring, you know- since they have nothing to do with the offense.

    WADR, the "lmao" is thinking a team's offense should get credit for what their defense or special teams do. So what you're saying is, when Miami beat Jacksonville 27-14, the offense was responsible for all 27 points even though the defense had a pair of INT TDs? Should we give those 103 INT yards to the offense as well while we're at it?
     
  20. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    Interesting. I thought Baltimore's offense was 2.2 points per game better than us on offense, now I know they are 3.2 points per game better than us on offense. Good thing home field advantage will make up for that and Ngata not playing should make our offense better against them. I wish we were 100% healthy, but no team is so it's a moot point. I still wonder how much better our offense would be with a healthy O-line, Moreno, Clay, and whoever else is banged up on offense.
     
  21. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    The one thing I hate about typed words is that hardly anyone can tell when someone is joking, even with a lmao in there. I thought I had the legitimate stat for our offense scoring on nfl.com, but now I know I didn't. I was kidding, so I obviously don't think everything you are implying. Learn how to take a joke.
     
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  22. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    I think he was just joking around with you bro. I'll go do some lines with Todd, then I'll come and hang out with you. Have that bong packed with the sticky ganja. Lol
     
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  23. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Anyone ever go over to a random Steeler's fan's forum and see what opinions were of Wallace and Ben and the "deep passing"?


    http://thesteelersfans.com/forums

    Go do an advanced search where you can go back to years prior and search on Wallace.

    A few Gems:

    Any of that sound familiar? And this guy was their primer deep threat. They should have loved them some Mike Wallace. I mean, he's wide open every play and all he does it catch TDs...
     
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  24. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    You and Todd, eh...

    [​IMG]
     
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  25. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    LOL. You saw what I did there huh?
     
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  26. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    [video=youtube_share;JtYnu_0y120]http://youtu.be/JtYnu_0y120[/video]
    I will smoke this with you but I am afraid to make it. Have you heard of shatter? It is supposed the be the most potent form of thc, but people's houses have been getting blown up trying to make it, kind of like meth labs gone bad. lol
     
  27. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    Make it first, then call me. LOL
     
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  28. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Making stuff up would be a bit more interesting and a bit more brave than your normal act.
     
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  29. DPlus47

    DPlus47 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If you go to a Patriots fan forum after a loss, you'll be able to find multiple posts about how Belichick sucks and that he's wasting Brady's career with his incompetence. It says less about Belichick than it says about the people posting.

    Most fans have unrealistic expectations of players and coaches. This is true of the QB position and the WR position. Somehow a lot of us on this board only want it to be true about one or the other.
     
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  30. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Lol, "brave"??? We'll speak on it William Wallace don't just leave it at that.
     
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  31. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    You'll never win. He'll just twist everything around to try to make you look stupid and he's a genius. He's NEVER wrong. I quit trying to argue with him. I just laugh at him now. Lol
     
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  32. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    Sounds like a classic case of Sour Grapes to me.
     
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  33. Fins Hipster

    Fins Hipster Banned

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    The Eagles led the league in percentage of throws of 20+ yards in 2013, when Bill Lazor was the QB coach.
     
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  34. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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  35. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    okay, but what does any of this have to do with the deep ball? [since that's what we're talking about here]

    Since those posts were made, Wallace's effort in blocking, pursuit, route-running, and general understanding of the game have improved and have done so to such a degree that he's no longer viewed as just a one trick pony. I mean c'mon, Wallace is the most targeted receiver on the best Miami offense in years, and all but 2 of his receptions have been at 20 yards and less. Incidentally, on throws of 20 yards and less, Tannehill's rating is 98.9 with 70% completions, 19 TDs, and 6 INTs, so I'd say all of this suggests he's no longer just a "1 trick pony", as well as suggests he's a contributor, not a detractor.... yet the way you and some others speak about him, you'd think he's Stephen Hill, Clyde Gates, DHB, or Devin Hester.

    Plus, all the clear-outs that Wallace runs creates space underneath for the successful dink & dunk passing game. Opposing teams know Tannehill has trouble with his deep ball, and they know we're heavily focused on the short passing game with 81% of the completions coming at 10 yards and less, yet defenses surprisingly aren't playing us compressed like we're in the redzone across the entire field just as they did throughout 2012. How come? Why aren't defenses loading the box consistently or taking away Miami's best short-passing-game receiver [Landry] who has an insane 75% completion rate with an equally great 33 1st downs on just 76 pass attempts? I'm guessing Wallace's presence gets a pat on the back for this phenomenon.

    Wallace is on pace to challenge his single season high in TDs despite no deep ball TDs.
    His 7 redzone TDs are 1 less than he had in 4 years in Pitt [again suggestive of evolving into more than just a 1 trick pony].
    His 4.1% drop rate [according to SportingCharts.com] certainly isn't high. Between that and last year's 2.1%, he's at a commendable 2.9% in Miami which is roughly half of what it was in Pitt.

    Yes, we get it, Mike Wallace is not Jordy Nelson, but he certainly brings value to the offense, and he currently ranks 4th in TDs [44], 12th in receptions [362], 13th in yards [5,633], 11th in YPC [15.6], and still averages a lofty 8.7 yards per target since 2009. For a reference point, only once in Marino's 17 years did he average more than 8.7 per attempt [9.0 in 1984], and only twice did he average more than 8.0. Comparatively, the fast receiver drafted in 2009 you guys are really speaking of when talking about Wallace, Darius Heyward-Bey, ranks 71st in TDs [12], 74th in receptions [172], 65th in yards [2,413], 37th in YPC [14.0], and averages 2.1 less yards/target than Wallace.

    That last post you quoted speaks to what we've seen and heard from Wallace this year.
     
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  36. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That 11.1% is highly misguided though, because there are all kinds of passes that go 20 yards in the air. The variety where the receiver is wide open with nothing in front of him but daylight is a much, much higher TD percentage (not catch %, but TD%) than the throws you're including in the random stat.

    I'll let you answer your own question though. Tannehill has gone deep to Wallace five or six times this season, with every single pass a drop or an overthrow (yup, two are on Wallace). From those six missed TD's, we would have had two more wins. It also would have changed one close game to a blowout (the Jets last week). So how important would it be to be 9-3 right now instead of 7-5?

    Let's go a step further though and say that we have a QB that could hit 40 yard tosses to Wallace all day long. So we're 9-3 and we lost two of those games by 4 points or less. In those two games, Wallace was wide open deep at least 5 times per game....because he's wide open deep at least 5 times every game. We just don't go there anymore because it's a low percentage throw. So with a great deep ball QB, we make an extra 14 points per game and we could be sitting at 11-1. Does that make the stat more important?
     
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  37. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yes, when the alternative is basically talking about how much you know or that you know better while strenuously avoiding basically anything of substance, making something up is an improvement.
     
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  38. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Or, conversely, with a defense that could make a stop, we win those games also. I can't say it enough, the offense gave the defense a lead to defend. You can say the offense should score more points, but that is neither here nor there. The fact is, in those games, the offense handed the defense a lead. The defense had the opportunity to play up to their billing, and they failed every time. Every time. Yet, time and time again, we sit on here debating Tannehill and the offense. It just seems silly to me.
     
  39. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Why would it be sour grapes? The Steelers clearly made the right decision in paying Antonio Brown rather than Mike Wallace.

    I don't think I ever remember reading one of your posts before.
     
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  40. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It's not sour grapes when the posts were made while Wallace was still playing for the Steelers...
     
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