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Confusing the Ravens - Week 13 Preview

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by keithjackson, Dec 6, 2014.

  1. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Only two teams in the NFL are in the top ten of both scoring offense and scoring defense, and they will meet this weekend when the Baltimore Ravens meet the Miami Dolphins.

    Football Outsiders also agrees, as the two teams are the only ones to also be in the top ten of their DVOA rankings on both sides of the ball. While neither is particularly flashy, each has found the recipe for success by establishing very strong offensive and defensive lines. In fact, this will be the best match-up of four trenches that you will find all season. The similarities continue with two top ten rushing attacks: each averaging 4.6 yards/carry (#5), lots of yards/game (#5 BAL & #10 MIA), and high DVOAs (#2 MIA & #13 BAL). The QBs are also having similar seasons stats-wise: Joe Flacco (63.1% comp 20/8 TD/INT 93.5 rating) and Ryan Tannehill (66.5% 20/9 92.1). This should be a hard-fought battle between two extremely tough playoff contenders, trading blows and fighting for their seasons.

    Baltimore's offense is slightly better, while Miami's defense gets a small edge. However, both of these units have been extremely inconsistent lately. After these last two weeks, Football Outsider's actually rates Miami's defense the MOST inconsistent in the NFL (#32). Baltimore's offense is #22. Joe Flacco has a lot to do with that; just look at how his ratings swung the first half of the season: 71.0, 109.3, 79.6, 137.4, 65.1, 146.0, 91.8, and 43.1. (Even within the game, his average rating is 123.7 in the first quarter and 79.5 in the third.) The mystery of "who will show up" when the Ravens have the ball may decide who wins.

    Joe Flacco has not faced a pass defense as talented as the Dolphins, who are allowing 6.1 yards/attempt (#1) and an 81.6 rating (#5). The closest they came would be the Bengals, and he played poorly both times. He is playing poorly in the Redzone this year (87.7 rat, 10th-worst), but great on third down (103.5). (FYI, Tannehill is the opposite: #10 RZ 99.0 and 75.7 on Third.) He is rated an awesome 135.9 throwing to the left sideline, but a terrible 67.9 on the right sideline. Given the time for routes 20+ yards to develop, he is very good at using his powerful arm, however he has a poor 70.4 rating on intermediate routes 11-20 yards down field. Who knows what you're going to get? He's more power than accuracy, but it gets the job done. (Flacco has actually engendered more DPI calls than any other QB by a mile. Also interesting, he lines up in the shotgun or pistol less than almost every other QB in football.) The key is pressure, as he is not as cognitive as other QBs. Rushing him may prove difficult however for Wake and Vernon who seemed to have disappeared, combining for just two sacks over the last three games. Flacco has an excellent OLine, maybe the best, which has only allowed 15 sacks all season (#2). Over their last three games, they have only allowed two sacks and the offense has only surrendered one turnover. This game is gonna have to be won the hard way, inch by inch.

    While the Ravens throw better to the left, they excel at running to the right behind Marshall Yanda, who is having a Pro Bowl year at guard. If they have a weakness, it's near the LOS, as they are below average in short-yardage situations. Justin Forsett is leading the league with 5.6 yards/carry. He uses a boom-or-bust running attack, with 35 ten-plus yard runs (#2) and 21 runs for zero or negative gains (11.7%). (It's probably a little more boom.) He may be the best RB we see this year. He's like a itsy-bitsy Knowshon Moreno, squeezing every single yard he can out of every run. He has just enough power to exploit tiny holes and just enough speed to run past lineman. He uses his blockers better than anyone in the NFL. And they are a top three run blocking team. Football Outsiders ranks them #1 in the open field and #2 in the second level. The Ravens run a league-low 11% of runs around the left and right ends. However, they run a league-high 23% of runs off right tackle. Why? Because they are averaging 5.45 adjusted line yards there (#1). Expect to see lots of that because the Dolphins' strength is defending the run on the left. In fact, Miami run defense goes from asset to liability as you move to the right (from offense's view): LE #7, LT #10, Mid #16, RT #19, RE #26.

    If the Dolphins' rush defense can maintain their discipline and keep everything in front of them, I like them better than most people to defend the run on Sunday. Justin Forsett can easily turn something little into something big, but he can't make something out of nothing. That plays to MIA's strength. Granted, they just gave up 200 yards twice in a row, but in the ten games previous they were a top ten run defense. (I think the altitude in Denver really tired the defense out, as 149 of the rushing yards came in the second half. In NY, the rain totally negated the defense's strength as fast, reactionary and swarming. Monday night was the slowest field they'd experienced and couldn't likewise cut and use their talents. Instead, they were pushed around by some fat guys; add in some misdirection and trickery and it was a massacre.) In games where they rush for 125 yards or less, BAL is 1-4; so that's the magic number.

    The true weaknesses of the Ravens offense are their pass catchers; the unit is particularly poor in mastering timing and precise route running. Steve Smith is a #3 pretending to be a #1. He's had some huge plays this year, but he's had three or less catches in 4/6 recent games. Last week he totaled two yards and called himself out. He seems like their only offensive player who gets fired up. He may need a big game because Torrey Smith is banged up, after having a quietly solid year so far. Notable, Torrey is averaging 12.3 YATC and Steve 9.43. (Compare that to Wallace's 8.2 and Landry's 3.4, and that's the fundamental difference in the passing attacks.) Forcing the throw before those long routes can be run is crucial. Gary Kubiak's system traditionally emphasizes the TE, but this group is practically invisible. Owen Daniels has six catches over the last three games. Plus, Miami is the NFL's BEST team at covering TEs, allowing only 27.5 yards/game this year. Play lots of press man coverage, paying extra attention to Steve, and force the Ravens to be one dimensional. Because they are particularly terrible in isolation routes, MIA should be able to take advantage of stacking eight in the box.

    When the Dolphins have the ball, they need to exploit the NFL's second-worst BAL pass defense. QBs are completing 66.7% of passes (4th-worst) and accumulating a 97.4 rating (5th-worst) against them. Opponents' #1 and #2 WRs are averaging 17 combined receptions per game. Over the past four weeks alone, BAL has given up 13 passing TDs! (The one thing they cover well are RB passes, but Lamar can't catch those anyways.) Jimmy Smith was the best player in the secondary, but after going on IR nobody has stepped up in his place. (No sympathy.) The biggest sore thumb may be Matt Elam, in the middle of a sophomore slump that has revealed a dearth of instincts, penchant for missed tackles, and an inability to play through the whistle. As Elam covers the slot, the secret to this game may be Jarvis Landry, who PFF ranks as the best slot receiver in the NFL. BAL has also allowed 26 passes of 25+ yards, so this may be a good week to finally send Mike Wallace deep. (FYI, Miami has allowed 13.)Regardless, to beat the Ravens, you've got attack them in the air.

    Baltimore's defensive line, on the other hand, is formidable. They are ranked fourth in rush defense, allowing 3.6 y/c and 86.3 y/g. (However over the previous four games, we've played the three teams ranked above them, plus Buffalo, so this might be a cakewalk.) Just like their OLine, their DLine is exceptional in the second level (#2) and open field (#2). When the Dolphins run the ball, there is going to be a battle of the Titans in the middle. Miami's strength is running up the gut (#2), and so is the Raven's defense (#4). Without Haloti, it's difficult to gauge how effective their run def will be, but Timmy Jernigan has played very well in his limited opportunities. They are not as disruptive on the interior, or behind the LOS, as the teams we've played the past few weeks, but are still better than average. Surprisingly, BAL is the worst team in football defending the run off of right tackle, so Dallas Thomas may have a huge opportunity to make a positive impact in this game. (Good luck, kid.) He and Ja'Waun will have their hands full against Elvis Dumervil (12.5 sacks, #2 in NFL), and a unit that has 31 sacks total. It will be very important to establish a running game to keep the pressure from focusing in on Ryan Tannehill. Still, unlike his counterpart this game, Ryan has captained an offense that FO ranks 5th-most consistent in the NFL. And his quick, short/intermediate passing game that exploits cushions and forces missed tackles is Baltimore's kryptonite.

    Other Storylines The ebb and flow of both teams' games have mirrored each other. Both play awesome defense in the first half, with BAL only allowing 8.0 points (#3) and MIA 8.8 (#4). Then the offenses catch fire in the second, with MIA scoring 15.6 points (#2) and BAL 14.7 (#4). Interestingly, each have very low TOP in the first quarter (BAL #30 and MIA #31), and then hog the ball in the fourth (MIA #2 and BAL #3). Special Teams Justin Tucker may actually be the Ravens' best player. Last week he became the most accurate kicker in NFL history with 100 attempts at 91.2% (78% from 50+), and this year he has 50 touchbacks (#2). They also have a good punter, and Jacoby Jones is having a better year returning KOs than Landry. If they were kicking away from Harvin, what will they do this week? Young LBs CJ Mosley is playing like the best linebacker from the 2014 draft, and in contention for DROTY. Jelani Jenkins is likewise playing at a Pro Bowl level and looking like the cream of the 2013 crop. Will one of these young LBs make the difference? Coaching The biggest criticism of Harbaugh and Co. this season has been an inability to adapt mid-game, which just so happens to be Philbin and Co.'s strength.

    Prediction The Ravens should copy most of the Jets gameplan from last week, running the ball lots and lots, which is Baltimore's forte; the Dolphins should copy the Chargers and dink and dunk a wobbly secondary into submission, which is Miami's forte. This game can easily go either way. If it's played on the ground it favors the purple team, but in the air favors aqua. However, even en if Flacco has a great game, Miami has shown the ability to go toe-to-toe with the league's best QBs. So ultimately, it comes down to one question, "What Miami run defense will show up?" If it's respectable, then the Dolphins should win. The second-best pass defense versus the second-worst pass defense is the biggest discrepancy going into Sunday, and it would take a monster performance from Forsett to overcome that.

    Oh, and a group of ravens is called a Confusion.

    MIA 27 BAL 24
     
  2. Alex13

    Alex13 Tua Time !!! Club Member

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    great job as always, but i'm scared as hell about the other CB starter besides grimes
     
  3. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    As always Keith..great write-up and thank you for letting us know what to look for in this game..I will tell ya after all of this rain it should be real humid in Miami tomorrow..I might go to this game.
     
  4. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder

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    Great write-up, thanks!
     
  5. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    Love it! Great preview!
     
    Pandarilla likes this.
  6. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    Excellent write up, Keith. Best this week actually. Good info on the linemen. I'm interested to see how good Timmy Jernigan is. He is a second rounder from Florida St. So I'm not expecting a huge drop off just because he's replacing Ngata.
     
  7. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It's also worth noting that we've played 5 of 7 on the road lately, and those two home games were a huge win against Bufallo and that throttling of the Chargers. I think our defense plays back to it's identity when it comes home.
     
  8. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    We need this game...No Ngata is huge in my opinion. Lamar Miller needs to do his thing, Tannehill needs to go at their safeties. Gonna be a good game.
     
  9. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    Nice preview. And I had to google the word "engender."

    For some reason I feel like we're a big underdog in this one. I think no matter how it shakes out it'll be a tight game, and I don't trust our ability to pull out a tight victory.
     
  10. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    That's why we have to win big, with style.
     
  11. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    i don't care what anyone says, we whipped that sad diego ***, then they turn around and beat the ravens in their house...

    lets get it on.
     
  12. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    I think the bad run defense is a bit of a ghost result and here's why.

    Our run defense must have good gap discipline, which we generally have had all season.

    Against Denver.. We weren't expecting the run as much.. So players were more looking to get upfield and create pressure on Manning, which was thought to be the recipe as to how to beat them. Gap discipline was horrible.. Guys were not in position to make the tackle.

    Last week against the Jets again gap discipline.. But this was because we got cocky and wanted to stat pad. Sam Madison made mention of it this week. Once they knocked it off.. And got back to playing sound technique.. They couldn't run any more.
     
  13. NyPhinfan

    NyPhinfan Season Ticket Holder

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    The run defense to me is the most important aspect of this game. The Dolphins have to realize that Baltimore will try to exploit what they have seen on film the last 2 weeks and I hope that 1) that would not be a surprise to Coyle and 2) it wont take till after halftime to make an adjustment
    I know we want to attack their secondary but we have to make a better effort to run the ball more. Sometimes I feel we get away from something that we have done pretty well all year. Dont want to pound it but has to be more than 3-4 carries in a half
     
  14. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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