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The Continuity Conundrum

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by 3Pmi, Dec 8, 2014.

  1. 3Pmi

    3Pmi IT Specialist Staff Member Administrator

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    Michigan
    In all of the recent discussions I've read lately on whether to keep Philbin or not, the most common argument I've seen has been to keep him for the sake of continuity. I can understand this line of thinking and was, as recently as two weeks ago, a proponent of this approach. With the recent play of the team with the playoffs on the line, for the second year in a row, I have reconsidered my stance.

    This has led me to a bit of a conundrum. It is quite clear to most that the successful franchises in the league exhibit a stable coaching environment to go along with their success. They generally maintain a set team philosophy for a long period of time and the players in their system are aforded an opportunity to grow without the constant disadvantage of having to start back at square one every 2-3 years.

    Inspired by an excellent post by ToddPhins, though, I was curious about the cause and effect relationship of the success/continuity equation. Which comes first? Is an organization successful because of the continuity of their coaching staff, or is the coaching staff afforded the luxury of continuity due to their success?

    As ToddPhins points out, when you look at the continuity of a program like the Steelers, it is much easier to stay the course when both Cowher and Tomlin enjoyed quite a bit of success over their first three years. While it is difficult to make an apples to apples comparison due to coaches coming into the job with the team in various states of progression, I was interested to see if any general trends could be gathered from looking at a large data set. The current average tenure of a coach is 4 years, and I wanted to look at coaches who have beaten those odds. As such, I've included all the current coaches who have been in their jobs for 5 years or longer as well as long tenured regimes from the modern era. I've included the coaches performance over their first 3 years as a direct comparison to Joe Philbin. I'll let the results speak for themselves to get the conversation started.

    First the current 5+ year coaches:
    [table="width: 800, class: grid"]
    [tr][td]Coach[/td][td]Team[/td][td]Years[/td][td]Overall Record[/td][td]Year 1[/td][td]Year 2[/td][td]Year 3[/td][td]Overall[/td][td]Postseason[/td][td]Deepest Playoff Run[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]Bill Belichick[/td][td]Patriots[/td][td]15[/td][td]171-63 (.731)[/td][td]5-11[/td][td]11-5[/td][td]9-7[/td][td]25-23 (.520)[/td][td]3-0[/td][td]Superbowl Win[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]Marvin Lewis[/td][td]Bengals[/td][td]12[/td][td]109-88-2 (.524)[/td][td]8-8[/td][td]8-8[/td][td]11-5[/td][td]27-21 (.562)[/td][td]0-1[/td][td]Wildcard[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]Tom Coughlin[/td][td]Giants[/td][td]11[/td][td]93-78 (.544)[/td][td]6-10[/td][td]11-5[/td][td]8-8[/td][td]25-23 (.520)[/td][td]0-2[/td][td]Wildcard[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]Mike McCarthy[/td][td]Packers[/td][td]9[/td][td]90-48-1 (.651)[/td][td]8-8[/td][td]13-3[/td][td]6-10[/td][td]27-21 (.562)[/td][td]1-1[/td][td]NFC Championship[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]Sean Payton[/td][td]Saints[/td][td]9*[/td][td]78-45 (.634)[/td][td]10-6[/td][td]7-9[/td][td]8-8[/td][td]25-23 (.520)[/td][td]1-1[/td][td]NFC Championship[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]Mike Tomlin[/td][td]Steelers[/td][td]8[/td][td]77-45 (.631)[/td][td]10-6[/td][td]12-4[/td][td]9-7[/td][td]31-17 (.645)[/td][td]3-1[/td][td]Superbowl Win[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]Mike Smith[/td][td]Falcons[/td][td]7[/td][td]64-43 (.598)[/td][td]11-5[/td][td]9-7[/td][td]13-3[/td][td]33-15 (.687)[/td][td]0-2[/td][td]Divisional[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]John Harbaugh[/td][td]Ravens[/td][td]6[/td][td]68-39 (.636)[/td][td]11-5[/td][td]9-7[/td][td]12-4[/td][td]32-16 (.666)[/td][td]4-3[/td][td]AFC Championship[/td][/tr]
    [tr][td]Rex Ryan[/td][td]Jets[/td][td]5[/td][td]44-46 (.489)[/td][td]9-7[/td][td]11-5[/td][td]8-8[/td][td]28-20 (.583)[/td][td]4-2[/td][td]AFC Championship[/td][/tr]
    [/table]
    * Payton was suspended for a year due to bountygate, but this was well after he had secured his continuity.

    Finally, coaches with long tenure during the modern era (pardon my wall of text):

    [table="width: 1000, class: grid"]
    [TR][TD]Coach[/TD][TD]Team[/TD][TD]Years[/TD][TD]Record[/TD][TD]Win %[/TD][TD]Year 1[/TD][TD]Year 2[/TD][TD]Year 3[/TD][TD]Record Yr1-3[/TD][TD]% Yr1-3[/TD][TD]Playoff Record[/TD][TD]Deepest Playoff Run[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Don Shula[/TD][TD]Dolphins[/TD][TD]26[/TD][TD]257-133-2[/TD][TD]0.656[/TD][TD]10-4-0[/TD][TD]10-3-1[/TD][TD]14-0-0[/TD][TD]34-7-1[/TD][TD]0.810[/TD][TD]5-2[/TD][TD]Superbowl Win[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Jeff Fisher[/TD][TD]Titans/Oilers[/TD][TD]16[/TD][TD]141-115-0[/TD][TD]0.551[/TD][TD]7-9[/TD][TD]8-8[/TD][TD]8-8[/TD][TD]16-22-0[/TD][TD]0.479[/TD][TD]0-0[/TD][TD]None[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Joe Gibbs[/TD][TD]Redskins[/TD][TD]16[/TD][TD]154-94-0[/TD][TD]0.621[/TD][TD]8-8-0[/TD][TD]8-1-0[/TD][TD]14-2-0[/TD][TD]30-11-0[/TD][TD]0.732[/TD][TD]6-1[/TD][TD]Superbowl Win[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Bill Cowher[/TD][TD]Steelers[/TD][TD]15[/TD][TD]149-90-1[/TD][TD]0.621[/TD][TD]11-5-0[/TD][TD]9-7-0[/TD][TD]12-4-0[/TD][TD]32-16[/TD][TD]0.667[/TD][TD]1-3[/TD][TD]AFC Championship[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Mike Shanahan[/TD][TD]Broncos[/TD][TD]14[/TD][TD]138-86-0[/TD][TD]0.616[/TD][TD]8-8-0[/TD][TD]13-3-0[/TD][TD]12-4-0[/TD][TD]33-15-0[/TD][TD]0.688[/TD][TD]4-1[/TD][TD]Superbowl Win[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Andy Reid[/TD][TD]Eagles[/TD][TD]14[/TD][TD]130-93-1[/TD][TD]0.580[/TD][TD]5-11-0[/TD][TD]11-5-0[/TD][TD]11-5-0[/TD][TD]27-21-0[/TD][TD]0.563[/TD][TD]3-2[/TD][TD]NFC Championship[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Dan Reeves[/TD][TD]Broncos[/TD][TD]12[/TD][TD]110-73-1[/TD][TD]0.598[/TD][TD]10-6-0[/TD][TD]2-7-0[/TD][TD]9-7-0[/TD][TD]21-20-0[/TD][TD]0.512[/TD][TD]0-1[/TD][TD]Wildcard[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Marv Levy[/TD][TD]Bills[/TD][TD]12[/TD][TD]112-70-0[/TD][TD]0.615[/TD][TD]2-5-0[/TD][TD]7-8-0[/TD][TD]12-4-0[/TD][TD]21-17-0[/TD][TD]0.553[/TD][TD]1-1[/TD][TD]AFC Championship[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Jim Mora Sr.[/TD][TD]Saints[/TD][TD]11[/TD][TD]93-74-0[/TD][TD]0.557[/TD][TD]7-9-0[/TD][TD]12-3-0[/TD][TD]10-6-0[/TD][TD]29-18-0[/TD][TD]0.617[/TD][TD]0-1[/TD][TD]Wildcard[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Mike Ditka[/TD][TD]Bears[/TD][TD]11[/TD][TD]106-62-0[/TD][TD]0.631[/TD][TD]3-6-0[/TD][TD]8-8-0[/TD][TD]10-6-0[/TD][TD]21-20-0[/TD][TD]0.512[/TD][TD]1-1[/TD][TD]NFC Championship[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Marty Schottenheimer[/TD][TD]Chiefs[/TD][TD]10[/TD][TD]101-58-1[/TD][TD]0.631[/TD][TD]8-7-1[/TD][TD]11-5-0[/TD][TD]10-6-0[/TD][TD]29-18-1[/TD][TD]0.604[/TD][TD]1-2[/TD][TD]Divisional[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Mike Holmgren[/TD][TD]Seahawks[/TD][TD]10[/TD][TD]86-74-0[/TD][TD]0.538[/TD][TD]9-7-0[/TD][TD]6-10-0[/TD][TD]9-7-0[/TD][TD]24-24-0[/TD][TD]0.500[/TD][TD]0-1[/TD][TD]Wildcard[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Dennis Green[/TD][TD]Vikings[/TD][TD]10[/TD][TD]97-62-0[/TD][TD]0.610[/TD][TD]11-5-0[/TD][TD]9-7-0[/TD][TD]10-6-0[/TD][TD]30-18-0[/TD][TD]0.625[/TD][TD]0-3[/TD][TD]Wildcard[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Bill Walsh[/TD][TD]49ers[/TD][TD]10[/TD][TD]92-59-1[/TD][TD]0.605[/TD][TD]2-14-0[/TD][TD]6-10-0[/TD][TD]13-3-0[/TD][TD]21-27-0[/TD][TD]0.438[/TD][TD]3-0[/TD][TD]Superbowl*Win[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]John Fox[/TD][TD]Panthers[/TD][TD]9[/TD][TD]73-71-0[/TD][TD]0.507[/TD][TD]7-9-0[/TD][TD]11-5-0[/TD][TD]7-9-0[/TD][TD]25-23-0[/TD][TD]0.521[/TD][TD]3-1[/TD][TD]Superbowl*Loss[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Lovie Smith[/TD][TD]Bears[/TD][TD]9[/TD][TD]81-63-0[/TD][TD]0.563[/TD][TD]5-11-0[/TD][TD]11-5-0[/TD][TD]13-3-0[/TD][TD]29-19-0[/TD][TD]0.604[/TD][TD]2-2[/TD][TD]Superbowl Loss[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Brian Billick[/TD][TD]Ravens[/TD][TD]9[/TD][TD]80-64-0[/TD][TD]0.556[/TD][TD]8-8-0[/TD][TD]12-4-0[/TD][TD]10-6-0[/TD][TD]30-18-0[/TD][TD]0.625[/TD][TD]5-1[/TD][TD]Superbowl*Win[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]John Robinson[/TD][TD]Rams[/TD][TD]9[/TD][TD]79-74-0[/TD][TD]0.516[/TD][TD]9-7-0[/TD][TD]10-6-0[/TD][TD]11-5-0[/TD][TD]30-18-0[/TD][TD]0.625[/TD][TD]2-3[/TD][TD]NFC Championship[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Jack Del Rio[/TD][TD]Jaguars[/TD][TD]9[/TD][TD]68-71-0[/TD][TD]0.489[/TD][TD]5-11-0[/TD][TD]9-7-0[/TD][TD]12-4-0[/TD][TD]26-22-0[/TD][TD]0.542[/TD][TD]0-1[/TD][TD]Wildcard[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Bill Parcells[/TD][TD]Giants[/TD][TD]8[/TD][TD]77-49-1[/TD][TD]0.606[/TD][TD]3-12-1[/TD][TD]9-7-0[/TD][TD]10-6-0[/TD][TD]22-25-1[/TD][TD]0.458[/TD][TD]2-2[/TD][TD]Divisional[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Tom Coughlin[/TD][TD]Jaguars[/TD][TD]8[/TD][TD]68-60-0[/TD][TD]0.531[/TD][TD]4-12-0[/TD][TD]9-7-0[/TD][TD]11-5-0[/TD][TD]24-24-0[/TD][TD]0.500[/TD][TD]2-2[/TD][TD]AFC Championship[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]George Seifert[/TD][TD]49ers[/TD][TD]8[/TD][TD]98-30-0[/TD][TD]0.766[/TD][TD]14-2-0[/TD][TD]14-2-0[/TD][TD]10-6-0[/TD][TD]38-10-0[/TD][TD]0.792[/TD][TD]4-1[/TD][TD]Superbowl Win[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Sam Wyche[/TD][TD]Bengals[/TD][TD]8[/TD][TD]61-66-0[/TD][TD]0.480[/TD][TD]8-8-0[/TD][TD]7-9-0[/TD][TD]10-6-0[/TD][TD]25-23-0[/TD][TD]0.521[/TD][TD]0-0[/TD][TD]None[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Wayne Fontes[/TD][TD]Lions[/TD][TD]8[/TD][TD]64-64-0[/TD][TD]0.500[/TD][TD]7-9-0[/TD][TD]6-10-0[/TD][TD]12-4-0[/TD][TD]25-23-0[/TD][TD]0.521[/TD][TD]1-1[/TD][TD]NFC Championship[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Gary Kubiak[/TD][TD]Texans[/TD][TD]8[/TD][TD]61-64-0[/TD][TD]0.488[/TD][TD]6-10-0[/TD][TD]8-8-0[/TD][TD]8-8-0[/TD][TD]22-26-0[/TD][TD]0.458[/TD][TD]0-0[/TD][TD]None[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Dan Reeves[/TD][TD]Falcons[/TD][TD]7[/TD][TD]49-59-1[/TD][TD]0.450[/TD][TD]7-9-0[/TD][TD]14-2-0[/TD][TD]5-11-0[/TD][TD]26-22-0[/TD][TD]0.542[/TD][TD]2-1[/TD][TD]Superbowl Loss[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Mike Holmgren[/TD][TD]Packers[/TD][TD]7[/TD][TD]75-37-0[/TD][TD]0.670[/TD][TD]9-7-0[/TD][TD]9-7-0[/TD][TD]9-7-0[/TD][TD]27-21-0[/TD][TD]0.563[/TD][TD]2-2[/TD][TD]Divisional[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Tony Dungy[/TD][TD]Colts[/TD][TD]7[/TD][TD]85-27-0[/TD][TD]0.759[/TD][TD]10-6-0[/TD][TD]12-4-0[/TD][TD]12-4-0[/TD][TD]34-14-0[/TD][TD]0.708[/TD][TD]3-3[/TD][TD]AFC Championship[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Dick Vermeil[/TD][TD]Eagles[/TD][TD]7[/TD][TD]54-47-0[/TD][TD]0.535[/TD][TD]4-10-0[/TD][TD]5-9-0[/TD][TD]9-7-0[/TD][TD]18-26-0[/TD][TD]0.409[/TD][TD]0-1[/TD][TD]Wildcard[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Norv Turner[/TD][TD]Redskins[/TD][TD]7[/TD][TD]49-59-1[/TD][TD]0.450[/TD][TD]3-13-0[/TD][TD]6-10-0[/TD][TD]9-7-0[/TD][TD]18-30-0[/TD][TD]0.375[/TD][TD]0-0[/TD][TD]None[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Jon Gruden[/TD][TD]Bucs[/TD][TD]7[/TD][TD]57-55-0[/TD][TD]0.509[/TD][TD]12-4-0[/TD][TD]7-9-0[/TD][TD]5-11-0[/TD][TD]24-24-0[/TD][TD]0.500[/TD][TD]3-0[/TD][TD]Superbowl*Win[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Jim Fassel[/TD][TD]Giants[/TD][TD]7[/TD][TD]58-53-1[/TD][TD]0.518[/TD][TD]10-5-1[/TD][TD]8-8-0[/TD][TD]7-9-0[/TD][TD]25-22-1[/TD][TD]0.521[/TD][TD]0-1[/TD][TD]Wildcard[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Tony Dungy[/TD][TD]Bucs[/TD][TD]6[/TD][TD]54-42-0[/TD][TD]0.563[/TD][TD]6-10-0[/TD][TD]10-6-0[/TD][TD]8-8-0[/TD][TD]24-24-0[/TD][TD]0.500[/TD][TD]1-1[/TD][TD]Divisional[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Norv Turner[/TD][TD]Chargers[/TD][TD]6[/TD][TD]56-40-0[/TD][TD]0.583[/TD][TD]11-5-0[/TD][TD]8-8-0[/TD][TD]13-3-0[/TD][TD]32-16-0[/TD][TD]0.667[/TD][TD]3-3[/TD][TD]AFC Championship[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Steve Mariucci[/TD][TD]49ers[/TD][TD]6[/TD][TD]57-39-0[/TD][TD]0.594[/TD][TD]13-3-0[/TD][TD]12-4-0[/TD][TD]4-12-0[/TD][TD]29-19-0[/TD][TD]0.604[/TD][TD]2-2[/TD][TD]NFC Championship[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Mike Sherman[/TD][TD]Packers[/TD][TD]6[/TD][TD]57-39-0[/TD][TD]0.594[/TD][TD]9-7-0[/TD][TD]12-4-0[/TD][TD]12-4-0[/TD][TD]33-15-0[/TD][TD]0.688[/TD][TD]1-2[/TD][TD]Divisional[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Art Shell[/TD][TD]Raiders[/TD][TD]6[/TD][TD]54-38-0[/TD][TD]0.587[/TD][TD]7-5-0[/TD][TD]12-4-0[/TD][TD]9-7-0[/TD][TD]28-16-0[/TD][TD]0.636[/TD][TD]1-2[/TD][TD]AFC Championship[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Ron Meyer[/TD][TD]Colts[/TD][TD]6[/TD][TD]36-35-0[/TD][TD]0.507[/TD][TD]3-13-0[/TD][TD]9-6-0[/TD][TD]9-7-0[/TD][TD]21-26-0[/TD][TD]0.447[/TD][TD]0-1[/TD][TD]Divisional[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Mike Martz[/TD][TD]Rams[/TD][TD]6[/TD][TD]53-32-0[/TD][TD]0.624[/TD][TD]10-6-0[/TD][TD]14-2-0[/TD][TD]7-9-0[/TD][TD]31-17-0[/TD][TD]0.646[/TD][TD]2-2[/TD][TD]Superbowl*Loss[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Jerry Burns[/TD][TD]Vikings[/TD][TD]6[/TD][TD]52-43-0[/TD][TD]0.547[/TD][TD]9-7-0[/TD][TD]8-7-0[/TD][TD]11-5-0[/TD][TD]28-19-0[/TD][TD]0.596[/TD][TD]3-2[/TD][TD]NFC Championship[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Bill Belichick[/TD][TD]Browns[/TD][TD]5[/TD][TD]36-44-0[/TD][TD]0.450[/TD][TD]6-10-0[/TD][TD]7-9-0[/TD][TD]7-9-0[/TD][TD]20-28-0[/TD][TD]0.417[/TD][TD]0-0[/TD][TD]None[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Marty Schottenheimer[/TD][TD]Browns[/TD][TD]5[/TD][TD]44-27-0[/TD][TD]0.620[/TD][TD]4-4-0[/TD][TD]8-8-0[/TD][TD]12-4-0[/TD][TD]24-16-0[/TD][TD]0.600[/TD][TD]1-2[/TD][TD]AFC Championship[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Dick Vermeil[/TD][TD]Chiefs[/TD][TD]5[/TD][TD]44-36-0[/TD][TD]0.550[/TD][TD]6-10-0[/TD][TD]8-8-0[/TD][TD]13-3-0[/TD][TD]27-21-0[/TD][TD]0.563[/TD][TD]0-1[/TD][TD]Divisional[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Jimmy Johnson[/TD][TD]Cowboys[/TD][TD]5[/TD][TD]44-36-0[/TD][TD]0.550[/TD][TD]1-15-0[/TD][TD]7-9-0[/TD][TD]11-5-0[/TD][TD]19-29-0[/TD][TD]0.396[/TD][TD]1-1[/TD][TD]Divisional[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Dick Jauron[/TD][TD]Bears[/TD][TD]5[/TD][TD]35-45-0[/TD][TD]0.438[/TD][TD]6-10-0[/TD][TD]5-11-0[/TD][TD]13-3-0[/TD][TD]24-24-0[/TD][TD]0.500[/TD][TD]0-1[/TD][TD]Divisional[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Buddy Ryan[/TD][TD]Eagles[/TD][TD]5[/TD][TD]43-35-1[/TD][TD]0.544[/TD][TD]5-10-1[/TD][TD]7-8-0[/TD][TD]10-6-0[/TD][TD]22-24-1[/TD][TD]0.468[/TD][TD]0-1[/TD][TD]Divisional[/TD][/TR]
    [TR][TD]Herm Edwards[/TD][TD]Jets[/TD][TD]5[/TD][TD]39-41-0[/TD][TD]0.488[/TD][TD]10-6-0[/TD][TD]9-7-0[/TD][TD]6-10-0[/TD][TD]25-23-0[/TD][TD]0.521[/TD][TD]1-2[/TD][TD]Divisional[/TD][/TR]
    [/table]
    Yes, that list was hand-researched and yes I might be a little nuts. I really wanted to get a large sample size and was quite curious what the results would tell me. For the record, I pulled the historic list of coaches from the top 100 all-time winningest coaches in NFL history, then picked out only the coaches who's tenure was at least during the 1980's. It is possible that a coach with a long tenure who was an absolute disaster of a failure was left off as a result, but seriously... Dick Jauron made the list!

    With that laid out, what are your feelings on continuity?

    P.S. If anyone is interested in the raw data I compiled for your own sorting/filtering enjoyment, I've shared it out on my OneDrive: http://1drv.ms/1AY12h9
     
  2. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    I am for continuity of this system, for the next 10 years.
     
  3. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    At a quick glance, I see that the good coaches have usually had a good season at least once in the first three years. I'm wondering if Philbin is the next Jeff Fisher, always around 8-8 but seldom doing much better than that.

    I need to see how the rest of the season turns out, if the players make a game of it at New England, and if they win at home versus two below average teams in the Vikes and Jests. If he could go 3-0, I'd say keep him for another season. Fire him if they go 1-2, and I don't know how I'd feel about 2-1 yet....
     
  4. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Awesome work.

    Regarding the first list:

    (The assumption would be that these are the best coaches and thus the longest tenured)

    they all made Play-off appearances within their first 3 seasons

    5 of the 9 had winning records after 1 season

    3 of the 9 regressed in the 2nd season

    7 of the 9 had winning records after 2 seasons

    5 of the 9 regressed in the 3rd season

    all were above .500 after 3 seasons

    only 3 were above .600 after 3 seasons

    12 of the 27 seasons had 10+ wins

    12 of the 27 seasons had between 7 and 9 wins

    15 of the 27 seasons had 9 or fewer wins

    None had less than 5 wins or more than 13

    4 of the 9 had losing seasons at least once

    4 of the 9 had multiple seasons at or below .500


    all coaches demonstrated improvement

    all but 1 coach demonstrated regression


    the average change from season to season was +/- 3.1 games


    8 of the 9 coaches had QBs who have since proven to be good

    only 4 of the 9 coaches have an overall record that is better than the 3-season record

    the average 3-season win percentage was 0.585
     
    MikeHoncho likes this.
  5. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Based on that quick list of facts...

    (1) I would concur with Deus that most coaches managed a "good" season in their first 3.

    (2) The longest tenured coaches are strongly correlated to the most consistent QBs (Rex is the only one without a decent name QB)

    Belichick to Brady
    Lewis to Palmer
    Coughlin to Manning
    McCarthy to Favre/Rodgers
    Payton to Brees
    Tomlin to Roethelisberger
    Smith to Ryan
    Harbaugh to Flacco

    (3) Most were just above .500 after 3 seasons

    (4) Most improved in year 2

    (5) Most declined in year 3
     
    MikeHoncho likes this.
  6. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It looks like Philbin hasn't managed the breakout year that the "best" coaches did.

    He's been more stable as he has led the team to seasons less than 1 game different than the year prior, while those above average a 3-game swing good or bad.

    Philbin has produced slightly under the number of wins of the "best"



    What's even more interesting is this:

    The only coaches who improved their records notably past year 3 had elite QBs. Those would be:

    (1) Belichick w/ Brady (.520 - .731)
    (2) McCarthy w/ Rodgers (.562 - .651)
    (3) Payton w/ Brees (.520 - .634)


    These coaches showed little improvement over their 3-season winning percentage.

    (1) Lewis w/ Dalton (.562 - .524) (DECLINED)
    (2) Coughlin / Manning (.520 - .544)
    (3) Tomlin w/ Roethlisberger (.645 - .631) (DECLINED)
    (4) Smith w/ Ryan (.687 - .598) (DECLINED)
    (5) Harbaugh w/ Flacco (.666 - .636) (DECLINED)


    The conclusion would be that if you don't have a truly elite passer, your record will probably stay where it is.

    However, that list of 5 QBs also has 5 Super Bowl rings.

    The Steelers and Ravens have managed to remain very good while the Bengals, Giants and Falcons have tended towards a slightly above average 0.555 winning percentage.
     
  7. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    I'd like to borrow Dimitroff or Ted Thompson for 2 seasons, or maybe just Julio Jones for a season, or maybe we can get lucky and find Antonio Brown in the draft.
    Good teams draft well, they find beasts.
    And then there are also teams that draft well but are strapped to incompetent coaches like the Niners, Panthers, Hawks, Lions, Bills. That happens too.
    We are the opposite, we have a good HC, but the GM and scouting have been slacking, for decades.
     
  8. WhiteIbanez

    WhiteIbanez Megamediocremaniacal

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    Crazy talk. Time to let Dennis Hickey have his say and bring in a HC. We were out coached yesterday.
     
  9. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    lol at Dennis Hickey
     
  10. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    Ah yes: Talent.

    I am actually encouraged by the job Hickey has done thus far, injuries be damned. In one offseason he managed to shore up LT, RT, RG and S positions. That there is a dude who at the very least has an understanding of what the team's immediate needs are; it remains to be seen if he has the vision to secure the future of the Miami Dolphins.
     
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  11. WhiteIbanez

    WhiteIbanez Megamediocremaniacal

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    Nothing has worked. Tell me what works please.
     
  12. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That ole Albert Einstein knew a thing or two about football.

    "Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result."

    That's where we're at with Joe Philbin and what he's brought to the table...which isn't much. And on a larger scale, bringing in first-time head coaches. Saban, Cameron, Sparano, and Philbin. Paints an ugly picture.

    The next coach of the Miami Dolphins ought to be one who has had head coaching experience. Harbaugh, Ryan.
     
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  13. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    There are plenty of head coaches with experience who fail.
     
  14. WhiteIbanez

    WhiteIbanez Megamediocremaniacal

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    Parcells chose a bad HC.

    Ireland din't do much better. Ross needs to stay out of it and let the GM do his job.
    Laugh all you want but the bottom line is Philbin does not have this team TGFD.
     
  15. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He did well in the offseason. His "in season" performance has been pretty poor. And the RG and S spots are hardly shored up. Shelley Smith has been average to below average. Louis Delmas the same, and he's gone after this year. Smith has one year left.

    Dallas Thomas is STILL starting at right tackle.

    I'll grant you Ja'Wuan James and Jarvis Landry look like very good picks to this point. You can't say that about anyone else, though I personally have hope for Billy Turner.
     
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  16. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    In Miami we've seen more coaches without experience fail.
     
  17. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    I would say "in season" performance is on the coaching and player work ethic. At that point, you can only control what you can control.
     
  18. WhiteIbanez

    WhiteIbanez Megamediocremaniacal

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    Hopefully you know better to judge a draft class in one season.
     
  19. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No. As a GM, you can try and sign a replacement for Dallas Thomas. The Bengals just signed Eric Winston a week ago. You can sign more talented players to stock the CB depth as opposed to just rotating Lowell Rose from the practice squad to the roster, then cutting him and signing R.J. Stanford based on scheme familiarity. You can actually select one of the 6+ TEs they've worked out and/or cycled through the practice squad and bring one to the roster if you're not going to use Gator Hoskins. He re-signed Daniel Thomas, who has for some ungodly reason eaten snaps that should be going to Damien Williams. As MrClean's pointed out, he could have signed Chris Clemons for safety depth for when Reshad Jones was suspended; he'd be really handy now with Delmas done. He didn't. Arizona signed him TODAY.

    Those are all negative marks for Hickey in-season.

    *Edit to this - the Ravens just signed Antoine Cason, TODAY. And if you're saying that a new player wouldn't have time to get acclimated, lest we all forget Michael Thomas in 2013.
     
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  20. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yes.
     
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  21. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't understand why people seem to have this idea that continuity is something that turns ****ty things into good things. You can't sit on a turd and expect it to hatch, and pointing to these examples where a slow start to a career suddenly picks up largely misses the nuances of the individual situation. It ignores the fact that most coaches, players, etc. will be failures and you're chasing a result that basically does nothing other than reinforce that.
     
  22. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    We could jut put out a folding chair out there in place of Thomas and save the cap space, but your points are all valid points.

    Sent from my Transformer TF101 using Tapatalk 4
     
  23. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    This team is handcuffed by an idiotic owner. What a crazy contract ruse to swap ownership like that.

    Would anyone here want to work for Ross? Elitist, new world order dinosaur! I can't stand that guy... The people of Miami should seriously pressure Ross to get out. It has to affect everyone to a degree.

    I'd threaten to watch soccer but c'mon.
     
  24. 3Pmi

    3Pmi IT Specialist Staff Member Administrator

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    Personally, I don't think the data points to a slow start to a career picking up at all. If you look at the list of coaches who failed to make the playoffs their first three years, with the exception of Bellichick, the company is average at best. Wyche, Kubiak, Fisher. Fisher is actually the cream of the crop and he is my definition of a mediocre 8-8 guy. As Parcells is often quoted, if they don't bite as a pup, they don't bite.
     
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  25. 3Pmi

    3Pmi IT Specialist Staff Member Administrator

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    I noticed that as well. One thing I find interesting is the timing of the QB/Coach matchings.

    McCarthy/Farve and and Tomlin/Roethelisberger are the only cases where the coach inherited the QB. Payton tabbed Brees in FA his first season, and the rest all drafted their QB their first season as head coach.
     
  26. OkiePhin

    OkiePhin Well-Known Member

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    Didn't Bill Belichick coach the Browns for 5 years and have 1 winning season before getting canned? I mean I know what you are getting at and it's real impressive work /effort on your part but I looked at the current 5+ year list and though, hold on.. He is a current 5+ year coach but his first 3 years as a HC were under .500

    There was a break though bc he moved to the jets in a different capacity then to NE under Parcels right (it's late and I dont feel like looking)?.. Then took over a gift wrapped team.. I'm not saying the man isnt a great coach, Im saying his first 3 years weren't indicative of that. I didn't go through the other coaches bc I need to get some sleep. Looking at that first list I see 3 right off the bat that may be looking for a job come January. IDK.. It seems like talent is the biggest contributor. Think we would be a playoff team had we landed P. Manning? Yep...

    Nice work btw!!
     
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  27. jdallen1222

    jdallen1222 Well-Known Member

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    Fix the number on Marvin Lewis' overall record in the first list. Says he only has 9 wins.
     
  28. 3Pmi

    3Pmi IT Specialist Staff Member Administrator

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    His Browns tenure is on the longer list of coaching stints from the past. He went 20-28 and didn't make the playoffs before being fired after his 5th year. He, Jeff Fisher, Sam Wyche, Gary Kubiak, and Norv Turner are the only coaches I could find who missed the playoffs their first 3 years and still managed to beat the average coach tenure by sticking with th team for at least five years. He is obviously the one that sticks out from that group but as you point out, he had a couple stops and several changes of scenery along the way to get to where he is now.

    As for your second question, yes some coaches coached before the mentioned stretches, some coached again after. If they aren't listed multiple times for their different teams, it means they didn't last at least 5 years with those other teams. That isn't what I was looking at with my data, though, so I didn't note whether they were a rookie HC during their tenure. My main focus was specific to the question of whether coaches with long tenures started out slow like Philbin but had a team opt for continuity in hopes of improvement, or whether they gave a team reason to keep them around within their first three seasons and thus survived on their own merits rather than continuity. In short, what is the historical precedence for a coach with Philbin's resume being a long-term solution as a head coach?

    The numbers I came up with were something like 5/47 and, outside of Belichick, the company isn't exactly inspiring.
     
  29. 3Pmi

    3Pmi IT Specialist Staff Member Administrator

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    Yeah, I just noticed that too. A 1 got cut off as it should be 109.
     
  30. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    ...and this is one of the biggest reason why I believe Philbin is a poor fit for this team. He's an emotionless, offensive-minded coach of a team that's been defensively talented enough to become similarly dominant to those Balt and Pitt SB teams if only the same level of attention were focused on transcending it. Prior to the start of 2012 training camp, this is what Dansby had to say about Miami's D:
    Then two months later his exuberance changed to this:

    Miami's defense has been the heart and strength of this team, yet Philbum lacks a pulse on it and has essentially made it take a back seat to the side of the ball he knows. Joe inherited the 6th ranked scoring D, but rather than focusing on how inspire, motivate, and blossom it into something truly special, he cared more about making extreme examples out of its members early on in order to prove to all that he has the biggest dick in the building. A real head coach could've accomplished that without use of force or fear mongering, without depriving the defense of its confident, fiery, leader in the middle [Dansby] and its most talented corner [Davis] who has grown into one of the league's best under Chuck Pagano's care. Instead of improving the D, he allowed it to grow complacent, and at times it looks like it's even assumed his flat, unemotional personality. For the sake of the defense, while it's still capable of impacting the game, it needs the infusion that is Rex or Harbaugh who should be able to duplicate with this team what they immediately did with NY and San Fran.
     
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  31. rtl1334

    rtl1334 New Member

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    That first season really set this team back in terms of talent. Because Philbin couldn't handle strong personalities we lost Davis and Marshall and later Dansby and Bush. All either released, not re-signed or traded for below market value. Although some will say Miller replaces Bush, he cannot replicate his receiving ability.

    Injuries aside, we are now looking for a receiver that replicated Marshall's ability. As well, we wouldn't have wasted the money on Wallace. If we kept Dansby, we wouldn't have wasted the money on Ellerbe. We still need a RB that can block and catch. Imagine if we had Grimes and Davis together.

    If anything, these transactions should indict Philbin more than anything that is happening today. If we still had these players, we would have the on-field leadership this team so desperately needs.
     
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  32. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    As someone who's similarly spent gobs of time creating individual threads in the past, I appreciate the work you put into this. Great job man. :knucks:

    People already know my stance on this subject. I personally don't feel Philbin offers enough positive attributes to be worth continuing. As far as team continuity goes, there's no reason its strengths need to be disrupted under a new coach. If there are already pieces in place to win with, then you attempt to win with those pieces. We don't want the defense sold for parts, and we don't want Lazor and his system scrapped, so we simply don't hire an offensive-minded head coach who will have little pulse on and connection with the defense and will want to insert his own offense system. We hire a defensive-minded head coach with experience in a hybrid or 3-4 scheme who can maximize this personnel as it sits while leaving the offense in Lazor's hands. Enter Rex... or perhaps Todd Bowles who I'm guessing some players would love to have back. Either that or we go with a coach with a history of taking the team he's given and first seeing what he can do with it before deciding what changes do or don't need to be made. Enter Harbaugh who didn't need to dismantle San Fran's roster or stick his fingers in its defense to go 13-3 in year 1. In each of Harbaugh's first 4 years, I believe he's had no less than 15 starters originally drafted or signed by San Fran. What he did do, however, is fixed the offensive line overnight with Iupati, Davis, and Boone, turned Alex Smith around overnight, brought in positional coaches capable of getting more out of its players overnight, identified the right coordinators for the existing personnel, changed the tone, mindset, and culture of the team overnight, and added pieces to the existing roster instead of detracting from it. He didn't need to execute a rebuild to improve the Niners scoring offense from 24th to 11th, the defense from 16th to 2nd, the overall point differential from 20th to 4th, the turnover ratio from 15th to 1st, and the record from 6-10 to 13-3.
     
  33. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    Same here. And I hated Dennis Hickey's signing for a bunch of reasons. But lettuce beef reality for a moment...

    - He found a stud T (Yes, I think James is a stud. A rookie, playing at a high level, who can swap either T position is a stud) in James.
    - Did very well to shore up the O-line as much as he could in one season.
    - His second round pick (Landry) has played very well and fits the offense like a glove. Short area quickness and elusiveness is far greater than I thought.
    - Finnegan signing. Hated this signing. Why sign a corpse from The Walking Dead? Now, I'm begging he gets healthy so we can play defense again w/o scheming for his absence.
    - Solid deal for Grimes
    - Knowshon Moreno: Didn't like this signing. Wishing he was still here...
    - Mitchell has been very good at DT
    - Couple of undrafted FA like McCain show promise.

    I didn't love everything he did (especially in the draft... Author Lynch? Why???) but Hickey deserves year two. I'm not saying he's the GM we've been waiting for and every year is going to be Christmas. But I have as much confidence in our GM as I've ever had since Jimmy Johnson. He may not be as good (or maybe he will, who knows?) but he did a solid job in year 1. Hard to ask for much more w/o being totally unrealistic. We've got a ton of cut bait and some immediate needs. Year two should be interesting.
     
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  34. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Very interesting data. I think the question becomes, did those coaches have an advantage of collected talent on their teams prior to their arrival or did they accumulate and develop it themselves.

    For me, that is the hardest part of the current situation. How much of this is due to Philbin and Ireland not being on the same page vs inability of Philbin to coach?

    We all have our opinions and biases. Mine is that I don't like change just for the sake of change. I think tearing it down and rebuilding it every few years becomes part of the vicious cycles that impatient, short sighted, quick fix mindsets crave. This mindset creates a losing cycle.

    When I look at our roster since Philbin's arrival, there are several things that stand out to me:

    One is the QB situation. We brought in a rookie QB who had limited experience in college and was a developmental QB. So much in the NFL is tied to the success of your QB. I think coaches that inherit, get or fall into a franchise QB makes their job much easier. I know RTH has his limitations but I've also seen his growth. With the right talent around him, I do believe this team can be a 10-12 wins. Now I'm not under any grandeur that he will develop into an elite/top 5 QB.

    Two is the heavy reliance of our organization to use free agents to fill the gaps from poor drafting. I think great organizations do use free agency to build but the core of players are drafted. I think this creates a nucleus of strength & team chemistry. The biggest problem with FA, especially big name FA, is they rarely live up to their BIG payday. Wallace has been productive but he's hardly a top 5 WR. Brenden Albert was playing at a high level but he has issues staying healthy for an entire season. Once he went down, we ran into a depth issue which gets us back to the original problem, poor drafting. I think the 2014 draft was the first draft that we've had success with our 1st and 2nd round pick in a long time. It gives me optimism for the future of collecting talent.

    Three are major structural issues with the team. I think we saw that last year with Buffalos dominance against us. While we do have talent at some skill positions and along parts of our DL, we were completely manhandled in the trenches. Since last year, we HAD to completely overhaul our OL. I don't think you can successfully do that in 1 season. We are seeing evidence of that now.

    Defensively, I think we've been exposed for our weaknesses in the trenches. While we can rush the passer some of the time, we are poor against the run. This comes down to an interior defense issues(DT, LB and S). While our DT's are good at pressuring QB's, I don't think they hold their gaps very well against the run. Because of this, it exposes us to another major team weakness, our LB and S play. I think Jelani Jenkins has shown promise and is a long term solution. Koa Misi can't stay healthy. Philip Wheeler takes poor angles and is a poor tackler. Our S seem to be out of position quite a bit and take poor angles.

    I'm not sure if the last part is shceme or talent. Either way, I think we need upgrades at S and LB.

    Long story long, I still feel like we have too many roster holes because of poor drafting and being too reliant on underperforming FA's. You could say that is part of coaching developing talent but it's hard to say that definitively. As a result, and partly due to continuity, I'm willing to wait one more year to see if another year of filling roster holes, development of players in the scheme and ultimately the development of RTH can help us turn the corner.
     
  35. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    Sean Payton, Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, Mike McCarthy, had no prior head coaching experience.


    The issue with the team is, we have been nothing prior to Philbin's arrival. Ownership changes, coaching carousel, No QB, No identity, Poor talent acquisition. Just a big Zero for decades. To fix all that and get to the level of Packers, Pats, Steeler, Ravens, is a monumental task and it cannot be done in a couple of seasons.

    Philbin has fixed it. We got the QB, we got the system, We got talent acquisition and development started, and we are set for long term success. The job he has done is unbelievable.
     
  36. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I ever meet you, I'm buying you a beer.
     
  37. RGF

    RGF THE FINSTER Club Member

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    How long would you like to give Philbin the benefit of the doubt in regard to the structure he inherited? Its quite possible if we hired a better coach from the beginning we could very well be further along in our structure and development then we are now. Philbins on-the-job-training grade should be decisive at seasons end. As far as I'm concerned he has three more games to convince ownership he should keep his job.
     
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  38. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We were nothing before Philbin, what are we now? We have had no identity before Philbin?, what is the identity of this team? You are not kidding when you say unbelievable...exact word I was thinking of.
     
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  39. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Exactly. To me, this is the argument that needs to be brought to Ross to show him hey man... You're GM and HC might be working ok together right now, better than Ireland and Philbin did, but uh... What exactly did they do this year to help us get better with the injuries. They stuck with guys we had, rotated between the PS and the street to bring guys in to fill roles, only because they were comfortable with them, nevermind the fact that they are probably less talented than other guys available. To not even look at Tate or Blount and keep DT is another one I'd add to the list. Not bringing in Winston is another huge one, especially with Dallas Thomas' struggles. Of course, maybe we tried and were turned down. I have a hard time believing that these guys on the street would turn down a resonable offer though from a team that's in playoff contention.

    Sure, there's some speculation and assuming here, but to me all of this shows me that either Hickey isn't doing enough to improve the roster in season when necessary, or Philbin isn't on board with the decision to bring those guys in, because he wants guys he's comfortable with, rather than someone the might need to work with to get up to speed a bit. Either way though, its only hurt this team this year. I get it, try the next man up philosophy, but when its obvious the next man up just isn't getting it done, or isnt as good as someone who may be available, then you have to try and improve the roster, not just sit back and watch.
     
  40. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If I ever meet you , I will buy you a keg!
     
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