The Continuity Conundrum

Dez, your loyalty to Philbin is admirable but I must say that you are thinking with you heart and not your head. You keep talking down about the Harbaugh's yet do you realize that that Philbin is 0- fer against them? Jim Harbaugh..a bad year this year but hard to do better with mutiny...3 conference championship's in a row including 1SuperBowl that he barely lost to brother John. Seriously, how do you argue with that? These guys were brought up in a Football Family with tons of coaching background. No wonder their success..Jim could not make it to the list because he is in year 4..I like Philbin but I am sorry..I want that kind of coach for my football team again..are you too young to remember Coach Shula in his earlier days here..players were always unhappy with his passion and fire and Hardnosed coaching approach but it got us togetherness, fight as one mentality and 3 Super Bowls in a row with 2 victories and I think we would have had more if Czonka, Kiick, and Warfield would not have defected to the WFL. You see, I see that same fire and passion with the Harbaugh's and it IS why I want Jim Harbaugh as our next Coach.

 

i don´t know whats so funny with this, you want to argue that he didn´t do a good job in his first year at the gig ? i mean you are a guy who has that "deion sanders for GM" text coupled with his stupid
face as an avatar...

 

Where do you live ?

 

Shoot..did not see you are from NY, I might owe you a keg! lol I live in Nassau county Long Island.

 

Generally, when a new HC is hired it is because the team underperformed the prior year and the prior coach got fired. In many cases where the new coach came in and had success right away it was with a team that was pretty solid, i.e., 8-8 or better, the year before the disappointing season that got the predecessor fired (or "caused" him to quit/retire). On your list, that was the case with Belichick, McCarthy, Coughlin, John Harbaugh, Tomlin, Payton, Ryan. Not on your list, it would include Kelly, Pagano, Reid, Fox, McCoy, etc. The only one from your list that took over a real perennial loser was Lewis and it took him a few years to turn it around. The Falcons were 7-9 the year before the Petrino disaster, but 8-8 the year before that so they were really basically a .500 team with one aberrational bad year. Like a lot of these teams, the core of this Dolphins team is fairly solid and there is an opportunity for a new coach to take this team to the next level.

 

Einstein was wise to stick to physics. Tom Landry's first five seasons were all losing seasons. what would have happened if he was fired after 3? Really we dont know... cowboys could have still been great. Hence the pickle we are in.Im with Dez for now. Especially if we end up 9-7. Thats a positive trend. Another year of free agency and draft to sure up the team could make a big difference, without having to go through growing pains again.

 

Two ways for coaches to keep tenure: having a franchise-type QB (not elite, just consistently good) or a dominating defense. Rex Ryan obviously fits into the latter category.

 

Tank of gas ✔
Map of Long Island ✔
Empty mug in hand ✔

Ok, on my way.

 

One thing that LEAPS out to me that they almost ALL have in common... PLAYOFFS.

 

With the case of the younger Harbaugh, he really inherited a team with major talent. I honestly thought Singletary would have shaped them into a good team. I think their D was the only thing shaped.

Give it to Harbaugh: he made them winners. While I am not really a fan, one cannot deny the record.

Honestly though, I would not be opposed to Bowles coming in. Reid is impressed and said he will become a very good HC. AZ obviously likes him so much that they made him one of the highest paid coordinators in the league. It's just a matter of time. He has been under some good HCs, as well.

If Philbin is indeed canned, I think Miami will be a good canvas for a good coach. Philbin, give him credit, will at least be leaving the team in better shape than what he started with. I honestly would not be surprised if Philbin got another shot somewhere.

 

One man's trash...

 

I am for taking what ever drugs this man is taking.

 

There is a fine line between continuity and lame duck

 

What does it say about a coach when 2 of the 3 seasons his teams were in great spots ro get to the playoffs...win one of last two last year..and the teams plays its worst games when it matters most.

 

Most of us that are in favor of retaining Philbin aren't necessarily disagreeing with you, we're just recognizing the #1 trend in the past 15 years of data.

If you still find yourself so excited by the prospect of some new coach--an offseason addiction Miami fans have come to have--think about it this way...

If you fire Philbin, there is maybe a 1 in 20 chance you get Harbaugh. I also think Rex Ryan will be a very low probability acquisition.

Remember, the FACT is that we wanted Harbaugh and went after him yet had to settle for Philbin.

So we can talk all day long about buying ourselves a new Porsche but if our everyman salaries make that a very unlikely, if not impossible future, we're blowing smoke.

The ironic thing is that while we've constantly had to settle throughout our numerous coaching searches, people exclude that very likely future from their projections.

If we choose to fire Philbin, there's probably an 80-90% chance that we wind up with another name in the laundry list of guys we've seen over the last 15 years.

When you realize that, you will realize that all these big names are merely wishful thinking.

The conversations about Harbaugh or Rex are very, very different from the conversation about firing Philbin.

In my mind, these talks about Harbaugh and Rex are entertaining, but the conversation about firing Philbin is a serious one with very meaningful consequences.

Even in the extremely rare case that we did hire Harbaugh, he's is not going to retain Lazor which means Tannehill will be forced into his 3rd OC in 4 seasons. That basically means Tannehill is done.

On the other hand, the 80-90% odds are that firing Philbin means taking a huge risk with a downside that looks very much like a basement team with another broken QB.

This is why in the world of business, continuity has an incredibly high value.

The average football fan will never appreciate that, but people who as much time as we do on a forum should.

 

philbin is safe no matter what transpires the last three games?

 

Great post. You seem to have a level head and put forth some good common sense. I disagree that continuity should have more value than taking a chance to be better or great. If Philbin does not offer traits that make us better(obviously still up for debate) as a head coach, Do we retain him because we might not be able to get Harbaugh or Ryan? Or do we make a decision on his body of work? regardless whether the possible new coach keeps coaches or comfortable somewhat successful systems in place? I am still on the fence..I could see benefits to keeping Joe or firing him. I am not afraid to cut ties when all I have to be better than is .500 with the next coach. I am also not afraid to keep this group together because I do see some difference and improvement on the field.

 

I've made it clear that in my eyes these are the dying days of the war.

The last 3 games are irrelevant because not only are we out of contention but we're not playing spoiler to anyone.

At this point, it's on the players to stay motivated.

If the players choose to give up, it's on them.

This defense is becoming mentally weak. They nearly gave away our shot at the Play-offs with their performance against the NYJ.

We all know that if we were facing a decent QB, our defense would've been shredded to oblivion and would've yielded more than 13 points.

If the players don't show up against the Vikes and Jets, I'll be pissed, because that has nothing to do with the coaches.

The coaches aren't going to stop coaching and stop game-planning.

If the players don't want to show up and execute it with passion, they'll be the ones making excuses to the media.



To answer your question though, I think the risk of firing Philbin is huge. While there is a low probability upside, it would seem to be wishful thinking.

My vote would be to retain Philbin and Hickey for another year and see what this team can do with more capable Guards and an influx of DT/LB talent.

 

According to some our coach should be Cam Cameron and our GM Jeff Ireland!! That's some Continuity.....

 

Thanks for the support!

Keep in mind that whatever I say in support of Philbin...I'm not asking for another 5 years.

I really just want to see if Philbin and Hickey can replicate what they did this past offseason.

If we do that again, we WILL fix our problems.

I laid out in another thread our schedule and showed how by being the same team, we'll be 10-6 or 11-5.

I'm not asking for much...just a little bit of perseverance.

 

So, do you not realize that using an expansion team to try to prove this point is specious?

 

I've asked this question to those who are wanting philbin to get another year, there is three games left, what does he have to do to get that next year and what would have to happen for you to fire him?

if he wins out I've said ill reconsider..

 

Haha...fair enough I guess.

If we beat New England this week, I will be advocating we sign Philbin to a 10-year deal immediately.

(1) We typically lose to Belichick late in the year
(2) We typically lose to Brady late in the year
(3) We never beat NE twice in a year
(4) We'll be on the road
(5) It will be very cold
(6) Our secondary is decimated
(7) NE has fixed their O-line issues so our advantage from week 1 is gone
(8) Our D is giving up huge rushing totals which the Pats will surely exploit
(9) We just fell out of Play-off contention so morale will be down
(10) NE can lock up the division with the win


If Philbin wins despite all that he better start getting some support. I'd give us about a 5% chance of winning in this game.

Now on the other hand, if we lose to the Vikings and/or Jets, I'll know something about the players that I didn't want to because those are games we should definitely win.

As long as we beat the Jets at home to close out the season, we will have gone 4-2 in the division which would support my claim that we are headed for an 11-5 record next year.

 

We're not officially out of contention, on life support but still alive. If the players pack it in during these last three games then the coaches didnt do their job either. The only way I would reluctantly retain Philbin is if the team gives a solid effort and plays a competitive game in New England and then beat both the Vikings and Jets. Keep in mind I was a Philbin supporter but I havent seen enough positives to give him a free pass after this season.

Also, you state it wont be Philbins fault if the players give up since the playoffs are all but out of reach. I think that falls back on Philbin also since he was the one who guided this team to a 7-6 record to begin with. Why should Philbin be excused of blame these last three games? He was the HC who failed to guide this team to a better record up to this point. If we play poorly the last three games you say its all on the players, were a mediocre 7-6 after 13 games, whose fault is that? The HC should be held accountable. These last three games are far from irrelevant.

 

Ha!, I like this....Are you kidding me? Do you think that I have not thought long and hard about the pros/cons with Philbin? Do you think that I also might have vast experience in the business world? I also use Common Sense! If we lose Tanny ( which I highly doubt ) by getting rid of Philbin, then so be it. We need to draft and develop a back up this year in the case of injury and for competition. In the case that we were to land Harbaugh, I think he keeps Lazor...especially if he likes Tanny. I realize there are obstacles to bringing in and hiring any candidate that we have interest in but it would be depressing for us not to try. I like Philbin but honestly after much debate I have come to the conclusion that we must move on in order to get to the prize. Philbin is not a top coach and I honestly believe that when we part ways with him, he will never be a HC again and there is nothing wrong with that...some people have it and some don't. Also I have been a Dolfan since 66 So I do remember the last 15-20 years and we are in the same boat !! It unfortunately is time to move on. There are quite a few coaches out there both College and Professional that I would bring in for interviews. I would sit down with Joe now and let him know of my plans and start bringing in coaches ( college ) right now so that we can get a jump on the process and I would offer Philbin the Director of the Analytics Dept.and Asst.GM Position.As always, you and everyone else are entitled to your opinion, this is just my Humble Opinion.

 

Now I get it. If we beat the Patriots then Philbin deserves praise. If we lose to the Jets and/ or the Vikings the players are to blame. Ok then.

 

If we beat the Pats, I think everyone should get a pay raise, ok? It's just not going to happen though.

When you talk about Vikings, eh, that could go either way.

In regards to the Jets, you shouldn't need coaches to do anything. If we can't walk on the field cold and beat the Jets with what they have right now, something's wrong.

If we lose to the Jets, I promise you that people here are going to be talking about our growing problem at DT.

 

To get a next year? For me, make a Super Bowl appearance. He should have been fired with Ireland last year.

 

what...so if we win out you want to retain, if we lose to the pats and to either the jets or the Vikings he's gone?.. Is that accurate?, sorry still couldn't figure out where you stand?

 

Wth are you talking about..lol.

what scenarios wins and losses wise will you retain, what scenario will you fire..?

 

Dude your all over the place..

let me make this simple.

If we beat the pats then lose to the Vikings or the jets you want him back....yes or no?

If we lose to the pats, then win our next two at home you want him back...yes or no?

 

He IS all over the place. The only thing I can gather from his posts is that Philbin should be retained at all costs at this point because any losses in the last three games fall squarely on the players shoulders, Philbins not to blame ( even though Philbin guided his players to a mediocre 7-6 record thus far. Go figure).

 

If you put his last three posts together you would have a scene from scanners..

Obviously the dude is smart about his craft and engineering and all that, but football is not that.

 

The problem is that technically the next game matters a lot. New England is now the biggest game of the season, in all reality its bigger than Baltimore. 10-6 still gets us in most likely. It just doesnt feel that way because fans have given up and pegged it as a loss.

 

"Scanners", true lol. Yeah,he has the smarts but football wise I'm not sure I understand him enough to even agree or disagree with him.

 

This seems like a good forum filled with tons of fans who take the time to post every day which is why I joined.

If what I've said several times in different threads isn't clear to you, just ask me about it point blank.

 

If there's one thing I've learned in life it's that you can take the most hardline stance on something and there's still someone in the room who'll say your flip-flopping on something.

It's fine if we disagree, but I've spelled out over and over my thoughts on Philbin. To me, he's an average coach whose upside seems to be in personnel development.

I want Philbin and Hickey to put together another off-season so we can evaluate whether or not last years acquisition of talent was a fluke.

For me, I'm not concerned with the outcome of the next 3 games because at this point, I don't need anymore information to try and interpret this team or its coach.

I think it's very clear who the Dolphins are. They are a team that needs a few pieces. I'm much more interested in information that tells me whether they'll acquire those pieces this off-season.


From what I can gather DJ, you want to make a lot out of these last 3 games. I don't really understand that because we've already seen 45 games. I'm curious as to what you're looking for exactly because I don't know what could come out of these 3 final games that can't be deduced from the last 45 or more importantly the last 13.