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Playoff Odds and Probabilities

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Dec 11, 2014.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I know most of you have already written off our Dolphins this season and in some ways, I can't blame you. Last week was a tough one and as we stand now, Miami has about a 15.5% chance of seeing the post season. I found an interesting playoff calculator tonight though that shows if we beat New England this week, our playoff chances increase by 36%....which gives us a 52.1% overall chance to see the post season. While it's not optimal by any means, I thought it would be helpful to point out that our season DEFINITELY is not over and there's still life left for Miami if they rebound.

    Here's the link to the calculator. It's pretty cool because it also shows how any one game affects all of the other divisional teams.

    If we win this week, it's literally a coin toss whether we get in or not, so it's time to put Baltimore in the rear-view mirror and get fired up for the biggest game of the season- perhaps the biggest game of the decade. We've beat the Pats twice in a row because they give teams all the short routes, and Tannehill is going to have a great afternoon. Finnegan is returning along with several other key components as well, and my sources in Davie tell me that Miami is gearing up for a war in the New England blizzard this Sunday. So Dol-fans, it's put up or shut up time...and we need to get loud.
     
    OkiePhin, dolfan7171, ElNino and 3 others like this.
  2. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    You are a breath of fresh air, that's what I'm talking about! I can't wait to shut all these haters up with a win in New England, then it's smooth sailing with our last 2 games at home. The teams ahead of us have a tougher schedule than we do, I seriously wouldn't be surprised if we run the table and get in the playoffs. Our pass rush has got to show up in New England, if it does, we will win. I hope to see Jordan on Gronk too! Finnegan is back! This game is the difference between 10-6 and 9-7.
     
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  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I'm all for doom and gloom on Sunday nights and even into Monday mornings, and then it's right back to "Any Given Sunday" and hoping that the best of our Fins take the field. Because let's face it...New England could beat us by 50 on a good day, but we could beat them by 70 on a good day as well. We match up extremely well against them though and like you said, our pressuring Brady has been the key to victory for years now. So I'm definitely not to the point of writing anything off for 2014 and you guys shouldn't either....because that's not what being a fan is all about.

    So let's have some sunny optimism up in here....even if it is mildly delusional! :lol:
     
    dolfan7171 likes this.
  4. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    I don't get it, why do you guys want the Phins to make playoffs? Makes no sense to me, they are not ready. Especially the OC, he can't playcall regular season games. Who are we going to beat with this QB, this Oline, these LBs, this secondary, with Wallace and Hartline at the boundary? Nobody! Not in the playoffs.
     
  5. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    It wouldn't surprise me at all if Miami won this Sunday. Setting up the perfect deja vu scenario of needing to just beat 2 inferior opponents in should win situations only to stroke out.
     
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  6. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    I will never understand people like you. Go be a Jets fan, you'll be happy with them, they won't make the playoffs for a decade. Any team can win it all if they get in the playoffs. And any fan should want their team in the playoffs. Congratulations for being the first person I've ever wanted to ignore since I've been here.
     
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  7. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    It wouldn't surprise me if you would be happy about that so you can start some "i told you so threads".
     
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  8. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    Actually even though I'd think some posters here want that, I have the feeling blitz would rather succeed.
     
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  9. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    As long as there is a chance...
     
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  10. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Absolutely. I would be ecstatic if this team made the playoffs. I want nothing but for them to succeed. All of them. Players, coaches, etc. Believe me, my fragile ego would be just fine if I were proven wrong.
     
  11. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Exactly how are we not ready? Over the past 8 weeks, we've faced 6+ top ten defenses and held our own in every contest (save maybe Baltimore). Our offense has struggled lately, but you also have to look at the Jets/Ravens defensive schemes that take away the short passing routes....which is a big problem for our QB. We don't face those issues against the Pats or Vikes, so you're basically going negative just to be negative. Because we stand a very good chance of finishing 3-0 and getting into the playoffs...despite the past two weeks.

    I understand you're a glass half empty type and I respect that....so maybe you can have the same respect for the "half full" folks too? Because it's really a two-way street.
     
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  12. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    That's def something Monst would do :shifty:
     
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  13. VanDolPhan

    VanDolPhan Club member Club Member

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    The reason people aren't optimistic is pretty much our December history and the fact this team just flat out looks tired and dead the last couple weeks. Miami in no way deserves blind optimism until it can show it can win in December. We've gone through this too many times for that bull.
     
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  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Sure, but let's apply that same logic to other things. Some of us play the lottery and lose every single week of our lives, yet we still dream of spending that jackpot. Why? There's a .000000000000001% chance of winning, so we spend the two bucks and cross our fingers.

    Some of us smoke cigarettes, drink alcohol, chug down sodas and do 100 other things that have been proven to drive us to an early grave. We know it's bad for us YET we think that we will defy the odds....even though nobody ever does. Why?

    Now look at the Dolphins, which have a better than 50% chance of being in the playoffs if they just beat a team that they've already whipped two times in the past year. Of these three things, the Dolphins winning is the longshot we shouldn't even consider? Even though it's odds are thousands of times more likely?

    See where I'm going with this....
     
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  15. ElNino

    ElNino Well-Known Member

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    On the contrary, I don't get why any fan would NOT want their team to make the playoffs. That's why they play regular season games! Anything can happen, but even a one and done is useful. Next year, the team would have playoff experience under their belt if they were to somehow make it in this year. Plus i'd love to watch a Miami playoff game again, it has been way too long.
     
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  16. DeDolfan

    DeDolfan Premium Member Luxury Box

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    IMO, our best chance to get in is for us to win out and NE to lose out. Too many scenarios for the WC to be very likely. Too many in the WC hunt with too many things having to happen which I don't see happening. Plain and simple, we really screwed the pooch against Baltimore. The playoffs were there for us and we just let it go. Oh well, there is always next year............. again. That phrase has been used to much over the last 10 yrs or so. :(
     
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  17. DeDolfan

    DeDolfan Premium Member Luxury Box

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    But then again, our chances would be much better if we started the season at 0-6.
     
  18. Paul 13

    Paul 13 Chaotic Neutral & Unstable Genius Staff Member

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    the experience of going to the playoffs would be very helpful to the younger players.
     
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  19. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Dude are you ****ing high?You were just debating with me on a different post how great you thought the team was.
     
  20. dolfan7171

    dolfan7171 Well-Known Member

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    If we can play our best football, there isn't many teams that is going to be in the playoffs that could stop us. I understand we are banged up with multiple injuries, but we have some players we just drafted that could help us win. Plus NE hasn't played us with Dion Jordan if he were to play a strong game. I believe not only will we win vs NE but will get into the playoffs and then watch out! We have an equal chance at going to the big dance!!
     
  21. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Guys..dez is clearly here to just troll. Nothing he says is even logical.. Its so bat **** cuckoo bananas it actually cracks me up sometimes. I think he may just be trying satire.. And damned if alot of the time your left with.. Now where in the hell did he come up with that. Maybe Dez is one of Sams comic buddies..
     
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  22. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Oh and someone else used the phrase bat**** cuckoo bananas and it cracked me up.. So I used it.. Who ever that was..
     
  23. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    if we can win on sunday we will most def win our next two...Its going to be really tough though but I'm excited to watch.
     
  24. PhinsMondayNitro

    PhinsMondayNitro Active Member

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    Great thread, I am one of the few who believe they have a great chance to make the playoffs. Win this game & everything will most likely fall into place.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  25. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    Obviously you haven't read enough of dez's comments yet to realize that he only writes on this forum in an attempt to get a response like you gave him.

    He isn't a Dolphin fan. He merely loves to write his sarcastic comments and I am sure he loves it when true Dolphin fans actually bite on this sarcasm. Eventually everyone will realize that dez is not a Dolphin fan, but only a poster who would love nothing better than to see the Dolphins remain a mediocre team for years to come.

    He probably is a fan of the Jets or Patriots, but it really doesn't matter. As long as people realize he isn't really a fan of the Dolphins, they won't take anything he posts on this forum too seriously in the future.
     
  26. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    Part of me thinks he's serious. If he's not...I feel bad he wastes his free time every day on a Dolphin forum.

    However the majority of me agrees with you.
     
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  27. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    I've always just assumed he's a joke account of another poster. But then I still see people taking him (or maybe her?) seriously.
     
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  28. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    Miami beat NE in December of last year, no?
     
  29. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    I think he makes some good points. And I like that he's not afraid to say what he believes, even in the face of open hostility.
     
  30. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    Yes they did, but that game was in Miami and not in New England. If the game this week was in Miami, I would give the Dolphins a decent chance to win the game.

    The Patriots just don't lose games at home. Especially in December when home field advantage throughout the playoffs is on the line. While anything is possible, I give the Dolphins less than a 5% chance of winning this weekend.
     
  31. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I figured that out a while ago about DEZ...all about getting a response. Contradicts himself in every other thread. Once in a while(a long while) will present a coherent factual thought...only to get back to his act shortly there after. I barely give his posts a look anymore, very predictable. BTW, he brought his schtick to another Dolphin forum last night, you know which one, and dropped even more ridiculous comments than he usually does here.The reaction he got was disbelief and horror...just what he was looking for. Took his act on the road because his material went stale here. Hope he gets what he is looking for there and builds a home in that new neighborhood.
     
  32. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    If you go back and read his various comments, you will realize that he constantly contradicts previous statements he had posted.

    He says what he says only because it is all based on sarcasm. He doesn't take himself seriously so you should've take him seriously either.

    No one who sees him for what he is should be hostile to him. He is no more than the David Letterman of this forum and someone who just likes the reaction he gets for making the absurd posts he frequently does.
     
  33. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    I admit I was fooled at first too. I give people the benefit of the doubt and I just thought he was trying to figure out how he really felt about this team.

    Eventually I caught on to his sarcasm and realized he just wanted the attention and cared nothing about the Dolphins. The fact anyone takes his posts seriously anymore just makes me shake my head.
     
  34. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    How could some of his responses or thoughts not be met with hostility..honestly. Although I do not always agree with what you write Piston, would rather discuss with you any day of the week. You are honest and your thoughts are heart felt. You believe in what you post and stand behind it, never looking for just a reaction.
     
  35. TooGoodForDez

    TooGoodForDez Deion Sanders for GM

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    Come at me bro! I love Philbin, I love this offense, I feel like for the first time in decades there is hope we can win it all. I'll be damned if I will allow negative Nancies to spoil my rare moments of enjoyment of Dolphins football by calling for power football coaches again, taking me backwards into a state of fan misery. Hell nah!
     
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  36. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    Gotta see if Finnegan, Misi & Taylor are healthy, if they are I think we have a 1-5 maybe 1-6 shot.
     
  37. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    He's over the top, but in a positive way. I gotta admit it's refreshing at times b/c I feel like the overall mood here can be a tad bit on the negative side, especially after losses. I guess the easy solution would be to stop losing :lol:.
     
  38. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    Nothing will spoil Dez's party! Deserves a fist bump :knucks:

    :lol:
     
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  39. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Hahaha!! I love it! I lol-ed, so I fist bumped.
     
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  40. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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