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Playoff Odds and Probabilities

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Dec 11, 2014.

  1. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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  2. Phins Up Wins Up

    Phins Up Wins Up Banned

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    Yeah I realized Dez was a troll and he lost all credibility with me when the other day I saw him in a post say Dan Marino was terrible the 5 years he watched him play.
     
  3. OkiePhin

    OkiePhin Well-Known Member

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    Good post and just what the doctor ordered to get me through my last day of work tomorrow. Now I'm pumped for Sunday!!
     
  4. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    For what it's worth, I don't take any happiness out of saying the Dolphins are finished.

    I've repeated that too many times for my own taste if I can be honest. In fact, the only reason I had to go on about it was because DJ and his buddy in the other thread seemed to take huge offense at what I said before subsequently electing to troll me.

    Honestly, I'm a very optimistic guy and I'd be disappointed if more optimistic (and realistic) people didn't join in. Forums always seem to attract that hyper-opinionated.

    I'd love to see Miami play well on Sunday. I hate it as much as anyone and hope that by some miracle the Dolphins get in and manage a Play-off appearance.

    However, as you pointed out that odds are roughly 1 in 7 that we get in and rather than building up momentum against two bad teams before facing the Patriots, we're coming off a demoralizing loss and playing on the road against what is by conservative measure one of the best 3 teams in the NFL at this moment.

    The odds are what they are.

    If we beat the Patriots, this will all become a very interesting conversation but doing that is going to require much more than what it did in week 1.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  5. RickyNeverInhaled

    RickyNeverInhaled Well-Known Member

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    Odds mean nothing to me. We beat them the last 2 times we've played them. Wake and Vernon always have good games against New England, all the Dolphins have to do is pressure Brady and put his butt on the ground. We completely shut them down in the 2nd half the first game this season, we did that with none of our starting LB's playing. Football is all about matchups and we matchup well with the Pats.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  6. Phins Up Wins Up

    Phins Up Wins Up Banned

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    Listen up here y'all, we gonna beat the Pats 3 times in a row and sweep them for the season and then make the playoffs.
     
    KeyFin and RickyNeverInhaled like this.
  7. MAFishFan

    MAFishFan Team Tannehill

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    I'd love nothing more than a season sweep of the Patriots, but look: Thomas still at RT in practice. Secondary is banged up. There's been no pass rush lately whatsoever. The tackling, good lord the tackling. The LBs suck and who exactly is going to cover and tackle Gronkowski? Jordan? Please. I'd love to be wrong, I hope I'm wrong, but considering everything that's been bad with this team, it just doesn't add up to a W. Good news is, it'll be sunny and 43.
     
  8. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    I love how dismissive you're of DJ covering Gronk, when he shut him down last year. 2 catches for chump change.
     
  9. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Hey, I'm an eternal optimist as well Tuesday-Sunday...I take my Mondays off to pout when we lose and then I'm right back on the horse again. Because it usually takes me about 24 hours to realize that despite a tough loss, we have beaten and competed with some very good teams this season. Our defense has had stretches of greatness. Tannehill has shown that he can respond to pressure (the internal kind when a coach is breathing down your neck and threatening to start Moore), Miller has flourished and this team BELIEVES that they are a playoff caliber team. And you know what? Believing is the single most important aspect of football and this team has the mentality to rebound...plus they're playing the Pats.

    Now, you look at New England and see a top team in the league, but the Miami Dolphins see something completely different. They see a defense that is pathetically weak in the middle of the field, plus one that struggles to get to the quarterback. Sure, Revis and company are ball-hawgs on those 20+ yard passes but we don't throw any of those....so they're sitting back waiting for the deep ball and giving up everything inside 4-7 yards. They are the PERFECT opponent for Miami because everywhere they're weak, we're strong, and that's why we've toppled them twice.

    The match-up gets even better though because our front 7 has a special place in their hearts for Tom Brady. Wake goes into beast mode for every match-up and our secondary challenges Brady to throw at every turn, because there's nothing like making a hall of fame quarterback look stupid. Did I mention Mr. Finnegan, who's three games from retiring but still thinking that he can play at Pro-Bowl levels? Oh yes, he's mad as hell about sitting for a month and he will be playing with a chip on his shoulder too. All bad news for New England.

    So screw what the national media says...we Dolphins fans know who the true favorite is in this match-up. Because the Pats hate playing us more than any other team- our entire offense was built to beat them and expose every crack in their Super Bowl armor. So hold your head up and get ready for this weekend....because we're about to be right back into this playoff race with the national media saying that they knew it all along.
     
    RickyNeverInhaled likes this.
  10. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I want to come back to this post on sunday after 4:30 and tell you how incredibly wrong I was and how amazingly you were right...I swear, I hope thats the case. I never want to be more wrong. But, I know in my heart of hearts, and also using my eyes and my mind, what you wrote, will not even remotely happen. This post will be the 1st place I visit after the game. Not to gloat..just hoping to admit how wrong and how little I know about this team.
     
  11. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Hey, I might be completely wrong....but that's what is so much fun about a forum. You make predictions based on what you've seen and if you're wrong, then you try all over again the following week. Like I said earlier though, I've been 9-2 on the season so far and Miami NEEDS this win. For Philbin and company, it's not about playoff hopes either...it's about job security. Since this is the biggest must-win game in Philbin's career and we've already toppled these jokers twice in a row (plus what you just quoted me on), I simply can't bet against Miami here. They need this game far too badly and it will legitimize or topple the whole season.

    If I'm wrong though then you won't have to gloat, because I'll be the first one back in this forum as well talking about what an idiot I was for believing. That's okay though...let's just hope I'm right and everyone's happy.
     
  12. Alex13

    Alex13 Tua Time !!! Club Member

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  13. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Thanks for the reply!

    Clearly you think the team is super-motivated and emotional right now.

    In terms of actual football, the only thing I would disagree with is the notion that we are going to match up well against New England.

    We're giving up huge gains on the ground and they are very capable of taking advantage of that. I'd be surprised if they had a game plan that was Brady-centric.

    Also, the deep stuff is where Revis is vulnerable. He's a press-corner with medium speed which means that the Wallace-type is his worst enemy. However, we're not using Wallace to stretch the field so our advantage is gone and Revis will be allowed to shut down whoever he's up against. If not for a blown assignment and a crazy-lucky catch in the end zone, Wallace's stats wouldn't have been and we wouldn't have won by the margin we did.

    It's fine to say we'll compete. Maybe we will. I hope we do. In some areas we do match up well.
     
  14. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    Bottom line...the season is on the line now more than it has been at any point.

    What you hope is that the players realize that and put forth a heroic effort. I don't trust Philbin to coach us to a win but honestly talent wise (injuries aside) I believe we are very close to NE. Its the BB vs Philbin factor that makes the teams what they are currently.

    So what needs to happen is that effort must bridge the coaching gap in order to win.
     
  15. finwin

    finwin Active Member

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    Maybe they're actually practicing some plays this week. They didn't practice last week and it showed in the same shot gun dump off play that we use 70% of the time. That's what happens to this team every year. They stop growing and start losing.
     
  16. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Listening to Omar on BigOs show today, he really made it sound like Wallace had cashed it in. Said the Ravens game was the final straw. I guess he's frustrated on how they are missing big plays. Now I can understand frustration, but Wallace isn't looking to make a big play IMO. He's looking for Tannehill to hit him Deep and all he's gotta do is run under it. In other words he's looking for Tannehill to make a big play. Laying out and maybe catching the ball in the endzone last week would be Wallace making a big play.
     
  17. finwin

    finwin Active Member

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    Lazor said deep shot play calls are dialed up for Wallace but we probably take about 1 out of 4 of them, check down half and sacked and inaccurate the other half.
     
  18. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    That was me he was feeding that BS to. And I didn't even reply. It wasn't worthy of a response...
     
  19. Phins Up Wins Up

    Phins Up Wins Up Banned

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    Yep obvious troll. Lol!
     
  20. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    And yet half the posts in this thread are talking about him....which means that he wins.

    Here's a thought- maybe we should stop taking the bait and letting him win...
     

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