The Continuity Conundrum

what a gross mischaracterization of ''the people here'' as you call us.

Thats the first I've heard him being called a ridiculously inept idiot bumbling moron..ive been here since him taking the job, sounds like a bunch of hyperbole.

 

Yes yes, none of the criticism of Philbin is warranted. He's clearly a HOF head coach who in three years has catapulted Miami's improved roster from Sparano's .475 record to the .489 juggernaut we see before us, and Joe accomplished such an impressive feat by taking Sparano's inability to win tight 4th games and difficulty in preserving leads and duplicated it to perfection.

{read the following paragraph as if I'm sighing} I know I know, you've said it before, if only Albert & Moreno didn't get hurt and if Miami had a better guard we'd be in the playoffs. If only this were Madden Football and Philbin could turn off injuries and change player ratings since apparently it's only the 100% healthy teams with no soft spots on the roster who make the playoffs. Yes yes, as soon as Joe has the quintessential roster, the best O-line in the league, and the most ideal coaching situation imaginable, Miami is in the playoffs {end sigh}. You call us scapegoaters? There's scapegoating occurring here that's for sure, only it's not by us. It's by you, scapegoating the team for Philbin's shortcomings when other coaches attain success with equal or worse rosters and do so in quick fashion.

Not only has Philbin not been successful but he's had 3 years to change it, and the team's 1 extra win per season during his tenure is directly proportional to the improvement of the roster each year. Miami was 6-9 during Sparano's final season. Considering Tony was fired, it's only logical for his replacement to improve the team by at least 1 win on coaching merit alone.

But it doesn't stop there. Going from 2011 to 2012, the roster was young and featured ascending players in many areas, while not being offset by players on the decline. That's good for at least 1 additional win in 2012.

Wait, but it keeps going. Miami was 7-9 in 2009 and '10, and the 2011 team finished on a 6-3 note, showing they were markedly better than their 6-10 record suggests. This translates to Miami being 7-9 or 8-8 in 2012 simply from regression to the mean, and that's WITH Sparano and with his roster and coaching staff maintaining status quo.

But there's more. Miami improved the QB situation in 2012. That alone should account for at least 1 additional win. I mean, if you think Andrew Luck, in his mortal state as a rookie with the NFL's 4th worst passer rating, worst completion percentage, and 3rd most interceptions, was the sole reason for Indy's 9 win improvement from 2011 to '12, then Miami's upgrade at QB should've provided at least 1 additional win.

C'mon, how does this work, because you're not making sense. Let me map out your incongruity for you. Last year, Tannehill played roughly on par with Luck's rookie season. Ryan was a more efficient passer, threw more TDs, less INTs, and even matched Luck's 4 fourth quarter comeback wins. With that in mind, if you believe Philbin is better than Pagano [which you suggest] and also believe that Luck was most responsible for Indy's sudden 9 win increase while playing at a similar level to Tannehill of 2013, then why did Miami go 8-8 last year while Indy went 11-5 in 2012? The team Philbin inherited was better than the one Pagano/Arians received, so don't even try to go that route of excuse-making. If you're giving most all of Indy's 2012 turnaround and 9 win improvement to Luck, then by default you have to similarly give some of Miami's 8 wins of 2013 directly to Tannehill. How many wins does that leave for Philbin? Negative 1? Zero? I know you'd give 4 of Indy's 11 wins to Luck that occurred in conjunction with his 4 4th quarter comebacks, and then you'd say that without those wins Pagano/Arians would be 7-9, so you'd have to do the same for Tannehill in this exercise, which leaves Miami 4-12 last year under Philbin in accordance with to your belief system.


Before you start in on your blind excuse-making, you should be aware that Indy's O-line and ground game were a mess in 2012, rushing for 3.8 ypc and getting Luck sacked and hit 141 times, MOST in the NFL, 6 more times than Tannehill last year, and 40 more times than Tannehill is on pace for this year. Equally messy, Indy's offense and defense ranked 18th & 21st in scoring, 23rd & 30th in turnovers, and 20th in points differential at -30 which alone suggested an expected win-loss record of 7.2-8.8. Yet Pagano/Arians overachievingly finished 11-5. In contrast, Philbin inherited a team ranked 20th in scoring, 6th in scoring D, 18th in offensive turnovers, 26th in defensive turnovers, and 14th in points differential [+16] which suggested an expected win-loss record of 8.5-7.5, yet Philbin underachievingly finished 7-9.

Oh, but there's still more. Philbin restaffed the team. New coordinators, news positional coaches, and an opportunity to distance the offense even further from Dan Henning's abomination should've won at least 1 additional game.

All of the aforementioned should've yielded 4+ additional wins in 2012, yet Philbin's team gained just 1 additional win which Sparano would've gotten via regression to the mean alone. Where were the additional wins from the ascending roster, upgrade at QB, replacement of fired HC, and retooled staff? There were none. 1 additional win from regression to the mean, 1 additional win from an ascending roster, and 1 additional win from an upgrade at QB should've had us at 9-7 or 8-8 with zero change in HC or staff, but Philbin went 7-9. Year 2 should've seen a bump by 2 wins to 10-6 or 11-5 amidst growing continuity, improved QB play, improved coaching, and better familiarity and cohesiveness within the offensive and defensive systems, yet Philbin went 8-8 and had the team behind where it should've been during his first year.

Harbaugh immediately improved San Fran by 7 wins to 13-3.
Chip Kelly immediately improved Philly by 6 wins to 10-6.
Andy Reid immediately improved KC by 9 wins to 11-5.
Pagano/Arians immediately improved Indy by 9 wins to 11-5.
Arians immediately improved Zona by 5 wins to 10-5.
Harbaugh immediately improved Balt by 6 wins to 11-5.
Mike Smith immediately improved Atlanta by 7 wins to 11-5.

Not only was Philbin unable to improve the team by more than 1 win but he inherited a team that finished a strong 6-3 and needed the least amount of additional wins to break .500. Now he's in year 3 still in a fight to break .500. Yup you're right, Philbin is a God among coaches and we're too irrationally blind by hatred to see it.

blah blah blah. 29-15-1 compared to Philbin's 22-23.... but feel free to continue making excuses ad nauseam.

 

and? Water is wet, grass is green, and talent affects wins and losses. This isn't breaking news or a knock against coaches. What's next, should we reword your post, substituting Marino, Dolphins, and Shula for Luck, Colts, and Pagano?.... or perhaps Montana, 49ers, and Walsh? I guess Shula & Walsh would be average coaches if they weren't paired with elite QBs, eh? Need I remind you that Shula failed to break 8 wins 5 times with one of the greatest QBs of all time? It's not JUST the QB. You still need great coaching and/or surrounding talent plus the right chemistry. Bill Walsh didn't average 11.3 wins and 5.7 losses during his 6 straight playoff seasons by having an average roster around Montana. Unlike Pagano, Walsh's team was LOA-DED. The Colts started last year with a roster of average overall talent, and Pagano took it to a better record with 2nd year Andrew Luck than Indy had in 2011 with a veteran Peyton Manning.


... and you could give Philbin to Indy and the Colts wouldn't look as good as they do with Pagano.

Bruce Arians had Luck taken away from him when he went to Zona but he still improved them to 10-6 and now 11-3.

 

so let me get this strait..in one thread you told us your mind was made up ALREADY, and that your were going to retain Philbin regardless of the results of the last four games, that the rest of us are basically simpletons for thinking about moving in a new direction, and, try to enlighten us on the one of the best coaches this league has seen..good thing you put those quotations around the word motivate, I got your point so much better with them..

 

Thanks for putting together the list. There are a couple of devil's advocate questions. Can you really compare coaching records before the salary cap with records after the salary cap? Also, is there a way to measure and compare the starting talent base for each coach?

 

Remember that back in the day players hardly swapped teams. In a way it was harder to coach. You had the draft and trades pretty much.

 

In what world is it easier to find 53 self-motivated players who are talented enough to win than to find one motivating hands on figure?

 

I would think it'd be easier to find "one motivating hands-on figure." In fact, I wrote last week about how the accomplishments of successful groups can often be traced to a few core individuals.

Then again, when you go after coaches like that it's hard to tell the Bill Cowher's from the Mike Ditka's until after everything has blown up in your face.

 

LOL, you were saying? Marvin Lewis's Bengals don't need all of your boo-hooing and excuse making to rationalize how Denver kept them out of the playoffs and thwarted their 3rd straight 10 win season. Yeah fables my a**.