1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

I'm out on Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by djphinfan, Dec 28, 2014.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

    27,364
    31,261
    113
    Apr 6, 2008
    I'm not sure about that. I know Brady was still considered a caretaker QB in his third year. His YPA didn't get over 7.0 before his 5th season. I'm not sure how to find the numbers (other than going play-by-play), but I would guess that RT had as many or more 20+ or 25+ yard completions as Brady had in his third year.

    Tannehill's long ball percentage isn't bad when he targets WRs not named Wallace (IIRC it's at least average if not slightly above). And it's not like Hartline is some great jump ball guy in his own right. Tannehill's never had a WR with great catch radius and deep ability, not even going back to college. I think that adding a target with a big catch radius that can go deep and improving the pass pro would suddenly make his numbers in that area spike. And that's even if Tannehill doesn't continue to improve. Given his track record thus far the safer assumption is that Tannehill will continue to improve.
     
    resnor likes this.
  2. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    14,074
    11,142
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    Chicago, IL
    So you ask what anti-Tannehill fans would do and who they would replace them with. Yet, when they provide you with answer it isn't good enough?

    Personally, he has earned the right to come back next year as our starting QB. He's put up a really nice statistical year. Now, it's time to see the wins come. Numbers no longer matter. We now know you can do that. Let's see the wins. Let's see the playoffs. If he can do that, then you pay him.

    I'm not understanding why we're so hell-bent on picking up the option either. I get that it means he's only $15m and it could be more, but why not wait to see what he does next year? If he does well, we do what it takes to resign because we know he's the guy. That would be 4 years to know. No need to pick it up now IMO.
     
    resnor likes this.
  3. finwin

    finwin Active Member

    943
    194
    43
    Apr 30, 2013
    Jamestown, NC
    Why are the Falcons not in the playoffs? Matty Ice has a 94 QBR and 4700 yards passing. Drew Breez has almost 5000 yards and 1 less win than the Pins. You got to have Defense, Coaching and Special Teams not just a QB's willing his team to victory.
     
    speed, bran, DolphinGreg and 2 others like this.
  4. rdhstlr23

    rdhstlr23 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    14,074
    11,142
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    Chicago, IL
    I disagree. There has NEVER been a great QB that didn't go to the playoffs in his first 3 years of starting. He's above average and trending upward, but to call him great is a complete misuse of the word great.
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  5. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

    53,148
    31,935
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Katy, TX
    Unless per the contract you have to pick up the 5th year option prior to the 4th year. Not saying that's the case, but it could be.
     
  6. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

    53,148
    31,935
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Katy, TX
    The Falcons were a bottom 3rd rushing team, which may have contributed to their record.


    The Saints aren't in the playoffs because they gave the ball away 30 times (5th most in the league). Their defense was not good, but considering their division, the turnovers are the likeliest reason for being home.
     
  7. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    Did your son enjoy the game over you yelling "Pissass!!", Deej?


    My two cents via iPhone.
     
    speed and DPlus47 like this.
  8. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

    36,936
    10,264
    0
    Mar 25, 2008
    Thee...Ohio State University
    The better gamble is extending Ryan ASAP, and hope he continues his upward trend to top 10 status...rather than the gamble of finding a Rodgers, Brady, Manning anytime soon.

    Ryan is the guy and we need to build around him starting with the interior OL.
     
    DPlus47 likes this.
  9. DPlus47

    DPlus47 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    16,343
    4,501
    113
    Jul 14, 2008
    If that's true, coaching is a bigger problem than I thought.

    Honestly, I think Tannehill's numbers might even get better next year, but unless his coach lets go of the reins a little bit, he's still not reaching his potential.

    I'm excited about Tannehill's year-to-year improvement, but I have a queasy feeling that the presence of the coaching staff is holding him back.

    One worry that's growing in the back of my mind: Ross cleans house next year, and the organization shuffles its feet on Tannehill's extension because it's in transition. IMO, that would be a mistake to make him play a year as a lame duck.
     
    Fin-Omenal likes this.
  10. CitizenSnips

    CitizenSnips hmm.

    5,525
    4,219
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    PA
    Never? Itsnever happened? ever?
     
  11. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

    1,818
    572
    0
    Dec 23, 2014
    Unfortunately I think the original poster is lamenting the current state of the NFL as much as he is anything regarding Ryan Tannehill. The league has become so oriented around passing that the teams with the very few elite quarterbacks have a great deal more probability of contending for the Super Bowl than the teams without one. The teams without one are forced to try to surround a lesser quarterback with an uncommon level of talent to be competitive at that level, and it looks like the original poster is resigning himself to the belief that the Dolphins will be such a team with Ryan Tannehill at the helm.

    The good news, in my opinion, is that Ryan Tannehill has shown enough as a quarterback to elevate the Dolphins well above the teams that have absolutely no chance of contending for a Super Bowl, because their quarterbacks are so bad. The Dolphins need only put an uncommon level of talent around Tannehill to be competitive for the Super Bowl, whereas those other teams -- those without adequate quarterbacks -- won't be competitive at that level no matter how much talent with which they surround their quarterback.

    I think you can look at it like this, like a tiered system (with teams listed within each tier in no particular order):

    TIER 1 (teams that are competitive for the SB on quarterback play alone)
    Green Bay
    Denver
    New England
    Seattle

    TIER 2 (teams that can be competitive for the SB on the combination of quarterback play and other talent)
    Dallas
    Pittsburgh
    Baltimore
    New Orleans
    Indianapolis
    Cincinnati
    Detroit
    San Diego
    Kansas City
    Philadelphia (with Nick Foles)
    Carolina
    Atlanta
    Miami
    NY Giants
    San Francisco

    TIER 3 (teams that have little or no chance at SB contention because their quarterbacks are inadequate)
    Buffalo
    NY Jets
    St. Louis
    Oakland
    Minnesota
    Washington
    Houston
    Tennessee
    Chicago
    Tampa Bay
    Cleveland
    Jacksonville

    So, if you're in TIER 3, you're looking for a quarterback as priority number-one (or you're developing an unproven one). If you're in TIER 2, you aren't looking for a quarterback and aren't developing one beyond a level of inadequacy, but you're looking to surround the one you have with an uncommonly strong level of talent. If you're in TIER 1, you're likely to be competitive deep into the playoffs, and possibly for a Super Bowl, on your quarterback play alone, regardless of whether you have uncommonly good talent around him.

    What I hear the original poster saying -- and correct me if I'm wrong -- is that he was hoping Ryan Tannehill would put the Dolphins into TIER 1, but after yesterday's game he's resigned himself to his being in TIER 2 throughout his career.

    And I don't know if that's an accurate assessment of Tannehill or not, but it may help people understand what the original poster is saying if it's indeed an accurate understanding of him on my part.
     
  12. finwin

    finwin Active Member

    943
    194
    43
    Apr 30, 2013
    Jamestown, NC
    And I came in last place in our fantasy league because I drafted Steven Jackson with my 3rd pick. So I guess Hickey is to blame some for our fiasco. He'll be held more accountable for 2015. Tripp is bordering on bust, Fede probably got 5% snaps, while Jelani Jenkins, Caleb Sturgis,Don Jones and Dion Sims, Ireland's 2013 late picks are contributing. Billy Turner, Arthur Lynch, Walt Aikens, and to some degree Hazel could be the deciders if we make the playoffs in 2015.
     
  13. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,227
    6,527
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    Another great post! Keep it up, man! I like the way you think. :)

    The only issue I see as a little weird is that there is a large number of fans on this board that would tell you all of those "tier-2" teams still need to be drafting QB.

    I don't see the logic in that. At some point you have to look at it not as a theoretical/philosophical discussion but as a real-world, cut-your-losses, this-is-who-we're-going-with kind of scenario.

    I'm happy to roll with Tannehill for the next several seasons. I think he's good enough to post winning records and enter the Play-offs if the guys around him are merely average. Hartline, Clay, Landry...those guys aren't superheros, yet we all more or less appreciate them for whatever it is that they do. I think in a lot of ways Tannehill does make those guys look a little better.

    I think it's safe to say that the team's decline in the 2nd-half of the season was mostly defensive.
     
    Tannephins likes this.
  14. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

    1,818
    572
    0
    Dec 23, 2014
    And that may be true (the bolded part), but as you said very well, I think it comes down to whether you're more likely to land a "TIER 1" quarterback in the draft than you are to surround a "TIER 2" one with the necessary talent. I think the latter of those is more probable, which is why I'm happy going with Tannehilll as well. At least the team isn't forced to look for and find a new QB, who may end up in "TIER 3" for all we know (a bust). It can consider the quarterback position addressed, and move on to infusing talent into other areas of the team.

    This should be the definition of a "franchise quarterback" in my opinion, and it looks as if the Dolphins have one.
     
  15. Stitches

    Stitches ThePhin's Biggest Killjoy Luxury Box

    53,148
    31,935
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Katy, TX
    Tripp is bordering on bust?
     
  16. finwin

    finwin Active Member

    943
    194
    43
    Apr 30, 2013
    Jamestown, NC
    I guess teams like Seattle should be a Tier 1 1/2 team who contend for the SB based on Running and Defense.
     
  17. finwin

    finwin Active Member

    943
    194
    43
    Apr 30, 2013
    Jamestown, NC
    He's not? I guess you missed the "tackle" on the Jets ST return for a TD yesterday and all the sacks he's gotten this year. I'm not exactly sure what Tripp's done this year with a great opportunity due to our LB injuries from the first game.
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  18. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

    1,818
    572
    0
    Dec 23, 2014
    Well what you get with Seattle is the whole kit and kaboodle, because their defense coupled with their quarterback play enabled them to BLOW OUT another team in TIER 1 in the Super Bowl. That was elite quarterback play AND an uncommonly good level of talent surrounding him.

    That's what can happen when you have an elite QB still making the money from his rookie contract, enabling you to have room under the cap to infuse lots of talent elsewhere, as well. That's going to be a rare occurrence in the NFL, however, because most young QBs aren't going to play that well while still under their rookie contracts.
     
  19. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,227
    6,527
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    The philosophical side of me wonders if re-creating the "Seattle-plan" isn't something somewhat sustainable.

    Build up an elite running game. Find some of the league's better DBs. Get a DC who can create a tough and hard-hitting front-7.

    Commit your offense to being simplistic and scaled-down. And then churn through young QBs who are cheap and athletic.

    As soon as the QB wants that $100M contract, you bail on him and find the next young kid out of college who can run well, evade pressure and throw accurately--say Marcus Mariotta for example. It might be empowering for a franchise to say we're going to embrace the idea that the QB is the sacrificial lamb of the franchise.


    In a lot of ways, I think we saw the very same thing happen in San Francisco and the only thing that stopped it was the same success in Seattle. It's almost as though the era of Brady and Manning is behind us and those few teams who've moved on are in better shape to compete long-term. If you have the defense and running game you can virtually always rebuild quickly. In the case of the Dolphins for example, you search for a QB and it takes 15 years just to find a solid option.
     
  20. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

    1,818
    572
    0
    Dec 23, 2014
    I think you're selling Russell Wilson a little short there. I think the wiser plan is to stick with Wilson, which makes them a TIER 1 team, and churn through the other players on the roster as needed. This is essentially what Bill Belichick and company have done for the last decade-plus in New England. Notice how they've cast off the likes of Wes Welker, Richard Seymour, Logan Mankins, Ty Law, etc., and have kept on trucking. Why? Tom Brady.
     
    djphinfan and dolphin25 like this.
  21. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,227
    6,527
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    The only problem is that you're success is tied to finding the 1-in-1000 type of guy. So in my eyes, you've already committed to the notion of something that is so rare that it's unpredictable.

    The basis of that is no where close to being sustainable (therefore it's uninteresting and useless). Brady and Manning are more like winning the lottery. There's no philosophy there at all really. You just luck out and win.
     
  22. speed

    speed Banned

    1,699
    179
    0
    Oct 14, 2014
    This ^ x 1,000,000,000
     
  23. DPlus47

    DPlus47 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    16,343
    4,501
    113
    Jul 14, 2008
    This is pretty close to my understanding.

    I don't think Tom Brady would have a better record with this team than Tannehill does. I know that's controversial, but he doesn't handle pressure. I would say Peyton would definitely have a better record if he's allowed to audible. Rodgers and Wilson would have this team in the playoffs, but the surrounding talent would make it very difficult to advance far.

    For right now, I can handle where Tannehill is. While I understand he has multiple areas that need improvement, I think coaching is holding this team back more than QB play. However, it's possible that the conservative coaching happening right now might benefit Tannehill in the long run. I can't wait to see him play for a new coach to find out! (I'd like success next year under Philbin, but I'm not expecting it)

    I know no one asked me, but today this seems like a thread that's WAAAAY more in line with the OP than it was yesterday. I appreciate that, because on topic posts are more interesting to me for some reason.
     
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2014
    Tannephins likes this.
  24. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

    1,818
    572
    0
    Dec 23, 2014
    And that's why the NFL's rule changes have a chance of destroying league parity, which is what made the league enjoy a quantum leap in popularity -- the notion that "my" team can be poor one year and good the next. Now where is that parity? The league is so oriented around passing that if your team doesn't have a top QB, good luck making such a leap from one year to the next.
     
    dolphin25, Hiruma78 and DPlus47 like this.
  25. DPlus47

    DPlus47 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    16,343
    4,501
    113
    Jul 14, 2008
    Good post. I think Goodell's whole tenure has been defined by trying to fix something that isn't broken and failing miserably at it. Well, that and the whole Ray Rice thing.
     
    Tannephins likes this.
  26. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,227
    6,527
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    I guess I agree with that in general although it's a bit deterministic to put success on "parity" alone. To me, the success of the NFL is chaotic. Butterfly flaps its wings, etc. A lot of things had to be right in order for the NFL to continue to grow and it will like all things regress and I'm not sure there's going to be just one reason for that, although in your defense baseball has essentially died and that's surely something to do with the lack of competition and/or "parity."

    Things get to a point in which you can't even fathom certain guys having a losing record. I mean, how bad would a Manning, Brady or Rodgers-led team have to be for them to go 7-9? Then again, just as I say that Drew Bress (often cited as "elite") had a horrible season in terms of the W/L record so it certainly can happen. You can cherry pick Manning/Brady/Rodgers now because they appear to be on top but in all reality we may see a decline in the Packers dominance, particularly if players like Randall Cobb aren't resigned.

    But then again, as QB'ing becomes more easy I think we've seen an influx of "above-average" guys come in and help turn teams around in the last decade: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matthew Stafford, Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, etc.

    If anything, the league is replicating college very slowly to the point that the game is becoming more about speed and less about physicality. The NFL is no longer a game where you are considered a veteran only after 10 years in the league. What we're really seeing in the decline of the experience as a valuable commodity. Having a 10-year vet like Kyle Orton for example doesn't necessarily give you any advantage over a Russell Wilson or Cam Newton in today's game.

    I mean, when Russell Wilson wins a Super Bowl in his 2nd year in the league, it's not a sign that he's the next Tom Brady. It's a sign that things are changing.
     
  27. DPlus47

    DPlus47 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    16,343
    4,501
    113
    Jul 14, 2008
    I agree with you to a point, but not on this. Go look at the replay of Tom Brady's first Super Bowl win and then look at Wilson's Super Bowl win. I'm not saying Wilson at his best is better than Brady at his best, but just watch those games and tell us which QB is better.
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  28. speed

    speed Banned

    1,699
    179
    0
    Oct 14, 2014
    Whoa!!! This is a 180 degree turn!

    What happened?
     
  29. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,227
    6,527
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    I wouldn't have predicted Tom Brady's success even back when he won his first Super Bowl. Tom Brady today is a very different player.

    The point I was making was that winning a Super Bowl early in your career does not automatically guarantee that someone will be a HoF QB that throws for 50,000+ yards in their career.

    That's all I was saying.
     
    DPlus47 likes this.
  30. DPlus47

    DPlus47 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    16,343
    4,501
    113
    Jul 14, 2008
    Fair.

    Russell Wilson was a fricking Maestro on 3rd down vs. the Broncos. I understand that the position has been made easier than it was in 2001-2 due to rules emphasis changes, but Wilson looked like a veteran in his first Super Bowl. Contrast that with Brady or for greater contrast, Big Ben (who is an elite QB, IMO), who all but soiled himself in his first game on the big stage.
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  31. bran

    bran Senior Member

    4,525
    1,505
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    New Hampshire
    tom brady and ryan tannehills numbers are very similar. in tom brady's first 6 seasons as a starter his best season was 28td 14int 4,110 yards with a qb rating of 92.3 tannehill this year was 27td 12in 4,045 yards with a qb rating of 92.8

    the difference is tom brady in his earlier years when he was developing had an outstanding defense, a very good oline and a reliable running back not to mention superior coaching. the patriots have been able to keep going by taking in castoffs or lower round picks and coaching them and developing them into good to great players. in doing this they keep going and they build up around brady's strengths and hide his weaknesses. tom brady behind the dolphins oline would not look like tom brady. just look at the beginning of the year when the oline was in flux all of a sudden brady and the patriots didnt look like superman anymore, everyone was saying the partriots were done and brady was washed up, the oline got situated and then all of a sudden brady looks like brady again and the patriots looked like the patriots.

    tannehill can only do so much, give the guy a damn oline that is consistent(not consistently bad) and you will see him making the throws, great quarterbacks are great not just because of their talent they are great because of the talent around them. its why aaron rodgers goes out and buys his oline gifts or why a running back like emmitt smith sings the praises of how he would never be the back he was without his oline. teams win superbowls, teams make it to the playoffs not just one player.
     
    cuchulainn, rafael, resnor and 2 others like this.
  32. speed

    speed Banned

    1,699
    179
    0
    Oct 14, 2014
    That's it. That's all that needs to be said.

    Close this thread.
     
  33. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

    27,364
    31,261
    113
    Apr 6, 2008
    I wouldn't put Seattle in that top tier. Their success or failure largely lies on the back of that D. When that D was struggling early in the season Wilson looked pretty average. And this is coming from a huge Wilson fan. I see Wilson as a guy you build around, but he hasn't reached the level where he can carry a team yet.

    I'd probably also quibble with a few on tier 2 maybe belonging in tier 3, but overall I get your point and largely agree. IMO DJ just wants the QB to play a certain way and Tannehill doesn't fit that look. He's a pocket QB who is learning to use his legs more. I want him to use his legs more as well, but he'll always be and should be primarily a pocket passer. Those long third downs he completed despite getting pounded should not be glossed over. Those are elite QB plays. And those are still the type of plays that you want your QB making most of the time. Those scrambles for first down should generally not be more than two or three per game. You always want the QB to move around in the pocket, but whether that's possible is largely a factor of where the pressure comes from. If it's coming from both the outsides and middle (like yesterday) then that pocket manipulation is not really possible.
     
  34. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

    6,338
    2,400
    113
    Nov 22, 2014
    Have you seen the Seahawks line? They are horrible!!
     
    DPlus47 likes this.
  35. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

    36,936
    10,264
    0
    Mar 25, 2008
    Thee...Ohio State University
    ??? You learned to read???
     
    djphinfan likes this.
  36. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

    6,338
    2,400
    113
    Nov 22, 2014
    thought this was only board you were not banned from?
     
    djphinfan and Fin-Omenal like this.
  37. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

    6,338
    2,400
    113
    Nov 22, 2014
    That was a great post!
     
    djphinfan and DPlus47 like this.
  38. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

    6,338
    2,400
    113
    Nov 22, 2014
    You do know 8-8 is not winning correct?
     
  39. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,327
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    You do know it takes more than the QB to win games, right? You do know that a team record is just that, TEAM RECORD, right?

    Seriously, crawl back under your rock.
     
  40. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

    1,818
    572
    0
    Dec 23, 2014
    I'd have to disagree on Wilson. His QB rating when his team has been behind this year is 114.4, which suggests that he plays at an elite level even when his defense isn't dominating and shutting other teams down, and/or when his own offense has sputtered previously in a game.

    What some people also seem to forget about Wilson is that he's also the 16th-leading rusher in the league, with 849 yards and 7.2 yards a carry on the season. He's also been sacked only 20 fewer times than Tannehill in his three seasons, or less than a half a sack fewer times per game.
     
    djphinfan, DPlus47 and shamegame13 like this.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page