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We will be better next year and make your prediction

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Bigsteve606, Dec 28, 2014.

  1. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    Good post LI.

    Its probably naive for me to think that fans will stop being naive.
     
  2. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    It is possible for Miami to be better next season.

    They will need a lot of the young people from 2013 and 2014 to step up. They need a new players like Clay, Sims and Vernon. Young players who stepped up. Jenkins was one this year and if he didn't step up Miami wouldn't probably even be in the playoff hunt.
     
  3. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    First of all, I have been stating for the last few months that the Dolphins should look at trading Wake in the off season. He will be 33 years old next season and I think his best years are behind him. So if they can get a second round draft pick, or a high third round pick for him, they should take it, IMO.

    If I thought this was a 10-6 team next year, as you do, I wouldn't be advising a Wake trade. I just think they need to start rebuilding their defense with younger players in the draft. I believe it is going to take at least two solid drafts to rebuild this defense.

    As I stated earlier, I think this defense will be a bottom ten defense next year. The DL showed this year that they were vastly overrated going into the season. Other than Wake, I don't see a single player on the DL who can be considered anything but mediocre at best.

    At LB you have Jenkins and a lot of question marks. Misi is not a MLB, nor can he stay healthy throughout a season. Wheeler and Ellerbe both need to be cut during the off season. We have no idea if Jordan or McCain can step up next year and play effectively as LB's in the NFL.

    To me, the Dolphins need to severely upgrade this line backing group. Right now they are probably the worst LB unit in the NFL.

    In the secondary, Jones is a keeper and Grimes might have a year or two left before age catches up with him. As we saw in the latter half of this season, Grimes is not the same player now he was during the 2013 season. So while he is better than any of the other CB's on the roster, he is no longer the elite CB he was when he was younger.

    Miami needs to upgrade the CB position opposite Grimes and find a quality safety to play opposite Jones. They also need to find better players to come in when they go to a 5 or 6 man coverage. Taylor may eventually develop into a decent 5th or 6th defensive back but I don't see him as a starting CB in the NFL.

    On offense, Hickey needs to find two starting guards for the OL. He also needs to find better backups for the OL. To be a good team in the NFL, you have to have players to can come in and get the job done when the starters go down. Of course there will be a slight drop off in play by the backup, but once the Dolphins lost Albert, it appeared there was a major drop off in the play of the OL. Especially when it came to pass protection.

    With all the holes this team needs to upgrade and the best two players on the defense being two of their oldest players, I just think it is going to be very difficult for this team to win 8 games again next year.

    I understand you disagree with me and I have no problem with you predicting that the Dolphins will have a better record next year than I feel they will have. People disagree on this forum all the time and that is why forums like this exist in the first place.
    These forums would be quite boring if everyone came on here and agreed on everything.

    Right now you see the Dolphins going 10-6 next year. I see than finishing the season 6-10. The nice thing about predictions is that we will both have the opportunity to see what happens when the season is played next year.

    At this time neither of us knows what is going to happen, but at least we will get the chance to see if the team improves next season, as you suggest it will. Or will it implode and have another season like it did in 2011, as I feel it will.

    I certainly hope you end up being right about this team next year. I would much rather be wrong and see them win 10 games and make the playoffs. Unfotunately I just have zero confidence in Philbin and I don't see the defense being any better next year than it was this year.
     
    pumpdogs likes this.
  4. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    you think philbins seat shouldn't be hot?
     
    DPlus47 likes this.
  5. Conuficus

    Conuficus Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well away from here
    We've never beaten the Texans for starters and if we are going out west to play the Chargers I think we lose that game.
     
    ckparrothead likes this.
  6. HogsHDFinsfan

    HogsHDFinsfan New Member

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    This...you reading piston? Can you get it?
     
  7. HogsHDFinsfan

    HogsHDFinsfan New Member

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    There are plenty of rational reasons to think we'll be a 5 win team. The Jets with Amari Cooper and an offensive coach. you saw what they did to us without Cooper and a defensive coach?the bills finished second in the division, and will probably improve.the Patriots took us lightly and lost to us in the first game of the season. That will not likely happen again. Right there are 3 losses!
     
  8. HogsHDFinsfan

    HogsHDFinsfan New Member

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    You might need to tell him who Philbin is...lol.
     
  9. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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    It is soooooooo obvious you are searching for something positive to say......lol

    Dude there is no cap money. Even if we free up money by getting rid of guys like Ellerbe and Wallace. The money we save is still going to be used up to sign their replacements. And who the **** is out their that is better? Finnigan was a waste of time and we are going to have to free up money to sign Tannehill ---- eventually. Wake is aging and we still got a offensive line that needs a lot of work.

    The deck is stacked and it doesn't look good. Don't get me wrong I wish it wasn't this way but it is.

    Philbin has got himself in a huge pickle. I don't see how he survives past next year.
     
  10. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I was pointing that out to Section126 in the Club. He mentioned that we own the Chargers. But I wouldn't call that "owning". We beat them the last two times we played them, both of which were in Miami. But we lost to them the last time we played them in San Diego and this one is in San Diego.

    The term "owning" should be reserved for the Texans over the Dolphins because the Dolphins are 0-7 lifetime against the franchise.
     
    ssmiami likes this.
  11. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I've talked about this in the Club but in my opinion the stuff you do the same offseason as the upcoming season isn't as relevant as people think. So while the focus will be on who Miami signs and drafts in the offseason determining how good the team is next year, the reality is how good the team ends up will depend a lot more on who they drafted in 2013 and to some degree 2014, and which free agents they signed in 2014...as opposed to 2015.

    People focus on players like JaWuan James and Jarvis Landry in Miami's 8 wins but James played half his games at left tackle where he played pretty poorly to be honest, Tannehill still ended up under a lot of pressure, and statistically speaking the primary differences between what Jarvis Landry did this year and what Brandon Gibson did a year ago are that A) Landry stayed healthy the whole year, B) Landry fumbled the ball a lot, and C) Gibson caught the ball slightly further down the field. Otherwise, same touchdown rate, same yards per pass snap, etc. Branden Albert only played half the year. Louis Delmas got hurt and wasn't much (if any) better than Chris Clemons. Cortland Finnegan missed a bunch of time, gave up a lot of yards, etc. Shelley Smith didn't play consistently because the coaches rotated him. Daryn Colledge was bad at football. Knowshon Moreno played one game.

    Overall the impact of those 2014 acquisitions on the 2014 season was minimal compared with the impact of, for example, the maturation of draft picks like Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Miller, Jelani Jenkins and Olivier Vernon, or the acclimation of Mike Wallace and Philip Wheeler, both of whom played much better in their second year with the team than their first.

    So if you want to have an idea where the team will be going in 2015 then I think you need to start there. What free agents did we acquire in 2014 that could play better in 2015? What draft picks did we make in 2013 that could come into full flower? Will there be any guys from the 2014 draft that mature surprisingly quick (second year is quick) and make an impact like Jelani Jenkins did in 2014 or Olivier Vernon did in 2013?

    So your candidates for the most significant positive improvements are:

    2014 FA Branden Albert
    2014 FA Earl Mitchell
    2014 FA Shelley Smith (if he's not cut)
    2014 FA Cortland Finnegan (if he's not cut)
    2014 FA Louis Delmas (if asked back)
    2014 FA Daryn Colledge (if asked back)
    2014 FA Samson Satele (if asked back)
    2014 FA Knowshon Moreno (if asked back)
    2013 R1 Dion Jordan
    2013 R2 Jamar Taylor
    2013 R3 Dallas Thomas
    2013 R3 Will Davis
    2013 R4 Jelani Jenkins
    2013 R4 Dion Sims
    2014 R1 JaWuan James
    2014 R2 Jarvis Landry
    2014 R3 Billy Turner

    The problem is, closer inspection of the list presents some issues.

    First off there are a lot of "if" players among the free agents...guys who most likely will not be on the team next year and even if they are very likely not starting (Samson Satele, Daryn Colledge, Knowshon Moreno), and guys who will probably be cut (Cortland Finnegan, Shelley Smith). They can't be responsible for improvement in their second year with the team if they're not even on the team playing.

    Second, the biggest and most successful free agent acquisition Branden Albert suffered a torn ACL. If he was going to end up playing even better in 2015 than he did in 2014 (doubtful because he was one of those few free agents that plays exquisitely immediately with no acclimation period), then that was precluded when he tore his knee up. We hope he will play the whole year in 2015 but that may not even be a realistic hope, let alone that he'll play the whole year AND play well.

    Third, it seems kind of unlikely for guys like Dion Jordan, Dallas Thomas and Will Davis to drag themselves up from the depths and play so well that they're actually moving the needle.

    That leaves Earl Mitchell as pretty much the lone free agent acquisition that could improve the team by acclimating, guys like Jamar Taylor and Dion Sims as potentially the next Jelani Jenkins (circa 2014), and Jelani Jenkins himself as potentially the next Reshad Jones (circa 2012) or Olivier Vernon (circa 2014). It also leaves open the potential for players like JaWuan James or Jarvis Landry to significantly improve the team via development, and in my opinion for Billy Turner to impact the team by starting.

    The question now is how good that group really is (Earl Mitchell, Jamar Taylor, Dion Sims, Jelani Jenkins, JaWuan James, Jarvis Landry and Billy Turner)?

    If the irons in the fire just aren't all that high quality, and you're counting on them to be the primary sources for improvement, then things could go south for you...because we've also got no shortage of sources of team attrition.

    Team attrition is an NFL reality. Every team has sources of attrition. In Miami, the following strike me as significant sources of attrition:

    1. The Mike Wallace blowup, which could very well result in his dismissal.
    2. Brent Grimes being 32 years old, having finished the 2014 poorly, and with a pretty thick injury history from his younger years.
    3. Cameron Wake being 33 years old, having not been as good in the second half of 2014 as he was the first half.
    4. Branden Albert recovering from an exploded knee.
    5. Potential regression off career years for guys like Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Miller and Reshad Jones.
    6. Brian Hartline's likely dismissal.
    7. Randy Starks' likely dismissal.
    8. Louis Delmas likely not being asked back, and his recovery from ACL surgery even if he is asked back.

    So when it comes to predicting 2015, these are the things that ought to be swirling around. How good are your potential sources of improvement? How likely are your sources of attrition? Do you have a coaching situation that tends to backstop those sources of attrition, and/or produce surprising sources of improvement? Do the players hold well with their coaches?

    For myself, I tend to be skeptical about Miami's 2015 season for a couple of reasons.

    1. I *DO NOT* trust Jeff Ireland's 2013 draft class, which is going to be front and center in terms of areas of potential improvement. I liked his 2012 draft class a lot and therefore am not surprised that 2014 saw some significant improvement from players in that class (Tannehill, Miller, Vernon). But I disliked his 2013 draft a lot when it happened and I personally don't think the signs have been great ever since. Would not surprise me if the only player worth a damn out of that draft is Jelani Jenkins.

    2. I think Dennis Hickey's 2014 free agent haul will end up proving out to be a bad one, and while I have MUCH more hope for his 2014 draft class I think it's one year early for them to be making so much improvement that they really move the needle in 2015 relative to 2014. Mind you this all has to be relative because it's all about improvements battling against deterioration. If James and Landry go out and play the same as they did in 2014 then there's no needle movement.

    3. I don't trust Miami's coaches to produce surprising gems or prevent players from falling into traps. I think they fail to put players in position to surprise you positively, and I think they put other players in position to fail. Over the years we've seen it too many times. Mike Pouncey at right guard was put into position to fail. Dallas Thomas on the field at all was put into position to fail. Even go back to 2012, putting Jared Odrick at DE was putting him in position to fail. Making Olivier Vernon a 3rd down pass rush SPECIALIST as a rookie (when pass rush was the thing he needed to improve on the most coming out of UM) was putting him in position to fail. The way they used Reshad Jones in 2013 as oppposed to how they used him in 2012 and 2014 was putting him in position to fail. Having Shelley Smith ROTATE (can't tell you how much I hate the idea of rotating OLs during games) was putting him in position to fail. Having Dion Jordan bulk up and be exclusively a DE was putting him in position to fail. Having Philip Wheeler play Will backer and be out in coverage on nickel downs was putting him in position to fail. Moving Dannell Ellerbe to Mike was putting him in position to fail. Making Michael Egnew exclusively a blocking tight end was putting him in position to fail, regardless of his overall talent. Taking away Brian Hartline's best routes was putting him in position to fail. Having Legedu Naanee not only on the roster but as high as 3rd on the receiver depth chart is a failure. The way they used (or didn't use) Chris McCain failed to put him in position to surprise us positively. The same would've been true of Jelani Jenkins if not for Dannell Ellerbe's injury. Billy Turner might have surprised as a rookie but they kept Dallas Thomas in front of him. This is a coaching staff that loves to find ways to underperform the talent on the roster.

    4. From a character standpoint, I expect things only to get worse, not better, in terms of the team coming through in big spots and being on the same page with their coaches. I expect more griping, controversy, blowups, and losses when it counts. This will not change in my opinion until Philbin is fired.
     
    DPlus47 and emocomputerjock like this.
  12. I could see you guys going 10-6 and making the playoffs.
     

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