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Why We Have to Move Past "Queasy"

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Tannephins, Jan 4, 2015.

  1. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    His guys are 8-8. How much should they be entrusted?
     
  2. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    Mario Williams strip sack on 2nd and 8. If you'll recall that was the play Philbin/Sherman took heat for even attempting a pass in that situation, but Sherman came out in defense of himself and said he called a run there and Tannehill changed the play to a pass.

    You see? If we attempt a pass and we lose the game they were too aggressive. If we run clock and lose they were too passive. Lose lose.
     
  3. Phins_Fan_87

    Phins_Fan_87 Phins and Heat fan Club Member

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    Replace Quesy with a coach that can motivate his players and we make the playoffs this season. The team's performance this season strongly resembles it's coach.
     
  4. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    The problem with your argument is that Philbins queasiness isnt on its own a problem, but its emblematic of Philbin's overall incompetence.
     
  5. pmj

    pmj New Member

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    CK already explained the problem wasn't the plan but abandoning the plan.

    Its obvious you are just going to go to never ending lengths to defend Philbin, no point in continuing this.
     
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  6. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    didn't they try and pass on 1st and 2nd down in that bills situation.
     
  7. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm Confused, how was Philbin conservative if it's being said that he ran the clock out yet your saying the qb was strip sacked on 2nd down?
     
  8. RGF

    RGF THE FINSTER Club Member

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    Really? In other words "his guys" are the only reason they ended up 8-8 ? Even under his impeccable head coach prowess "his guys" still only finished 8-8 ? Shame on them, all of them.
     
  9. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I am confused too, I think he is talking about the Bill game in 2013...I think? DJ, you are talking about sitting on the ball with 3 TO's before the half THIS year. That I would love Roy to try to defend..which i'm sure he will.
     
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  10. RGF

    RGF THE FINSTER Club Member

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    Who ?
     
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  11. FinSane

    FinSane Cynical Dolphins Fan

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    It was the wrong decision and it cost us the game. Nothing else matters.
     
  12. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    When the degree of talent he's coaching is associated with the average record the team actually had, how can we possibly know he's incompetent overall? And if he is incompetent overall (just for the sake of argument), and the team is finishing with a record that's consistent with its talent, how much can his incompetence really mean?
     
  13. It's jokes right?
     
  14. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Oh is that what their talking about...yeah I don't remember that lol...

    This year in the bills game, before half, we had the ball with two mins to go and all our timeouts..

    Do you remember the sequence of downs?
     
  15. RGF

    RGF THE FINSTER Club Member

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    At this point I only read posts from Philbin backers solely for the humorous entertainment value. It doesn't merit any sane evaluation because its too obvious from Philbins head coaching results to try and remotely agree with anyone who sees positives in his HC abilities.

    Need we really be reminded of last years mess? 8-6 , playoffs in our grasp and we lose the last two in embarrassing fashion.

    This year 7-5, sixth seed at that point, only to lose 3 out of our last 4 and the lone win coming against the Vikings at home by a last minute safety.

    Philbin is not, I repeat NOT the answer and its inevitable his tenure here will end when Ross finally realizes it. Its frustrating because the axe should have already fallen but instead were wasting valuable time.
     
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  16. FinSane

    FinSane Cynical Dolphins Fan

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    And missing out on better HC candidates.
     
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  17. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    How do you reach this conclusion?
     
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  18. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The only way that we can move past the "Queasy Quote" is for Philbin to make the playoffs and prove everyone wrong. I do think that unbelievably gutless call to sit on it against the Bills and the 3 or 4 critical errors Joe made in the last few minutes against teams were signs that he can't hack it as an NFL head coach. I hope that he proves me wrong but I think between last season's epic 2 game collapse and this season's 3 of 4 disaster we have seen all we need to see.

    I think Ross only wanted Harbaugh and when he knew he was headed to Michigan that he just stuck with a guy he really likes personally and wants to succeed badly for personal reasons. I can honestly understand this and I hope it works out but I don't see us making the playoffs next year either unless Tannehill just takes off and carries this team through Philbin's mistakes. This is a team that needs strong leadership from its head coach, we don't seem to have it in the locker room, I don't think Philbin is that guy.
     
  19. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    A regression equation involving offensive and defensive net YPA, offensive and defensive yards per carry, offensive and defensive fumble rate, offensive and defensive interception rate, and team penalty yards per play. The Dolphins' 2014 values yield between 8 and 9 expected wins.
     
  20. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I looked it up DJ..We got the ball on our own 12 yrd line with 2:21 left with 3 TO's and the 2 min warning. We ran the ball 6 straight times and got the ball out to the MIA 41 yrd line..failed to pass or even take a TO. Score at the half was 9-0. I was shocked so much that I had to double check it!
     
  21. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Those metrics represent coaching ability as well.
     
  22. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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    Joe it's been awhile. Try to keep your posts more generic and not so obvious. They may catch on its you
     
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  23. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    To be fair it wasn't just the 2nd and 9 play where TWO defenders had a free run at the QB, Matthews off the edge and a LB thru the A gap. Tannehill was nearly decapitated two plays before that, a sack that was negated by penalty.

    Now it's 3rd and 9, a very low percentage down and distance. Of course you want to get the first down and ice the game but running 40 seconds off the clock and punting GB deep into their own territory isn't a bad play either. Not only did it very nearly succeed, it did so in spite of a horrible, no good, very bad, 23 yard punt that set Rodgers up at the 40 yard line.

    Overall i agree Philbin is too conservative but the 3rd and 9 play isn't a good example, the Buffalo game is a much better example imo.
     
  24. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    But when you add to the mix the fact that the Dolphins have only two Pro Bowl players (number of Pro Bowl players correlates with win percentage at 0.78, with the average number among this year's playoff teams being 4.1 -- non-playoff teams are at 1.6), and a QB who is functioning at only a slightly above-average level (slightly below average in net YPA), both of which are associated with only average success in the NFL, how would you suggest we reliably determine the influence of coaching ability on all that? In other words, how would we know that Joe Philbin isn't simply coaching just as well as let's say Jason Garrett, but with less talent?
     
  25. FinSane

    FinSane Cynical Dolphins Fan

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    Because good coaches don't coach not to lose regardless of the level of talent on the roster.
     
  26. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I really do not think it is Joe...probably his agent though. I don't even think Joe believes the stuff Roy writes about him, defending him to nooooooooooo end.
     
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  27. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    We had 13 net yards passing in the half. Not 13 yards per attempt. Not 13 first downs. Not even 13 points. THIRTEEN ****ING YARDS!!! YARDS!!!! IN AN ENTIRE HALF!!!!
     
  28. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    Which is fine, but that decision didn't decide the game. It's a shame we have a hundred posts on the TO call and next to nothing on the play that followed.

    Vernon, after the breather, whips the LT and gets quick pressure on Rodgers, who slides right and throws a laser to Jordy, who for some reason was being covered 1 on 1 with no safety help by Grimes. You can blame Grimes for getting beat, Coyle for going single high, or just credit GB for making a big play in a critical situation, but it seems like people just want to focus on Philbin...
     
  29. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    It is unquantifiable. You have admitted so much by subsequently adding qualifiers like:
    This just as likely applies to the counter of your argument. Correlation in this case just as likely means that winning teams get more pro bowlers simply because of their record.

    Additionally, you have the obvious argument that good head coaches make players better, thus pro bowl appearances correlate with quality if coaching.

    Finally, I'm extremely skeptical of the claim that Miami is a 8-9 win team based on the regression model you cited. The regression model you cited is identical to the one Brian Burke uses, which has Miami ranked as the 5th beat team in the league. If we are to apply that data to your theory, then Miami has severely under performed their "talent level", and identifies Philbo as a bad coach.
     
  30. pmj

    pmj New Member

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    Theres not a stat for everything. We don't have another team with exactly the same players and schedule to compare.

    But, to your example, there are plenty of people that think Garrett is perfectly average who has had his talented teams underperform for years.
     
  31. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    LOL yeah who cares if we go 3 and out and give Buffalo the ball back with a chance to bury us, at least we tried!!!

    Sure it was a conservative approach but let's not kid ourselves, there were reasons behind it.
     
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  32. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Are you kidding me? This was an NFL game, not the local HS game on a saturday. The score was 9-0...not 27-0. 3 TO's and a 2 min warning. Either you have NFL type players or you don't. This is coaching scared and passing on to your players that you don't see them gaining 40 yrds in 2 minutes. Why come out for the second half? I am not one of the many that think Philbin is an idiot, but I see him as a very inexperienced HC with a very conservative nature. You see him as almost a perfect coach who deserves ZERO responsibility when it comes to blame....ZERO! I have watched the NFL my entire life, I have never seen a coach, down only 9 with 3 TO's and the two minute warning, basically take a knee. But you see this a a good coaching move? Granted , I see those offensive numbers before the half, but I NEVER stop trying to make a play or score.
     
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  33. pmj

    pmj New Member

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    So run the clock a little at first, and then take your shots? i mean we got big chunks of yards running and it was more than possible to go for some points when there was no danger of giving them any time left on the clock. Anyone that watched that game remembers the circumstances. It was dumbfounding and incompetent.
     
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  34. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    I'm not saying it was the right call just explaining why it may have been made. That entire half was dumbfounding and incompetent. I wanna say the Moreno injury threw their game plan into the garbage and they wanted to get in to the locker room w/o any more damage done. We were actually much better in the 2nd half but then the KO return...
     
  35. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Piston, It was 9-0. There was plenty of time to run and pass. What were you afraid of, we had our elite defense on the field to stop another 80 yrd scoring drive. You seem reasonable, have you seen this much time on the clock with those time outs in a 9-0 game and a coach basically take a knee? I get the struggles of the first half, but I HAVE TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN MY COACHES AND PLAYERS IN THAT SPOT. And BTW, they did bury us anyway, with us never taking the bat off our shoulders before the half.
     
  36. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    And if it's unquantifiable and just as likely that the correlation represents a causal relationship in either direction, then again, how do we tease apart the impact of coaching?
    We're in the land of theory there, and in the absence of definitive evidence that could support either contention, we'll have to agree to disagree that players, rather than their coaches, are far more responsible for their Pro Bowl-level play.
    Burke has success rate factored in there, and he's removed defensive forced fumbles from the equation, which are relatively new for him. I don't know if that model is more predictive of winning than the one he used to use, that I'm using here. Does he have an article on it?

    The other thing to consider in Burke's equation is that the Dolphins had the third-best team penalty rate in the league in 2014, which one might argue is reflective of coaching more so than the other variables, which obviously have a great deal to do with player talent, as well.
     
  37. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You put it better than I did, run a little than take a shot. Once the ball was out past the 30...get aggressive. Dumbfounding and incompetent are perfect words.
     
  38. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    Thanks, please see post #74. I get your point 100% I'm just trying to give the other side of the argument. We were down two scores to NE a week earlier then came out and dominated them in the 2nd half. The difference was that Buffalo got the KOR TD from Spiller, they have a DL that is sick, and we didn't have Moreno to keep them honest.
     
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  39. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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    CK made a good post earlier about how people perceive Rex Ryan as a better coach then his record indicates because we are human and are able to process much more from many different areas to form our opinions. Not anything that isn't obvious but well said, and articulated in such a way that it opens the discussion further.

    I think the same applies here. Joe Philbin has done many things in many games to make people think they way they do. I can't speak for anyone else, but when I found out Philbin wasn't around the week of the San Diego game and we killed them 37-0 it was all I needed to know. IMO Philbin has hurt the improvement of this team. I honestly think we are loaded with talent and I base that statement on the fact of the 37-0 san Diego game, beating of the #1 seed New England patriots and playing side by side with Green Bay and Denver. The fact that Philbin will be on the hot seat going into next season, may actually hurt the team because Philbin will naturally be even more involved and if my assumptions are correct we will have a even worse record. This is not to say that Philbin will just let his Coordinators due what they due and we could actually be a lot better. Obviously we all know there are other factors at work like the salary cap situation. But it is a cap situation Philbin or Aponte let get mildly out of control.
     
  40. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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    So this means you give up???

    OK SURE
     
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