What The Playoffs Have Taught Me

As the owner of Aj Green in fantasy, let me tell you, he missed a few games (all or part of 5), and was not right for a few more (amazing he even hit 1,000 yards, he was gimpy after week 5 for a few weeks). Save for more INTs, 2013 Dalton was decent. Ryan had a higher completion % this year, but lower YPA, which tells you it was a lot of dink and dunk.

That said I do think he's shown more this year than Dalton has. He's clearly passed him. He might be around Matt Ryan territory and now into Philip Rivers/Flacco territory (but below Big Ben territory/Romo territory). If he maintains this level for years to come, he'll be Philip Rivers'esque, which can be seen as good ....

 

He very clearly explained the reasoning.

You calling that "what if" is intellectual dishonesty and proof positive of your bias. This is why no one takes you seriously when you whine about "no one can say anything negative about Tannehill without being labeled a hater".

 

Hmm, I thought we ran the ball pretty well....when the coaches didn't abandon it.

 

Haha...well there you go. We would've run the ball well had we not abandoned it.

Can't and therefore don't.

Could but wouldn't.

Where's the difference when you're the QB asking for some help?


In all seriousness, no, we didn't run the ball as well as the 4.7 ypc average stat would have you believe. Do you recall any point during which we closed out a game by running the ball? Did the physicality of our team ever dominate the 2nd half?

Nope. We're horrible when it comes to that stuff. Lamar Miller is great for the 15-20 carries a game but he doesn't add the physicality, grit and toughness you need to win games in the 4th quarter.

It's not even Lamar Miller's fault. He is what he is and I like him for that. We need need a better run-blocking O-line and preferably someone bigger and stronger to compliment Miller.

 

But they are fabricated stats and thats all they are, im beginning to think he BELIEVES that those were his stats this year when thats not the truth. "Toss away the first 3 games..." lol only Phin fans say these things. I cant believe you used the word "dishonesty" against me too, like im the one posting stat lines that never happened...

And YOU dont take me serious because im not part of your agenda. If I said RT17 is the greatest QB in the world you would be backing me up, dont take a genius to see that. Call me a hater all you want (as if I really care that you call me a hater...OMG, OH NO! What am I gonna do now? lol get over yourself), I call RT17 an 11th-12th best QB in football and you all cry about it as if I just insulted your mom. I dont bring up fabricated stats, a person that brings up fabricated stats fits the word "dishonest", not me for calling the guy out who brought up fabricated stats. I see you fist bumped him too, so you can go believe them stats really happened and lie to yourself about it as well. Dont really surprise me at this point.

 

ryan tannehill is not in joe flacco territory JD..

 

Vs. teams with a winning record Tannehill's season stats comes close to mimicking his entire season.
Stat line: 245/377 (65%) 2464 17 8 INT. 89.2 QB rating.

I think that says a lot about his consistency, which did develop strongly after the first few games, as Rafael suggested.

This doesn't even account for the "fabricated" stats of dropped TD's (At least 3 TD's were dropped in the two NE games alone), not to mention INT's that bounced off his receivers hands (Denver and 2nd meeting with NE come to mind). We're potentially talking about a 97 QB rating vs. winning teams. Point being, Ryan played well and his numbers could of been even better. He developed consistency that he's lacked his first two seasons. Both in terms of increased positive play and decreased negative play. His tendency to have chunk turnover games (3 or more in a single game) was non existent.

 

Yeah, lots of QBs learned a new system this year, including Dalton. And why 3 games? Oh right, because that was the moment he had a good game. Which means: Mission accomplished. System learned.

 

They use a specific argument to support RT17 but wont do the same for other QB's around the league, its quite clear what the agenda is around here. If RT17's first good game was in week 7, they would of used the argument of "it takes QB's 6 weeks to learn a new system, throw away his first 6 games of the year and apply his stats of the final ten weeks to the first 6 weeks and he actually looks like a top 5 QB instead of his ACTUAL REALITY 10-12th best statistics".... LOL I might not get taken serious here on Phins forums but they take me serious on national forums (PFT.com, SI.com, ESPN.com), whereas, these homers would get laughed at with their Dolphins arguments on national NFL forums... Go try and tell other fans of other teams these fabricated stats and they will laugh in your face. Im not surprised I dont get taken serious in here because you have to follow a certain agenda on TEAM sites to get taken serious and most of us know what the agenda is here.

 

Yet we seem to attribute the difference in his play from then on solely to his adjustment to the new offense, whereas Joe Philbin's public "challenge" of him -- which happened precisely after the third game -- gets little if any credit, even in theory, as having been perhaps a highly motivating event, despite that the consensus appears to have been that it takes six games -- not three -- to adjust to a new offense. That to me sounds like a clear bias against Joe Philbin.

And I personally have no dog in the hunt in defending Joe Philbin, because I couldn't care less about what's going on with the team's coaching right now, but I do have the ability to recognize a bias when I see one.

 

Talking production wise. Some people discount or deny clutch ability but not me, some have it, some don't. Flacco has it for some odd reason. His QBR during the reg season during the super bowl year? 87.

So I'm talking on a year to year, career trajectory output basis. A slightly better defense and maybe we're in the playoffs and Tanny can play out of his mind and we hit the jackpot. You never know.

Or maybe he folds like Cutler and Dalton and never goes all the way. We don't know until it's over. Look at Rivers and Romo. Two very high quality QBs that just can't seem to get their team over the edge in the playoffs over their careers or big games.

 

You are flat out ignoring why he gave those stats and acting like he pulled them out of *** with no rhyme or reason. And it is THAT that proves your bias.

Did Tannehill and the offense learn a new system this year, yes or no?
Does it take a few games to get into the swing of a new offense, yes or no?
Was there a difference in his stats after the first 3 games, yes or no?

Those are actual facts. You ignoring them is the actual fabrication.

All Raf did was project, which is a fairly common practice and used in stats all the damn time. Your faux incredulity over that is even further proof of your bs agenda.

 

before joe philbin called him out i was taking about it here that it was time for him to get checked, checked he got...gave philbin props for it..this is the qb he wanted so make it work.

 

your making my case for me, we've seen flacco play the position under extreme conditions, against great defenses, perform great and win in playoffs and Super Bowl..

there is no reference point for ryan so no he's not in his league..your saying could he be in his league come playoff time...im saying i haven't seen the necessary things that would make me think he could under the same circumstances..

 

You haven't seen them because once again, even though I love ya' Deej, the qualifications you're looking for are arbitrary. He has performed well in the clutch, but other players let him down.

 

The knock on Cinci pointed the finger at Dalton rather than injuries makes me think you're inferring that Tannehill is average. You mentioned AJ Green injured but didn't mention Jermain Grisham out as well. What about needing a good defense. The average pts against was 15.75 and the average for the winners is 26.75. Those scores on offense don't include top tier offensive teams like Denver, GB and NE.

 

I'm willing to accept the NFL's official rendition of why it was called (not-called) as it was. The only real mistake was to announce the first call and then reverse it a moment later. Face guarding is legal in the NFL... As to the missed call on the D holding as the guys came off the line, a lot of calls are missed at times... That is part of the game... As we've said for years, you can probably call holding on every play if you look and decipher the play closely enough... That sort of thing happens in EVERY game at times, not just dallas... I'm old enough to remember before slo-mo cameras... and replays (no, not replaying of calls, but replays on the broadcast period)... Those things are part of what make the NFL good to watch...the NFL doesn't care whether you and I are discussing a missed call or perceived missed call, as long as we are talking about it...

You always want a clean game, but the system in place works. Besides all that, the bottom line is that Detroit didn't lose that game because of that one call...that is a fact...

 

Dalton did not have Green, Gresham, Jones, Effert, If the Dolphins did not have those 4 quality type players playing I can hear the excuses for Tannehill now..

 

I don't disagree with you totally, BUT in the 4th quarter we would not run out of our normal offense which in my mind was stupid. We run very well out of the spread offense, I have zero faith in us gaining a yard in smash mouth type formations. I've said this for 3 years now.

 

Just curious but what about all the wide open TD's he missed? How about all the dropped interceptions he threw? I do like your glass half full approach though.

 

I wonder IF it really was the QB he wanted.

 

This has been my biggest disappointment with Lazor, supposedly he is the GUY when it comes to perfecting the QB sneak. Well where in the **** was it?

 

RT is just like every other player on the team. They are products of poor coaching. For a guy who walks around the practice field pointing out loose shoelaces and gum wrappers on the field he sure does not do a good job at making sure his players play thier positions with the same detail. I look at them and I see sloppy execution and lacking discipline. If they would of got into the post season they would of embarassed themselves.

The best thing RT can do for himself this offseason is to hire a QB coach to work with him. The kid has plenty of potential and he has displayed enough skill to be classified as a legitimate starter. I could pick him as my QB over at least 10-15 current starters right now.

 

So when Ryan Tannehill improves as much as he did between 2013 and 2014, he can be said to be a product of poor coaching?

 

Yes because he has the ability to be better. Poor coaching is holding the team back


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LOL This is what I been pointing out to them too, they use every excuse in the book for RT17 (Albert hurt, Dropped Passes, OL Sucks, New System) But when another QB has 'excuses' (I.E., AD14--Green, Gresham, Eifert hurt, New System) he wont get that argument because he's not RT17, these arguments are so one sided its not even funny, but the fake stats thing is just hilarious.

 

I picked after three games b/c that's when there was a clear statistical break in his stats. There was a significant jump in his completion percentage at that point. After that point Tannehill's averages were pretty consistent so the averages wouldn't be altered much by moving the adjustment period anywhere in the first half of the season. We all knew there would be some adjustment period so I came into the season expecting early struggles. I was looking forward to the point (if it came) where the noise from the adjustment period was eliminated and his production stabilized. The stats after game three were a pretty consistent trend. I am a former scout so my focus is always on projecting how players will do going forward. When I'd look at a college player I'd try and eliminate plays that aren't likely to be replicated against pro players. So, for example, I might ignore results against inferior teams or inferior players. My concern was never to try and create an accounting of what happened, but rather to isolate the results that are most predictive going forward. In the pros, if I were trying to predict how a QB might do over a final stretch then I would consider changes in his supporting cast. Let's say you had a team that lost a great WR to injury and the QB's stats were significantly different from the point of that injury (better or worse). I would consider the stats after the injury to be more predictive (or more reflective of his current situation) of how the QB would do over that final stretch without the WR and would ignore the earlier results. I'm not looking to fabricate stats. I'm looking for the stats that are more likely to be predictive going forward. Usually that's a pretty simple concept that most people get but sometimes there's one or two that don't either due to ignorance or just being obstinate.

 

Miami doesn't have that level of skill players...at all. So your argument is as lame as the rest of the jabbering you're posting.

But keep calling reasons excuses...if it helps you sleep.

 

LOL you guys would cry if we had M. Sanu and G. Little at WR (unfortunately, AD14 isnt RT17 so he doesn't get that excuse), but they would be another 'excuse' for why RT17 couldn't lead us to the playoffs.

 

Um, Andy Dalton IS sort of beyond the excuses at this point, don’t you think? *Tannehill isn’t, really. Sure, if you want, let’s give AD an absolute 100% pass on this year’s playoff loss, he was missing key players, fine. What about the last 3 years?* Dalton has been to the playoffs 4 years IN A ROW now, How has he played in ALL FOUR YEARS?* I’ll tell you how.* He’s 0-4 all time in the playoffs, throwing a whopping 1 touchdown, and 6 interceptions in those 4 games, *rocking 55% completions and an overwhelming QB rating in the high 50s or so. Barely over 200 yards a game.* *As far as the ‘excuses’ thing goes,* We can’t necessarily say the same thing about Tannehill (yet). For all we know Tannehills first playoff appearance will embarrass all of Daltons ever, or Be Daltonesque. Who knows? Either way, when it comes to playoffs/crunch time It’s a lot safer to say that Dalton is beyond the ‘excuses’ because, regardless of his cast, it looks like he’s basically at his ceiling, *floating around and bumping his head every so-often. *Tannehill, however, Is on a very positive upward trend in his career DESPITE the “excuses” which are pretty detrimental to begin with. *Wait and see mode.

 

Dalton making the playoffs ONCE let alone FOUR times is an argument that can't be made for RT17 considering he is 0-3 in seasons with a playoff appearance. I don't know what you trying to get at with this. Your trying to make Dalton look like a fool because he is 0-4 in playoffs yet RT17 isn't even 0-1 because he's never made it. I will say this though, in 2013, all RT17 had to do was put away bad Bills and Jets teams to get in to the playoffs, but RT17 orchestrated a whopping combined 7 points in them games, I wouldn't call that setting the world on fire..

 

What am I getting at? Lol. One players career is trending favorably upward while the other is actually trending downward. Almost regression style. Not to mention the fact that the QB this year who was statistically worse got into the playoffs while the better QB stayed at home. I wonder why that is, exactly? Why did the better rated QB this year not go to the playoffs while the one who was statically worse did? Maybe some of those excuses are actually valid? No way, couldn't be, right? Tannehill hasn't been able to prove he is better or worse in the playoffs yet because the TEAM hasn't been there yet. Andy Daltons TEAM has been there. 4 years straight. And he has s**the the bed all 4 times. He's running out of excuses don't ya think? No one can say how Tannehill will play in the postseason, but I can tell you any betting person would pick Tannehill as the one to put money on to outperform Daltons previous 4 attempts, if you're comparing the two and their 'excuses'.

 

All we have for RT17 is crunch time performances: in 2013, all RT17 had to do was put away bad Bills and Jets teams to get in to the playoffs, but RT17 orchestrated a whopping combined 7 points in them games, I wouldn't call that setting the world on fire. You can try to to ignore this all you want but RT17 performed terribly against horrible teams in crunch time, at least AD14 performed terribly against playoff teams..

 

Did Tannehill steal your wallet?

 

I'm not a big believer in "clutch" vs. "not clutch". Generally I find that with almost all players in comes down to opportunities. Playoffs are a small sample for Dalton. Odds are that given enough opportunities his playoff numbers would be closer to his regular season numbers. The one caveat is that you generally face better opponents in the playoffs so that could impact the numbers. More so if you're a player that's physically limited. I think that's the case with Dalton. I see him as a decent QB, probably a bottom half starter. But he's probably at his ceiling. His stats from season to season are pretty stable. With a very good supporting cast (very good receivers and at least a good OL and good defensive support) in 2013 he produced about an 88 rating, just under 4,300 yards, 62% completion %, 7.3 YPA. That's probably as good as it gets. It doesn't seem likely that he'll continue to improve. From a scouting POV Tannehill is very different. He came in very raw, but he has elite measurables. His numbers have improved every year rather than stagnated. And he has never had a very good supporting cast. I don't think his receivers this year where horrid but with the injury to Clay they were probably never good either. The OLs over these last couple of years may be the worst OLs in Miami's history. In the few short stretches where he's had decent pass protection, Tannehill's numbers have been in the top 5. I don't know if he'll ever reach that level on a consistent basis, but there are certainly many indications that he could.

 

Is this your normal response to getting smoked on a message board? Repeating the same thing? Lol. So you'd take Andy Dalton over tannehill? Knowing that Dalton is basically the post season anti clutch, just because tannehill and his team had an epic failure In 2013? Regardless of the fact that daltons career is trending downward while tannehills is up? Also why the drastic change on the whole excuses bit you were laughing about?

 

Tannehill is not even getting his team to the playoffs, that is way worse then anti-playoffs.

I will say the Bengals OL is better then the Dolphins, or is Dalton better at escaping the pressure??

I'm pretty sure Dalton would have loved to have had our WR crew in that game Sunday.

 

uh.. Dalton had a much worse year than tannehill and made playoffs. Tannehill had a much better year and missed the playoffs. What does that tell you about their respective teams? I'm pretty sure tannehill would have liked to have most of the Bengals roster for most of the season. Or at the very least their O line that is top 3 in the league.....

 

Im not one for excuses, im pointing out the fact that you fickle fans use every excuse in the book for RT17 but if its any other QB in the NFL, he has no excuses. It's really that simple. Most posters on here proved that, you can keep saying RT17 is on an upclimb but pundits been saying the same thing for Jay Cutler for YEARS now and look how far he's gotten the Bears...

 

Why did Dalton get into the playoffs when he played considerably worse than tannehill this year? I mean it's not even really close? If your answer is something along the lines of "better team" or "they have one of the best offensive lines in the league" ... then that means some of the "excuses" for tannehill are justified, eh? I'll wait.