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Does a team need the deep ball to win?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by danmarino, Jan 27, 2015.

  1. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I've read a lot about how Tannehill needs to improve on his deep passing game. Granted, I think we all would love to see him fling the ball like Marino did or Rodgers does, but is it that important?

    "Brady was one of the NFL's least accurate deep passers during the regular season, continuing a three-year trend. Brady's completion percentage on throws that traveled at least 20 yards in the air was 28.3 percent this season (ranking 28 of 33 qualified quarterbacks) and has been 29.9 percent over the past three years. The only quarterbacks with lower such percentages over that longer period are Carson Palmer and Brandon Weeden."

    http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/160065/inside-slant-super-bowl-qb-report-on-tom-brady-and-russell-wilson

    How is it that Brady can't hit the broadside of a barn past 20 yards and the Pats still win?
     
  2. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Because they had four players in the top 33 in the league in yards after the catch, which is exactly the kind of player Miami should be targeting as the recipient of Ryan Tannehill's passes.

    Outside of Jarvis Landry, who was 18th, the Dolphins didn't have a player in the top 65 in the league in that area in 2014.
     
  3. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    79% of teams that win the turnover battle win the game, regardless of any other statistic. The Patriots win because they play with a less inflated ball, which in turn significantly reduces their fumbles. This provides them with a huge competitive advantage.
     
  4. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I agree.
     
  5. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Boy, and if you go all the way back through 2007, you can't find a year in which they were up near the top of the league in fumbles, and in fact they're near the bottom of the league (meaning lower numbers of fumbles) every year but one.
     
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  6. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    lol...I was going to mention this too. I still think the deep ball is overrated though.
     
  7. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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  8. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Forget the deep ball for a second, Its been proven with the proper coaching staff you can win with ******* Trent Dilfer or Brad Johnson. Question you gotta ask yourself is, do we have the proper staff? NO! So more likely then not, we will need a deep ball to win and overcome the coaching deficincies.
     
  9. bran

    bran Senior Member

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    both of these are the right answers. the patriots throw short all the time the difference is they have guys that take the 4 or 5 yard routes and turn them into 15-20 yard plays. its something i wish the dolphins would do more with wallace. plus the obvious cheating helps significantly as well.
     
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  10. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The Patsies do it despite having Edelman who drops more balls (11 this year) then a broadway hooker. You dont need a great deep ball to win. Never have, never will. Its the hardest part for most QBs to develop. Joe Flacco and Eli Manning always had a solid ball but they struggle in other areas like under pressure or when throwing on the run. For some other QB's it comes and goes.

    The thing is we dont even try the deep ball. Tannehill had only 9% of his passes go 20 yards or further in the air which was fewest in the league percentage wise and 5th fewest in terms of overall attempts behind Wilson, Bortles, Geno and McCown. He tied for 2nd fewest int's and fewest td's on deep passes. His accuracy % calculated by PFF which factors in drops (4 by dolphins wr's on passes of 20 yards or further) and Tannehill ranked 13th/25 qualifying QB's with a 37% accuracy %. The accuracy % puts him ahead of Qb's like Eli, Stafford, Foles, Brady, Newton and Kaepernick but of the 12 Qb's in front of him, all of them except Hoyer and McCown are studs like Brees and Rodgers so being efficient on deep passes is a must. https://www.profootballfocus.com/da...&wk=1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-17
     
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  11. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    Due to, in large part, to winning the turnover differential.

    Haven't you heard? They're coached to never fumble the ball.
     
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  12. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    *allegedly

    :shifty:
     
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  13. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    You don't need it, but if you have an asset like 11 it can make you a very dangerous team.
     
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  14. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    case he's tom freakin brady, he turns chicken sh^^ to chicken salad..

    what happened to their two highly drafted receivers of two years ago...what were their names again?....exactly...if they had a real good talent evaluator they'd be unstoppable.
     
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  15. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Ask the seahawks.
     
  16. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    It's certainly helpful. Seattle, Indy, GB, Balt are always threatening over the top, and all are consistent playoff teams.

    But it doesn't necessarily have to be behind the safeties. The issue is that his YPA is below 7. That can pick up with more chunk plays over the middle, better RAC plays, etc. People talk about Chad Henne being captain check-down with a high of 6.7ypa in Miami...Tannehill's high is 6.9. It's a number that HAS to improve if we want to make consistent playoff runs.
     
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  17. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    My only issue is not even attempting to go deep. There was a game this season (Baltimore I think) where we didn't attempt a pass over 20 yards IIRC. You have to at least keep a defense honest.
     
  18. 13Machine8385

    13Machine8385 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It is absolutely important.

    You'd be hard pressed to find any team that ever won a Superbowl without winning an important game in the playoffs with a deep pass or at least the threat of it. You have to at least demonstrate that you are capable of throwing deep.
     
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  19. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    The Patriots didn't attempt deep (20+ yards in the air) passes any more often in 2014 than the Dolphins.
     
  20. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    The Patriots haven't demonstrated that any more than Miami did in 2014, yet they're in the Super Bowl and are not underdogs.

    If the Dolphins were in the Super Bowl and weren't thought to be any worse than the opposing team, surely you'd consider the season a smashing success.
     
  21. 13Machine8385

    13Machine8385 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The Patriots didn't win the Superbowl this year.

    Are you saying that NE doesn't have the threat of throwing deep? That 40 yd completion to Gronk over the top was a big play in the Ravens game.

    Even Differ had a pass over the top for a TD on the first score of Superbowl 35.

    Teams MUST demonstrate that they can go deep to win it all. Even the '85 Bears had a deep threat.
     
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  22. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    I'm saying that in the 2014 season as a whole, the Patriots neither attempted nor completed a greater percentage of downfield throws (20+ yards in the air) than the Dolphins.
     
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  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah...I got called out in another thread for suggesting that Gronkowski may have been used to stretch the field for the Pats. Turns out, he was only targeted like 4 times over 20yards, if I'm remembering it right.
     
  24. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Targeted in that area less than once per game on average (13 times on the year), and hit in that area about once every three games (5 times on the year).
     
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  25. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    It really depends. I dont think you can really say yes or no. Break the field down into 10 yard increments. If you have a team that can consistently put themselves in 3rd and short, and also get 12-20 yard chunk plays, then no. Its about matchups. Do you have 11 players on the field that will win their matchup consistently. You can spread a team out laterally, not just vertically. Of course having a deep threat removes a player out of the box. They cant stuff 8 in the 10 yard box because you can go over the top. But if you have a player like Gronk...who destroys his matchups, then no...you dont need a deep threat per say.
     
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  26. His'nBeatYour'n

    His'nBeatYour'n Glass Ceiling Repairman

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    If you have a future hall of famer, like the Pats, you don't. But if you have Mike Wallace, and you can't consistently hit the deep ball, you're not going to win. The 2014 deep ball comparison to Pats is interesting, until you realize that the Pats would have a much better deep ball game if they had Wallace or even Hartline
     
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  27. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    And likewise, the Dolphins would be more competitive if their receivers were better fits with the short passing game and were better at getting YAC, like the Patriots' receivers.

    The Dolphins are running an offense with two starting receivers (Hartline and Wallace) that don't fit with it, while the Patriots are running an offense that fits the talents of everyone involved.
     
  28. 13Machine8385

    13Machine8385 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm saying that in order to win a Superbowl a team must have the ability to throw deep.

    Do the Patriots and Seahawks have this ability?
     
  29. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    How would we know if they do?
     
  30. 13Machine8385

    13Machine8385 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I would think that the last Seahawks game is still fresh in your memory. Deep ball won the game.

    Brady is a future HOFer. Do you think defense respect his ability to throw deep? I already referenced the 40 yd completion to Gronk over the safety in the AFC championship game. The threat is there.
     
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  31. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    there is truth to this..but I think any team can win with wallace being one of the guys, get the right #2 and #4
     
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  32. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    If the threat is there for the Patriots, then you'd have to say the threat is also there for every team other than perhaps Oakland.
     
  33. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Not if the QB can't throw downfield, and the offense is therefore predicated around the shorter passing game. Then Wallace is miscast, and his salary prohibits the acquisition of talent at other positions.
     
  34. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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    look at the charts in post #7

    almost everything you need to know is in those charts. SCROLL DOWN the article you may be surprised what you find out
     
  35. 13Machine8385

    13Machine8385 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Pretty much...... just not us.

    In 2014 Oakland completed 8 passes over 40 yards. NE and Seattle completed 8 also. Miami was 4. It should also be mentioned that our longest completion was 50 yards. Worst in the league.

    Every team that can and will throw deep is not a contender. The point is that to be a contender you need to have that element and prove that you can complete throws down the field.
     
  36. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    I don't know about that. I remember Hartline catching some slants late in the year and picking up nice yards. Wallace could do the same thing, the problem is the routes that create YAC are not called. We seem to call a lot of curls.
     
  37. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Do you know how frequently passes of 40 yards or more in the air are attempted league-wide?
     
  38. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I see what your saying...Im all about finding two receivers that fit your script..But want to keep wallace.
     
  39. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    They do have a Hartline, just a better version. His name is Julian Edelman. Or Branden LaFell. Both of who can get YAC.
     
  40. 13Machine8385

    13Machine8385 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Nope...

    I just know that every Superbowl winner in recent memory could throw a deep ball.

    We will too. Just need a few more pieces in place.
     

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