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Bret Bielema Says Talks To Coach Phins Broke Down In 2012 Because Of Russell Wilson

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by shamegame13, Jan 30, 2015.

  1. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    He had an average QB rating of 95.9 and an average YPA of 7.6 in those games, and that doesn't even consider what he did running the ball.

    What QB rating and YPA do you think would be fair to expect from a QB under those conditions? Are we arguing that the guy should be functioning like a first-ballot hall of famer, or are we just comparing him to Ryan Tannehill, who is nothing other than an average QB in the NFL at the present time?
     
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  2. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It's not a fallacy. Asked to do more the whole season, not just isolated. We know Geno Smith can have a perfect rating. We've seen him do it once. He needed to do more in those games above, and he didn't.
     
  3. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    And that could be said about every QB in history who ever laced 'em up, even the first-ballot hall of famers. I could find a vast number of games in which Joe Montana, for example, "needed to do more, but didn't."
     
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  4. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    So, now we're getting more on the same page, that win/loss isn't on the QB, solely. What is interesting, is that in those losses, Wilson isn't leading his team to note points, than can usually be expected of him.

    Tannehill had had his stinkers of games, too, but his defense has contributed far less than Wilson's.

    Many of us were made fun of for talking about all the drops Tannehill suffered from throughout especially the early part of the season. But here comes that reason for Wilson.
     
  5. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I keep seeing qb rating and ypa to defend him in those games. What about yards and touchdowns? 95.9, ypa of 7.6, but a little more than 1 TD a game and 1/5 of a rushing TD. Can he carry the team through 3-4 seasons of less than spectacular defensive play? WE DON'T KNOW, and those professing to know are just projecting. I think he will still be successful. I don't think he'd be just one play away from 3 consecutive super bowls of course. I also don't think he'll crumble like Jay Cutler or something. But until it happens, you don't know.
     
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  6. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Wins and losses aren't pinned solely on the QB, but that doesn't mean the other parts of teams that are also responsible for wins and losses affect how the QB plays individually.

    Just because the Seahawks -- as a team -- benefit from a great defense and running game, doesn't mean Russell Wilson's individual play is hinging on it.
     
  7. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    QB rating and YPA are strongly correlated with winning and with individual QB play. If we're looking at how Russell Wilson is functioning individually in a way that contributes to his team's success, those are the preferential measures.
     
  8. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    But their careers are over. Wilson's isn't. So we're guessing on whether he'll continue to have such success without a top RB and top defense. I'm a fan of Wilson's and think he can. But I'm not ignorant to the fact he may not be able to. I love Wilson. Huge fan. Hopes they get him more receiving help (selfishly as I have money on him). Hell I'd like to see Lynch leave so he can be asked to do more.
     
  9. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    He already has success -- again, individually -- when his currently good defense and running game don't perform well.
     
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  10. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Really?

    It takes more than the QB to complete a pass, last i checked.
     
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  11. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Having the best RB and best defense in the league alters your game plan. You don't have to take as many chances. You don't have to throw 40 times. Hell you don't even have to throw any TD's, have a 5.1 ypa, not throw for 200 yards, and your team wins by scoring 30 points. A week later throw 0 TDs, 2 INTs, and you win 38-17.

    Wilson's play doesn't hinge on having the best RB and best Defense in a while, but it surely benefits.
     
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  12. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Over a full season? Geno Smith has had a perfect QB rating game. His last 4 games he had over 100 rating. Is it foolish to question whether he's a good QB? No, it's only 4 games.

    Again you're debating against someone who think he can excel no matter what. But I'm also open to the possibility he might not. I'm looking at this objectively, and there is no given in the NFL.
     
  13. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    You mean in isolation many times throughout multiple seasons with consistent performance in most of those situations.

    But no. We've never seen it. Apparently.
     
  14. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Tannehill also has not performed individually as well as Russell Wilson. Or even close. Measure that however you want, by film, by statistics, by star charts, etc. It's a fact.
     
  15. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    What about yards and touchdowns? They're there. Or haven't you noticed him contributing about 250 yards and 1.4 TDs per game in those FIVE games being cherry picked from one season where the defense is losing.

    Of course no comment on the fact that he's a 4300 yards passing, 900 yards rushing, 30 total touchdowns player in the 17 games in his career where he WAS asked to drop back 35+ times a game. Of course no comment on that.

    But when have seen him leeeeeeaaaned oonnnn...
     
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  16. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    In the 5 games this year, not so much, Apparently. 1 out of 5. So when the defense starts sucking and they give up 25 pts a game, can we expect them to go 3-13/4-12 give or take?

    Sure he'll have 18 TDs, 3 rushing, and a great YPA and QBR. But they'll win 3-4 games, judging by what happened last year if their defense let up just a little. Not even Atlanta Falcons bad. In the other games he threw it for roughly 26 times a game, in those 5 we're talking about it's 31. Not an insignificant difference. So he was asked to do more in those games. 1-4. Those are the facts sir.

    It's no coincidence that Tony Romo (who I highly regard as well) finally had a not terrible Defense, and a terrific run game, and only attempted as many times basically as Wilson and he had his best year ever. You can't tell me the best defense and top RB doesn't help QB numbers and play.
     
  17. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    If that was Tannehill, people would be talking about how Wilson would of lobbed it to Lynch, had better ball placement, or ran it in himself.
     
  18. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That stat means nothing unless you show those games the defense let up a lot of points. Could be games they were kicking arse and had more possessions. Throwing 35 times while down is different than throwing 35 times while ahead.

    Last year, when the defense wasn't all world, they were 1-4.
     
  19. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Once again, the team benefits, but there is no evidence that Wilson does individually.

    Based on the available objective evidence, it's more plausible to assume that Wilson would be playing just as well as he does individually if his running game and defense were not as talented.
     
  20. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    LOL. So let me get this straight. We're intentionally tossing away examples where Russell Wilson is performing too well to be included in the sample? LMAO. Ok. Yeah I think we can conclude this one.
     
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  21. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    And while it's certainly a possibility, it's also an improbability when you consider how he plays individually when his currently very talented defense and running game don't perform well.
     
  22. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    That's what you got from that post huh? lol
     
  23. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Incidentally Russell Wilson had a 95 passer rating while playing from behind this year (110 of 169 for 1348 yards, 9 TD, 5 INT) not to mention he ran the football 34 times for 348 yards (a 10+ yard average) with 3 more TDs.

    So, uhhh, there goes that theory.
     
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  24. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No. That is YOUR strawman. My argument is, in cases where the defense didn't do too well, what is his performance. YOUR strawman is, if you look at games where he threw 35+ times he's fantastic. That's fine. But has absolutely nothing with games where the defense didn't do too well.

    You are usually good about calling out strawman too but you're guilty of such here.

    Again, I'm in the camp that says he can do it, that he's really good and will excel when asked to do more. But I'm entertaining the opposite argument and agreeing it is a valid position to have, even if ultimately wrong at the end of his career.
     
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  25. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Again, a 95.9 QB rating and a 7.6 YPA, on average.

    Why is this still an issue?
     
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  26. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    In his career Russell Wilson has the following stats while TRAILING:

    275 of 429 for 3383 yards, 28 TD, 15 INT, 86 runs for 693 yards and 4 TD, 33 Sacks

    That's a 96 passer rating and that doesn't even account for the 700 yards rushing and extra TDs.

    OOPS.
     
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  27. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Oh but I'm sure that's all because of MARSHAWN right?

    Except Marshawn Lynch has only taken 238 carries from 2012 to 2014 in TRAILING situations. So essentially Russell Wilson has his number called 2.3x more often than Marshawn Lynch when the Seattle Seahawks are trailing, and Wilson responds the same way he does on most downs...with excellence.

    BUT WHEN HAVE WE SEEN RUSSELL WILSON LEEEEEANNED OOONNNNNN!
     
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  28. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Incidentally for the sake of good house keeping Robert Turbin, who has taken the overwhelming majority of run snaps not taken by Marshawn Lynch or Russell Wilson, has carried the ball 53 times in those trailing situations.

    So Russell Wilson gets his number called over 65% of the time in those trailing situations and he comes through with the usual: awesomeness.
     
  29. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    But Wilson has a better OL and WR corps, CK???
     
  30. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Huge stepdown from his normal numbers. See, he throws a lot more INTs when trailing. 3.4% INTs. His career is 2.1%. His INT rate when not trailing (subtracting these attempts and INTs) means he throws for a 1.3% INT rate when not trailing.

    57% of his career INTs came on 34% of his attempts, when playing from behind. So yeah, he makes a lot more mistakes when trailing. Thanks!
     
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  31. bran

    bran Senior Member

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    its the grass is greener, you always want what you can't have motif, everyone and everybody has it better.
     
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  32. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    And is that any different for the average QB, or even for the very good QBs in the league?
     
  33. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I dunno I don't have advanced stats. But we need to compare to elites not just the average QB as we think he is above the average QB.
     
  34. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Ah right I forgot...all pros like J.R. Sweezy and Jermaine Kearse...
     
  35. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

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    Congratulations to Russell Wilson on his 2014 season and almost a second Super Bowl win.
    Wilson, Russell TDS 20 INT 7 YDS 3,475 RTG 95.0

    Keep on trying Tannehill but congratulations on making the 4000 club.
    Tannehill, Ryan TDS 27 INT 12 YDS 4,045 RTG 92.8
     
  36. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    LMAO.

    Wow that was thin. Like wet toilet paper thin. So a guy has a 95 passer rating, slices and dices the defense with his legs, sticks the ball in the end zone a bunch, but because he's more efficient in situations in which he SHOULD be more efficient, this all means nothing?

    That's bass ackward.

    So basically we're punishing the guy for being unusually good in ALL situations.

    You're essentially grasping at straws here. Reaching for whatever you can find no matter how completely and utterly, foolishly invalid.
     
  37. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Who do we consider to be "elite" then? That's never an easy to agree on issue. I think normally there are four guys everyone agrees, being Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. So let's do them.

    Drew Brees Trailing: 249 of 362, 2506 yards, 16 TD, 9 INT, 12 runs for 49 yards and 0 TD, 11 Sacks (92.6 Rating)
    Peyton Manning Trailing: 170 of 265, 1903 yards, 14 TD, 7 INT, 4 runs for 1 yard and 0 TD, 8 Sacks (92.1 Rating)
    Aaron Rodgers Trailing: 106 of 164, 1124 yards, 7 TD, 4 INT, 6 runs for 54 yards and 1 TD, 10 Sacks (88.6 Rating)
    Tom Brady Trailing: 121 of 193, 1139 yards, 9 TD, 3 INT, 8 runs for 26 yards and 0 TD, 10 Sacks (86.3 Rating)

    Russell Wilson Trailing: 110 of 169, 1348 yards, 9 TD, 5 INT, 34 runs for 348 yards and 3 TD, 12 Sacks (95.0 Rating)

    So, officially:

    1. Highest passer rating of the group (95.0 vs. Group Avg of 89.9)
    2. Highest TD rate of the group (5.58% vs. Group Avg of 4.46%)
    3. Highest yards per play of the group (8.35 vs. Group Avg of 6.46)

    But I'm sure some completely B.S. reason will be found to have this evidence tossed out of court.
     
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  38. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Dude, I don't know how many times I need to say it. I think he can do it. I'm on the SAME side as you. I believe he's special. But I'm not so dismissive of the counterpoint. Until it happens, through a season, he hasn't done it yet. I believe he can, but I'm open to the possibility he doesn't.

    Tony Romo has had spectacular numbers with the worst defense in the NFL and they've gone 8-8 each year until this one, when the defense moved up to only 10th worse and they got him a run game.

    Does Seattle go 13-3, without Marshawn Lynch and a bottom third defense? That is the question. Individually he will shine. But we're talking about the success. "He's a winner." Will that continue if he was given Dallas' or Atlanta's defense?
     
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  39. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Is this a serious question though? Who gets held up to this standard? What quarterback in NFL history gets held up to this standard to where we expect him to go 13-3 with UDFA caliber receivers and tight ends, a mediocre to bad offensive line, and a bottom-third defense, simply because he's got a good running back?

    If this is how you treat quarterbacks you're supposedly a fan of, I'd hate to see how you treat quarterbacks you dislike.
     
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  40. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Right, that's my question. Without an elite defense, and without a good running game, will Wilson maintain those stats through an entire season? Taking a couple games out of three seasons to make a "season" isn't the same thing. I'm not saying he can't do it, I'm saying that we can't say he will, just like I say that people making predictions about Tannehill can't say for certain.

    It's fine, we differ on our belief of how having the most dominant defense in the game affects Wilson's mindset when in games. It certainly seems that when teams score more than 20, Wilson, while having good stats like ypa, didn't really lead his team to more points than they usually get. That might change, it might not.
     
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