Bret Bielema Says Talks To Coach Phins Broke Down In 2012 Because Of Russell Wilson

Ask Tannehill I'd he would rather have had Sherman or a dominant defense. Ask Wilson if he would have traded his defense for Sherman.

If we're all being honest, we know what both would say...

 

That's misleading, Todd. Wilson has more than 1 fumble, just he's only lost one fumble. He fumbled 11 times this year.

 

Id say that's pretty accurate.. I mean personal preferences might switch one or two.. But really.. Can't get much closer then that. I agree where you have 17 BTW.

 

Honestly if we are gonna play the over rated game.. I think Luck is alot closer to over rated then Russell Wilson. I'm not as enamored with the guy.

 

The thing one has to consider with Luck is the "degree of difficulty" of his play. He throws among the highest percentages of deep passes in the league, and has among the highest completion percentages of those passes in the league, as well. He had by far the highest number of passing yards on passes of that nature in the league in 2014, and that came with 12 TDs and only 3 INTs at that range. Pretty good for a third-year guy.

 

fair ranking for RT

 

As accurate of list I can recall seeing.

 

Definitely can't quibble a lot with that list except I'd move Carson Palmer higher. Once Arians system clicked for him he's been pretty damn good.

 

Yeah but if you go by the numbers Wilson is clearly superior lol.

 

Luck also plays in a horrible division and has since he got in the league.

 

I agree. IJS if you go by the numbers that people are throwing around to support Wilson then he's better than Luck too.

 

Not this year. Of course, Wilson was playing with Larry, Curly and Moe, so his TD% went down, but so did his INT%. He's really good at turnovers. Comparing last year to this Luck's accuracy only took a slight bump up, but a huge jump in ypa. His attempts went from 35 to 38 a game, but over 900 more yards. So he was gun slinging down the field this past year with a much higher TD % too. An emerging T.Y. Hilton helps. Still threw too many INTs for my tastes but not terrible. Nothing you wouldn't see Peyton Manning throw throughout his career.

He's no Aaron Rodgers yet (more accurate, less INTs by quite a bit) but if he incrementally gets better at those two, he's right there. Effing Lucky Colts.

I gotta tell ya, I just can't pick Wilson over Luck I don't care what anyone says. I'd hitch my wagon to Luck and ride off into the sunset ...

 

No, it's not misleading. I said turnovers, the definition of which is very specific. Wilson has 1 turnover on 308 carries in 3 years, period. A fumble is not a turnover, just as a deflected pass is not an INT. I'm not the one being misleading. You are.

If I wanted to mention fumbles, I'd mention Brady's 36 fumbles in his first 3 years starting.... Rodgers' 20 fumbles his first 2 years.... Luck's 28 in 3 years.... or how Manning had 10 a season ago.

 

It's misleading because you used the stat to indicate how careful and protective he is with the ball. 11 fumbles is not being protective. I don't care about Brady, Rodgers, or whoever, we're talking about Wilson. A scrambling QB who fumbled it 11 times.

 

Agreed. Wilson fumbled it 11 times and his team recovered it 10 times, a 90.9 % recovery rate. You can't expect that to be the norm going forward. If he continues fumbling at this rate, it's quite possible that next year he will have 4-5 more turnovers, maybe even more, than he did this year.

 

Mostly bulk stats, which are pretty much a function of pass attempts. Rogers has had the gaudy bulk stats (total yards, TDs, etc.). Wilson hasn't. But if you projected his career numbers over a 600 pass attempt season, he'd have 4740 yards, 35 TDs and 12 INTs to go with his 500-900 rushing yards and another 5-6 TDs. And if he did that, to go with his 2 SB appearances, 1 SB win, league best 4th quarter comeback numbers, and career QB rating of 98.6 all in his first 3-4 years, there really wouldn't be anyone questioning his greatness. I know, I know, some people doubt that he could achieve those kind of numbers with more pass attempts, but the fact is that he has been better and more efficient when he has thrown 30+ passes per game than when he hasn't. Most QBs get into grooves when they throw more and he seems to as well, which is one of the reasons he's been so good in comeback situations.

 

There is a certain degree of nuance to fumble recovery-rates. Different types of plays have different recovery probabilities. It is not always a 50-50 proposition. For example, defenses have a lesser likelihood of recovering a fumble from a QB run than a non-QB run or a sack. 75% of aborted snaps are recovered by the offense.

91% recovery rate is still way above what one would expect, but I suspect that even a regression to the mean won't bring that number to 50%.

 

And if they like a deflated ball, the ball doesn't bounce as far, so it's easier for the fumbling team to recover. At least that's what was argued in the deflate thread

 

I theorized that. I think its a valid theory. But in relation to this, we probably need more information to determine how much of an outlier the fumble-loss rate for Wilson.