Exactly! I agree that this is the key question going forward. There are other needs and holes to fill of course, but the answer to this question will have the biggest impact on our season.
There are a lot more considerations than just these things. Primarily, the availability of better coaches, and those coaches' willingness to come to Miami. You can't just go out and sign a coach that is worth $8M/yr. And to take it a step further, there has been a common theme we have heard from recent FA acquisitions; Miami is an organization that is innovative and forward thinking. These are things that have been absent from the organization, and next offseason when they likely are looking for a new HC, they will be a lot more attractive to the good coaches than they have been previously. But again, if Joe Philbin were out-performing his salary, then he would choose to hit the open market. The fact that he won't take that chance inherently means he doesn't even believe he is outperforming his salary.
Just have faith in free and open markets. These are the best tools in the world for evaluating value and performance. You can do this for players, but it is even more accurate for coaches, since the markets aren't fixed with things like salary caps and drafts.
The first thing I bolded is true, but it also applies to the second thing I bolded in association with Philbin. Also, Philbin had a year left on his contract when it was extended, and so we have the variables involved there that are similar to the ones for players who are extended before their contracts expire. Think Ryan Tannehill for example. Should he wait until he's a free agent and let the market drive his price up (presumably), or should he extend his contract before then and go with a great deal more of a guarantee of what he'll be getting?
Coaching markets aren't really that comparable to player markets. Players have such a short career, which is often dictated by non-free market principles. Ryan Tannehill is constrained by collective bargaining rules. The Dolphins can designate him a franchise player. He has to consider injury-risk. Coaches aren't dealing with these things. Joe Philbin's career almost certainly won't end because of a freak accident or injury. If he fails as a HC, he most likely still has a career as an assistant. Ryan Tannehill is basically trying to maximize how much he is paid within a 5 year window, while navigating a labor market that is highly irregular and fixed.
Found it: http://www.thephins.com/forums/showthread.php?84230-The-Continuity-Conundrum&highlight=Continuity I'm evaluating him on his record, not other people's opinions, so I don't know what you are talking about.
Even setting aside the amorphous arguments of whether he is a good coach based on development of players, game management, etc. Joe Philbin has had a number of instances where he has been outright disrespected and embarrassed by his players. There is no way those things can be viewed as anything other than a negative.
The problem with that research is that good coaches may have been victimized by poor talent, been fired prior to the three-year mark for that reason, and not become part of the sample of coaches who went on to have "good" careers. Is it any wonder that the coaches in the "good" sample had a "good" season within their first three years? That's likely what kept them on the job!
What if Philbin likes being in Miami, and believes that he can win in Miami, if he has the right pieces? Perhaps that is why he doesn't opt to hit the open market? Now, those things may not be true, or they might be...we simply don't know. Doesn't the part I bolded also apply to Philbin? Wouldn't he want to stay here, if those things are true? Things that make Miami attractive to other potential HCs would also make Miami attractive to Philbin. I think that is Tannephins point...we can make all sorts of guesses, and some of them very may well be right...but we can't be 100% sure.
You are saying that Philbin is taking less money to stay in Miami? Certainly you can make that point, I just completely disagree. The guy never received an offer to coach anywhere else, and the only other organization to even interview him prior to coming to Miami was TB. I'm not sure why more demand for his services would exist now.
That could just as easily represent teams' needs to win ASAP to maintain maximum revenues, and the notion that head coaches are used as scapegoats to "hit the reset button" when teams haven't won enough over a certain period. Hell, Don Shula and Tom Landry were fired. What does that tell you?
Which is my point. Philbin has failed in the criteria which has historically been used by the NFL to evaluate its coaches job performance. They did not make "poor talent" or other excuses. I will go with this standard, you can go with whatever you wish...
like to point out, I'm not a huge Philbin fan, just saying that there is definitely information that we aren't privy to.
We get a amazing compliment to miller ala the hype gurley gets, to our offense and suddenly tanehill and philbin will look like geniuses
Can't say that I agree or disagree with Hyde (whom of all the local guys I like alot), but isn't it kinda like tasting the spaghetti sauce before you put the herbs and spices in it ?? I mean, FA is a week old... Sure all the big guns may be spent (tomatoes, sausage and beef) but the real heart of FA (onions, garlic, basil, oregano, red pepper flakes, etc) to me is the cheaper, veteran depth guys that can potentially slide into a starting spot if you really need them to. There is still more to come, I would assume...
That criterion may have everything to do with revenue and almost nothing to do with head coaching competence.
So the coaches who, according to your criterion, were successful but were nonetheless fired, says nothing to you about the quality of your criterion. It sounds like you'd rather not consider any information that doesn't comport with what you'd like to believe, then.
What was it about early success that you failed to understand?? How does guys fired after 25 year careers equate?? And don't even bother me with Landry's expansion team start.
All I know is this team needs to make some more moves!! It's been too quiet the last couple days. Not even so much of a rumor of them signing anybody! Are they even bringing anyone else in to visit? Come on got to get a couple more players. Moves are good so far but there needs to be more.
Certainly I don't have to list for us the number of coaches who started their careers "successfully," as defined by the criterion we're working with, and were later fired, before becoming "old." Did those coaches suddenly lose their competence, or are there other variables to consider in the firing of head coaches?
Firing Shula was a mistake that has haunted this franchise for a long time. Also, Joe Philbin is one of the worst game day coaches I can ever remember watching. Not only does he make stupid mistakes but his players openly disrespect him on the sideline. It's embarrassing to watch.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selection_bias I understand "early" success. What you don't seem to understand is how that criterion biases the sample of coaches under consideration.
The fact that players openly disrespect Philbin on the sidelines, to the media, trumps everything. He doesn't need to be rah rah but he should have the respect of the players. It's clear he really doesn't.
I know this will seem to some like piling on but all you need to know about Philbin is he needed to read off of note cards to address his team in the locker room. That's just sad and pathetic.
Absolutely none. To a person who's mind is made up. Let's face it, when the team isn't winning people want scapegoats and someone is gonna be "the idiot". Ireland had his time, now its Philbin's turn.
You aren't going to be a successful coach when you can only win a portion of the lockerroom. And if there were guys that truly had his back, you wouldn't see such open and blatant disrespect. You don't disrespect and sabotage a head coach like that unless there is a general sentiment.
Worth pointing out that there's a difference between publicly supporting a guy who has power to fire you vs. publicly disrespecting someone with that power. It's not equal in both directions..
A lot of players hated Shula back in the day too! Name one stud can't live without player philbin has gotten rid of! Sent from my 6+
That could just as easily suggest the lack of established leadership among the players. Presumably on every team there are factions that aren't fully on board with the coach or that haven't bought in to the "program," and it's the player leaders who establish how other players express themselves. Randy Moss was "controllable" in large part because of the established player leadership on the Patriots in my opinion, for example.
If you'll recall some players attempted to establish a leadership council upon Philbin's arrival, if I recall correctly the specific players were Jake Long, Karlos Dansby and Reggie Bush. Philbin briefly listened to them and then dismissed them and the idea- given the course of events that followed and Philbin's obliviousness to Bullygate and the other problems in terms of team chemistry it was a bad choice. Not only that, but how coldly and cavalierly he dismissed the idea stuck with me, as did the feeling that those three players and maybe others were offended and resentful because of Philbin's dismissive response. Sure enough, all three players left the team either by their own accord or, according to news reports, Philbin made it pretty clear that he didn't want them back. He seems to prefer players who, to paraphrase what he once said, shut their mouths and went about their business. In other words, players more inclined to follow his lead and be quietly managable. Most would agree that Philbin has a rather weak personality and substandard leadership skills- considering that whose fault is it if, as you suggest, there is a "lack of established leadership among the players"? I would point the finger directly at Joe Philbin, who appears to be incapable of leading an NFL team effectively and suprisingly denied a group of his own players the ability to help him lead the team and maintain a sense of order. He desperately needed that help more than any other NFL coach that I can think of and he summarily and flippantly dismissed the offer of help in terms of regulating the team's behavior. Maybe Bullygate went as far as it did, to embarrassing and ludicrous levels, because the true leaders of the team who wanted to establish the leadership council and help Philbin to regulate the locker room had been spurned and curtly dismissed. Maybe they were resentful towards Philbin and didn't step in to diffuse the situation as well as they could have, figuring that it was Philbin's mess and since he rebuffed their offers of help in the way of leadership, he should deal with the mess himself and suffer the consequences. And so it went. Kind of ironic when you think about it, isn't it? Imagine how hard some of the players were laughing when Philbin claimed that he had no idea what was going on in the locker room and was hiding behind Dawn Aponte, reading off of note cards that she wrote for him during press conferences. Philbin failed to maintain control of the locker room and denied the players the ability to properly handle the locker room in their own way. The end result is that Philbin failed miserably in that regard, as was proven when the situation exploded and the Dolphins dirty, skid marked laundry was put on display for the world to see. Philbin has only to look in the mirror to see who is at fault for the locker room disintegration. That seems more accurate and fair to me as opposed to pointing the finger at the players and citing a lack of "established leadership", given that the offer of help and leadership from key members of the team was squashed by Philbin himself.
Shoot, I'm not even bothering to argue subjective stuff, since we have people arguing objective criteria. But subjectively, I have said many times that after seeing him on Hard Knocks, it is incomprehensible that Ross actually hired him. How could he have possibly interviewed well??
