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Clay's Offer and How to Proceed

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by zwave21, Mar 18, 2015.

  1. zwave21

    zwave21 New Member

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    Finally, some news came out of Clay Watch 2015. First, thing good for Charles for getting paid. I have zero ill feelings towards him no matter what happens. Second, we should've just Franchised him but at same time can understand with the cap situation at beginning of FA. Still, only a little bit more in the event we lose him we'd get some sort of compensation. Now, if we lose him we only get $7.1 mil back.

    So, with that said I would let Clay go.... *ducks*. Yes, that may displease some people but he is not worth the money Buffalo is giving him. And more importantly the guaranteed money and the first two years of his deal. In the deal he was given he is making more guaranteed money than Graham/Gronk with only Thomas ahead of him. Sorry, folks Charles is good but not that good. He isn't a Top 5 TE, maybe not even Top 10. For those wondering here is my rankings for TE:
    Gronk> Graham > Thomas > Olson > Bennett > Witten > Gates > Kelce > Cameron (when healthy) > Fleener > Ertz > Davis > Walker > Miller > Clay

    So, as you can see he is not worth the money the Bills are paying him and truthfully he won't produce like his contract states with the QB situation they have.

    With Clay leaving that gives us $7.1mil back on the books. Great amount of money to fill some needs with some quality.

    Needs:
    OG > ILB > FS > WR > CB > Backup QB

    No, I don't view with Clay leaving TE as a major need but if a Walford is there in the 4th, take him for sure.

    OG = Why not make a run at Wisniewski who is still available and only 25. He left Oakland for what many believe is wanted OG money and I think he'd be a better option there than at OC. I'd take a hard look at him in the $4.5 - $5mil a year range. He could solidify the other starting OG and from there we could draft a mid round developmental option.

    ILB = If we sign an OG in FA. Then I'd look to draft a ILB in rounds 1 or 2. In round 1 at #14 if ILB is the move, then I'd look to trade back a few picks and try to pick up another pick maybe get back our 3rd rounder. Draft guys I like Kendricks, Anthony, Perryman, and Pullard in that order. Kendricks being only round 1 option IMO. If we draft a ILB early we could try to swing a trade with Misi to a team like SF or Dallas who are LB needy teams. In the event that OG isn't signed then I'd consider someone like Mason Foster as FA option.

    FS = Well, the market vanished like that an good riddance. Sorry, Ron Parker isn't worth the money he got. Searcy was the guy I wanted but Tennesee snatched him up. I think FO is comfortable monitoring Delmas and resigning him if healthy to contribute. They'll probably have Thomas/Aikens fill in to begin the year and who knows maybe they develop and take over the spot...ideal situation. Either way expect this to be low level deal.

    WR = With Clay gone, it changes our WR/TE dynamic. Our core is really young and really green. Doesn't mean I hate it but adding a veteran like Greg Jennings could provide valuable leadership and good bang for your buck. Again, he isn't brought in to be the #1 option more a proven veteran who can teach this young group. With or without Jennings or a veteran.... WR needs to be a 1st or 2nd round option.

    Preference would be to land Cooper or Parker or Strong. Don't think DGB is option for us nor a 1st round one at that. If there is a shot at Cooper he'd be ideal fit. I prefer Strong to Parker but wouldn't hate either pick. 2nd round options = Algholor, Perriman, Devin Smith.

    CB = With added money I'd take a look at Patrick Robinson whom we were rumored to like early in FA. He's still young can use a change of scenery and I imagine his price tag isn't that bad. If not I'd imagine 4th or 5th round options in the draft. Sorry, guys but Coyle has stated it's difficult for CB to grasp his scheme in year one. And be foolish to draft round 1 corner with the many needs we have where we have to make an impact.

    We need to find at least 2 starters in this draft with 2-3 contributors. Going to be hard with 6 picks.

    Backup QB: Matt Moore's market shrunk just like that. Bring him back no harm in that but for right price.
     
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  2. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Of course we're going to let Clay go, no sane person thinks he deserves 12 million in a single year, no sane person thinks he should be getting 9 million more than Gronkowski the next two years. He's good, but he's not above average, and he's especially not great.
     
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  3. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Why would you franchise a player who over the last two years, his best years he's averaged 500 yards and 3 td's? I just don't get what all the hype is around Clay. He's a nice player but he hasn't done chit to warrant a franchise player tag. We signed the #3 ranked TE and Clay was ranked #12 last year. Now I understand that rankings are the be all end all but he's not even top 10. I just don't get all the angst about not paying him 8mill a year by franchising him.
     
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  4. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    Can't pay Charles ****ing Clay more money than Gronk is making the next two seasons. The bills are ******ed. Move on from him, hes replaceable.
     
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  5. zwave21

    zwave21 New Member

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    I wouldn't say of course.... Lazor loves heavy TE sets, could totally see them entertaining bringing him back. But, you right no way he should get that.

    How can someone be good but not above average? Usually Good is Above Average no?
     
  6. zwave21

    zwave21 New Member

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    Well

    1. Franchise so that we get some sort of compensation if he leaves
    2. Gives us opportunity to work long-term deal.
    3. He averaged 63.5 receptions, 682 yards, 4.5 td's the past two years so those stats are wrong
    4. Again, it's a difference of a little over a million between Transition and Franchise. If we Franchised we don't have this issue
    5. Cameron was NOT #3 TE last year, he only had 24 catches for 424 yards and 2td's, he did have 17.7 yard avg which I think was tops

    You are right he is not Top 10 or worth the money but Franchising him at the beginning would've been smart since we didn't know we'd be signing Cameron.
     
  7. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    The only way they bring him back is if we have a gentlemen agreement he will restructure next season.
     
  8. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    Loved Clay but I like what JC offers a lot more. I also think Sims is underrated and will beast for us if he gets his routes and awareness down. Love his hands.
     
  9. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    He's good but if you give a guy like Tim Wright the same opportunity, he can provide the same production, except Tim Wright actually uses his length more and has been more productive in the red zone. In the end, they're both C grade tight ends and not worthy of 7 million. 5 million is about the right price range for Wright/Clay.
     
  10. siciliansith

    siciliansith Resident Deviant

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    Im still dumbfounded by this offer! But if this is a poison pill let Buffalo swallow it! More like milk of the Poppy.
     
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  11. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    I am dumbfounded too, honestly, maybe it's because the offer isn't being made to me, but if I had to choose living in Buffalo or living in Miami......................... i'd take a pay cut... I mean, Udonis Haslem has always taken less just to stay in Miami because he knows what other places look like... I never been to Buffalo... but just looking at pictures.... I am good if I never visit that dump.
     
  12. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah, seriously.. can anyone come up with good reasons for Buffalo shelling out this kind of money for Clay? It doesn't seem like Clay is that one big piece they were missing..
     
  13. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Charles Clay at $7.6 million a year for 5 years isn't really that bad considering the contracts being tossed around in free agency in the rising cap environment. It's essentially Jordan Cameron's deal but for 5 years instead of 2 years.

    Why is that ridiculous?

    People are too obsessed with the timing of the cash flows, e.g. "He'll get paid more than Gronkowski over the next two years!"

    Maybe so, but if you consider him to be a safe asset (young, proven with your quarterback, proven in your system, not an off-field risk) then you're more likely to evaluate the contract on the basis of 3 or 4 years, or perhaps even the full 5 years, as opposed to just 2 years.

    Furthermore, you can revisit his contract in a year and ask him to help you smooth out his cap figures so that they're not so lumpy. This would be a classical restructure job. If he's not giving up any money, and not changing the timing of the payments of that money, then he should not be opposed to restructuring unless he's flat out hostile toward the Dolphins.
     
  14. zwave21

    zwave21 New Member

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    Vertical, you could be very Wright lol. If we didn't have Sims and signed Cameron would be way more worried.

    Cameron gives us a 6'5" Red Zone threat who can jump out the building. Just has to stay healthy but not like Clay hasn't had injury concerns as well.

    Agreed surprise by that Buffalo offer, but one good thing I can say is we helped raise his price tag. BTW Bills are going to have some future cap trouble and that is only good news for us.

    In terms of a discount, I doubt it happens. Guy was a mid round pick who was making chump change he's going to want to get PAID as he should. But, you are right Miami > Buffalo as a city. And Tannehill > Any Bills QB.
     
  15. zwave21

    zwave21 New Member

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    Ck, whats your preference on the situation?
     
  16. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    OK, but what specifically do you think he brings to Buffalo that makes him worth that much? It looks like they overpaid if you ask me.
     
  17. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    They take a sure-fire weapon away from their direct division competition while adding one to their own.
     
  18. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Then he should be worth that much to us too, but I think you'd have to seriously hesitate to answer yes to that, or?
     
  19. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    If it was that or add Suh then it's irrelevant, imo.
     
  20. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    A sure fire weapon? 40 yards a game average and a TD once every 4 games.
     
  21. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I agree.. IF that was the choice. But I don't think the Dolphins would've agreed to the contract Clay just signed if we didn't sign Suh. I think they would also think that was overpaying an above average, but not elite TE.
     
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  22. Undisputed

    Undisputed Banned

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    I like Cameron better.
     
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  23. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Very strongly depends on how they view Jordan Cameron. I do not believe you ever allocate $15 million per year to two TRUE tight ends.
     
  24. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    That does matter. For two games (1/8th) of your season you ensure that the team you face will not be as good, especially this late in the game with respect to free agency, to the point where the pickings have gotten kind of slim and the Dolphins wouldn't necessarily be able to just re-allocate the $7 million tied up in Clay's tender onto some other great asset that would help them win.

    On top of that, for all 16 games you get the addition of Clay as an asset that helps you win. I'm not the kind of expert that can tell you with exact precision why Charles Clay is worth $7.6 million a year.

    All I can tell you is that two defensive coordinator types who have extremely intimate knowledge of facing the Miami Dolphins over the last four years (Rex Ryan and Mike Pettine) were both really interested in pulling in Charles Clay. Clearly they think that was the guy they found hardest to game plan against on the Dolphins offense. I notice neither were interested in Mike Wallace, for example. Although Pettine did pull in Brian Hartline pretty quickly. But he faced Hartline back when Miami ran Sherman's scheme. He didn't face the version of Brian Hartline that was neutered by Lazor's scheme.
     
  25. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    There SHOULD be an asset premium placed on players you know that a division rival wants to keep but that you have the ability to take away from them. This is because the basis for that player's valuation virtually expands from 16 games per season to 18 games per season (16 games per year playing FOR your team, plus 2 games per year NOT playing for your opponent).

    As such, if Miami were willing to pay Clay $6.7 million per year all things being equal, then they should be willing to match the $7.6 million per year offer.
     
  26. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    Wouldn't doubt that either. Don't necessarily disagree w that move either. Depends what their fallback options are and what we do w the money saved.
     
  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    So.. do you think the Dolphins should match? If necessary, we can do cap-jujitsu to make it happen.

    I still don't think we should match. See, IMO Cameron gives us that red-zone target Tannehill needed. He is in that sense more valuable (IF healthy) than Clay is. I don't think Clay is worth signing (for us) at that price. Better to use the resources elsewhere (my preference = guard if a good one is available).
     
  28. Sumlit

    Sumlit Well-Known Member

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    I think the Dolphins could be inclined to match this if they can get Clay to agree to a restructure next year to spread the cap hit more evenly. I think they could very well be quite taken with the thought of Clay and Cameron together in this offense.

    It also all depends on what they think they can get with the money Clay would release. No doubt Clay leaves a hole, but if they feel they can strengthen other areas with his money to offset his loss, that might make the decision too.
     
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  29. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Is there any chance that the Bills are gambling on a bluff here and have made an offer which they thought was high but not too high that we'd re-sign Clay at a cost? It would have to be at a price they would pay but might not like. Or they see it as a win-win - either they get him (and we lose him) or it hurts our cap?
     
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  30. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Good points, but I still think the overall $$ amount might scare us away. Still, you're right it does depend on what we can do with the money if we don't match.
     
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  31. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    With the contract they're proposing, no (or they have a GM that doesn't gamble well).
     
  32. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Last year - his break out year, he only topped 50 yards in 4 games all year and had 3 TD's total. And 1 of the TD's came in the last game of the season which meant nothing. As for the Bills having to game plan for him and that's why they wanted him, in both games last year he only had 31 yards in each game and no TD's. I just don't get how the Bill's or anyone is justifying paying him 12 million for the next 2 years based on what they saw of him in his breakout year. An asset premium - we should be paying them to line him up against us with those kind of stats.
     
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  33. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    How about if you have a Gronkowski/Hernandez offensive plan in the works?
     
  34. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    Get us Brady and we're good.
     
  35. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Gronk put up almost the same stat line in 7 games with 1 more td in 2013. You don't even need to throw in Hernandez to compare.
     
  36. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Hernandez was never a true tight end when those two were playing together. He was used like a slot receiver.

    Well now that I look at it perhaps that's not correct. Seems like they were both used out in the slot, both used in-line, etc. This is 2011 by the way, the banner year for the Hernandez-Gronk duo.
     
  37. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    I believe we can rely on Cameron and Sims to run 2 TE sets. They're both massive red zone targets and we all know Cameron, when healthy, is more than capable of replacing Clay. If this team is ever going to progress, we need to be able to develop players and get production out of draft picks.

    We've also got way too many needs to dump so much cash into a single position group when it wouldn't guarantee we'd dominate. Brady with Gronk and Hernandez was great. Tannehill with Cameron and Clay wouldn't dominate (at least not as much).

    I think the front office realizes that our passing offense is not great enough to dominate so we'll likely go another route.
     
  38. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    But that's a good point to bring up in its own right. The Patriots really only had ONE banner year of the whole Gronk-Hernandez duo.

    That was 2011 when the two combined for 1,043 routes run with 2,237 yards produced.

    In 2010 when the two were rookies, they produced 1,109 yards on 565 routes. In 2012 they produced 1,273 yards on 641 routes.

    And of course by 2013 the duo was split up due to that pesky murder charge.

    One problem with the idea that the Dolphins could repeat that 2011 albatross is that Jordan Cameron and Charles Clay don't really compare well to Gronk and Hernandez. They don't have the same skill sets. If you look at the ways those two were used and why they were able to be on the field at the same time so much, I don't think it's the same.
     
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  39. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    This article by Tyler Conway cites PFF as listing Clay as 4th among TE in terms of drop rate.
     
  40. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    Don't care if it's an overpay, I still want Clay back. He's a weapon in this offense and it's not my money.
     

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