1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

LA CANFORA: Dolphins Most Ready to Challenge Patriots

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Tannephins, Mar 19, 2015.

  1. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

    1,818
    572
    0
    Dec 23, 2014
    And it wasn't, when the entire season is considered -- for both the Dolphins and those other teams.
     
  2. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

    1,818
    572
    0
    Dec 23, 2014
    cbrad likes this.
  3. FaninPatsyLand

    FaninPatsyLand The Truth

    1,516
    790
    113
    Jun 26, 2008
    It's a pretty asinine conclusion to arrive at in light of the evidence that they were horrific for two solid months. Because, you know, extreme volatility in production is a hallmark of successful units.

    But whatever, continue being obtuse.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  4. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    OK, I'll accept that. They're saying any play that increases the probability of getting a first down is a successful play.

    Good, but that obviously tells us nothing about my original point, which was DVOA and where the "success points" come from. That still, even in light of this new info, looks arbitrary.
     
  5. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

    1,818
    572
    0
    Dec 23, 2014
    This may help (from the same page):
     
  6. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

    1,818
    572
    0
    Dec 23, 2014
    You're divorcing this from the context. We were talking about the relative importance of units on teams in terms of winning (in this case defense and QB).
     
  7. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Yup, read that before I responded. Thing is, there are an infinite number of ways to "add modifiers", so that tells me nothing about exactly what they did.

    Let's try a specific example:

    "A successful play is worth one point; an unsuccessful play, zero points with fractional points in between (e.g., eight yards on third-and-10 is worth 0.54 “success points”)."

    So, how do they get 0.54? If you can find the function that gives 0.54 in that situation, I think we can figure out the rest.
     
  8. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

    1,818
    572
    0
    Dec 23, 2014
    That's the proprietary component. ;)
     
  9. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    HA! Really? You know it's proprietary with certainty? Well, in that case, I wouldn't use it. Only way I would use it is if that 0.54 came from a maximum likelihood calculation where the goal was to maximize predicting win %. Anything less and that's not demonstrably a good (or "objective") stat.

    What ticks me off is that someone writes a "methods" section and doesn't explain the method. None of this should be proprietary given how ubiquitous maximum likelihood is.

    Anyway, the info about that book "The Hidden Game of Football" you gave us with that link and where they got that 4.5 was useful, so I thank you for that, but DVOA you really shouldn't use (from an ethical point of view).
     
  10. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

    8,560
    4,133
    113
    May 9, 2008
    He had the #1 defense and #1 rushing game and what happened? He went to the AFC championship game... Then did it again next year, beating Brady and Manning back to back. Rex can scheme is *** off. Buffalo is going to be a force to be reckoned with. I'm sure you'll come up with an excuse when he gets Buffalo into the playoffs and we're crying about failed season. We should of hired Rex and it's going to cost us. This season and in the future.
     
  11. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,652
    67,546
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    they have a great dline, and who else on defense?
     
  12. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,652
    67,546
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    no kiko..no byrd..?
     
  13. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

    8,560
    4,133
    113
    May 9, 2008
    Didn't have either last year... Seemed just fine w/o them.
     
  14. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    It is nice to read something positive about the Dolphins.

    Hard not to pick the Bills right now though. Even though their quarterback situation is not very good.
     
  15. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

    7,853
    8,088
    113
    Sep 23, 2014
    Quick twitch LBs and DBs. If you wanna beat them you better have a run game, ask Aaron Rodgers. I'm a Phin fan for life but I respect the game and right now Buff has a team better equipped to win games than we do, imo.
     
  16. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

    7,853
    8,088
    113
    Sep 23, 2014
    I gives a damn what national reporters have to say, good or bad. Right now we don't match up well w the other teams in the AFCE, those are the cold hard facts.
     
  17. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

    72,252
    43,684
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    La Canfora is neck and neck with Florio for being the worst pieces of garbage in sports reporting.

    Right or wrong about this story it doesn't change that. Don't read him, don't give him clicks.
     
    SICK likes this.
  18. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

    1,818
    572
    0
    Dec 23, 2014
    Good points. I think there's a very good chance, though, that they're using such methodology, since the concept of "win probability" is huge in the book, and the fact that their team rankings align so well with win percentage from year to year lends credence to it.
     
  19. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

    1,818
    572
    0
    Dec 23, 2014
    That's probably good as a gross measure, but it doesn't incorporate the strength of opposing offenses, and it doesn't control for points and yardage surrendered by other parts of the team (offense and special teams).
     
  20. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

    72,658
    35,312
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    Charlotte NC
    Yup

    [​IMG]
     
  21. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

    27,364
    31,261
    113
    Apr 6, 2008
    I would say it's hard to pick the Bills (or any team) when their QB situation is not very good.
     
    Tannephins likes this.
  22. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

    12,162
    5,057
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    I think with the losses the Patriots had in free agency, the division will be a lot more competitive, but us 3 doormat teams still havent closed the gap.

    patriots will take the division, and the rest of us will be fighting for second place.

    Unless something happens for their defense, i think the Patriots cap off at 11 wins maximum. jets/Bills/dolphins will be around the 7-9 win range
     
  23. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

    1,818
    572
    0
    Dec 23, 2014
    Precisely. The Bills had the best defense in the league last year, in terms of DVOA, and they still finished only 9-7 and missed the playoffs, due to their quarterback situation. That situation hasn't been fixed, and their defense isn't going to get any better than best in the league.
     
  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Yeah, I actually had the opposite impression. Before talking to you about it, the things that stood out were:

    1) They never mentioned a method of validation, i.e. showing their approach maximized something we care about, like win %. Note you can mention this regardless of whether the method is proprietary or not.
    2) They said after a lot of "trial and error".. You don't need "trial and error" to find the optimal parameters - a computer does that. And setting up the problem (the set of possible parameters and their ranges) is pretty easy given what they're estimating (weights on different outcomes from different measurable game conditions). So, "trial and error" suggested to me they manually tried out a bunch of stuff..

    After talking to you, a few more points stood out:

    3) They are keeping the details secret (acceptable only if there is a method of validation, which they don't show)
    4) That 0.54 number itself is suspicious. It's almost exactly the probability of success in making a 1st down GIVEN that you go for it on 4th and 2. If a computer is trying to maximize win %, "success points" for 8 yards on 3rd and 10 is likely to be closer to that 54% multiplied by the probability of going for it on 4th down. This would make that number a lot smaller. So something's fishy there.


    Oh, and as long as the relevant stats in The Hidden Game of Football were chosen to predict win %, replacing their binary measure (successful vs. unsuccessful play) with ANY monotonic and continuous measure (from 0 to 1) should if anything be expected to increase the alignment with win %, even if you just randomly choose such a function. So that's no surprise. The question here is whether this is an "objective" stat, and I think there's no evidence of that yet.
     
    Tannephins likes this.
  25. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

    5,200
    2,975
    113
    Oct 23, 2011
    Sebring, FL
    So you just repeated half of what I said to try and make a point and then disregarded the other half..? I acknowledged how far they got with the number one defense and run game. (Which is technically NO WHERE in the grand scheme of things no one gives a flying **** about losing in the playoffs twice in a row other than jets fans.) and then the defense and the team alike literally went into near-perfect downward regression for the rest of his tenure there. Woo.. back to back losses in the playoffs followed by 4 years of downward spirals!! I don't need an excuse. That is a bet I will take anywhere, anytime. Please just let me know. The almighty rex and his almighty QB position... please.... I hope we do really good under JP this year just so people like you check themself. I'm sure the Defense will be good but unless something drastically changes at QB, buffalo isn't going anywhere anytime soon. "Schemed his *** off" to sub 500. Now he's given borderline one of the best defenses in the league AGAIN... and I'm still not gunna hold my breath.
     
  26. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

    52,652
    25,565
    113
    Nov 13, 2009

    Boo-yaoh!
     
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2015
    CashInFist likes this.
  27. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    As long as Cassel plays well enough to not be a drag, I think they can go far.
     
  28. BicketyBam

    BicketyBam No Fist Pumps Allowed

    4,022
    1,879
    113
    Sep 6, 2010
    New Milford, CT
    How much of the Jets downward spiral was due to Rex and how much was due to the roster of players assembled by Tannenbaum and Idzik?
     
  29. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

    12,162
    5,057
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Hell if they had Orton back I think theyre good enough for 9 wins easily. The talent level on that offense is off the charts.
     
  30. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

    5,200
    2,975
    113
    Oct 23, 2011
    Sebring, FL
    Realistically, how responsible would the HC be for that on ANY team? Fans can blame who they want. He's still sub 500 over 6 years as a HC.
     
  31. BicketyBam

    BicketyBam No Fist Pumps Allowed

    4,022
    1,879
    113
    Sep 6, 2010
    New Milford, CT

    Rex has his faults as a coach, but I do think he is a good one. And I do think he will improve the Bills who were 9-7 last year.
     
  32. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    If they get away with a fake punt against us this year, I'm gonna kill something.
     
    Dol-Fan Dupree likes this.
  33. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

    27,364
    31,261
    113
    Apr 6, 2008
    Historically, a QB that doesn't make plays but doesn't hurt paired with a great defense will end up 8-8 or 9-7. Depending on their division or conference that may result in as high a finish as a first round playoff roster. I don't know if you consider that going far or not.
     
  34. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

    5,200
    2,975
    113
    Oct 23, 2011
    Sebring, FL
    My issue isn't with him being considered a good coach. He is in his own right. My main issue is with the over-glorification of him.Yes, He is a players coach and a solid defensive mind based around aggressiveness and smart scheming ... but has been mediocre to "okay" per his career on paper. The way some people talk about him you would think he is an all time great or something. I disagree.
     
  35. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    I did. I think they have a defense that can be historically good and they have enough weapons on offense to make up for their "Mark Rypien" like quarterback.
     
  36. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

    1,818
    572
    0
    Dec 23, 2014
    But the Dolphins can outdo that with improvement on Tannehill's part this year, coupled with greater efficiency from the receiving corps and improvement of the defense, which the offseason so far has been designed to accomplish. You could very well see the Bills finish 9-7/10-6, and the Dolphins finish 11-5.
     
  37. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    That is possible as well. IMO, Dolphins need more of their young group to step up. If Fede, Taylor, Davis, Turner and Sims step up to a new level, while Vernon, Jenkins, James and Landry continue their improvement, then Miami can be dangerous.
     
    77FinFan likes this.
  38. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

    8,560
    4,133
    113
    May 9, 2008
    Because Tannenbaum put them in cap hell... Which is why he got fired. And the team had to rebuild. Then he got stuck with Idzik, who also got fired for bonehead moves as GM. If you're going to call 8-8 with Geno Smith at QB a "downward" spiral, I don't know what to tell you. That's impressive as ****. Thankfully we have Dawn Apointe to hopefully avoid Tannenbaum's spending habits.

    Rex is not a GM. He's a coach. Give him a roster with talent and he'll get the most out of it. That's how I feel. I think history has shown that opinion has more basis in reality than your opinion of him.
     
  39. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

    72,252
    43,684
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    Rex is a good defensive strategist. He is not a good coach.
     
  40. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

    8,141
    2,103
    113
    Nov 27, 2008
    Atlanta
    We will live and die by the offensive line.

    No question about it!!
     

Share This Page