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Going Backwards on Offense?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Mar 21, 2015.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    A couple of years ago the problem was spelled out that a lack of offensive weapons was hurting Tannehill's production. The focus was to give him new toys so that he could get the job done. Thus Wallace came to town, Gibson too, Keller, and then later Landry. We know that Clay stepped up and Dion Sims too at the end of last year.

    Now, this offseason, almost everything brought in has been jettisoned and we've also lost the home-grown talent of Clay and the familiar guy, Hartline. Just doing that would have almost have reset us back to the position we were in two years ago if not for the fact that Landry is an upgrade over Hartline.

    'No Weapons' 2012 Era____'New Weapons' 2013____'Growth' 2014 Era_______'Reboot' 2015 Offseason
    Hartline_________________Hartline_______________Hartline_______________?
    Bess___________________Wallace________________Wallace_______________Stills
    Matthews_______________Matthews______________Matthews______________Matthews
    Bins___________________Bins___________________Hazel_________________Hazel
    Moore_________________Moore_________________Landry_________________Landry
    ______________________Gibson_________________Gibson________________?

    Clay (FB)______________Clay___________________Clay___________________Cameron
    Egnew________________Egnew_________________Robinson_______________Robinson
    Fasano________________Sims__________________Sims___________________Sims
    Mastrud_______________Keller__________________Lynch__________________Lynch
    Miller

    Looking at this the TE position is more or less the same as 2013 depending upon how you look at it. Sims is the constant and since then we've lost Keller in 2014 to injury, replaced Egnew with Robinson (whose name I don't even remember hearing - who knows whether he'll feature) and I don't know if that's an upgrade/downgrade over Egnew or about the same. And then drafted Lynch, who ended last season on IR, and gained Cameron who everyone agrees is an upgrade over Clay if he can stay on the field. So, if Sims continues to grow and Cameron stays healthy then we've upgraded. If only Cameron or Sims do well then we're about the same as last year. Lynch is a bonus if he does well. However, if Cameron gets injured again and Sims has hit a ceiling or reverts then we've downgraded. It's basically wide open at tight end - as things stand.

    As for wide-receiver, Matthews is the only constant from 2013 with Landry a big positive coming through from last year, and Hazel with him. Stills is the new pick up in place of Wallace. Hartline and Gibson are both gone. So the only player who has been 'replaced' is Wallace, and general consensus seems to be that Stills isn't a talent upgrade, except, perhaps, with better hands. We all know the off-season isn't done and we're still under-manned at that position, however at the moment we've clearly lost all the talent brought in in 2013 but gained some 2014 growth making us essentially slower but with better hands. So, we're looking at replacements for Hartline and Gibson (or Wallace if you see Stills as replacing one of those two). The question for the rest of this off-season will be, how will we replace them, and preferably, upgrade them?

    There aren't many talents in FA left, although we know there are rookie WR's available.

    So - what are your predictions, looking at what's out there, will 2015 prove to be a progression at WR & TE or a regression?

    Who do you bring in to replace Hartline and Gibson? Will we be fine with just rookies, and if so, who becomes the #1? Do we even need a #1 or will see the ball spread around more than ever?

    Will the TE position prove to be even more important this year? If so, will Sims advance? Will Lynch be okay after injury? Will Cameron prove to be the man? Will anyone else be added in at TE? Will it all end in tears?

    Thoughts?
     
    the 23rd likes this.
  2. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    By whom? How do we know they were correct?
     
  3. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Lots of people. Surprised you missed it. Do I really have to go grave digging for articles from 2012 and 2013?

    Were they correct? Who knows. However, the big move in 2013 was to improve the receiving talent so maybe that shows that at least the Dolphins front office thought so...?
     
    Bpk likes this.
  4. Harleydude666

    Harleydude666 Active Member

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    There is no bigger fan of Thill than I am

    However

    If he is what most of us thinks he is or I should say what he should be shortly, than I don't care what receivers and tight ends we give him, he needs to produce even if it means making chicken sh*t into chicken salad. Offensive line is a different story, every QB in this league needs protection. But look at Brady and other good QBs, they make the receivers look good. Thill needs to prove that.

    I understand his first three years on the job he should have been given weapons because he was still learning, and I still want to give him more, but now is the time he takes control and makes it happen regardless
     
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  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Totally agree, especially since the receivers he has now are far from chicken sh**. I still think it's a good idea to draft a WR in this draft; not many drafts will be this rich in WR talent, but it can be in the 2nd or 3rd, if we decide to trade back and get some more ammo.
     
  6. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Stills, Matthews, Hazel and Landry are who we have right now. Then Cameron and Sims and Lynch at TE. You'll be happy with just one extra rookie receiver, even a lower picked one?
     
  7. Harleydude666

    Harleydude666 Active Member

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    Agreed again.
     
  8. finfansince72

    finfansince72 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If the season were starting next week I'd be kinda worried but there is still a lot of offseason left. Its March. Go watch some College Basketball and stop worrying.
     
  9. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    I'm not worrying, I'm simply asking a question. Lots of time left in the off-season is one thing. Lots of FA talent is something else. As for the draft, there are only so many picks (we're already reduced on those too) and every WR picked in the draft is a different position not getting addressed. So one of the questions I asked is what do you do to fill the gaps - who do you bring in? 1x rookie? 2x rookies? A FA - Crabtree or someone else? And will we see that as an upgrade?
     
  10. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah, I would. We already have a possession receiver, a red-zone target, a deep threat, etc.. The guys we have play specific and key roles, so we're not in dire needs at WR/TE. We do need depth and someone that can grow into a starter with our 2nd rounder (if we trade back into the 20's that gives us an extra 2nd btw). I'm hoping someone like DGB or Strong etc.. will last that far (you never know.. the mock drafts have them going in all kinds of places). If not, there's still good talent on the board.
     
    the 23rd likes this.
  11. Harleydude666

    Harleydude666 Active Member

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    Who's worried??? It's offseason banter. It's free agency and draft time. Should I come back in September? :headscratch:
     
  12. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    Brazil

    Not so sure about the bolded part...
    Here are the 40 times of each of our WRs and TEs in 2014. I didn't include Matt Hazel because he barely played.

    Wallace: 4.33
    Hartline: 4.58
    Landry: 4.77
    Gibson: 4.59
    Matthews: 4.62

    Clay: 4.73
    Sims: 4.75


    Average: 4.62


    Here are the 40 times of our WRs and TEs for the 2015 season. I'm including Hazel because it's likely he'll actually get more playing time this season.

    Stills: 4.38
    Matthews: 4.62
    Landry: 4.77
    Hazel: 4.50

    Cameron: 4.59
    Sims: 4.75

    Average: 4.60

    So, as of right now, we actually have gotten a little faster from last season to this season.

    Obviously, we still have to add 1 or 2 more WRs to the roster, but it's likely that whoever is added runs less than a 4.60.

    Here's a list of the possible WRs we might add either through FA or the draft:

    Michael Crabtree: 4.55 (thought it's probably higher than that nowadays, if you account for the injury)
    Jaelen Strong: 4.44
    DeVante Parker: 4.45
    Amari Cooper: 4.42
    Nelson Agholor: 4.42

    So, it's quite possible we get an average 40 time of even less than 4.60, which would make us significantly faster than last season, despite the loss of Mike Wallace.
     
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  13. ripper1961

    ripper1961 Active Member

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    I actually feel pretty positive about our wr position this year. Could get better if we get Crabtree at a bargain price,even though I'm not a huge fan of his.If Landry progresses and Stills goes after a few, unlike Wallace, we might be really good at the position.
     
  14. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    At this point I'm more concerned with our running game than our passing game. I'm not sure that any of what we saw the team do in the passing game last season can't be replicated by the roster we currently have. 4,000 yards passing with 27 TDs is pretty standard for any offense that is led by a franchise QB.

    If you're asking me whether or not we need to add talent in order to help get over the next hurdle, I say yes. Tannehill has had 3 years in Miami to learn the QB position and I don't think he's had more than 3-4 games in that stretch in which he was really hot. He's just not going to get the team to the Play-offs by himself the way Luck has done for the Colts.

    At this point, I think we should build around a better running game. We need to limit Lamar Miller to 15 carries a game and get a bigger, tougher RB that can shoulder the load. I think Knowshon Moreno actually would've been the best damn thing to happen to this team in a long time had he stayed healthy.

    Tannehill is not Tony Romo. He's not Aaron Rodgers. He's not a guy you can hand the ball to and say, 'go get us a win!' He's not going to operate on those levels as a passer in my opinion. The Dolphins probably won't be a high-powered passing attack with Tannehill at QB, but they could damn sure make the Play-offs and win in January if they had a better, more physical running game.

    I really think that's going to determine this team's future.
     
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  15. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Other than making sure T-Hill has adequate protection (at least one good guard.. here's hoping Turner already is the one), I think all the other areas we could improve on (RB, LB, FS, WR, etc..) are not essential, but would clearly help. In that sense, FA has made the draft easier because you can go BPA.

    I still want Wisniewski so that we can really go BPA at one of 4-5 positions; makes it much easier to hit in the draft.
     
  16. normaldude

    normaldude Active Member

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    Nope. We're finally on track to have a top 5 offense, simply because it looks like we finally have a front office that understands that we need pieces that FIT.

    Ryan Tannehill is a limited QB. He's good at throwing low trajectory direct laser beams. But he's weak at high-arcing an accurate deep ball that allows a speedster to accelerate through the ball. In fact, in the 2 years together, Tannehill + Wallace NEVER successfully connected on the deep ball in stride. They were a terrible fit for each other (1).

    In order for Tannehill to consistently threaten deep, he needs strong catch radius receivers who are good at ripping low trajectory contested throws out of the air, while facing the QB. A young Larry Fitzgerald is the ideal match for Tannehill.

    Guys like Kenny Stills, Crabtree / Kevin White, Jarvis Landry, Jordan Cameron are catch radius receivers that will give Tannehill big round bullseye targets to shoot at.

    Guys like Mike Wallace & Charles Clay are great athletes, but have greater value when paired with QBs who are great at high arcing deep balls. And after suffering season-ending knee injuries, Brian Hartline & Brandon Gibson are now just slow guys who can't make sharp cuts, who just move in a straight line, and then fall down.

    If we get Crabtree (2) or Kevin White, and if we trade Dion Jordan for OG Evan Mathis (3), then we'll finally have pieces that fit, and barring injury, I'll predict that we'll finally have a top 5 offense.

    Footnotes:

    --------------

    (1) Throws of 20+ Yards, Last 2 Seasons

    Mike Wallace
    - Targets: 54
    - Receptions: 12
    - Completion%: 22.2%
    - Yards: 460
    - TD: 2

    Kenny Stills
    - Targets: 30
    - Receptions: 15
    - Completion%: 50%
    - Yards: 710*
    - TD: 7

    *47.3 Yds per Rec (leads all NFL WRs)

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/12477833/mike-wallace-traded-minnesota-vikings-miami-dolphins

    --------------

    (2) Post-injury Crabtree is an upgrade over post-injury Brian Hartline. See my comments on this thread..

    http://www.thephins.com/forums/show...(-3-5-4-million-a-year)&p=2565581#post2565581

    --------------

    (3) OG Evan Mathis is the top ZBS guard in the NFL, and coming from a similar offense (Eagles, where OC Bill Lazor is from). He would be an instant fit.

    http://miami.cbslocal.com/2015/03/12/report-dolphins-working-on-trade-for-pro-bowler-evan-mathis/
     
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  17. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Unless we draft a WR high, Hartline's replacement is probably Matthews, which is most likely an upgrade, since Hartline was one of the worst #1/#2 WRs in the league.
     
  18. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    The Pats just won the Super Bowl playing the sort of game Tannehill can play very well, and with only about an average running game. The Dolphins' running game by contrast was among the best in the league. A running game doesn't need to be "physical" to be successful.
     
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  19. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    This cannot be stressed enough....

    [table="width: 500"]
    [TR="bgcolor: #009ca5"]
    [td]PLAYER[/td]
    [td]COMP[/td]
    [td]ATT[/td]
    [td]PCT[/td]
    [td]YDS[/td]
    [td]YDS/A[/td]
    [td]LONG[/td]
    [td]TD[/td]
    [td]INT[/td]
    [td]SACK[/td]
    [td]RATE[/td]
    [td]YDS/G[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]
    Brady​
    [/td]
    [td]373[/td]
    [td]582[/td]
    [td]64.1[/td]
    [td]4109[/td]
    [td]7.06[/td]
    [td]69[/td]
    [td]33[/td]
    [td]9[/td]
    [td]21[/td]
    [td]97.4[/td]
    [td]257[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]
    Tannehill​
    [/td]
    [td]392[/td]
    [td]590[/td]
    [td]66.4[/td]
    [td]4045[/td]
    [td]6.86[/td]
    [td]50[/td]
    [td]27[/td]
    [td]12[/td]
    [td]46[/td]
    [td]92.8[/td]
    [td]253[/td]
    [/tr]
    [/table]

    The biggest discrepancy is sacks. You gotta wonder why there's still questions about Tannehill when he plays like Brady.
     
  20. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Pats won the Super Bowl with the sort of game Tannehill can play very well, with an average running game, AND with the worst play call ever by an opposing HC coach in the Super Bowl. :wink2:
     
  21. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Really you could make the argument that he's been "making it happen" already anyway, because there isn't any evidence that the improvement he's shown is attributable to anyone but him.
     
    resnor likes this.
  22. Harleydude666

    Harleydude666 Active Member

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    Oh, I do think he's making it happen. What I meant is on a playoff winning level, or at least making it to the playoffs level. I think it's incredible what he's done so far with the Swiss cheese Oline
     
  23. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    Offensive line help is paramount. Too many shades of grey to predict offensive production based on WR speed. Like, we don't run up scores, and playing catchup, etc.

    Fan perception is moment to moment all Too often. Sometimes it just takes the head coach that extra year to get over the hump. Let's hope retaining Philbin works out.
     
  24. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    My one concern is that we don't have viable options at perimeter WR. We have guys who have proven very capable in the slot, but when it comes to having those targets on the boundary, I'm not so sure. Hopefully Cameron stays healthy where we can split him out with some consistency, but even then it's not ideal. Landry (and probably Matthews) say they want to move outside, but matching them up with hi-level boundary corners every snap will likely lead to a drop in efficiency. The one plus here is that Tannehill has never really been great throwing to outside targets anyway. Going back to college he has always thrived with slot/short/intermediate stuff, which is what we have at the moment.

    Signing Crabtree would give us at least SOMEone we could feel okay about having outside. He at least has a track record of moderate success there. And his game is a lot like Hartline's: works the sidelines really well, makes plays in traffic and tight coverage, comes back to the ball really well, excels at intermediate levels of the field. Signing Crabtree would also mean we aren't full-on desperate to draft an outside WR next month.
     
  25. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Last year we had no problem in getting down the field. If I remember rightly we lead the league in trips to the end-zone. Our problem was converting those trips into touchdowns. Problems on third down conversion too.

    In some ways we might ask how the wide receivers were failing. I think that apart from issues with some of the contracts most of us were happy with last year's set and just wanted to see a solution brought in for those end-zone and 3rd down issues - a big tight end prospect etc.

    The truth is that with so much change we're really not going to know, now, what we've got until we see it. Whether it was T17, the receivers or Lazor, I hope that we get that same downfield production this year but with a greater ability and aggression to earn touchdowns or move the chains.
     
  26. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I'm willing to bet we don't have those same problems as last year (at least not to the same extent) because of Jordan Cameron. He's exactly the type of weapon Tannehill needs in the red-zone, and obviously a great help on 3rd downs.
     
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  27. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I can already picture Tanny throwing him the fade in the corner of the end zone.
     
  28. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    I just hope the reverse isn't true and that we end up without the results we did achieve.
     
  29. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I just hope he remains healthy, because without him our receiver situation looks a lot worse.
     
  30. 54Fins

    54Fins "In Gase we trust"

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    over there
    Someone sounds like Omar...I ain't no rat, though.

    Please...explain to me how we are going backwards when I heard the same garb last year?
    I misplaced my tarot cards, forgive me.
     
  31. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    If you're referring to me, I'm not saying we're going backwards, I'm asking whether we might be.
    Generally I'm not much of a fan of Omar.

    As for how we might be going backwards I would have hoped my OP made that point. In summary, we've gotten rid of the WR 'talent' we brought in for 2013 in order to give T17 the weapons he supposedly needed. We were left with Landry, Matthews and Hazel. We also lost Clay which left us with Lynch and Sims at TE. Since then we've brought it Stills at WR and Cameron at TE. So at present we're have two receivers less than we did last year and they're all young and/or numbers 3/4/5. We've lost experience. At TE we might have improved we'll have to see how Sims does and if Cameron can stay healthy. We could be in a dire situation if a few key pieces get injured since, at present, we're looking to run on what was our depth from last year. We have really added key pieces so far this year at WR/TE, it's more like we've swapped them out. We really aren't going to be sure what we've got until we see them in action.
     
  32. bran

    bran Senior Member

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    not sure how we went backwards, we are pretty much the same or slightly improved(with a healthy jordan) not to mention all our guys have another year in the system.
     
  33. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    We lost three experienced receivers and replaced them with one two-year receiver. So we're still down two receivers. The other two receivers we do have haven't been anything close to starters.
     
  34. normaldude

    normaldude Active Member

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    Two of those receivers are broken and finished. And the other was a terrible fit for Tannehill's skillset.
     
  35. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Perhaps, but a loss is a loss and losing those guys doesn't mean we automatically get better, the key question is where we go from here.
     
  36. DevilFin13

    DevilFin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The change in receivers is probably mostly a wash, if not a slight improvement. So I wouldn't worry about that. My big worry is the interior of the offensive line. Tannehill or most QBs can only take 50 sacks a year for so long without getting hurt. And Tannehill's year to year improvement has been more about him than his receivers. So as long as he keeps improving I'm sure the offense as a whole will as well.
     
  37. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    I think the free-agency has been brilliantly executed & can't wait to see what is gleaned in the draft. it all looks good to me so far...
     
  38. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    no, but I'm fascinated as to what made you choose an avatar like that...you don't have to share just curious.
     
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  39. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    he can also extent with that 6'5 length an simply get serious vert...were talking white man can jump sh&^
     
  40. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    Getting the feeling we'll round out the offense with a focus on OL or RB at #14 in the draft.
     

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