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How good is Kenny Stills?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by keithjackson, Mar 25, 2015.

  1. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Brees rating since Tanny's been in the league has been 96.3, 104 and 97. Brees has around 100 rating to EVERYONE he throws to essentially.

    I like how in one breath you say you bet Wallace doesn't do better with Bridgewater (because it's Wallace's fault) but in the very next breath saying INT's shouldn't be attributed to the WR.

    EDIT: Hey what happened to your post it was just here.
     
  2. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Conversely, you'll hear nothing when RT hits Stills...from that crowd.
     
    Undisputed likes this.
  3. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I've got Ryan Tannehill in one league, and Teddy B in another league. I'll cheer for both!
     
  4. M1NDCRlME

    M1NDCRlME Fear The Spear

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    I won my league with tannehill last season! I thank him for the $1000 payday
     
  5. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    You're an angry man.
     
  6. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Much better value than Wallace provides.
     
  7. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    These measures people are proposing to evaluate these performances next season are off-base. CK talked about yards per route run earlier in the thread, and I talked about EPA per play. Those are the far better measures than yards and touchdowns, and QB rating when throwing to a receiver may be even worse.
     
  8. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    What EPA?
     
  9. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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  10. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    oh? 700 and 4 is > 900-1k and 7-10? this is news.
     
  11. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    When you consider how much the receiver in either case is paid, and by extension, how much he prevents the team from having talent elsewhere on its roster, the former numbers are more valuable than the latter. For the sake of argument, certainly you wouldn't say it was worth it to pay a receiver 95% of a team's salary cap if he were producing 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns?
     
  12. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    This just keeps getting better.

    WR A draws the opposing teams best CB and safety help for most of the day, forcing the QB to utilize receivers B, C, D, who benefit from facing lesser players and having more space to work. But according to one of the dumbest stats ever invented, WR A is considered inferior bc his yards per route run is lower.

    Wake forces teams to chip, slide protections and/or double him, he may not generate much pressure but he's freeing other rushers to make plays.

    At some point common sense should enter the discussion. The idea is to WIN games, players are judged by how much they contribute to the success of the team. In most cases stats aren't up to challenge of telling the whole story.
     
    jim1 likes this.
  13. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Given that the EP graphs are essentially linear relations, and that the slopes for EP for 1st, 2nd and 3rd downs are nearly identical, that suggests yards is a fairly good substitute for EPA.
     
  14. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Totally agree about the basic football knowledge. I think what would settle the debate is if someone actually measured the space available to a receiver at the time of the catch (or # of defenders within a certain distance of the receiver). Since no one has done that, I'm not sure you'll convince Tannephins or vice versa.

    I personally agree that Wallace and Stills were in different situations for the reasons you describe, but I don't know how to estimate its influence on the stats, so those in the "objective" camp do have a leg to stand on because of that.
     
  15. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    True, for EPA, since there is an 0.84 correlation between EPA and yards among receivers in 2014, but not true for EPA per play, since there is a mere 0.37 correlation with yards. Again, with EPA per play, we're incorporating an "efficiency" factor that isn't there with yards or EPA, and again Stills led the league in EPA per play in both 2013 and 2014, while Wallace was much, much poorer in that area. Wallace had to be force-fed the ball to produce at a much lower level than Stills in that area.
     
  16. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well.. that just means you look at yards per play. If the number of plays is fixed, the correlation should still be 0.84. The good thing about talking in terms of yards or yards per play is that it's more intuitive, so if that correlates well with a more principled measure, it's worth using it.
     
  17. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    For some reason you just can't grasp a fundamental issue and variable: where would Wallace's EPA rating have been last year if Tannehill threw more competent deep balls to him while he was facing the opposing defense's best CB, often drawing double coverage, keeping an extra man out of the box and smoking coverage to get open deep? The change would have been significant- no one is saying that Wallace wasn't flawed (small catch radius, not attacking and extending for balls as he more often should have been, being a pain in the butt) but geez, you can at least give him that. Run 5 more TDs and 400 yards back into the numbers and see what you get, best guess. Yet another thread has been Shourighted.
     
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  18. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. I'm stoked about seeing what Stills can do in Miami, he's a better route runner with more short area quickness than Wallace. I just hope people aren't assuming he'll come to the Dolphins and light it up right away, regardless of what it says on the stat sheet. Football isn't played on paper, some people can't seem to grasp that.
     
  19. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    The problem with your analogy is that Wake generates by far the most pressure on the Miami Dolphins. In fact, he is one of the best in the league at generating pressures.
     
  20. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    And that's what I meant about yards per pass route run, which CK mentioned earlier. The DVOA folks also use a "defense-adjusted yards above replacement" (DYAR) measure that incorporates what the opposing defense normally surrenders.
     
  21. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Neither you nor I know with any certainty.
     
  22. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    700 and 4 for 500K > 800 - 950 and 5-10 for $12 million.

    Edit: Wallace hasn't had a thousand yard season in Miami.
     
  23. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    True.

    The point is that is that players often do things to help their team that don't necessarily show up on the stat sheet.
     
  24. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I agree with your point.

    However I disagree with having certainty that Still's efficiency will go down significantly.

    It is possible, however he might be the next Antonio Brown who has gone crazy since he was put into the #1 position.
     
  25. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Why cant we ever have nice things like that????

    The last offensive stud we've drafted, that you can say belongs in every one's top 10 list? Dan Marino. That freaking stinks.

    Last defensive stud we've drafted? Jason Taylor? That's ridiculous too. We have not drafted an offensive or defensive stud since the 80's and 90s? Wake is our closest but he was an FA from Canada. It's ridiculous.
     
  26. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    he could though. i mean stills hasn't had a 1k yard season either. but according to tannephin he'll have 2k yards and 20 tds next year bc he'll get more targets.
     
  27. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Tannephins never said that. Tannephins numbers might be on the high side, but they are not out of the realm of possibility.

    Stills hasn't had over 140 targets in a season. We might find out what happens when he does. I do doubt that, since he isn't super expensive, there is no justification for trying to force him the ball like there was for Wallace
     
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  28. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    And the numbers I mentioned were simply the projection of what he would've done at his rate of production in New Orleans, had he been targeted the number of times Wallace was in 2014, not a projection of what he's going to do in Miami.

    Excellent point.
     
  29. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    that's good, as long as you know he'll have worse stats in miami than he did in NO and aren't expecting 1k and 6tds from the guy.
     
  30. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    I don't know that, and neither do you.
     
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  31. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Right, but absent some sort of attempt at an objective analysis, nobody here knows with any certainty when that is and is not happening, and if it is happening, how much it's helping, exactly.

    We also don't know when the exact opposite of that is true, that when a player's existence on a team is thought to help in theory, but really hurts in practice.

    For example, Mike Wallace's downfield speed alone could be thought to "open things up" for other players on the offense, but it's entirely possible that he's ill-suited to a west coast offense to such a degree that force-feeding him passes in one negatively outweighs whatever benefit is derived from his speed.
     
  32. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Ronnie Brown would be considered a stud if he had multiple full seasons like the one he had in 2007 for sure.

    Chambers is one of my all time fave WRs. I became an expert at drop stats criteria because of him lol
     
  33. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    When was the ball ever forced to Mike Wallace? Vs what team(s)?
     
  34. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    That would be a dream come true.
     
  35. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    I know that Stills will be playing tougher defenses than the nfc south, i know that he won't have as good of a QB throwing to him and i know that he'll be seeing better CB's...

    All good indicators that he'll have a worse season than his NO seasons. He is a year older and "more experienced" which can make up for some of it. But to expect some huge gain or magic outbreak of 1500 yards and 6tds is insane.
     
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  36. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. But do you need stats to tell you how good those guys are? For me, stats help to confirm what I see on the field. If they had the worst YPRR numbers in the league I'd still call them the top wideouts.
     
  37. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    Good post.

    I caution anyone who's expecting anything like what happened in Nawlins. As of now he's the first or 2nd option not the 3rd or 4th. IF the run game is clicking behind Miller and another good back the pass game will be as efficient as it's ever been, no worries there. If the O is again forced to lean heavily on the pass it's an entirely different story.
     
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  38. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    there is no collective data imo that can prove anything when you have two qbs this different and playing at the level they play at..

    its useless until we see it with our own eyes..
     
  39. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    ...or until we simply measure it statistically at that point.
     
  40. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    sure once you have data with tannehill and stills then conclusions can be made statistically and blame can be assessed, until then you have drew brees playing qb vrs ryan tannehill and trying to make statistical comparisons with each of their receivers..doesnt make any sense to me..
     
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