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Free Agency: The Value of Suh

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by jim1, Mar 29, 2015.

  1. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    The date was Thursday, November 28th, 2013. As is tradition, the Detroit Lions were playing at home on Thanksgiving, this time against the Green Bay Packers. It was late in the third quarter with the Lions up 24-10, Matt Flynn and the Packers faced a 2nd-and-13 from their own 2-yard line.

    Within three seconds of the ball being snapped, Ndamukong Suh had used his freakish combination of strength and speed to beat both Packers center T.J. Lang, and right guard Marshall Newhouse to sack Flynn in the end zone for a safety. Suh earned a top mark for this play and ended the game with a +7.7 overall grade. The Lions won the game 40-10.

    But exactly how much of this dominance Suh showed on Thanksgiving in 2013 can Miami expect to see benefit their own team? To give some more insight here, we need to begin to compare this type of number to Suh’s peers to add context, so we’re going to take a look at a few sets of data. Firstly, we’ll dissect Suh’s usage as player. Then we’ll look at a detailed breakdown of how interior defensive linemen have been graded over the past two seasons. Finally we’ll take a brief look at frequency of play and how Suh stacks up against other interior linemen.

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/03/27/free-agency-the-value-of-suh/
     
  2. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't think any player is ever going to "maximize" their value to the point that they are worth $100M relative to their peers who are all making less. Is Robert Kraft more valuable to the Patriots than Belichick or Brady? I'm sure he makes more money though. You can crunch numbers all day long, the bottom line is that Miami paid Suh for the production he accomplished in Detroit and the chance to have him in Miami over the next 6 years and to build around him. They offered him that much so other teams would drop out of the race. Clearly, Miami overpaid...they knew they were over-paying. That was their whole game-plan from the beginning.

    That number doesn't just represent production, it represents the value of a specific commodity (or more aptly the desire of one entity to buy it) at a specific time, during a specific off-season, for a specific team.

    I agree with the article though that while Suh is near the top in almost any category for a defensive player, you're really never going to find enough stats to justify paying anyone in the 2015 NFL game $100M based on "value" alone.

    However, value can transcend the numbers when you accept that fact that teams would happily over-pay their players in order to make the Play-offs or to win a Super Bowl. When you win games, all the player salaries don't seem so big because to the owner, they really aren't.
     
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  3. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    I'm ok if we paid a little more than we should have for a great player. Wheeler and Ellerbe were scheduled to make almost as much combined, then throw in Hartline's scheduled $7.5 mil salary- value is relative. Relative to what we had on the books prior to the roster purge and the Suh signing, it's a great move. We exchanged two crappy Linebackers and one overpaid and rather expendable WR for a defensive stalwart and a tone setter. That's a home run.
     
  4. sandcastle

    sandcastle Active Member

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    IMO, the value of Suh will be seen in the special packages. Last year, the defense had success with 5 DL and 3 safety formations. Both essentially remove a run-stopping LB and replace with a defender that can bring more pressure to pass rush or coverage. By Suh's slowing any up the middle running attack, it will allow the 5 DL to play wider or the safeties to play more aggressively.

    In past seasons with the base defense, Coyle liked to fake a double A gap blitz with his LBers while having a DB blitz from the slot. Suh's presence will make an inside LB blitz more effective, while the other peels off toward a QB's hot read.

    Overall, he'll make other defenders more effective as they play toward their strengths. In other words, no more of Wake dropping into coverage. Instead, hopefully nearly all of his snaps will be focused on bringing some type of pressure. And players with coverage skills (D Jordan) or ball skills (O Vernon and T Fede) will be used in schemes that are intended to confuse the offense.
     
  5. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    N Suh is a dolphin....I still can't believe it...bravo front office..
     
  6. Sumlit

    Sumlit Well-Known Member

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    The value of Suh is in the absolute terror he instills on Tom Brady.

    You already saw Brady so afraid he tried to take his own life by jumping off a cliff. He miscalculated and landed on water, but his terror is real. Suh gon break him Bane on Batman style.
     
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  7. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I've never really agreed with the whole "he's overpaid" argument. If it was my money I may feel differently, but it's not. Yes, due to the salary cap teams must be able to pay all of their players. However, if you'd like to get specific, ALL pro athletes deserve what the market reflects and none can be overpaid.

    IMO, teachers should be making millions. If they did this country would have a far less drop out rate and a far superior education system. The market dictates their salaries so they don't. Why? Because millions and millions of people can earn their teaching degree and teach. Only a handful of people can play NFL football. That's why diamonds are worth more than tanzanite.

    So, my point is, there is really no way to deem a player "overpaid" if there are no other players (or very few) like him. I argue that no other player is like Suh, or really even close.
     
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  8. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I don't understand your argument. I think you can claim a player is overpaid only if he is getting more but producing less than someone else at the same/similar position. In Suh's case, he's not overpaid relative to other DT's, but you could argue (and I would argue) he's overpaid relative to J.J. Watt.

    But beyond making such a direct comparison, how do you argue a player is overpaid relative to his peers? You'd have to have a way of determining player value other than through the market. The only problem with the "market" argument is that not all players are on the market at the same time, but that problem is taken care of by my argument in the 1st paragraph.

    Of course, if you're arguing from a social standpoint, I think that all NFL players and coaches are overpaid. I'm sure you'd get the same players (and same quality) in the NFL if you cut the top salaries by 90% and the bottom by 50% (and the rest in-between). That is, you're paying way more than necessary to get the product on the field.
     
  9. P h i N s A N i T y

    P h i N s A N i T y My Porpoise in Life

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    Its a lot of money..... but that is the scale to work from. To sign/retain an elite player, it will cost you that much in this era. Giving a very good player like Mike Wallace an elite contract was overpaying. Suh is unquestionably the best at his position..... one of the best ever. Its only fair he's received a historic contract.

    The only reason he became available is because after drafting top 3 for so many years.... Detroit just couldnt keep all the elite players, and chose to retain(pay) the QB and Wr in hopes of outscoring the Packers. They couldnt even keep Fairley. They were sooo close last year, and it wasn't exactly because of their passing game.

    We are lucky to be the ones taking advantage of their blunder. I would have traded Calvin if it meant keeping Suh. Their defense is going to suffer greatly. Ours? Just became a force to be reckoned with. The Value of Suh is..... Epic.
     
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  10. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    It's an entertainment business...like music, acting, etc. They ALL make crazy money, 'cuz we pay 'em for it. That simple. If we (the public en masse) turned away from the NFL, they wouldn't make that money. I'm kinda glad WE payed for Suh :)
     
  11. Onehondo

    Onehondo Senior Member Club Member

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    You can debate over-paying and maybe that is true but you can't debate the fact that Suh was the best and biggest impact player in free agency. Miami needed to make a statement move in free agency and Suh fit that bill. When Dion Jordan was drafted 3rd overall in the 2013 draft, he was drafted to be an impact player but so far that hasn't worked out. Considering that Miami gave up a 1st round and a 2nd round choice to get him that made it especially so. I admire the Dolphins for having the courage to firmly decide and to make the move to get Suh, because I am sure there are many of the teams in the NFL who would have liked to have Suh on their defensive line. I am glad and thankful that Suh is a Miami Dolphin and I am sure the rest of the Dolphins defense feels the same.
     
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  12. VanDolPhan

    VanDolPhan Club member Club Member

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    All you have to do is watch the game against us. He just flat out destroyed our line. Anytime a team risk sending a weak guard against us.....Suh is going to not just win..he's going to terrorize.
     
  13. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    It's funny. Change Suh to Mike Wallace and you have the same exact posts from 2 years ago. "yeah we overpaid but look what he can do for our offense". "Signing Wallace is going to open space for Hartline to finally be a stud..." yada yada yada. Where is Mike Wallace now? What happened to all that good stuff he was supposed to bring along? All the fancy things can be said, until he actually plays in our system with our players we won't know squat.
     
  14. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    The difference with Mike Wallace is that the very year prior (2012), he had the same problems in the same kind of system (a timing-based pass offense). Suh on the other hand has excelled in a system similar to Miami's.
     
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  15. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Never said that myself and wasn't too enthused about Wallace from the jump...Suh is another story altogether.

    Edit: But it's natural for a fan to be optimistic about a new signing, otherwise why be a fan of the team instead of a fan of some individual players?
     
  16. Disgustipate

    Disgustipate Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    There absolutely should be a degree of wariness about big money free agency, but they're not really comparable. Suh isn't a guy who is going to run into scheme fit issues, and he's a way better player than Wallace was even in the most fevered imaginations.
     
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  17. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    being a dolphins fan..... much more wait and see then be happy. that's what you learn being a dolphin fan.

    i don't want anyone to fail but i've just seen it too much with this franchise that players come here that are supposed to help and it doesn't pan out for whatever reasons.
    i get that suh is really good but, it's the dolphins so...
     
  18. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Forget about the money for now. He got what the market bares. Now, whether he has dominant players around him, he has Wake(remember him?) and Vernon on the same line. That has potential to be a scary dominant force. Teams will have to keep extra guys in to help block. Remember when our D would get gashed by the run at the most inopportune times? Suh is dominant against the run. We didn't even have to give up picks to get him. The value could be amazing.
     
  19. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    Hopefully you can read this rather long and detailed article about Wallace's struggles in 2012 and then get a grip when it comes to the RIDICULOUS number of times that you refer to that specific year as evidence that Wallace's lower than expected numbers last year were almost exclusively a result of him not being able to adapt to a timing based passing offense.

    Part of the lack of Wallace's production in Pitt 2012's and Miami last year's was his fault, part was not, including the fact that his QB missed 3 1/2 games in 2012, he was out of training camp in a contract holdout and during the course of the year Big Ben apparently began to favor Antonio Brown.

    Regardless of all of this, Wallace was frequently open deep for big plays last year and Tannehill flat out missed him, it is what is is. If those plays were successful then Wallace's stats would have risen dramatically and you would have had nothing to talk about, no point to make. I've never come across anybody who thought that Wallace was blameless in 2012 or 2014, he certainly has his flaws, but try to read the article and see for yourself that there were several factors as to why Wallace had subpar numbers in 2012 regardless of the degree to which he was able to adapt to a timing offense, and as such trying to pin all of the struggles last year on Wallace as per the RT/Wallace connection simply does not hold water. Wallace was frequently open deep last year, Tannehill flat out missed him numerous times when he was WIDE OPEN. Is there a stat for QB efficiency on deep balls when his WR is wide open?

    To be fair about it, I think that your theory is partially correct- partially. The problem is, partial correctness is a far cry from what it should take to CONSTANTLY prop up your theory as to why Wallace was to blame for his lack of stats and deep ball effciency last year. Anyway, here's the article, as I mentioned some will support what your theory holds to be true, but imo not nearly enough:

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ing-and-what-it-means-for-steelers-wr-in-2013
     
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  20. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    The question is could that 19 million per season have been better spent on other players?
     
  21. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    Certainly better than the $24 million or so that Wheeler/Ellerbee/Hartline would have gotten, I'll take that trade any day.
     
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  22. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Yes. That statistic is the percentage of catchable downfield balls the QB threw to the receiver. Tannehill's percentage to Wallace in 2014 was higher than Roethlisberger's was to Wallace in 2012.
     
  23. 305

    305 Brawndo Club Member

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    Get off my lawn.
    Just played Madden with Suh next to Wake....... I might need to see a doctor if it hasn't gone away in 4 hours.
     
  24. LBsFinest

    LBsFinest Banned

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    Can we get him some help up front? We need another DT.
     
  25. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    Is catchable the same as wide open? No, it isn't. Wallace was wide open deep so often with Tannehill then missing him that it became a rather frequent topic of conversation in the local media, and among Dolphins fans in general. When a pure deep threat gets open and the QB can't connect with a quality throw, what happens? The WR's numbers suffer, among other things. Wallace was a pain in the rear and wasn't aggressive enough to go up and get the ball, ie catch radius, but you can't lay everything on his inability to adapt to a timing passing offense and base an entire thesis on that. Not even close.
     
  26. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    I'm still thinking Eddie Goldman at #14 or maybe even better Carl Davis ion the 2nd round.
     
  27. LBsFinest

    LBsFinest Banned

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    I love Goldman, will be interesting to see where he goes, I've seen him projected all over the place, top 10, bottom 5, even 2nd round. Carl Davis in the 2nd would be great value, but so would Byron Jones there too. Would be great if we could grab another 2nd rounder.
     
  28. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    And what do you know of how that differed, if at all, from Pittsburgh in 2012, when Roethlisberger threw him an even smaller percentage of catchable passes downfield? Was he less fully open deep that year, or do you know?
     
  29. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    No I learned to be a TRUE fan...not fair-weather...see below.
     
  30. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    What I do know is that Tannehill was frequently unable to connect deep with a wide open Wallace last year. As to your questions, not having watched the Pittsburgh games in 2012 I do not know, and I'm pretty sure that your knowledge of what happened that year above and beyond what you can read from a stat sheet is approaching zero, as per usual. The rather long and detailed article posted above mentions Batch misfires from the critical time period of 3.5 games that Ben out due to injury. The person to ask would probably be a Pittsburgh fan who actually watched the games, not a Dolphins fan and certainly not a stat monkey. You're the one trying to repeadedly incorporate Pittsburgh 2012 offensive data into an argument, not me. Shouldn't you be the one who has the answers to those questions?
     
  31. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    Sure, but Suh wasn't the only option for using those savings.

    Maclin and McCourty.

    Knighton, Odrick, Franklin.

    Clay, Cromartie, Ingram.

    There were a lot of diff ways to go.
     
  32. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Actually I'm quite comfortable saying that neither you nor I know that, and that my conclusion about Wallace's ineptitude in a timing-based offense is simply my own interpretation of the relevant data, and therefore my own opinion only. I don't know everything. :)
     
  33. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    Of the three only the second one gives me pause to consider, and even then I'll go with Suh. I like Knighton as a run stuffer and Franklin would be good at Guard, but although I liked Odrick he was always to much of a DT/DE tweener. That would have been a pretty darend good trio, but I'd go with Suh.
     
  34. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    I'm curious as to how you come up w the term "relevant data". Sure seems to me that your opinions on relevance are no less subjective than the opinions of those who use film to form their opinions.

    And relax. No one will ever accuse you of knowing everything ;).
     
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  35. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    I agree for the most part, and there are countless other ways to have gone about free agency I just named a few off the cuff. My main concern with Suh is the all eggs in one basket axiom. Suh was a great get but I'm nervous about investing that much into any non QB.
     
  36. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    The value of Suh is hard to tell until we see what impact he has on OUR defense and if he can help us get our offense on the field more often.

    Free agents rarely pan out for several reasons but you've gotta assume that our defensive line is going to carry this team.

    I'd worry more about whether or not we can continue to draft well or begin coaching well. We need several more pieces before we can be dominant in defense, offense, or special teams.
     
  37. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    The track record and ability to stay healthy speak volumes imo. This is like a post modern aquisition of Mean Joe Greene imo, Suh will dominate the LOS and set the tone for a physical defense, set loose Wake and Vernon like a pack of dogs, maybe Fede, Shelby and Jordan will get in on the act.
     
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  38. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    I see the offensive line benefiting indirectly from Suh. He's got the most powerful punch I'm the game. Lining up against that can only make them better.
     
  39. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    there is a large place between fair weather fan and fanatic......

    fair weather fan is only around when they are good, fanatic is like skip bayless blindly yelling moronic sentences bc it's his belief and only he is correct.
     

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