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Dan Marino best QB ever arguement...

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by CashInFist, Mar 27, 2015.

  1. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Simply take a look at Brady's playoffs WPA per game this past year, when arguably his only offensive weapon was Rob Gronkowski:

    http://www.advancedfootballanalytic...-players/index.php?year=2014&pos=QB&season=po

    There's your "clutch in the playoffs" measure. That WPA per game statistic means that he was associated with plays that added nearly a 50% probability of winning to the Patriots' games in the playoffs. That's pretty noteworthy, obviously.
     
  2. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    bernie cozar and scott mitchel aren't just some chump like matt cassel, sorry...
     
  3. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    That's for 2014. I just did a quick calculation from that link and his average for all playoff games is 22.63%, which is still good.
     
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  4. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It was Scott Mitchell and Steve DeBerg. The point is still made.. if you want to introduce Cassel, point out what Brady did relative to what Belichick did without him in 2000, and also point out that without Brady in 2008, the Patriots "lost" more games from the previous season than the Dolphins did without Marino in 1993.
     
  5. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    - Playoff win % doesn't mean nearly as much as you think it does when you start to compare the passing era (2004+) with the defensive/ball control era (2003-). The game today looks NOTHING like it did in the past, which is why I absolutely believe the pre 2004 era QB's are better than post 2004 QB's. Steve Young > Aaron Rodgers. Marino > Manning. Montana > Brady. Brett Favre had the best year of his entire career (which is saying something considering how dominant he was from 95 through 97) at the age of 40 and goes to the NFC championship game (Bountygate)... The NFL in 2015 is 100% QB driven. This is especially true in the playoffs. The days of Brad Johnson's or Trent Dilfer's winning super bowls is OVER.

    - I absolutely think Marino plays better than Manning in the SB. Manning's arm isn't what it used to be. He can't throw deep anymore. He plays checkdown football these days and lets his beastly weapons do work. Proof of this is his passing yards through the air vs. YAC. He threw for damn near 5500 yards and HALF of those came from YAC. The worst ratio of his career, despite setting a single season passing yardage record.

    Marino never had WR's/TE's combinations like Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker, and Julian Thomas. Not to mention Moreno, who had a career year too, rushing and receiving (1000 rushing and 500 receiving). Marino would feast on defenses with that kind of talent, pushing the ball down the field and attacking the entire field. No one had better field vision than Marino. He wouldn't of played scared vs. Seattle.
     
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  6. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    The league wasn't QB driven in 1993. That's a big difference. Marino was 4-1 with 8 TD's and 3 INT's. If you think Scott Mitchells 12 TD 8 INT (3-4 record) and Steve Deberg's 6 TD 7 INT (2-2 record, would of been 1-3 if not for Leon Lett) is the same as Matt Cassel's 2008 campaign, I don't know what to tell you. The Pats were 16-0 in 2007. Losing just one game would mean more losses than the previous season.
     
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  7. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I've actually never heard someone make the argument that top QB's pre-2004 are better than those post-2004. What is this due to in your opinion? Is it difference in talent? I would find that hard to believe because if anything the talent pool has gotten larger.

    If the difference is not "talent", then the difference is just in the rules of the game. So, if you're right that Marino (or other QB's pre-2004) would do better stat-wise post-2004, then that's expected to be offset by the fact that the opposing QB will also do better by on average the same amount. And if that's true, comparing playoff win % is perfectly reasonable.

    You're going to have to come up with a good reason why pre-2004 QB's are clearly better than post-2004 QB's to argue we can't compare playoff win %.
     
  8. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    First of all, if Miami's substitute QB's in 1993 performed worse than Cassel in 2008, then that defeats muskrat's argument that Cassel was a "chump".

    Second of all, if you say 1993 was not QB driven, then pointing out QB stats from that era shouldn't matter much to you, at least not as much as Cassel's stats, meaning the drop-off in talent on the Patriots was less for Cassel (seen from this point of view) than it was for the Dolphins in 1993. That would only make Brady's value even greater (you get greater difference in wins with less difference between him and his replacement).

    And finally, my post was in response to muskrat introducing a very popular "Cassel" argument for showing why Brady is all "system". My point was that argument falls apart when considering NE in 2000 pre-Brady but with Belichick vs. post-Brady in 2001, and that you could try making similar arguments with Marino's injury in 1993. Keep in mind I do NOT make those arguments. I don't think Brady is all "system", and I wouldn't argue Marino is either. Just saying that presenting only the "Cassel" argument is a bit biased.
     
  9. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    QB success shouldn't be compared or even measured by w-l records.

    Sent from my Transformer TF101 using Tapatalk 4
     
  10. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    I remember reading and hearing the same type of stuff. I think that Shula had as much or even more influence on the W/L record. Don't get me wrong, Marino was a rare QB that could carry a team on his shoulders but Shula engineered the success those guys had...

    Still, I would have loved to see Marino in today's NFL...those measly 5000 yard seasons would be nothing compared to what he could do with his lightning release, pocket presence and pinpoint accuracy...
     
  11. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well.. wins should have something to do with measuring every player's ability. Otherwise, what's the purpose of having that player on the team?

    The only disagreement is how much wins matter. There's no "right" answer anyway, so it's fine to disagree on this.
     
  12. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Shula was a great coach. How he outsmarted Minnesota in SB 8 was impressive (always being one step ahead of what the opponent was doing). Gotta give the guy credit for recognizing what he had in Marino and changing the entire offensive system to be designed around him, when the guy won 2 SB's with an entirely different approach.
     
  13. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Win probability added is a better measure. Take a look here and see what Aaron Rodgers did in his game against the Dolphins in 2014:

    http://www.advancedfootballanalytic...ex.php?playerid=12-A.Rodgers&pos=QB&year=2014

    Rodgers was associated with plays that were nearly fully responsible (93%) with winning the game for the Packers that day.

    Similarly, take a look at what Ryan Tannehill was associated with (74%) against Minnesota in 2014:

    http://www.advancedfootballanalytic....php?playerid=17-R.Tannehill&pos=QB&year=2014

    Using that measure can keep the focus on wins, which is obviously the most important statistic in the league, while divorcing players' performance from that of the rest of the team to a greater degree.

    The Falcons, for example, had one of the worst records (6-10) in the league in 2014, largely due to their very poor defense, but Matt Ryan's WPA per game was nonetheless in the top 10 in the league among QBs who started all of their team's games in 2014.
     
  14. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    I like that. Like win share in bball.
     
  15. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    I take absolutely nothing from Marino or the career he had. He obviously is one of the best QB's in NFL history, but the fact remains that he wasn't even the best QB in his draft class.

    The best QB in the 1983 draft was John Elways and even with all the passing stats Marino had, Elway was the better all around QB. In fact if Elway had been the Dolphins QB during those years, he would probably had all the passing records when he retired, not Marino.
     
  16. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    It's not perfectly reasonable to use playoff win % as meaningful measure of QB greatness.

    #1- Football isn't golf or tennis. It's not an individual game. To assign playoff win % to one player isn't accurate. I could stop here and win this debate...


    #2- The structure of the game has changed to the point where QB play is more important than ever (although, #1 still stands as they're not solely responsible). QB play has more impact today than yesterday. The QB wasn't even the most important player on the field from the 30's-90's. It was the RB. A position no one gives a flying **** about in 2015. In the 80's and 90's, DeMarco Murray is given Dez's money. The Cowboys don't let the leagues leading rusher walk in the 80's and 90's. Miami mortgaged their future for Ricky Williams. That would never happen in 2015. Ricky would be traded for 1st round pick only, at BEST. Even drafting a RB in round 1 is borderline ludicrous by today's standard.

    In 85, NE beat Miami in the AFC championship game 31-14. Tony Eason went 10/12 for 71 yards. Do you really think, in this era of football, if the game were replayed under today's rules, NE beats Miami with a QB passing for just 71 yards?

    If NE played Indy in 2003, with the rules changes that occurred as a result of that game, the pats lose because their defense is getting flagged for pass INT and holding almost every play. Which means NE loses that game and doesn't go to the SB they eventually went to, and win.
     
  17. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    You are in the minority with that opinion. Not many experts/critics would rate John Elway ahead of Dan Marino. On the flip side, Dan Marino probably would have won 4 Super Bowls on those stacked Denver Broncos teams.
     
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  18. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    John Elway is the most overrated QB in NFL history. John Elway's "greatness" might be the biggest myth in NFL history. The Cinderella finish Elway had has seemingly erased the previous 14 years of his career, which was mired in mediocrity.

    - If not for Terrell Davis carring Denver to two SB wins, becoming the first and only player to rush for 2,000 yards twice (back to back no less), Elway considered the biggest choke artist of all time going 0-4 in SB's. And to think, Manning gets **** for being 1-2.
    - A 1.32-1 TD/INT ratio.
    - Sub 80 career QB rating.
    - Only 10 years of his career did he throw more TD's than INT's. Two of those years, he threw just one more TD than INT (13 TD/12 INT, 15 TD/14 INT).
    - One 4,000 yard season
    - 6 Seasons with 20 TD's or more, one of which he threw more INT's than TD's.
    - 0 30 TD seasons

    All hail the great John Elway.
     
  19. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Regarding #1: No one is assigning playoff win % to one player. I'm saying playoff win % is one of many useful measures of QB ability, and that's true as long as "true" QB ability (whatever that is) correlates with playoff win %.

    Regarding #2: I agree the structure of the game has changed the way you describe it. No need to debate that. What I'm saying is that it doesn't matter. Why? Because you have TWO quarterbacks in a game, your own and the opposing one. If both are responsible for x% of the final outcome, then who cares what x is as long as it's the same? It's basically a way of matching opponent level. Does this remove all confounds, specifically due to the different structures of the game? Of course not. But you can't tell me it's unreasonable to compare how well they did against matched opposition.
     
  20. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    This is where you could get some good mileage out of quarterbacks' WPA in the playoffs. Notice that Matt Ryan's contribution to the Falcons this year, as measured by WPA, withstood the Falcons' very poor defense's overwhelming contribution to the team's 6-10 overall record.
     
  21. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah, it's definitely useful in that sense. I think there's more you can do with it though. They could break down what kind of plays generated the most WPA for different teams/QB's etc.. That's not difficult to do, makes no extra assumptions, and it would tell you what the different teams/players are differentially better/worse at.
     
  22. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Marino was the best ever. You KNOW that he can win on bad teams, none of those other QB's can you say that about.
     
  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    But even the greatest of all time, depending on who you talk to, couldn't win the big one by himself. The Dolphins had several years with Marino where they backed into the playoffs via Wildcard spots. This in no way tarnishes the greatness of Marino, but it certainly illustrates the silliness of those who want to hold Tannehill solely responsible for not making the playoffs.
     
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  24. SilverZ

    SilverZ New Member

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    I am a Pats fan who reads this forum because I think the Dolphins are a very interesting team. This thread has made me make an account because anyone who says Brady is not in the conversation as the GOAT is insane.

    To claim that Brady looks like crap when his defense plays badly is just stupid. Did you watch the playoffs this year? He brought his team back from two 14 point deficits in the same game and a 10 point deficit in the super bowl against a defense people were calling one of the best ever (undeservingly in my mind). Additionally arguing that Brady is a system QB is stupid and that just "dinks and dunks" should not be an insult since it works. If what he did was so easy everyone else would do it as well. Brady has wins and very good stats on his resume and should be in the conversation as best ever.

    I would never take Manning over Brady even though "Manning changed the game" because of how many one and done playoffs Manning has had. When you are a top seed in the playoffs you should be expected to win your first game. I believe that 9 one and done’s is a massive black spot on Manning’s resume. He can have his stats, I will take worse stats and many more wins.

    I can't speak to Marino other than his numbers in comparison to other QB's of his era are insane and with the current rules favoring passing it is fun to think of what he could do now.
     
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  25. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I've been saying this for years. Literally, as long as people have been discrediting the Patriots success with that line, I've been saying if it was so easy, EVERYONE should do it.
     
  26. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    Everyone is doing it... Yards gained from passes through the air vs. YAC is at an all-time low.
     
  27. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    LOL

    Ok, then why is Brady, and the Patriots system, criticized by many for being "dink and dunk" as a way to diminish their success? If everyone is doing it, then the criticism should go away. Not to mention, I don't believe that many other systems are having the success that Brady and the Patriots are having with it.
     
  28. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No doubt Marino can win on bad teams, but Manning led the Colts to a 10-6 season in 2010, while without Manning (mostly with the same team, though there were some injuries) they went 2-14 in 2011. That's the biggest discrepancy in wins I can think of between having a starting QB vs. him being injured. Oh, and Luck returned the Colts to winning with an 11-5 record the year after. I think a good number of QB's can win on bad teams.
     
  29. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    That would make Peyton Manning the best QB of all time. Because when he was healthy, the Colts were consistently one of the best teams in the NFL, as have been the Broncos since Manning became their starting QB.

    The one year Manning was injured and out for the season, the Colts were the worst team in the NFL. So obviously without Manning, those Colt teams which went to the playoffs every year,would have been pretty awful.

    So if the criteria of the greatest QB of all time is based on taking average talent and leading them to the playoffs on a consistent basis, Peyton Manning wins hands down.
     
  30. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

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    Because the coaches just share their system with the league so all the teams can do it. And all the players are clones of players that fit the system, amirite? It's very hard to just copy and paste a system that works in one place to your place. You need coaches, scouts, players, front office.....
     
  31. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    "Suck for Luck" ring a bell?
     
  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah, I thought there was something fishy going on too back then, but the one thing you have to keep in mind is that while the owners might want to Suck for Luck, the players are almost certainly not in on it. Their future salaries will depend on their production. What the Colts did do is keep some players from starting that would have otherwise started, but that's not explaining 2-14.

    Also, you only need to look at how the Dolphins botched the Suck for Luck thing to see it's unlikely that explains it.
     
  33. SilverZ

    SilverZ New Member

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    Manning has played with the best collection of offensive talent of any QB in the discussion as best ever. The fact that they went 2-14 after he went down should be a critique on how the Colts were run not how good Manning is.

    The Colts never had a serviceable backup and paid for it. When Brady went down the Pats went from 16-0 to 10-6. The Colts going from 10-6 to 2-14 is only an 8 game swing. Two games does not prove Manning is the best all time.
     
  34. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    The question was whether Marino is the ONLY quarterback that can win on bad teams.
     
  35. SilverZ

    SilverZ New Member

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    Misread that, but I would still not say Manning won on bad teams. He has almost always been surrounded by 1st and 2nd round picks, he has never had to do more with less.
     
  36. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well.. it's hard to say 2-14 is not a bad team. Maybe one of the reasons the guys Manning played with did well was because of him.
     
  37. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    16-0 with an *. Let's not forget how they cheated..
     
  38. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    To actually accomplish the feat of having the worst team in the league in an effort to get the first pick in the draft, everyone would have to be on board to lose enough games.

    That would mean the coaches, GM, and players would all have to go into each game with the goal of losing the game. The fact the head coach, GM, and the head of football operations were all fired after the Colts went 2-14, as well as many of the players were cut from the team by the new coaching staff, would basically show that the Colts losing all those games in an effort to draft Luck is a bunch of BS.

    The fact is that the Colts were really not a very talented team and it was only because of the play of Manning they were able to have winning seasons.

    They just happen to be extremely fortunate that the one season Manning missed was also the season in which they were able to select Luck in the following draft. The truth is, they didn't go out to "suck for Luck". The reality is that the Colts without Manning that year just sucked period.
     
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  39. SilverZ

    SilverZ New Member

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    Still just an 8 game swing. Brady goes down and its a 6 game swing against a very easy schedule with a much better backup QB. Losing a top tier QB is going to see a significant decline in total wins. I don't think it indicates anything specific about how good or bad a team was seeing as how you can not have an established elite QB in todays NFL and not have holes elsewhere.
     
  40. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Cassel actually had a better year two years later in Kansas City.
     

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