Is #14 a bad spot for the Dolphins?

Typical YouTube cut-up reel of Melvin Gordon:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsnQkFKz2t4

You can see how often Gordon is just cruising right through wide-open lanes and getting onto the LBs and the DBs in open space. That not only helps pile up the yardage but keeps a guy fresh and healthy throughout the season.

Melvin Gordon's 408-yd performance against Nebraska:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMD_iQr9q7s

This was a great performance because he averaged 16 yards per carry. Almost every run seems like it's a huge chunk being broken off. You don't run for 400 yards without some awesome moves. Gordon just ripped Nebraska apart.


Typical YouTube cut-up reel of Todd Gurley:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQkHP5BxxMU

This really shows 2 things: how physical and hard to tackle Gurley is and how he still manages to call upon that break-away speed when he needs it. Gurley seems to be able to call upon both sides of the RB coin in the same way that Ricky Williams did. Sometimes he's the most physical guy on the field. Sometimes he's the fastest guy on the field.




Like I said above, if you feel like Todd Gurley is going to stay healthy at the NFL level, this isn't even a debate, you take him anywhere in the 1st round and you walk away feeling like you just found $100 on the ground. But, if you pass, everyone will understand why you were more cautious. Melvin Gordon is not a replacement for Todd Gurley but he's a hell of a RB himself and he has the kind of big-play ability that many of the league's better RBs showed in their college days, he's just not likely to become one of the league's top-5 guys. I don't see him reaching the Jamaal Charles level. Gordon is really not the Peterson or Lynch type of guy so, as I say, he's probably not top-5 material. He's probably destined to become a top-10 type of guy like Andre Ellington and Lamar Miller are now if he goes to a team with a decent O-line.

 

All that being said....if I'm sitting here comparing Melvin Gordon to Andre Ellington (and to some extent Lamar Miller), consider for a moment that Ellington was a 6th round pick and that Miller was a 4th round pick.

Yes, Melvin Gordon is a good RB and probably a better prospect that Ellington and Miller were, but do you take a Melvin Gordon when you already have Lamar Miller and when such talent can apparently be gotten in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft?

So while late-round value like Andre Ellington and Lamar Miller as well as under-achievers like Trent Richardson are some of the reasons people argue against RBs high in the draft, players like Marshawn Lynch, LaDanian Tomlinson, Edgerrin James and lots of others have proven that franchise backs can really be integral to a teams success and the growth of a (good) young QB.


When you think about that, you can see why Gurley is the player being discussed. If we're speaking only from the perspective of the Miami Dolphins, Melvin Gordon just doesn't have the kind of value that would warrant a mid-to-late first round pick.

 

I am all in on Gurley because I don't think we have a shot at Cooper and I do think if we run the ball more it will lead us to more victories. We need that back that can lead us to running out the clock with the lead. Miller & Gurley would be a great fit together. We could still trade down in second to pick up the 3rd we gave up in the Stills trade. For ILB I really like Ben Heeney for us in 4th.

 

Yeah, I have to be honest, it's hard to find an NFL comparison for Melvin Gordon that really fits. He's not as explosive as Jamaal Charles, but he's a bit thicker. I'm not sure the comparison is quite fair to Jamaal Charles who really excels at a particular style and it's not fair to put those expectations on Gordon. At the same time, I agree with you on Andre Ellington. He's not a big guy and that comparison is probably not quite fair to Melvin Gordon even though he's yet to take an NFL snap.


To be honest, I think what this comes down to is offensive strategy. To me, every team needs a thumper. Now, rarely does that thumper come out of the first round. Usually that player is a mid-to-late draft pick or someone taken as an UDFA, but the important thing is that player has a certain ability and will outperform his contract based on situational value. What I'm talking about is the kind of big RB that serves a particular need. They typically get handed the ball early in games to wear down a defense (Brandon Jacobs) or they get handed the ball late to go get the tough yards (Lagarrette Blount). Those two guys I used as examples, were not high-value commodities in the draft, but they are physically very large and powerful players. Both Jacobs and Blount weigh-in about 250 lbs. We all remember Blount's famous post-game punch and that certainly didn't help his draft stock but he wasn't selected. Jacobs was taken in the 4th round by the Giants.

So the real question is, 'why expend resources on a luxury pick in the first round, when you can get what you really need for a lot less later on?'

Miami needs that type of player (a situational fix) more than they need Melvin Gordon in my opinion--and please don't take that as a knock on Melvin Gordon. If the Dolphins didn't have Lamar Miller, it would be a different story but with Miller already here, what does Melvin Gordon really offer that the team didn't have prior? Yes, it's always good to add talent, but you want that talent to equate to more wins, not just more depth.

One problem with this 2015 draft is that none of the premier RBs in this draft (Gurley, Gordon, etc.) are really that big at all. Since almost everyone on the list is between 5'10" and 6'0", I'll leave out the heights but take a look:

220 lbs - Todd Gurley
213 lbs - Melvin Gordon

by way of comparison...

224 lbs - Lamar Miller
220 lbs - Knowshon Moreno
217 lbs - Demarco Murray
217 lbs - Frank Gore
210 lbs - Andre Ellington
208 lbs - Lesean McCoy
200 lbs - Jamaal Charles

You might point to a guy like Frank Gore because he's only about 217 lbs but he's quite short at 5'9" so he always has leverage and can run quite low. Same story with Ray Rice who's only 5'8". By comparison Melvin Gordon is 6'1" which is actually quite tall for a RB, much taller than Frank Gore or Ray Rice. Melvin Gordon would be about the tallest guy amongst that list I believe. I think Moreno does the most to add credit to the 'big power at 220 lbs' notion but he tends to run quite angry and welcomes contact, where as Melvin Gordon does not seem to feature that attribute in such an extreme fashion.

Most every RB puts on a little weight during their first couple NFL seasons. Demarco Murray put on about 5 lbs. I believe Lamar Miller was about 212 when he was drafted so if we assume that he's put on 10-12 lbs, we might do the same for Melvin Gordon. So if Gordon also goes from 213 up to around 225 within a couple years, he's still basically the same size as Lamar Miller and with the added weight, Gordon will probably have lost some acceleration and speed as well (much like Miller did).

So, point blank, how does that resonate?

To me, having a second, more explosive Lamar Miller doesn't really make a lot of sense from a value standpoint. I'm not sure how much better we can be in between the 20s, thus I'm not sure Melvin Gordon would equate to the Dolphins winning any more games. I guess if Lazor has a plan which would make our RBs the focal point of the offense, sure, it wouldn't be a bust of a pick I don't think. I would certainly entertain the idea if Miami was 10 or so spots down in the draft order.

Now, Todd Gurley isn't as big as I'd like either, but at least he could probably get to 225 without losing any of his explosiveness and as his career moved forward he would probably get to 230 lbs. That, to me, is much closer to sounding correct in regards to what kind of player the Miami Dolphins need.


All that said, Gurley's injury history does scare me and I'm hesitant on him right now.

 

Firstly, there really has never been a team that only need 1 guy from the first round to "get over the hump." That is sort of an unrealistic notion people conjure up to make it sound like the RB position is an afterthought in today's NFL. That couldn't be further from the truth. No, the RB position is not an afterthought. The only reason that idea (which seems to have been invented about 4-5 years ago) has any merit is that it's overwhelmingly important to have a good QB if you want to get to the Play-offs. It sometimes begins to look like an afterthought when there is an elite QB involved, but even then, it's still about finding the right pieces at RB. Look at NE, they want most of their RBs to be receivers as much as ball-carriers. That's smart thinking and you'd better believe that it's planned.

But anyway...let's forget about the RB issue. We've said enough on that and I don't think either one of us is totally on board with a RB in the first. It's just an idea we're kicking around. Thanks for the ideas though!

What do you like about Devante Parker? I'm not particularly fond of anyone after Cooper and White as being the pick in the middle of the 1st round. I don't really see a Julio Jones or Sammy Watkins in this draft, and I'm not particularly big on the Dolphins taking the 3rd or 4th best of any position when they're so high.

My argument against WR in this draft...and again this isn't hard science it's just a point I'm making...is that Tannehill threw for 4,000 yards last year. Even if he adds another 500 yards of production to that total, the bulk of it will go to Kenny Stills, Jordan Cameron and Jarvis Landry. Last year Hartline was his ever efficient self and he only amassed about 40 catches and 400 yards. Even if the Dolphins picked a WR in round one (which kind of flies in the face of this draft being about depth I think), that player would be pretty lucky to catch 50 balls and put up 700 yards worth of receptions.

To me, it doesn't sound like we need a 1st round WR to do that. I think Rishard Matthews could easily do that if he were a starter and with Landry and Stills being so young and the fact that we'll always have someone playing TE (be it Cameron or someone else), I have a hard time seeing how a first round WR really represents value unless you're able to steal someone like Cooper or White.

I think the Dolphins are unlikely to move up for Cooper or White, thus there is really no value in them reaching on one of these WRs (whoever it is that's ranked highest) based on the fact that player really isn't going to be able to contribute like a featured first round WR usually does.

I think the depth in this draft clearly spells out that Miami should take a WR around the same point they did last year when they surprised everyone and grabbed Jarvis Landry in the 2nd. To me, that seems like the sensible thing to do given the limited production that is going to come from the WR that compliments Stills, Landry, Matthews, Cameron.

 

Good post. Exactly my thoughts. Stills is the deep threat, Landry the slot, and Matthews can be a strong option as the teams 4th WR, and Cameron at TE. But this team doesn't have that elite WR. And the WRs Stills, Landry, and Matthews none of them are tall and a top red zone target. The team has that with Cameron at TE but they need that at WR too. They need that #1 WR. After that, a G, and a big complimentary RB to pair with Miller and this offense is set.

 

I think I'd rather strong than Parker, particularly if we can get Strong and another draft pick.

 

It has been reported that he said with his agent there, that he will be ready for training camp.

 

Adrian Peterson.........

 

Good post, thx. As to Parker vs. Strong I'm leaning towards Parker as well, more burst and separation abillity, although Strong is no slouch at 4.45 as he showed at the combine. But acceleration, burst and separation ability- I'm thinking Parker.

The problem is whether or not either one is a #14 overall caliber receiver- Jordan Matthews was a 2nd rd pick last year, 42nd overall- of him and the other two guys I'd probably take Matthews, and that's a problem. Do either Parker or Strong offer a compelling value proposition at #14? I'd probably trade down if I could, look at Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Trae Waynes, Brandon Scherff if he slips and La'el Collins, who is simply a mobile beast who can cover us as critical/extreme need positions of LT and OG. And the end of the day I'd rather trade down from #14 and get the 3rd back or maybe a 2nd, some team might be hot to get to the 14 slot.

 

#14 could very well be terrible for us. We're in a prime position to overdraft and lose value. Hopefully, someone like a Danny Shelton falls to us. Hopefully Miami doesn't look at what Buffalo did last year and trade up for Amari Cooper/Kevin White by giving up prime picks next year.

 

I'll tell you in a couple of years.

 

If we pass on Gordon we will regret it.

 

A lot of teams are going to pass on him. When a guy like Eddie Lacy is found in the second round theyre not going to invest high on a running back.

 

If they don't get Cooper, White, Shelton, or Waynes they need to trade back.

 

This year's 4th and next year's 4th (which is like this year's 5th) + our #14 will move you up to 11-12, but not 9 according to this:
http://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php

Either way, I'd pick Cooper for sure even with proper compensation.

 

I don't know how accurate that chart is of course, but if it's accurate you'd still be 100 pts shy of #9.

 

Injured his ankle 2005, missed a few games. Broke his collarbone the next year missed the rest of the season.

I'd say the history is pretty close. These are the injuries he suffered: dislocated left shoulder, right high ankle sprain, broken right clavicle

 

White and Cooper will be gone at #14. If either Waynes (I'm afraid he also will be gone) or Parker is still there, I'm ok with that pick. If not, I would try to trade down and select Kendricks or La'ell Collins. To pick one of them without trade down at #14 would be a bit high but I would nonetheless do it. I said last year the same about Ja'wuan James and I think it paid out pretty well. Both Kendricks and Collins are very good quality starters for me.

 

never mind, that we already got a QB on the roster...stop trolling

 

The guy I want most in this draft (within reason) is Breshad Perriman. Liked him before the pro day and love him now. I would rank him higher than Devante Parker and think he is the kind of big fast target that Tannehill needs if he is to continue to ascend. Reminds me of Brandon Marshall in how physical he was attacking the ball in the air coming out of school. I'm sure most people see 14 as way too high for him though I'm guessing the media draft narrative will likely see him rise up boards in the next month. Kiper has him as high as 18 already and Mayock also has him mid first round. And in his latest mock McShay has the Dolphins taking him in round one. So from that perspective I love drafting at 14 as I think that will be his "perceived value" come May.

Now if his hype is bigger than his reality and we can trade down and still grab him - awesome. But I really feel like he would round out our receiving corps nicely and would complement Stills and Landry in our 3 WR set.

That Perriman has NFL bloodlines is also an enormous plus for me. I would think Breshad has to be aware the amount of effort it takes to excel in the league - his dad was a journeyman for much of his time in the league before exploding with a 1400 yard season at the age of 30. He's a great blueprint for his son to follow.

 

With the 14th pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, McShay mocks Miami to select Central Florida wide receiver Breshad Perriman. McShay explains the pick of the 6-foot-2, 212-pound junior, writing:

http://www.thephinsider.com/2015-nf...2015-4-0-are-dolphins-reaching-for-a-receiver

 

Bernardrick McKinney...

 

Another good proxy for Perriman is Demaryius Thomas. Thomas was a dangerous deep threat coming out of Georgia Tech but was a very raw route runner. He too had his share of drops yet was drafted high because he was an athetic specimen (6'3" 225, 4.4). Perriman actually looks bigger on film but Thomas had him beat by 10 pounds; on the flip side, Thomas looks faster and more fluid on the field, though Perriman's straight 40 time is faster.