1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Rumor: Dolphins close to deal with Crabtree ($3.5-4 million a year)

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Phins Up Wins Up, Mar 20, 2015.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    .. or trip on a blade on grass ..
     
  2. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

    12,162
    5,057
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    I don't see the big hurry too, I want to see Tannehill prove something first, believe me I'm not sold. This is a different era and numbers are much inflated compared to the 90's, 80's, and 70's and some here are still living in the past. The only stats I care for is playoff appearances and playoff wins.

    But my post was just me guessing what they would be doing with the savings from Clay.
     
    crkranz and jw3102 like this.
  3. Harleydude666

    Harleydude666 Active Member

    222
    128
    43
    Mar 17, 2014
    Huge Thill fan here and I agree also. This is the year to tell us what we got. I believe he's the guy, he's tough as nails, rocket arm, he's smart, and people kill him for the long ball but I saw him with 3 bombs against the pats last year and they were dropped. The long ball issue was with Wallace. His long ball still needs improvement but I think he can do it. However, let him play this out and stay hungry. This is one contract we can't make a mistake with, let it all play out because we don't owe Thill anything at this point.
     
    xphinfanx, jw3102 and WhiteIbanez like this.
  4. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,327
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Considering only 11 QBs threw for 4000+ yard last year, I don't think it's crazy to still consider some of those numbers legit. It's not like average QBs are throwing for 4k in the league. That being said, playoff appearances and wins are a team stat, not a QB stat.
     
    Phins Up Wins Up likes this.
  5. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,354
    20,976
    113
    Sep 4, 2014

    The problem, however, is you're attributing a team sports success to one person. I'm sure there are dozens of "stats" for those Championship teams that show they were ranked pretty high. For example, I propose that defense rank is a better correlation for winning than any other stat. There are many examples of teams winning Championships without a top QB. There are only 2 teams, that I know of, that won a Championship without a defense ranked better than the league average.
     
  6. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

    1,818
    572
    0
    Dec 23, 2014
    Here's your study on that: http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2008/01/does-defense-win-championships.html
     
    danmarino likes this.
  7. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,354
    20,976
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    I just skimmed through the article. (I'll read it more in depth when I have more time. Thanks for posting it)

    However, from what I did read it seems the author was out to prove the assertion that "defense wins championships is wrong". Again, that's my first impression from skimming the article.

    I'll try to find the article I read about the last Super Bowl match-up. (2014- Denver vs Seattle) Each team was ranked 1st in either defense or offense. (Points scored vs Points allowed was the determining factor) I'm sure you know which team was which.

    Now, since the beginning of the Superbowl era, 10 Superbowls matched up the #1 Defense vs the #1 Offense. The team with the #1 defense won 80% of the time. That's a pretty strong correlation.
     
  8. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Quick summary for everyone: The author is basically looking at the average yards per play for every offense and every defense from the 2002-2006 regular seasons. That's 5*32 = 160 teams, and he's comparing the histograms of those 160 offenses and 160 defenses. He notes that the tail ends of the histogram for offense > tail ends for defense. He's saying because the tail ends are where playoff/championship teams come from, that means that the average playoff offense is better than the average playoff defense.

    Well.. it's nice data but a weak argument because it doesn't give us any idea how a top offense will play against a top defense (the tail ends could be due to the performance of top offense vs. bad defense and/or top defense vs. bad offense).

    I think a quick and dirty way of determining whether "defense wins championships" (what happens when teams from the tail ends meet) is to see which is the better predictor of the final score of the Super Bowl: difference between points per game by offense, or difference between points per game by defense (both stats from the regular season, like in that article).

    So, for 2002-2006, for the Super Bowl teams (winner first, loser second), we have:

    Offense points per game:
    2002: Patriots: 23.8 Rams: 19.8
    2003: Bucs: 18.8 Raiders: 16.9
    2004: Patriots: 27.3 Panthers: 22.2
    2005: Patriots: 23.7 Eagles: 19.4
    2006: Steelers: 22.1 Seattle: 20.9

    Defense points per game:
    2002: Patriots: 21.6 Rams: 23.1
    2003: Bucs: 16.5 Raiders: 23.7
    2004: Patriots: 16.2 Panthers: 21.1
    2005: Patriots: 21.1 Eagles: 24.2
    2006: Steelers: 19.7 Seattle: 21.3

    Super Bowl score:
    2002: Patriots: 20 Rams: 17
    2003: Bucs: 48 Raiders: 21
    2004: Patriots: 32 Panthers: 29
    2005: Patriots: 24 Eagles: 21
    2006: Steelers: 21 Seattle: 10


    Whether you use the mean or the median you get the same result: the difference in points per game by offense is a worse predictor of the score differential in the Super Bowl than difference in points per game by the defense (mean: 7.86 to 6.54, and median: 2.1 to 1.9, with the smaller number being better because these are differences between score differentials). So, in that sense, "defense wins championships" (i.e. defensive points per game better predicts who wins the Super Bowl).
     
  9. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

    1,385
    560
    113
    Oct 11, 2013
    The bottom lind is every SB champion over the past decade plus has been a top 10 team in overall efficiency, all have had a top defense or a top offense and most have had both. All except the Giants that is, who did it twice, ranking 14th and 12th respectively, beating the 3rd and 1st ranked team in overall efficiency those years.

    Overall efficiency is what wins championships, and as far as I have looked back I have yet to see a SB champion that was ranked in the bottom half of the league.
     
  10. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

    1,818
    572
    0
    Dec 23, 2014
    I don't know if the result would be any different using DVOA, but points are only gross measure of both the outcomes of games and the effectiveness of offensive and defensive units during the season, since they don't incorporate points those units aren't responsible for, and they don't consider the strength of the opposition. This is where something like DVOA, at least in theory, is much more precise.
     
  11. 54Fins

    54Fins "In Gase we trust"

    4,464
    1,515
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    over there
    You ever see Pete Rose play?
     
  12. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Yeah, no doubt. But at least using points is better than nothing. The thing missing in that analysis you linked to is any idea of what happens when teams at the tail ends of the distributions play each other. Does one get the same result using offensive vs. defensive yards/game, or any other stat? Who knows. What would be interesting is if you get the same result no matter what kind of commonly used stat you use. Then the problems with those stats (including DVOA) start to disappear.
     
  13. Revolver90

    Revolver90 New Member

    5
    2
    0
    Mar 25, 2015
    This guy was always overrated
     
  14. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

    10,823
    2,214
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Ok this thread has %#@$ with me twice now. No deal is closed with Crabtree.
     
  15. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Rose had probably a far above avg number of RBI for a lead off hitter. I saw him play a lot. The Big Red Machine got a lot of TV time back in the day.
     
  16. CrunchTime

    CrunchTime Administrator Retired Administrator

    23,327
    35,934
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Latest on the Crabtree situation.Apparently he didnt think the Dolphin offer was good enough but now it appears its the only one he has if you believe this report.

    Source: Bleacher Report
     
    Itsdahumidity, MrClean, SICK and 4 others like this.
  17. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

    8,560
    4,133
    113
    May 9, 2008
    Any word on Jennings making any other visits?
     
  18. Ronnie Bass

    Ronnie Bass Luxury Box Luxury Box

    16,376
    10,864
    113
    Dec 19, 2007
    Wow, how the mighty have fallen. Well mighty probably in his own mind.
     
  19. gunn34

    gunn34 I miss Don & Dan

    21,755
    3,475
    113
    Jan 5, 2008
    Oviedo FL
    That's funny
     
  20. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

    10,823
    2,214
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Holding out for peanuts lol.
     
  21. CrunchTime

    CrunchTime Administrator Retired Administrator

    23,327
    35,934
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    IMO He is still in the picture but as a Plan B .
     
  22. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

    52,652
    25,565
    113
    Nov 13, 2009
    Was there any question Crabtree is all about his pocketbook? (who can really blame him though).

    This guy ain't a winner.
     
  23. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    Personally I was just shocked when I watched his 2014 tape how slow he looked. He looked like a tight end.

    I mean, Hakeem Nicks is supposed to be FINISHED...and he looked faster. And it's not close.
     
    xphinfanx likes this.
  24. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

    79,599
    159,162
    113
    Dec 1, 2007
    One interesting thing about Crabtree is that he's never run a 40 yard dash that I can tell.

    He got a Jones fracture in his foot while training for the Combine (he claimed that it's a stress fracture and that he had it for well over a year and never felt any pain from it, doctors disagreed) and never ran a 40 yard dash before being drafted.
     
  25. Sumlit

    Sumlit Well-Known Member

    4,796
    2,760
    113
    Feb 27, 2012
    Miami
    The delusion is strong in Crabtree. $9-10M, is he high? Maybe someone misses a WR in the draft and gets desperate, but still, chances are he won't get half of that.
     
  26. normaldude

    normaldude Active Member

    225
    204
    43
    Oct 13, 2009
    Agility Tests

    Campus: 4.54 in the 40-yard dash … 1.61 10-yard dash … 2.62 20-yard dash … 4.06 20-yard shuttle … 6.87 three-cone drill … 270-pound bench press … 350-pound squat … 34-inch vertical jump.

    Combine: Did not work out due to a previous right ankle sprain. Bone scan at the Combine revealed a stress fracture in his left foot.

    http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/historical/1125838
     
  27. Samphin

    Samphin Κακό σκυλί ψόφο δεν έχει

    He tore his achilles...I assume that will slow anyone down.
     

Share This Page