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Trading Down

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Apr 10, 2015.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Not much of a Kelly fan but this is succinctly put:

    Now, you might disagree on the picks but it raises the question, what sort of picks might the Fins be able to get for #14 and who might be viable targets with those picks?


    Along those lines, the DraftTek Sim currently projects a 2nd round selection for both Perryman (#43 to Cleveland) and Dorsett (#57 To Carolina).

    Additionally, find below Mayock's latest positional rankings for the 2015 Draft, I've highlighted Perryman (his #4 LB) and Grayson, the QB that showed up as a Dolphins late round pick, whom Mayock has as his #4 QB in this draft, which I thought was interesting. For more on Grayson and Mayock's look at the QB's go here for an NFL.com video.


    Quarterback
    1. Marcus Mariota, Oregon
    2. Jameis Winston, Florida State
    3. Bryce Petty, Baylor
    4. Garrett Grayson, Colorado State
    5. Brett Hundley, UCLA
    Rise: Mariota (2), Grayson (5)
    Fall: Winston (1), Hundley (4)

    Running back
    1. Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
    2. Todd Gurley, Georgia
    3. Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska
    4. Duke Johnson, Miami (Fla.)
    5. Tevin Coleman, Indiana

    Wide receiver
    1. Kevin White, West Virginia
    2. Amari Cooper, Alabama
    3. DeVante Parker, Louisville
    4. Breshad Perriman, Central Florida
    T-5. Dorial Green-Beckham, Missouri
    T-5. Nelson Agholor, USC
    Rise: Perriman (T-5), Agholor (NR)
    Fall: Jaelen Strong, Arizona State (4)

    Tight End
    1. Maxx Williams, Minnesota
    2. Clive Walford, Miami (Fla.)
    3. Blake Bell, Oklahoma
    4. Nick O'Leary, Florida State
    5. Tyler Kroft, Rutgers
    Rise: Bell (4), O'Leary (5), Kroft (NR)
    Fall: MyCole Pruitt, Southern Illinois (3)

    Interior offensive linemen
    1. Brandon Scherff, Iowa
    2. Cameron Erving, Florida State
    3. Laken Tomlinson, Duke
    4. A.J. Cann, South Carolina
    5. Tre' Jackson, Florida State

    Offensive tackle
    1. La'el Collins, LSU
    2. Ereck Flowers, Miami (Fla.)
    3. D.J. Humphries, Florida
    4. Andrus Peat, Stanford
    T-5. T.J. Clemmings, Pittsburgh
    T-5. Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M
    Rise: Flowers (4), Humphries (T-5)
    Fall: Clemmings (2), Peat (3)

    Interior defensive linemen
    1. Leonard Williams, USC
    2. Arik Armstead, Oregon
    3. Malcom Brown, Texas
    4. Danny Shelton, Washington
    T-5. Eddie Goldman, Florida State
    T-5. Jordan Phillips, Oklahoma
    Rise: Armstead (4)
    Fall: Shelton (2)

    Edge rusher
    1. Dante Fowler, Jr., Florida
    2. Randy Gregory, Nebraska
    3. Vic Beasley, Clemson
    4. Bud Dupree, Kentucky
    5. Shane Ray, Missouri
    Rise: Gregory (4), Dupree (5)
    Fall: Ray (2)

    Linebacker
    1. Paul Dawson, TCU
    2. Eric Kendricks, UCLA
    3. Stephone Anthony, Clemson
    4. Denzel Perryman, Miami (Fla.)
    5. Benardrick McKinney, Mississippi State
    Rise: Perryman (5)
    Fall: McKinney (4)

    Cornerback
    1. Trae Waynes, Michigan State
    2. Jalen Collins, LSU
    3. Marcus Peters, Washington
    4. Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest
    T-5. Eric Rowe, Utah
    T-5. Byron Jones, Connecticut
    Rise: Rowe (NR)
    Fall: Williams (T-5)

    Safety
    1. Landon Collins, Alabama
    2. Shaq Thompson, Washington
    3. Damarious Randall, Arizona State
    4. Quinten Rollins, Miami (Ohio)
    5. Alex Carter, Stanford
    Rise: Randall (4), Rollins (NR), Carter (NR)
    Fall: Derron Smith, Fresno State (3); Jaquiski Tartt, Samford (5)
     
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  2. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    If there's no player who the staff loves with a capital L then trading down is the best option IMO.
     
  3. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Mayock's safety rankings are bizarre to me. 3 of the 5 played other positions, primarily, in college, which makes them projections. Granted this is considered a weak safety class, but if *I* wanted a safety, I'd rather take Derron Smith or Tartt, along with a few others, than a guy whose never played there like Rollins. Carter played 3 years at corner in the pass happy Pac 12 and has 2 career picks. Scouts say he has hands of stone.
    Why would anyone want him at safety over ball magnets like Smith, 15 career picks, Cody Prewitt, 12 career picks, or Anthony Harris, 11 career picks?
    Mayock just tries to get too god damned cute with his top 5 rankings sometimes.
     
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  4. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm all for trading back, particularly if some team behind us gets all hot and bothered (like when DJ is watching Wake). Really deep receiver class, good guard class.
     
  5. TomLikePhinsUk

    TomLikePhinsUk New Member

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    With only 6 picks this year I don't mind trading back. The receiver class this year is extremely deep and Landry last season proved that you can still get value out of second round receivers. We also have way too many gaps all over the field to settle for a player at #14 that we are not totally in love with, when the possibility to move back could still be available.
     
  6. The Sportz Guy

    The Sportz Guy New Member

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    It simply depends on who is available when the Dolphins are up to select at #14. If the likes of DeVante Parker, Trae Waynes, Ereck Flowers, Danny Shelton, etc. are gone; then it would only make sense to attempt to trade back and re-gain some picks (specifically in the second and third rounds). There's no value in reaching for a player if it's highly likely that player will be available 5-10 picks later.

    If an elite prospect is available, then I'm against the notion of trading back. You select elite players and don't think twice about it - it's as simple as that. You find yourself regretting many choices when you try to outsmart yourself by utilizing the fortune of an elite prospect falling to gain more selections. The later the selection in the draft, the lower the odds that player pans out. Dave Hyde wrote a column post about this idea (I'm sure many of you have already read this): http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/...-of-dolphins-trading-down-20150404-story.html. While I think trading down can be fantastic, it must be done at the right time. While the Dolphins need depth, they also need Pro Bowlers; Miami lacks stars (Suh is a nice start). Depth can be found - stars are rare.
     
  7. Onehondo

    Onehondo Senior Member Club Member

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    The Dolphins paid a hefty sum to get an elite player in Dion Jordan who hasn't shown to be an elite player as yet. I don't mind getting an elite game changing player at #14, but I also don't mind and like the idea of trading back to get extra pick(s).
     
  8. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    It's obviously a gamble no matter what happens but the choice here is getting one potentially elite player versus two good players. It's the highest level of talent versus high-level talent + depth.

    With the half-rebuild that's taken place over the last couple of years in addition to the drop in players AND picks this year trading down just makes sense to me because the Phins need talent and depth and are lacking in picks. Of course, trading down puts more pressure in Hickey and the scouts to get their picks right. Their are better odds of grabbing one great player high in the 1st round than hitting on two good/great players in the first and second rounds. If they're confident in their ability to pull it off, then I think you go for it this year and get two for the price of one.

    Having said that, it's easy to understate the value of one really, really good pick filling up a roster spot and making a huge difference. I don't really follow college level sports a all so I rarely have any knowledge about draftees apart from what I pick up via reports this year. I can see arguments for the Dolphins going for a #1 WR, CB, OG/T, LB but from all I've heard, this draft has enough depth that some wise picks could yield solid players in almost all those positions. If that's the case then I think you have to trade down and make that happen, even if it means missing out on a star talent at any one of those positions.
     
  9. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    I don't even like to think about trade backs because the ability to do so is so unknown and most teams, outside of a few in the top slot, would like to trade down.
     
  10. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    Cincy, KC, and New Orleans all have two 3rd round picks. NE does too, but highly doubt we'd deal with them. Although, I'm sure stranger things have happened.

    So, unless a blue-chipper falls to #14, I hope we trade back and replace the third we dealt to New Orleans for Stills.

    KC looks like our best option IMO. Move back 4 spots in round #1 and pick up a third rounder. Done deal.
     
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  11. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    Give me Todd Gurley at #14 please.
     
  12. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I think Mike Tannenbaum averaged more than one trade UP per year in New York.

    He had a total of maybe two trade downs, his entire time as GM.

    Just keep that in mind.
     
  13. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Why?
     
  14. ToddPhin

    ToddPhin Premium Member Luxury Box Club Member

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    I'd trade down all day long if it meant not taking Parker at #14.
     
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  15. Georgia Fin

    Georgia Fin Fin For Life

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    Kinda like a West Coast Wildfire, smoke is everywhere. Feels like we are blatantly sniffing around Gurley to snare someone to jump up. Maybe Dallas, maybe Arizona, maybe a dark horse, but it doesn't seem like he would be our true choice at 14. Drop back and pick up an additional pick or drop back and pick up a player to fill a roster void are all valid possibilities. I have been please with what they have managed to pull off this offseason and look for the Draft to be nothing less than exciting as well. This time of year all GMs are like drunk girls, they love everybody.
     
  16. thisperishedmin

    thisperishedmin Well-Known Member

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    The problem is that everyone wants to trade down if there isnt an elite talent on the board...and the only way to get a good trade down is if there IS an elite talent on the board.

    I'd love the scenario in OP - but realistically - it just seems too unlikely to all pan out. Would love to be wrong...
     
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  17. Conuficus

    Conuficus Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well away from here
    Is that Y.A. Tittle? If I'm wrong as soon as you say the name I'll know it. I've seen the picture before. IIRC that was his last game?
     
  18. Conuficus

    Conuficus Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well away from here
    It's not always about elite talent. It could just be that one team covets a player. That's all it requires, at least to initiate it.
     
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  19. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is how the ball gets rolling.
     
  20. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    I'd trade down to target Nelson Agholor, personally, if we're talking receivers. I like him a ton, and would prefer him or DGB over Parker and Strong.
     
  21. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    More picks in the premium rounds means added opportunities to get a premium player. Outside of the top 10-15 picks, the difference between prospect grades lessens as every pick passes by. And that strategy mitigates the impact of drafting busts. The one thing I've always loved about Jimmy Johnson as a GM was his understanding of that concept. The only other coach who follows the same model is Bill Belichick. While BB doesn't have the same track record in talent evaluation, I don't believe it's a coincidence that this has been the drafting strategy of choice for the last two NFL dynasties (Patriots and Cowboys), one of which has a decade + of dominance under it's belt.

    If Miami is sitting at 14 and there isn't a single player that stands out to them as a must have, I'm always in favor of moving back in round 1 and getting the opportunity for a 2-1 deal.
     
  22. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Right, but you added a caveat, which is in bold...

    I think that's an important distinction. People are kind of acting like "just trade back" regardless.
     
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  23. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Flipper Anderson has a son that was injured last year, before that he was listed as a quality WR. I would like to take a long look at him, perhaps as a FA
     
  24. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    yes.
     
  25. jim1

    jim1 New Member

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    I don't know what Rollins is doing in the Safety rankings at all- he's just learning CB, doesn't need a position switch and he has the speed, quicks, great feet and hips to become an excellent CB imo.
     

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