The Draft Day Disappointment Thread!

Because let's face facts, so many people have so many different preferences that someone is going to be disappointed by tomorrow! Let's just hope that it's few of us and not many.

Still, in an effort to mitigate the potential, oncoming disappointment, maybe we can review/rank possible picks and their probability so that we can approach whatever happens tonight with some perspective. Of course, some mind-boggling draft nightmare is still possible, no way to mitigate that. Let's just hope that doesn't happen.

Here's a selection of the most talked about, realistically possible choices for the Dolphins along with the chances most people think there are of these showing up. Then some thoughts on what those moves might mean.


Scenario 1 - Staying at #14

Possible picks:

1. Devante Parker - The most 'mock' picked selection for the Dolphins. Why? Because it's widely held that the Dolphins want a WR and he's going to be the best one available at 14.
2. Todd Gurley - Don't need to say much about this one. If he's available at 14 the only question is gambling on his health, present and future.
3. Trae Waynes - With all the sexy picks at WR and RB, CB seems to have received a little less commentary but nevertheless, many see it as a position of need and the two names showing up at 14 to fill that need are Waynes and Peters. Waynes is generally rated below Peters but Peters comes with some bad off-field baggage that the Phins might not want to touch. As for Waynes his talent and athleticism are rated highly, some saying he's the best CB in this draft.
4. Kevin Johnson - 3rd string CB after Waynes and Peters but his draft stock has been rising of late and some are saying he might turn out to be the dark horse best CB of this draft year. The questions are, do you take him at 14 over Waynes if he's available, and if you want to trade down might he be available a little later in the 1st round?
5. Melvin Gordon - Arguably the best RB investment in this draft, especially when considering Gurley's injury and the running style he employs that might well have gotten him injured, various times, in the first place. Generally doubtful he'll fall to 14.
6. Marcus Peters - Often touted as the best, all-round CB in this draft. Problem is he comes with serious off-field baggage. Someone will take him, he's got too much talent. Should it be the Phins, though?
7. Denzel Perryman - He was generally showing up in the 2nd round as a great linebacker pick, but lately he's popped up as being taken in the late first round. 14 might be a reach for Perryman, but LB is a need for the Dolphins. Having said that, depending upon how the Dolphins want to use the player (rushing the QB or covering) Gregory might be a better pick here (Fowler, Dupree & Beasley are likely to be gone by 14), or Dawson, Kendricks and Anthony as well. So this one comes down to a questions of how badly the Dolphins see the need of LB (since overall it looks like there will be better BPA talent available at 14) and if they do go for LB at 14, which player gives them the best fit.
8. La'el Collins - Best tackle in draft according to a good number of commentators. "NFL ready". "As safe a pick as you'll find". By all accounts a solid pick to fill the OG need the Phins have, ticking all the boxes, and maybe even becoming a future back up LT in case Albert finds injuries keep returning. No question about Collins being a quality pick, the only question is whether that OG need can be filled with a 'lesser' player and the #14 pick being used to plug a different hole with a really good player.
9. Randy Gregory - "Potential pro-bowl talent", is the sort of talk about Gregory, but so is "boom or bust". Talented pick but with risk associated. As with other LB's 14 might be seen as too high a pick. So it comes down to how much talent the Phins think they need at LB and that over and above talent elsewhere.
10. Brandon Scherff - Another 'safe' pick but not expected to fall to 14. Some have suggested it, though, and if he does show up at 14, this is again a question of how badly the Dolphins want high calibre talent plugging that OG hole (at the cost of adding talent elsewhere) or whether a lower pick will suffice.
11. Jaelen Strong - Big WR who hasn't entered most conversations about the top WR's Cooper, White and Parker. His stock has been rising a little too, especially where the Dolphins are concerned with some seeing him as being a good fit. He'll probably be around at 14, so if WR is what the Dolphins want to address with the best talent at 14 the questions will be, are there any better WR's available in place of Strong, and if not, are we okay with what could be considered a little bit of a reach here instead of trying to trade back and picking him up later?


Scenario 2 - Trading Up

Trading places is where things get more interesting, especially trading up. The Phins are in need of picks this year, we're not even in the third round, so trading up comes with a higher than usual price tag. If Tannebaum is feeling feisty he had better know exactly what he wants, and better get it right, because a trade up might well mean even fewer picks for the Dolphins. There are a few positions which are considered to be positions of good depth this draft so one would imagine that a trade up scenario would be to grab a massive talent and then maybe trade down with the 2nd round pick in order to multiply picks and take advantage of that supposed depth. I don't think you can make this trade up without either, really knowing what you've seen and what you like much lower down the draft, or else really, really loving a player higher up who'll make a massive difference, or just reckless abandon.

If a trade up happens, here are some of the likely candidates for trades and some of the temptations available at those spots.

Raiders at 3
Redskins at 4
Bears at 7
Falcons at 8
Rams at 10

Likelihoods vary with all of these, but they've been touted by various different commentators as open to trades.
Obviously a higher trade up means a higher cost and with Dion Jordan no longer available for use in a 'package deal' if that was the plan, a higher trade up might be too pricey an option for the Phins. Still, there's no telling what could happen.

The players available higher up don't need much saying about them, the main question will be whether or not a player picked here will be worth the cost.
If we take the main needs of the Dolphins being WR, CB, OG, LB, and then consider talent available later, I think realistic targets for a expensive trade up will be WR, LB and then additionally, DE (Jordan's gone, and with an aging Cam Wake the Dolphins might want to go for a strong edge rusher, and the best edge talent is going to go above 14.

Picks 3 and 4 stand a chance of yielding up Cooper or White at WR. It's also possible that Leonard Williams is available there, and as the player widely considered the best player in the draft and thus worth of a 3 or 4 pick. Fowler and Beasley will also be there to bring solid, edge rushing, LB talent.

Picks 7-10 will likely see the WR's off the board, Fowler too. Beasley might still be there, but this is more the position that Trae Waynes, Melvin Gordon, Brandon Scherff & Bud Dupree get ranked or are expected to go - so CB, OG or ILB/edge talent. It's possible the Phins could look at Gurley here is they really, really, like him and want him and don't want to risk losing the chance to get him, not sure you'd want to if Gordon was there, but that's just me.

Scenario 3 - Trading Down

Another interesting move and considered to be far more likely taking into account the Dolphins lack of picks.
There is a good chance that some solid talent is available at 14 and generally speaking, the best place to get pro-bowl, game changing talent is in the top 15 or higher, so taken from that perspective, the #14 pick shouldn't be traded away just for the sake of extra picks (especially since the draft is about finding talent - quality over quantity). Still, if the Phins just don't like anyone left at 14, trading down does offer advantages at the risk of losing out on someone they hope will be available elsewhere in the first.

Trying to predict second round picks is too big a job so, instead, here's a look at possible first round trade partners and some players who might be targets there.

Chargers at 17
Browns at 19
Eagles at 20
Cardinals at 24
Cowboys at 27

Of course, a lot depends upon who's available at 14 when the Dolphins can make the trade. That's a lot of variables.
Perhaps the biggest trae bait, though, is Gurley. If the Phins don't love him there's a good chance another team will jump at the chance to obtain him. That could yield some competition for the pick and thus a good return. Of course, the same is true for any team lower down,who could also use that bait. Then again, maybe 14 is around the sweet-spot for this since higher picking teams might have their sights set on maximising their high picks and not trading back with Gurley who generally hasn't been seen to be commanding a pick higher than around the 14 spot.

Who could the Dolphins land later on?

FS Demarius Randall - Stock has been rising fast. It's not CB but he could strengthen the Dolphin's secondary.
CB Byron Jones - Great combine performance and considered to be rounded enough to play multiple positions in the secondary.
SS - Landon Collins - More secondary talent, considered a safe prospect/solid pick, can possibly play dime LB.
CB - Jalen Collins - Often ranked around these numbers and as a top 5 CB. If he's here he could be a pick up for the CB spot.


ILB - Denzel Perryman - His stock has been rising so that instead of a purely 2nd round pick he's been showing up in the late first round.
This means that while he might well be available here, he might not fall back into the 2nd round. He's considered a strong fit for the Phins but it might be considered a reach to pick him up in the first. Do the Dolphins need/like him enough to take him here? If there's no-one else here who has unexpectedly fallen this far he might be the wise pick.
OLB - Randy Gregory - An odd one - Gregory is often ranked in the early teens but is often seen to fall to the end of the first round. He's talked about as 'boom-or-bust'. Talented edge rusher who might fill the LB need if the Dolphins like him and want to use the LB in that role.
LB - Shaq Thompson - Extremely versatile player and very athletic. Interesting because some seem him as second round only, other have him going mid first round. Seen as under-sized by a lot of people though. Known as well for a great work ethic and being a team player.

OT - DJ Humphries - Some call him the best LT in this draft, often seen as definite top 5 tackle. Doubtful the Phins wants to add LT depth in the first round but they could risk shoving him into the OG spot they need to fill.
OG - Laken Tomlinson - Generally seen as a second round talent, but might be a top 5 guard in the draft. Could fill the OG spot - but too much a reach here?

WR - Nelson Agholor - Along with Breshad Perriman Nelson often rounds out the rankings of the top 5 WR's in this draft. If Cooper, White and Parker are gone at 14, grabbing Agholor later on might not be a bad move.
WR - Breshad Perriman - As with Agholor Perriman is often rated within the top 5 WR's of the draft and might be a decent pick up here if the top 3 are all gone.
WR - Jalen Strong - Big WR mentioned earlier. It's possible he falls this far, and if so, might be a solid fit pick here.
WR - Philip Dorsett - Widely seen as a second round pick but often ranked in the early 30's so talent wise it might not be too much of a reach to grab the home-grown Miami speedster.
WR - Dorial Green-Beckham - Off-field issues, super-talented, thus often talked about as a 'boom-or-bust' prospect.

Obviously there are more and more options the further down the draft we go, but late in the first round, the sexy pics
seem to be WR or LB - with focus on Agholor, Perriman, Strong and/or Perryman & Thompson.

All in all, I think the highest chance for disappointment on draft day will be:

Trading Up and then getting few picks later on. Whoever we draft, if we move up, will hopefully be an exciting prospect but it will be the overall draft that might suffer and leave us disappointed.
Trading down and looking like we didn't get any great value/solid picks to make up for the talent loss at 14.
Staying put at 14 and then passing on solid BPA talent in favour of a position where there's less need or is just less talented.

So there you go - I've probably missed on a few positions/players but I can always edit if you recommend anything. Either way, there's lots of potential for hope and talent in this draft if you can keep an open perspective and especially since we (mostly) enjoyed Hickey's last outing. Tannenbaum looks to be a wheeler-dealer and might yield some extra excitement. Wherever they end up picking in the first round, we can just hope they won't end up whiffing on it.

Thoughts?

 

Thanks!

I also love/hate the draft. There might not be a bigger waste of time and productivity than all the pre-draft mocks and predictions. In a sense it's all utterly pointless because teams will pick who they pick and players will be who they will be and will suffer what they suffer.

On the other hand, it's a lot of fun to speculate and it's a good way to familiarise yourself with the players around the NFL as well as the state of one's own team.