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Tannehill extended through 2020

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Coloradotrv, May 18, 2015.

  1. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Let's say you calculate his YPA from the last 8 games of the season, figuring the first 8 games he was still getting acclimated to the new offense. His YPA would still have ranked 27th out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks.

    But that doesn't look good.

    So we've got to pick out those first three games and pretend there's some reason he was still getting acclimated in that 3rd game but not that 4th game, and that the variability in his results between the first three games and next three games wasn't simply inherent to the variability of those statistics in his career as a whole.

    Hi-ho, hi-ho, it's off to work we go...
     
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  2. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    So his YPA the last 8 games would only have ranked him 27th?

    So feasting on offenses in the middle upped his ypa but it dropped again later?

    Note these are the games where the deep pass was completely stripped.
     
  3. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Similar to those who run stock screens on historical data until they find one that is impeccable with no history of downturns even through recessions and stock market crashes.

    Implement it with real money and it fails within months. I've seen it happen with my old company.
     
  4. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Shhh! I'm working on a few of those as we speak. LOL.
     
  5. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Since Tannehill was with his first season with Lazor, there's seems to be a strange and unspoken logic here that Tannehill would have instead had a better - and more accountable - season with a fourth year QBing Mike Sherman's system.

    Does anyone actually believe that?
     
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  6. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The 2013 and 2014 records didn't change. In 2014, defense was worse yet the offense put up better scoring totals so I'd have to figure that Lazor was able to do something better...then again he had 2 first round offensive tackles as opposed to pure garbage as well as a very good slot receiver who caught 85 balls so that helps.

    It's hard to tell what Sherman's offnese might've produced had it had Albert, James and Landry to work with. The QB of the 2013 team was just as capable as the guy on the 2014 team in my estimation. Whatever Tannehill got better at in 2014, you'd have to figure he'd have done it for Sherman as well...

    ...unless you attribute Tannehill's progress to Lazor, in which case this thread might be buried under an avalanche of now unstable hypotheses. :)
     
  7. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Dolphins went from 19.8 points per game to 24.2 points per game. Which is a decent size jump.

    However we don't know the variables of this. Is it because of Lazor's offense or is it because Tannehill was more comfortable as a pro plus the fact that Wallace stepped up and had a much more productive 2014.
     
  8. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You're right and it's likely a mix. Keep in mind a point I've made over and over which is that Wallace's production was largely borrowed from other players. Most other guys scoring went down to accommodate Wallace being featured as he was.

    It's best not to isolate individual players when looking at the offense as a whole. There's no point in listing everyone's stats so don't even start, you know?
     
  9. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Only one who really went down was Clay and he was hurt most of the season.

    Hartline went 4 to 2 and Gibson went 3 to 1.

    I would say Landry had a bigger effect of taking from other players as he went from zero to 5 (zero being he was at LSU at the time)
     
  10. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Hartline dropped by 50%, Gibson by 66%, and you say that Clay was the only one to drop?
     
  11. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    By a significant amount. I don't get this, borrowed from someone else business. Tannehill is going to hit the open guy down his progression. Hartline ran a lot of routes, he just wasn't getting noticed and after watching film you'll know why.
     
  12. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    You are using statistics to make the drops look much better than they are.

    Dropping from 4 to 2 isn't really that big, especially since Hartline averages 2 touchdowns a season. So 2014 was in line with his average.

    Gibson went from 3 touchdowns to 1. He played less than half the season. Wallace didn't borrow from him.

    Charles Clay went from 6 touchdowns to 3. Since in the previous two seasons he had a total of 5 touchdowns with the 34 receptions, showing that if he had more receptions, he should get more touchdowns (or at least make the argument), Clay is the only one I would say actually took a dip.
     
  13. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Whatever, it's semantics. Wallace got tds that others would normally get. He got tds that he more than likely wouldn't have got this year. Other receivers saw a significant drop, all total, than the year before, while Wallace saw a significant increase. I'll give you Gibson, but a healthy Gibson probably gets some of those tds back from Wallace, so Wallace would have dropped some.
     
  14. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm with res on this one.

    Easiest way to prove it is just to show that Tannehill went from 3913 yards to 4045 yards so whatever gains someone had in yardage, someone else obviously lost 'em. Those numbers are nearly identical.

    In TDs Tanehill improved by 3. It obviously doesn't matter who caught the TDs if you're talking net totals. Someone caught it and someone didn't. End of story.

    If you are really curious, Landry went up 5 and Wallace went up 5, Hartline went down 2, Gibson went down 2, and Clay went down 3, Sims went up 1, Miller went up 1, Thomas went down 2 and Matthews didn't go up or down.

    If you dig deeper you see that Clay missing time early in the season had a direct correlation with Wallace scoring most of his TDs during that period. My assumption was that Lazor probably featured Wallace a bit more during that early stretch because he didn't have his anticipated complement of weapons as well as for the fact he probably wanted to see exactly what he had in Wallace. That's what I'd do. The stats bear that out. Wallace had a ton of targets during those first few weeks.
     
  15. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Gibson was injured in 2013.
     
  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Wallace's reception totals are almost exactly split, though, for games 1-8 and 10-16.
     
  17. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    From Cincyjungle

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    [TD="width: 72"]Andy Dalton[/TD]
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    80​
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    [TD="width: 78"]
    455​
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    [TD="width: 72"]Ryan Tannehill[/TD]
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    6 years, $97M, $45M guaranteed​
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    Lots of wiggle room in the T17 contract, we've seen, so that they can get out in two. Haven't seen full details of Cam's yet.

    Thoughts?
     
  18. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I say this half-joking but maybe Ryan Tannehill could learn a little from Cam Newton in being a bit cockier. I mean, one thing missing seems to be attitude. I think RT plays the position a little bland.

    I don't care if his completion percentage goes down a few digits or if he throws a couple more picks. What I want to see from Tannehill is that he's THE guy which involves using his legs, throwing deeper, blah, blah, blah.

    To me, it seems like some of what Tannehill doesn't do is sort of a reflection of his general nature. I'd like to see him be a little aggressive this year and take charge of things. Hopefully he's learned how to do that in his first 3 years.

    Enough of these offensive players are young that RT shouldn't feel subordinate to anyone.

    Maybe sticking a few million more bucks in RT's pocket isn't really a bad thing for the kid's confidence.
     
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  19. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Well-Known Member

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    Sure, but QBs can't just throw bc they want to or bc they got a new contract. Gotta have pass protection that allows routes to develop, receivers to run those routes and an OC to make the necessary calls.
     
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  20. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    yeah he needs to get in some dudes asses.
     
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  21. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    To be honest I don't care how loud or yappy a QB is. Different people have different leadership styles, and some people just aren't braggarts.
    I like that RT is professional and tough. It means his team mates listen when he speaks because they know that he knows his stuff.
    I like that RT has some degree of introspection. It means that when a f$€? up happens he doesn't blame others first, but looks to see if he was at fault. QBs that always snap at their teammates lose respect if they can't admit their own faults.

    I'm really not seeing a leadership void by RT. So I'm going to be much happier seeing his ypa go uo by a yard than I would be to see him jawing more at his teammates but not improving his game.
     
  22. thisperishedmin

    thisperishedmin Well-Known Member

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    DJ - You're not even a little subtle anymore. Come on man :tongue2:
     

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