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Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill is a dark horse in the NFL

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Sceeto, Jul 2, 2015.

  1. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    My take is that Ryan is an innately accurate qb..he needs to slow down and see stuff better on the deeper stuff, also now needs to fine tune his innate accuracy to a point where he's leading the receiver correctly at a higher rate, but those things will improve..
     
  2. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    So nfl.com saying his average pass yardage was like 6.8 yards or whatever it was (which means all things considered with passes) and i don't know what that stat means? Because i almost said that verbatim, btw.

    Also, cute to disregard my 2nd paragraph which is my real stance here. Its not apples to oranges even if youd like it to be. Hmm. I wonder why they even bother keeping team/franchise records in the first place. Surely teams and the NFL know that everything accomplished in modern day NFL is meaningless, right? :rolleyes:
    He is currently the best Miami Dolphin at a certain stat (completions), ever. Period. It doesn't matter how he got there. NO ONE sees the invisible asterisk there aside from people like you and stringer.

    2 more questions:

    1. Tannehills yardage strictly from YAC is less than half of his total yardage, So how exactly does this prove he got 4000 yards and broke a HOFers completion record based solely on short throws / yac again?

    2. The entire league average of passing from yac as you said is anywhere from 2.62 to 4.67 which puts tannehill almost exactly at the median, average in the league, Not extremely high or low. Again, how is this a knock on him or his franchise record at all???? The franchise record that is exclusive only to dolphins and their QBs? FFS, he is ranked #11 out of 33 on the stat list you used titled "Quarterback Air Yards Leaders"
     
  3. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Tammy Fkn Brady made a LIVING off short passes last year...and won the SB...but he's elite and Tanny's average, so there you have it.
     
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  4. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    Pretty much. Trying to write off Tannehill breaking a franchise record of an all time great HOFer because of the year we are in or because of the predesigned plays he is told to run that are designed for YAC, is by all accounts, a joke. Especially considering the current day 'meta' of todays NFL is exactly that.
     
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  5. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    Yep. Everytime the short passing argument comes up as if its a negative on Tannehill and then Tom brady is mentioned, the discussion sort of stops and that side gets pretty silent. Bradys entire career has revolved around extremely short, timing passes.
     
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  6. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah, because you don't know what that stat means. His ypa is 6.9. Meaning, the team gained 6.9 yards for all attempts thrown by Tannehill. that includes incompletions, and yac. That does not mean his passes traveled an average of 6.9 yards.

    tannehill has broken several of Marino's records and nobody is batting an eye. Tannehill beat Dan's record for the most passing yards by a Miami rookie. Ryan owns the record for most passing yards in a single game by a Miami rookie. and it's all "meh" because of how inflated passing is now. Marino's first 3 seasons were the best of ALL TIME, by any QB ever.
     
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  7. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I would consider breaking most any positive passing record by Marino as impressive. I don't understand how anybody wouldn't? It would seem to me that anybody that didn't probably doesn't have realistic expectations.
     
  8. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    @bold you obviously have no clue what i'm saying, because (for the third time) I said the 6.9 meant ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. I can copy paste it a few times if it will clarify. All things considered, as in, incompletions and yac, like you just said.

    Please address the other 2 questions.
     
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  9. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    Thank you. This is pretty much how I feel, The year and play calls shouldn't make a lick of difference for a TEAMS FRANCHISE RECORD. It's sad to think otherwise, really.
     
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  10. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    What breaking the season record for completions basically means is that we have the best QB we've ever had since Marino, and people keep downplaying his production... Tannehill just keeps getting better and better every season, breaks season records, which IMO, SHOULD be rejoiced, and yet there are stilll people who refuse to give him the credit.

    Cue Rodney Dangerfield...
     
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  11. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Brady has been brought up many times and it has been debated down.

    Brady was throwing short, timed passes to Randy Moss in 2007??? really? Tom Brady has done whatever it is Belichick has asked him to do, and he's done it to the tune of dominating the NFL over 15 years or whatever. The dink and dunk was required of Tom after losing Hernandez and any semblance of a deep wide out.

    If Ryan Tannehill dinked and dunked to an 8.6 ypa. 5,200 yards, 65% accuracy like Brady did in 2011 we'd all be humping Tannehill posters.
     
  12. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    Yep, Tom Brady Never dinks and dunks, only rarely when the circumstance is needed, like it hasn't literally been his MO for almost his entire pro career. Funny how you quote a season with Randy Moss as if that proves your point. You have Randy Moss and you aren't going to throw deep to him? Lololol. that's a debate I'm not getting into because it's even more ridiculous than this one.


    Again:

    1. Tannehills yardage strictly from YAC is less than half of his total yardage, So how exactly does this prove he got 4000 yards and broke a HOFers completion record based solely on short throws / yac again?

    2. The entire league average of passing from yac as you said is anywhere from 2.62 to 4.67 which puts tannehill almost exactly at the median, average in the league, Not extremely high or low. Again, how is this a knock on him or his franchise record at all???? The franchise record that is exclusive only to dolphins and their QBs? FFS, he is ranked #11 out of 33 on the stat list you used titled "Quarterback Air Yards Leaders"
     
  13. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    Tom Brady's YPA in his first three seasons as a starter (4 seasons overall) was as follows: 6.9, 6.3, 6.9.. which averages to a 6.7 YPA.

    Ryan Tannehill's?

    6.8, 6.7, 6.9, which averages to... 6.8 YPA.

    No, the argument has NOT been shot down, because it is a very fair comparison in those first three seasons in terms of YPA.

    What you're basically doing there is taking a future Hall of Famer's BEST season statistically (which happens to be his 12th season in the league) and comparing it to Ryan Tannehill's 3rd season in attempt to make it look much worse than it is, that's pretty absurd if you ask me.
     
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  14. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    This is an example of what I mean by unrealistic expectations. Tom Brady is in the argument for the best QB of all time. Tannehill's YPA his first three years starting was better than Brady's yet some are blasting him for that stat. No, the standard for Tannehill is that in his first three seasons, despite everybody acknowledging he was coming in very raw, he has to be as good as Brady was in his best passing season of his career. How is that realistic?
     
  15. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I completely agree...notice I never said anything about arm strength making the QB.
     
  16. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Everyone considers it impressive.

    To say there is anyone here that doesn't is a horrible misinterpretation of the question "what does it mean to have a high completion percentage?"

    We should always ask what a stat is telling us.


    Rather than try and answer that question productively, it looks from my vantage point like there are several people who just want to argue on a personal level.


    Why does the QB's name even matter? It could be John Elway or Johnny Unitas or Ryan Tannehilll...it's a generally question--what can you learn about a QB by looking at his completion percentage, particularly on a 1-year basis?


    Rather than arguing and getting personally offended, why don't people just try and answer that question?


    It was posed, we should try and answer it rather than argue pointlessly. I don't see the need for that.
     
  17. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    No. They don't. That's why this started?
     
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  18. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm pretty sure you started in with the snarky commentary right after I posted. ;)

    I see it devolved badly.


    If you read my first post and thought it was a slam on RT17, you misread it, I'm sorry.
     
  19. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Dan had such a great running game that breaking one of his passing records doesn't really mean anything.
     
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  20. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    I didn't even read your first post, so no. So idk what you're talking about.

    What you said, which i bolded:

    Which, on this site, is blatantly false, and you can use this very thread as evidence? Although you really don't need to, because there is evidence of the contrary just polluting this board.

    The entire back and forth about the relevance of his completion percentage and his franchise record was literally started because 2 people in this thread decided to talk about how the stat and his accomplishment are irrelevant in 'todays' nfl, when comparing him to someone like Marino from 20-30 years ago. It's absurd and makes even less sense because we are talking about a TEAMS franchise record.... as in exclusive to only the dolphins QBs???......It's impressive to say the least, and beyond foolish to think otherwise, which some do. I can quote the posts if you'd like.
     
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  21. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    That's not true. The response that kicked this off was that it "wasn't even relevant" much less impressive.
     
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  22. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    There was a whole page of posts before you even entered the thread. Then you seem to have decided that the question should change.
     
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  23. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Because the rules and the game are very different than they were when Marino played.
     
  24. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Of course the rules evolved, but Marino was still one of the greatest and most prolific passers in history. When people surpass his numbers it's celebrated even if people put the accomplishment in perspective to the rule changes. To pretend that breaking Marino's passing records isn't an impressive accomplishment is just ridiculous.
     
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  25. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    If it were that easy to break Marino's record, one of the 14-odd QB's who started for the Dolphins between Marino and now would have done it before Tannehill. Point is, it's not as easy as people are making it out to be.
     
  26. It was a solid milestone for Tanny to reach. It is conformation that he is gradually growing into his role. He needs more Ws to go with it. What it does show is that he is finding an open receiver and executing his passes. What I would to see him improve on is leading hie man into open spaces. I think if he placed the ball better he could improve on his receivers yac.
     
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  27. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I want people to stop kidding around and start answering the meaningful questions instead of wasting their Thursday afternoon arguing pointlessly, don't you? I think you'd agree with me that a stat without context can't teach you anything. If the goal in using stats is to learn, we must therefore contextualize them.

    So what is it that we learn from RT17's 2014 completion percentage? Keep in mind that we're isolating 1 year out of 3--that's an additional topic.

    In my experience, records can be good, bad or even darn near meaningless. We know that in this case it's not a bad thing, but is it good or meaningless? That's what has yet to be argued convincingly one way or the other. In fact, what are we even trying to say about RT17 when we talk about his 2014 completion percentage? That's one thing I would like people to be more explicit about.

    Does that stat speak to accuracy? Short or long? Does it speak to decision making? Does it speak to understanding the offense? My point is that no one is doing their due-diligence and chasing down that rabbit.

    What I find strange is that just posing that question seems to annoy several posters: Fin D, dc, and possibly yourself. To me, that is a strange response. No one here needs to defend RT17, we're all fans of his. What we surely all want is honest analysis though...right?

    So let's make sure that we're not critical or defensive. Let's come up with a real measure of how important that stat is.

    You're implying that the stat is meaningful by associating RT17 with the overall greatness of Marino. I understand your point, BUT you still haven't shown directly whether completion percentage is critical or somewhat mundane in evaluating QBs.

    The implication of your statement is that RT17 is really good for having accomplished this task. Can you show that to be true? Right now, it's an unproven hypothesis and so I don't see the need for anyone to be upset with anyone else.




    To me, this should be a VERY, VERY interesting (and quite civil) topic for everyone to explore. After all, this could be an important measuring stick for our QB. We want the truth more than anything else. The truth might be that completion percentage doesn't mean anything unless a QB is throwing beyond 7.4 ypa...who knows?

    As you can imagine, this is an infinitely interesting and infinitely complex topic. The only guy who should be shot dead is the guy who's not willing to ask questions and who criticizes those who do.
     
  28. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    You may want to discuss something and it may even be a a valid discussion, but coming into an ongoing thread about something else and chastising people for not discussing your topic is not the way to go about it.

    And my point is that completing passes is better than not completing passes. Marino did that more often than anybody else in franchise history. Now Tannehill has broken his record and that is in and of itself an impressive accomplishment. I never discussed completion percentage. If you want to discuss completion percentage and it's value as a stat go ahead and start a thread and discuss it to your heart's content.
     
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  29. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I said Brady 2014....and he has had other years, years in which he didn't have arguable GOAT targets, where he did the same...and that's always OK for Brady, and it's always the case of, "he's making garbage receivers look good," but it's a negative for RT.

    Cracks me up how it's always a REASON why Brady is so awesome...but also a reason RT's so average.

    Give RT Gronk and Moss...
     
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  30. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I know you did. That's why I didn't quote you (should be pretty obvious). I suggest you go back, and look at who I quoted and what I quoted ;)

    Brady has done it all. Dink and dunk, deep to Randy, intermediate heavy to Gronk and Hernandez. He's shown he can throw the ball all around the field.

    If Tanny dinked and dunked like Joe Montana or Tom Brady did last year we'd be singing a different tune.

    Tanny showed he is a master of less than 9 yard pass. Sue us for wanting more. WE WANT MORE. He's a rising QB that so far has risen to about the middle of the pack objectively.

    On a related note, anyone know why NFL.com has us passing for 3,729 yards total while Tanny passed for over 4k?

    http://www.nfl.com/teams/miamidolphins/statistics?team=MIA

    what are they subtracting?
     
  31. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Breaking that particular passing record is why it's just a "meh." Marino owned almost all major passing records for a while. And when people pass it, it's celebrated. When you're the 29th person to pass it, it's a nice footnote which is what it is here. A footnote. Mountain out of a molehill on both sides I guess.
     
  32. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    It's apples to oranges.

    Dan Marino is likely the most prolific Passer in NFL history. He has a lifetime rating of 86. The average in the NFL in 2014 was 89. Marino had a rating higher than 89 only 5 of the 17 years he played.


    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk
     
  33. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    So he's terrible, then.
     
  34. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Have you seen the list above Tannehill?

    Drew Brees
    Tony Romo
    Matthew Stafford
    Rich Gannon
    Matt Ryan
    Ben Roethlisberger
    Warren Moon
    Kurt Warner
    Drew Bledsoe
    Tom Brady
    Matt Schaub
    Peyton Manning

    It's made up of 12 players, half of which are in or very likely to make it to the HOF. And another 3 or 4 that have arguments or a shot since, they're still young. That's more than just a footnote. It's the kind of thing that you'd want a promising young QB to achieve. And it's even more relevant here since he's the first Dolphin to do it. If I could have guaranteed people before his draft that Tannehill would accomplish this feat in three years every single person would have been ecstatic with the pick. They would have said that we've finally found our QB. But now you're calling it a footnote. :no: Some people will just never be happy. Look at your own earlier post complaining about Tannehill's YPA. By your example it's reasonable to believe that if you were a Pat's fan you would have been even more disappointed with Brady's YPA his first 4 seasons (3 starting) since it was lower. Of course Brady only turned into arguably the best QB of all-time (not IMO but he's clearly in the discussion). In retrospect such criticism of Brady would be ridiculous. Obviously we don't know how Tannehill will turn out, but we know that he's improved every year and is now achieving some impressive milestones. If you can't see how ignoring or minimizing every positive and focusing on every negative about Tannehill is similar than I can't help you.
     
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  35. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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    I honestly don't think that that particular 'record' is impressive. I'm just being honest, not pretending anything.

    And just to be on the record here, I'm a huge fan of Ryan Tannehill. I was extremely happy with the team's decision to extend him, as I believe that he is part of the solution for this team. I think he is climbing toward greatness. I am 100% drinking the Kool-Aid.

    But most completions in a season? When your offense is built around very quick, short passes and not a lot of balance in the play-calling, that does not 'impress' me. What impresses me a lot more is the fact that he has somehow started every game for this team in three years, despite two years of the worst garbage offensive line play I've ever seen from this franchise and some of the most vicious beating I've ever seen a man take over a period of time, ever. What impresses me is that we somehow won 8 games the last two years despite the supporting cast he's had on offense and the putrid play of the defense down the stretches.
     
  36. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    What Ryan has done is good and like someone said, Id rather he complete a pass than not. But ALL passing stats are inflated these days....Dan was the only QB for how long to throw for 5k yards?? Now in this era we have a handfull...does that mean it isnt relevant? No, but if you understand how the game has changed you would understand why 5k yards doesnt mean what it did in 1984.

    Disclaimer: This post is in no way shape or form a slight to Ryan and his forum followers, it is an opinion of the game of footballs evolution. Thank you.
     
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  37. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I find myself agreeing and disagreeing with both sides of the argument here. On one hand, there should be no question the game is different today and thus you need some way of quantifying how much to adjust stats today with stats of decades past. On the other hand, I think an adjustment of the sort suggested earlier - compare performance relative to peers in the same year - underestimates Tannehill's performance.

    One way of seeing this is to look at average passing yards per game by the average offense in each year, say from 1980 to today. Actually, it should start from 1978 because that's when the most important rule change occurred: illegal contact - can't interfere with a receiver past 5 yards of scrimmage. Marino himself was a major beneficiary of this.

    Either way, starting from 1980, we basically see that the average passing yards per game per team was 203.6 from 1980-1989, 204.3 from 1990-1999, and 208.8 from 2000-2009. So it's mostly stable with a slight uptick in the 2000's. Then it's interesting. From 2010-2014 the average is 231 yards passing per game per team!

    First question is whether one should even break it up by decade. Well, it does make sense group 1980-2003 together because 2004 saw the next major rule "change" (more of an change of emphasis in calling defensive holding and illegal contact after what the Cheatriots did in that playoff game against the Colts the year before). So, grouping it that way, you could say separate 1980-2003 from 2004-2014. The problem is that there is still a huge difference from 2004-2009 vs. 2010-2014. For 2004-2009 the average is 210.4, which is clearly far different from the 231 in 2004-2014.

    OK, so point is: the rule change in 2004 caused average passing yards per game (per team) to go from 204.4 in the 1980-2003 period to 210.4 in the 2004-2009 period. That's a 3% difference. Contrast that with the average being 152.5 from 1970-1977 (before illegal contact) to 200+ afterwards. Illegal contact caused a 30%+ increase in average passing yards per game!

    The reason I point this out is: there is no obvious rule change since 2004 helping the passing game as important as the one in 2004. That is, I see no way to explain the huge jump from 210.4 to 231 from 2004-2009 to 2010-2014 by rule changes alone (that's a 10% jump).

    The only way that jump is explainable IMO is that the players were just better on average (in whatever system they were in). Indeed, I think you can make the argument that in the past 5 years where we saw Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Brees at their best + a bunch of 2nd tier vet QB's that are pretty good themselves + draft picks like Luck, RW, RG3, Newton and even Tannehill constitute a crop of QB talent like the NFL has NEVER seen before playing at the same time.

    So, the way I see it is this. You can adjust the stats of current QB's downward by maybe 5% to make it comparable to those in the 1980-2003 period. But more than that and I think you are underestimating the QB talent that exists today. In that sense, what Tannehill is doing is still impressive even after adjustment.

    Of course, this is totally different than asking the question of how "great" a QB is just by the stats alone. There you do need to consider what was expected that the time.
     
  38. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If QBs of today are indeed more capable or there exist a greater number of capable QBs, then QB ability has simply gone down in value. It follows then that in order to achieve the same overall probability of success relative to your peers, you'd need to raise our expectations and be more critical of these modern QBs. For example, if Marino accomplished a certain feat and it helped make him the 3rd most capable QB in the league and now we have RT17 accomplishing that same feat but it only helped to carry him towards being the 9th most capable QB in the league, we're still left with a lesser QB relative to the competition.

    For what it's worth, I have no doubt modern QBs are coming into the league far more prepared than ever before. I also suspect that receiving their training earlier and earlier is allowing a greater number of QBs to develop an ability to reach "serviceable" levels in both the college and professional ranks.


    However, the bigger point is that we need to be careful about understanding stats. Even more important than shear quantity in the data, is making sure that the premise of the arguement--or what's being implied--makes sense. I know I'm not alone in saying that we as contributors have reached a bit of an impass in terms of quantifying RT17 relative to his competition. He'll be top-10 in one stats, middle of the road in another and still bottom-10 another. The real problem we all need to take steps towards figuring out is in regards to what those various stats mean.

    Right now, people like DJ are doing more in just coming out and saying RT needs to do this or that to improve. It's fine to rank Tannehill statistically. We can use 1,000 metrics or stats to do that over and over. The real question is, what can we say definitively he really needs to do better?

    Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford have been two of the best QBs in terms of overall yardage in recent years, but very few fans here speak glowingly of those QBs. I have a feeling that these stats like yardage, completion percentage, YPA, INTs, etc. mean next to nothing on their own.

    Even basic attempts to weight general stats and bring them together seem, at least in some way, to speak more fairly as though errors are canceling themselves out.
     
  39. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    One side says the record is nice and encouraging. That side is not saying more than that.

    The other side says that record means nothing and its not encouraging and saying it is encouraging is misleading.

    Which side is being sensitive and which side is being rational?
     
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  40. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You are right about Brady...He will never be goat to me because of that...Tannehill could use Gronk...but he does not need Moss..Lol....besides, he has Parker now. Also, can't we all just get along?...by now, everyone should be used to the fact that Tannehill IS our QB now and the future and if he breaks one of Marino's records, then I salute him. He had to grow on me but I just like his tenacity and he makes improvements every year..I look forward to Tannehill taking us to the Lombardi.
     

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