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Where does Tannehill rank among quarterbacks today?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by The Sportz Guy, Jul 11, 2015.

  1. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    I have him at 13 currently and expect him to be somewhere between 7 and 10 after this season..
     
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  2. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    If you cant see that a teams opponents are tougher in the playoffs than in the regular season then i cant help you.
     
  3. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Right now, regular season for the last two season the stats have Ryan over Flacco...now since Tannehill has never been to the playoffs, how does one compare....I have an idea how we can come up with an estimate for Tannehill post season...since the last two years Ryan has been > Flacco we can take Flacco's post season numbers and come up with the percentage that he improves in said playoffs and apply that to Tannehill > Flacco numbers to get Ryan's estimated numbers for playoffs and we will still get Tannehill > Flacco for the last two years imho.
     
  4. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    senses are heightened, focus is sharper, more at stake, livelihood, fame, peace of mind, human nature, not letting down teammates, failure, embarrassment..all reasons to believe that clutch exists imo
     
  5. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    when theres more at stake, adrenaline is heightened..people react to that differently..

    when i know that I've seen a player perform at a certain level under certain conditions, i can count on that repeating itself at much better odds [pretty sure there is some phrase out there that mimics that point}..that means i can move on from that position and look elsewhere to improve, until I see it under certain conditions, it is not settled..

    If you had to win one game next year of importance, and your telling me you would take ryan over a proven flacco then id call you a hardcore dolphin fan, thats why I don't think theres any logic to putting ryan in front of flacco, and thats what a true ranking order should be based on..now if your making a ranking and your starting a franchise and you factor in age and all that, and you want ryan then thats your evaluation big pic and that fine, thats who you think will wind up being the better qb long term.
     
  6. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    The standard thing is to use population stats (or estimates thereof) when you don't know anything about an individual. So, the standard thing would be to look at how on average regular season stats for QB's compare to their post-season stats and apply that to Tannehill.

    Only way to justify adjusting Tannehill's stats based on what Flacco did is to have an independent argument for why Tannehill should behave more similarly to Flacco than to any other QB, specifically with respect to how his regular season stats should change in the post-season. Not sure anyone has a good argument there.
     
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  7. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah, the current state of measurement is such that they can't demonstrate its existence in any unambiguous way (as I pointed out in response to rafael in post #150), but most players believe it exists and I'm more inclined to believe this is a case where we just can't measure it at the moment, rather than it not existing. But.. one does need the evidence.
     
  8. JPPT1974

    JPPT1974 2022 Mother's Day and May Flowers!

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    He seems to improve each and every single season he is in the league. Will be better in 2015! Going to elite range.
     
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  9. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I was always praised for being "clutch". It was even a source of pride. But reality is that I was just somebody who had practiced enough that in the game, in the moment none of those other things (senses are heightened, focus is sharper, more at stake, livelihood, fame, peace of mind, human nature, not letting down teammates, failure, embarrassment) entered my mind. It was all instincts and muscle memory.
     
  10. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I agree that the level of opposition is better, but it's also arguable that a QB that generally performs around the same level as Tannehill only got there b/c he had a better supporting cast and circumstances.
     
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  11. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    True, but that has no bearing on whether one should weight the playoffs more. Tougher opposition is a reason to weight the playoffs more no matter the supporting cast (unless the supporting cast changes in the playoffs).
     
  12. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    But then we get back to the subjective part. When I watched Flacco succeed in the playoffs, I didn't see him perform better. I saw his supporting cast make more plays. Maybe the law of averages just caught up and they were playing at their level. Whatever the reason I don't see any logic to value the smaller sample size more when the individual performance is basically the same.
     
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  13. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    thats how you dealt with the stress of the moment, very well, kept yourself calm and cool..some players don't and our prone to mistakes because the game does have a mental side that comes into play, when things are hectic it requires more focus and an ability to play calm, some get flustered..so to me because I've seen Flacco perform consistently well in the playoffs, I will take that chance on him and KNOW what I'm going to get..

    This comes down to playmaking Rafs, I could show you a couple dozen individual plays that Flacco has done in playoff time that were all him, all him sensing, escaping and pinpointing, these are plays that we haven't seen our qb do with any semblance of consistency, so in this particular discussion to say someone who hasn't make those type of individual plays over someone who has I say what the heck are you basing your projection on then?
     
  14. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    If the reason for weighting playoffs more is tougher opposition, then that's independent of sample size. All (small) sample size does is add uncertainty to the estimate, but the weights are still greater (in this case).

    How you subjectively see things adds another element and I can't comment on that, but when you have objective evidence (stats), then it's relatively straightforward to assign both the weights and reliabilities (inverse of uncertainties) to the stats. Of course, we don't know what those weights (due to strength of opposition) are.. maybe they're small, maybe they're large..
     
  15. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    if someones qbr and everything goes up in the playoffs didn't he do that against playoff teams? of course right, which means the level of competition is better than the regular season, in the regular season your facing garbage some games to get those stats up..so imo, I simply take out the larger sample size that is the regular season when I have enough of a sample size in the postseason and judge from there, 10 games is enough, thats who he is..
     
  16. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    You do that b/c you've done the activity so many times that instinct and muscle memory take over. When stuff is happening fast you don't have time to make yourself calm. You don't have time to think. You just react.

    That's why I keep saying that experience matters. It's why Rodgers looked so robotic early on that the Packers went and drafted another QB high when he was due to start. And BTW Flacco wasn't doing much escaping his first few years either. I liked Flacco and talked him up before that draft, but the criticism was that he wasn't mobile enough. He flashed some play-making early on (inconsistently) but I would say it was less than Tannehill has thus far.
     
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  17. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    There is one stat that is a pretty accurate "elite QB" test and Flacco passes. Its the "final margin" 15+ points split. Most if not all elite QBs have a good record in that split and Flacco is no exception with a 75% win percentage. And like other elite QBs Flacco's rating ascends and is at its highest in that split. Here are some other examples:

    [TABLE="width: 500"]
    [TR]
    [TD] [TABLE]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66"][/TD]
    [TD="class: xl70, colspan: 2, align: center"]Tannehill[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl70, colspan: 2, align: center"]Wilson[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl71, colspan: 2, align: center"]Brady[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl71, colspan: 2, align: center"]Rodgers[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl71, width: 128, colspan: 2, align: center"]Manning[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl71, width: 128, colspan: 2, align: center"]Brees[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl71, width: 128, colspan: 2, align: center"]Bradford[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 105"]Split[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 113"]Value[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl70"]Win %[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 64"]Rate[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl70"]Win %[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 64"]Rate[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl70"]Win %[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 64"]Rate[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl70"]Win %[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 64"]Rate[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl70"]Win %[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 64"]Rate[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl70"]Win %[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 64"]Rate[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl70"]Win %[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 64"]Rate[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 105"]Final Margin[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 113"]0-7 points[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl72"]47.8%[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 64"]88.8[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl72"]54.2%[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 64"]87.5[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl72"]69.9%[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 64"]88[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl72"]51.1%[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 64"]98.8[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl72"]64.5%[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 64"]92[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl72"]52.2%[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 64"]92.2[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl72"]42.1%[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 64"]84.6[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 105"][/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 113"]8-14 points[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl72"]60.0%[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 64"]81.8[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl72"]85.7%[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 64"]106.7[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl72"]72.9%[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 64"]87.2[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl72"]71.4%[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 64"]101[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl72"]69.0%[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 64"]95.6[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl72"]47.5%[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 64"]82.3[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl72"]53.8%[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 64"]80.6[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 105"][/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 113"]15+ points[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl72"]40.0%[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 64"]77.9[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl72"]100.0%[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 64"]114.4[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl72"]85.9%[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 64"]111[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl72"]81.1%[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 64"]120.8[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl72"]77.3%[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 64"]106.3[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl72"]69.9%[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 64"]107.7[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl72"]18.8%[/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 64"]71.4[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    [/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
     
  18. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You really like to compare everyone to Tannehill..usually from the sound of your posts, somebody new would think you had Tannehill rated around.....32nd in the league lol.
     
  19. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Deej, do you have those 24 links? Maybe it will help me see what I am missing. Thanks.
     
  20. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    How exactly do you think teams get to the post season? You're aware we played the Pats twice in the regular season for example? Were they magically tougher after the end of season?
     
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  21. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    have you been reading this thread, its a freakin comparison thread that I did NOT start, who the hell do you think is being compared, some are saying ryan should be ranked higher, I'm disagreeing because I have flacco as a very good qb who's accomplished, {so that means its not a knock on tannehill because of how highly I think of flacco...get it..jesus} for the hundreth time, stop making it personal with me, and debate the freakin subject that everyone else is debating
     
  22. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    go watch film.
     
  23. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    the criticism of flacco not being mobile enough were from people who didn't watch enough film of him in colllege, its still annoying to watch his games and hear, ''that joe flacco, he has such underrated mobility''...its a joke Rafs, he had it all back in college.
     
  24. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah and he had a 79 rating the first game, and 73 rating the second game.

    In the playoffs you don't get to feast on teams like the Raiders, Bears, Chargers, Bills, Vikings. His one outstanding game against a playoff team was the Broncos.

    And Ravens rating wise, but they scored 13 points.
     
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  25. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    LOL...way to cherry-pick.

    When the rating is bad, call it bad and end of story (regardless if they put up good points and beat the World Champs).

    Then when the rating's good, downplay it.

    But keep in mind...rating is a team stat...
     
  26. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    http://sprtrprt.sportsblog.com/posts/2818263/the-case-for-ryan-tannehill.html

    very good exciting article.

    ...
     
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  27. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    How did I cherry pick? I was replying to a post picking out two games. Yes rating is a team stat. That's why it's called Team rating oh wait, it's called quarterback rating.

    Two games with good ratings against two playoff teams all year. One of them we scored 13 points. The general point is, when it comes to the playoffs, you're playing le creme de la creme. Generally numbers suffer a little. Tannehill is no exception.

    Every single stat in all of Football is a team rating. Yards per carry, depends on line and blocking and is affected by the team's passing game. Ypc by a receiver depends on the blocking, field position and QB. yada yada yada, so lets not use any stat ever, for any position player, ever. That's what you're implying.
     
  28. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Stop. These facts are going to make him change his argument. (Again)
     
  29. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'll take issue with one stat:
    Tannehill's air yards traveled per pass was either 2nd to last, or very close to it. So while he did have 9th most attempts, most were very close to the LOS or behind it.
     
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  30. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    One thing I see with Ryan is...while he has maybe two games to his career where I would say he was flat out balling...I cant really remember a game outaide of his first in Houston where he was horriblee. Hes never really had that ...another pick and he sits kind of game.
     
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  31. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Ehhh...I dunnoh man, we can actually use the eyeball test here since most of us actually watched every single snap he had multiple times. Its not like we ran a ton of bubble screens...his sweet spot seemed to be in the 8 to 12 yard range.
     
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  32. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Ryan may very well surpass a guy like Flacco this season. But imo it is silly to say he is better now. Guys like Stafford make plays and keep things alive. I need to see more of that this year
     
  33. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well that's what I mean by very close. 6-12 yards or so lol. Look at it this way. Of all of Landry's receptions, they were about 3.5 yards from the LOS or so.
     
  34. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You made the statement..I thought you might have the links....I am sorry....and I am not making it personal..I thought you knew my posts well enough by now to know when I am kidding with you and when I am not. I guess I need to start adding the emoticons again...lol
     
  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I don't see the short passes as a knock on Tannehill. It's not like he was sitting back in a pocket with all day to throw, and just dumping it off. He was under pressure. A lot. I fully expect his air yards to increase if the line plays even average football.
     
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  36. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He played pretty good against Green Bay as well..We should have had that victory and at Denver.
     
  37. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Nah, they don't pay me to watch film this close to training camp....they only pay me leading up to the draft.
     
  38. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    He played VERY well in that first half vs Denver, to me easily his best half of football in his career. The GB game we had one solid TD drive the entire game...soooo
     
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  39. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Fair enough Fin
     
  40. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    it's not about the emoticons..you do it all the time when I'm just having a dicussion...

    Listen man, I'm trying to find the strengths and weaknesses of our qb, and I'm gonna talk about what I think he needs to do to be the leader of a dynasty, cause if he's not that then I keep looking, I'm not settling until I know, the good news is he's still improving..
     

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