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Where does Tannehill rank among quarterbacks today?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by The Sportz Guy, Jul 11, 2015.

  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    We scored three touchdowns in the second half of the Green Bay game, sooo...
     
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  2. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Fair enough man...He should have an outstanding year this year...and I will no longer do it...peace.
     
  3. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Can't argue with a damn lawyer...always taking sh*t in other directions to circle around a point without hitting it on the nose. ;)

    Point is...he's / they've been pretty decent against that creme in the regular season...2013 they beat, what, 5 playoff teams? 2014 was a lower number (thanks D). If teams elevate in the playoffs...and the Dolphins are in the playoffs...would they not elevate as well? No way to say either way, but if the standard is elevate, wouldn't you think that'd be more of an expectation?

    And I'm not implying all stats should be ignored...just saying stats that are heavily dependent on teamwork should be kept in that light. A stat on how many tackles a RB breaks, for instance, is definitely a personal stat. Dropped passes, more often than not, are an individual stat on the receiver...there's some subjectivity to it, but in general.

    The POINT of my post was that you negate the good with a negative, while standing pat on the bad by itself, not adjusting for the good involved. 70s rating where they scored over 30 and won handily, doesn't bother me. What was Mr. Elite Brady and the Pats' rating that game? 69.7...to Miami's 79.9. Brady's been in that system for many years...RT was playing his first game in it. In that context, that was a great performance overall, IMO.
     
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  4. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    That article is interesting... In his rookie year and 2nd year, he did exactly as the article suggested. He would have a string games with no turnovers, then games where he turned the ball over in chunks. It was something I remember talking about last year, in terms of an area he needed to improve. Tannehill isn't immune to chunk turnovers, but I think he's grown out of it at this stage.
     
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  5. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Not really.

    http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2014/

    This article looks at the air yards for QBs in 2014. In terms of average air yards per attempt, Tannehill was 24th. A couple of notable names with lower average air yards per attempt are Russel Wilson and Matthew Stafford. Actually the whole range is pretty small. The top 33 QBs range from 4.67 to 2.62. The average for that group 3.758. Tannehill was 3.53. You keep repeating that number b/c it seems so small, but in context of today's NFL it's just a little below average. IMO it's ridiculous to harp on this number as if it represents some huge failure unless you want to characterize Russell Wilson as an even greater failure for having an even lower average.
     
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  6. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You're missing the bigger point I was addressing. We were looking at Flacco and his pos-season numbers. That it was kinda remarkable he's had a good run the past few years, because generally, numbers suffer in the playoffs due to a few factors, but the biggest one being, the competition is tougher. Someone else thought this idea was hogwash, since you play playoff teams throughout the year. But the point is, you don't exclusively play just playoff teams all year. You get to feast on the Raiders and Jags (well Jags is a bad example) etc., while fighting for your life against playoff teams like the Lions and Patriots, and Denver, and Green Bay, and Baltimore, etc.

    So it's not easy to say, Tanny would be so great in the playoffs. He could be Flacco. He could be Dalton. Hopefully we'll find out soon.

    For ish and giggles I calculated his rating against playoff teams last year. 65% completion rate, 6.5 ypa, 10 TDs, 7 INTs, 86 rating.

    All but the first NE game came after things "clicked" with him. No real significance of this, just something to look at.
     
  7. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    He played pretty good for a quarter and a half. Rodgers played pretty good for four quarters. Rodgers deserved the victory but somehow, someway we had the ball and the lead with a chance to snatch it away from him.

    Both QBs played pretty good in Denver, both QBs had opportunities to win the game with the ball in hand at the end. One QB threw a TD pass and the other threw an INT...
     
  8. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    WTF does that have to do with the point about teams becoming magically harder in the post season?

    You or your boy have yet to answer this very simple question:

    How is playing NE (or any playoff team) harder in the post season then in the regular season?
     
  9. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I agree that by the eyeball test Miami wasn't throwing a bunch of bubble screens or shorter passes than most teams in the NFL. In fact, by the eyeball test I would say Miami was slightly above average in pass length. So why is the average below the NFL median? It comes down to how few long passes were completed. If Tannehill had completed the NFL average number of long passes (about 12 more over 20 yards with the same YPA and at the same percentage of air yards as he had , 51.4%), his average air yards per attempt would have been 3.88. That would have been slightly above the NFL average and tied for 17th. The upshot is that Tannehill is not throwing more short passes than average. In fact, he's throwing them at a slightly above average depth. His overall average just looks lower b/c he completed relatively fewer deep passes.
     
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  10. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yes really.

    First off, I said air yards per attempt. You're looking at air yards per completion (hence they factor in yac).

    Again I'm talking about air yards per attempt. Incomplete passes and INTs included.

    In addition I find it a bit disingenuous, especially for you (because I completely respect your football knowledge, and involvement in the league), to dismiss this as being a "small range" when the % difference between a 7 and 8 ypa is less than what we're talking about here, yet a 7 ypa is low, and an 8 ypa is excellent. Hell there is a huge difference between 7.0 and 7.5. It's not a huge failure but the author was attempting an argument that Tannehill wasn't playing it safe because he threw it so many times. Yes he did. And he didn't throw it that far. Other QBs took more shots down the field and missed, hurting their air yards per attempt (not completion). You noted in another thread how few shots we took down the field.

    Russell Wilson has a lower average. This is what happens when you have a #4 receiver as your #1. It'll be interesting to see him with a real receiver again.

    With just Golden Tate the year before, his air yards per completion was 4.43, second only to Jay Cutler's 4.5. Tanny was 3.76. Slightly higher than this year. Again we're talking air yards per completion, not attempts here.

    http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2013/
     
  11. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    It sounds to me that if you're subtracting the YAC that you are, by definition, taking the YAC out and just looking at the air yards. Regardless of how you want to nitpick the stats, the overall point still stands, that Tannehill is about average in terms of the depth of his throws. Really the one part of his game that has been below average is his deep passes which has been discussed ad nauseum. You keep complaining that he was throwing so many passes close to the line of scrimmage, but as was obvious to anybody who watches several different team's games, Tannehill doesn't throw more short passes than the average NFL team.
     
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  12. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    No it's a different calculation but I can't seem to find it (found it earlier in the year digging for other metrics). Air yards per attempt is just that, measuring how far each pass was thrown, whether completed or fell incomplete. Alex Smith is the lowest at 5.7 air yards per attempt (incompletions and interceptions included). When he faced Drew Stanton at the end of the year, he had a crazy 11.5 air yard per attempt (that's Bruce Arians for you).

    The stat you provided, which is useful, is used to measure efficiency. How many air yards they are completing, per pass attempt. But it doesn't show what we're discussing. How far from the LOS Tanny's attempts are.

    I do know Tanny had the 2nd lowest deep pass % in the league, just above Alex Smith. But for the life of me, cannot find the whole listing. I'm thinking some sort of subscription somewhere (PFF) is needed. Here is the NFL talking about it:

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000439362/printable/week-14-cheat-sheet

    Tanny was somewhere slightly above Alex Smith and you can see, the range is pretty wide.

    Anyway, my original point was to counter the author. I'm not saying Tanny only threw bubble screens etc., but he's in the bottom when it comes to how far all of his attempts were. The author implied that looking at the # of attempts refuted the idea we were conservative. That's just not right. You have to look at how far downfield the passes were.
     
  13. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    The short answer is that I watch a ton of NFL games and I simply don't agree that we throw more short passes than most. We just don't throw many deep passes. That lowers our overall average but the lower average does not mean that our short passes are more common or shorter than average. Your argument doesn't pass the eye test and the objective stats I provided support my subjective observations. I also don't agree with your conclusion that the author's methodology somehow negated his conclusion.
     
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  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah, reading through this thread, you'd think that Tannehill was doing nothing all year except throwing dump offs to running backs and little 3 yard balls to Landry. That simply wasn't true. Not hitting on the deep balls really changes how the air yards looks. It doesn't, however, mean that we weren't throwing them.
     
  15. cbrad

    cbrad .

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  16. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Personally I see that as a decent example. In the two links above Tannehill threw 68.1% of his passes either behind the line of scrimmage or 1 - 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Flacco threw about 70.7% of his passes either behind the line of scrimmage or 1 - 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. I haven't done that for every QB, but the general rule is that in today's NFL the average is about 70% for such passes. That's generally what I've found for anything I've looked at regarding the depth of Tannehill's throws. Basically the depth of his throws is about average. There is no reason to minimize his accomplishments this past season due to the depth of his passes. Yet this one stat that can't be found anymore keeps getting trotted out as a knock on Tannehill. It simply doesn't pass the eyeball test for anybody who watches a lot of different teams. And since we know that Tannehill attempted and completed fewer than average deep passes it makes perfect sense that his overall average will be somewhat lower. But it doesn't mean that he threw a higher of shorter passes than average. It's simply not a reason to knock Tannehill.
     
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  17. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    This appears to be correct, according PFF.

    Short Passes attempted (1-10 yards)
    Tannehill: 50.5%
    NFL average: 49.8%
    Notable QB's who threw a higher % of short passes: Brady, Manning, Flacco, Rodgers, M.Ryan, Drew Brees.

    Intermediate passes attempted: 11-20 yards
    Tannehill: 24.8%
    NFL Average: 22.6%
    Notable QB's who threw more intermediate passes: Manning, Newton, Matt Ryan

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/05/27/qbs-in-focus-short-passing-2/
    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/05/28/qbs-in-focus-intermediate-passing-2/
    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/05/29/qbs-in-focus-deep-passing-2/


    Fans see what they want to see regarding Tannehill, IMO.
     
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  18. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You're not even addressing my argument correctly.

    We're talking aggressiveness. Isn't the fact that we don't throw long passes, indicative of the fact we aren't aggressive? You're arguing a completely different point than where this side thread started. That author implied, Tannehill threw the 9th most passes so he was aggressive. Do you agree with that statement? Do you believe you can judge the aggressiveness of a pass system just by the number of attempts they take? Romo took 150 attempts less than Tannehill. Ryan rarely looked deep. By that authors metric, Ryan was more aggressive in passing than Romo. I'm pointing out, that is a silly test.

    This is the authors test:

    More pass attempts = more aggressiveness.

    You agree with that?

    You can judge the risk a QB takes solely by the number of pass attempts. That's what he wrote. That's so silly I really do not believe you agree with it, but must stick with your position.

    Take Drew Stanton and Alex Smith. Stanton's passes all traveled an average of 11.5 yards, meanwhile Alex Smith's traveled 5.7 yards. This author would lead you to believe, If Smith took 500 attempts but Stanton took 400 attempts, Smith took more risk. It's a silly incomplete argument that doesn't take into account the how far down the field the passes were. 100 passes to Jarvis Landry 3.5 yards from the line of scrimmage is not riskier than 75 passes to Mike Wallace 19 yards down the field. It just isn't.
     
  19. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If he threw league average in short passes, and above average in intermediate, he is significantly lower in deep passes. Hence, he was less aggressive than the league average in totality. Proves my point. But the author of that article that I took issue with, did not consider depth of passes, which is my only point. You have to take into consideration depth of passes to assess the risk taking by the QB.

    He only wanted to look at pass attempts, which is silly.

    Brady, Rodgers etc. took more short passes but also took more deep pass attempts than Ryan in that third link. Ryan took about the same deep attempts as Alex Smith. He's basically Alex Smith right now ;) (I'm kidding ... )

    EDIT: By the way, categorizing it that way, doesn't a 1 yard pass attempt count the same as a 10 yard pass attempt? Not really accurate. Not as accurate as the air yards traveled per attempt.
     
  20. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Wait....why does deep pass = aggressive?

    Can't aggressive also be throwing instead of handing off? Taking off instead of letting a play develop? Going for 9 yards instead of the 2?

    I mean we made it to the red zone quite a bit.
     
  21. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I do not agree that deep passes is the only way to measure aggressiveness. IMO the Pats have an aggressive offense despite not passing deep often. They are aggressive b/c they pass often in any and many situations.

    Second, and this really is my issue, you keep devaluing Tannehill's stats last season claiming that he threw more short passes than most. That is an inaccurate statement. He actually threw slightly fewer short passes, slightly more intermediate passes and fewer deep passes than average. I do not see any valid reason for your consistent devaluation of his stats from last season.
     
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  22. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Okay found it. Whew. I was off by a little. He was 28th. He was 12th the year before.

    http://grantland.com/the-triangle/miamis-gamble-what-does-tannehills-new-contract-mean/

    At week 14, Stanton was tops at around 11.5, Smith bottom at 5.7, and Tanny 28th at 7.4.

    I wonder where he got those stats. PFF?
     
  23. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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  24. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You track each pass attempt by how much it traveled in the air? Impressive.
     
  25. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I, for one, only want to see the team pass deep when its clearly open. It's a risky play that leads to a negative result more often than a positive one. I would much, much rather see the team focus on the intermediate passes, move the chains, and then make plays in the Red Zone when they get there.
     
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  26. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I prefer to pass deep when I feel we have some advantage. When Brady had Moss the Pats threw deep a ton. Without Moss they throw deep much less. Actually that supports my opinion that deep throw success is largely dependent on the WR. As I've looked through the deep throw stats for various years during these debates regarding Tannehill's deep throw issues I find that Brady is often one of the ones with worse deep throw success than Tannehill. But when Moss was there Brady was considered a great deep ball passer.

    This coming year we might actually have some advantage in that regard. JC is a big TE with the ability to threaten the seam. I see the seam pass as one of Tannehill's best passes. That combination could prove fruitful for us. Also, Stills has a shown a propensity towards deep ball success. When I watched highlights of the successful deep passes between Brees and Stills I don't see pinpoint passes. I see a ton of underthrown passes where Stills does a great job of adjusting to the ball in flight.
     
  27. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Completely agree.
     
  28. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    agree on ryans seam pass.
     
  29. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Im pretty pumped to see the 2015 Ryan Tannehill and stop debating the 2014 version. No one can argue his arrow is pointing up.
     
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  30. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Hell yes...cant wait.
     
  31. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I def think he's played with subpar receiver talent 1 thru 5 since arriving into the league..probably average running back talent since entering, and sub par line talent..yet he continue to improve statistically all three years...I feel very confident that two of those three units have improved talent wise obviously, and the line if they can stay healthy should be better, If ryan does what he needs to do to improve his individual game, we might crack the top 10..
     
  32. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    folks who think this dude is outside the top 12 remind me to not pay attention to your evaluations at the position.
     
  33. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    So now we're assigning team statistics to individuals? Football isn't golf or tennis. Joe Flacco hasn't won more games than anyone in the last five seasons. The Baltimore Ravens have. People use to say the same thing about Jay Fiedler... He may not be very good, but "he's a winner."

    In Joe Flacco's three lowest rated seasons for his NFL career, (QBr: 80.3, 80.9, 73.1) the Ravens are a combined 31-17. One could argue, that record is in spite of his play, not due to it.
     
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  34. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Only problem with that argument is the record before Flacco vs. with Flacco. Since Flacco has been in the league 7 years, look at the record for the 7 years before him vs. the 7 years with him, let's say just in the regular season. Ravens had an overall 60-52 record without Flacco but 72-40 with him. That translates to 1.7 extra games won per season with Flacco. The stats are more lopsided if you include post-season.

    Now.. I'm not saying that's a great argument because a lot of things happen in 14 years, but if you don't mind looking at a 7 year period (you chose 3 out of 7), then that's an argument one could make.
     
  35. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    not at all, it just confirms what i believe is a top 10 qb..not a coincidence.

    do you ever stop and think about the context of your numbers?...what is he on third down? 4th quarter? idk, but i would guess its better than you would think?
     
  36. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    In the years before Flacco (12 years), the Ravens defense cracked the top 10 for points allowed 6 times. During Flacco's tenure (7 years), they've cracked the top 10 5 times. The first four years of Flacco's career, his defense ranked 3rd overall for points allowed. They dropped to ranked 12th overall for 2012 and 2013, and then back to 6th overall for points allowed in 2014. Flacco and the Ravens managed to make the playoffs in 2012, and win the Super Bowl, with the 12th ranked for points, but failed to make the playoffs the following year with the 12th ranked defense for points. Every other run has featured a a defense in the top 5 for points allowed, except last year where they were 6th. To attribute the success solely to Flacco is silly. He's had a bunch of help from his defense, especially considering that Flacco doesn't play particularly outstanding in the regular season.

    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/
     
  37. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Many people seem to do that with QBs. They usually point to the few plays where the QB makes an incredible individual play as proof that he does it all on his own and forget all the mistakes the QB makes or the great plays made by the supporting cast. You need the QB to make the occasional great play that lifts the team, but no QB can do that every time. QBs like Marino, Fouts, Culpepper and Vick were all great at making incredible individual plays that lifted the team, but even they couldn't carry the team without help from their supporting casts.
     
  38. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Personally I'm not a fan of QBs like Flacco, Eli or even Favre or Elway who make a ton of mistakes and have long bouts of inaccuracy and then can get hot for brief periods or stretches. I prefer QBs like Rodgers or Brady (as much as it pains me to say it) b/c they make so few mistakes are more consistently accurate. Reality is that teams more often lose games with mistakes rather than win games with great plays.

    Flacco actually doesn't throw many interceptions, but he can be painfully inaccurate for long stretches. Sometimes it seems to me that Flacco's great stretches are nothing more than his receivers making more great plays on deep passes rather than Flacco really stepping up his game much.

    And when it comes to SB runs you need a great many things to go right to be successful. Even the best team needs to have a bit of luck in terms of injuries, bounces, scheduling, etc. That's why the best team or the best QB doesn't win every year. The most you can hope for is that when the stars align correctly with the rest of your team that your QB is part of that near constant (along with coaches and team organization) that's in position to capitalize. An inconsistent QB hurts your odds of that happening.
     
  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    My point was that if you're going to look ONLY at win/loss record during a QB's worst years statistically speaking over some period of time (3 out of 7 years in this case), then: 1) you can't claim from that information alone that "the record is in spite of his play", and 2) you are susceptible to a counter-argument using record ONLY that suggests otherwise. Like I said, it's not a strong argument because a lot of things happen during that time period (as you're also pointing out).

    As far as your stats are concerned, they also suggest partial credit for the Ravens success should go to Flacco, not that the Ravens won in spite of him. The average rank for offensive points is higher during Flacco's period than in the 7 years before him, or 12 years before him (rank with Flacco is ~13; rank without was ~18.5 for 7 years before and ~17 for 12 years before). As far as how much should be attributed to Flacco? Who knows. Never claimed I knew.
     
  40. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Wait, so the year they won the Superbowl, was the defense's worst year, or among it. Don't forget they had a middle of the road run game too.

    Sounds like it was all Flacco then.

    ;)
     

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