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Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by WELDERPAT, Jul 22, 2015.

  1. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I just realized that the study suggests the Dolphins will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. That would be something.

    I just can't imagine it with Joe Philbin at the helm. I really can't. But I could totally imagine it in 2016 with Philbin fresh out the door, a new head coach in giving us the typical 1 to 2 win boost that comes with a new head coach, Tannenbaum working hard during the off season to keep the players he's gathered together for another season, etc. That feels to me like the peak of the cycle...2016.
     
  2. RoninFin4

    RoninFin4 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Unless of course you're like me and if Miami made it to the Super Bowl you'd be doing everything in your power to ensure you'd be there. :shifty:
     
  3. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    If Tannenbaum/Hickey continue to do their jobs, it won't be a cycle anymore.. maybe we can be like some of those more successful teams where year in year out we have a high probability of getting into the post-season.
     
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  4. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    It's almost always a cycle unless you have hit on a truly elite level quarterback. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
     
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  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well.. Tannehill already is on a similar level to someone like Flacco in the regular season and the Ravens have a high probability of getting into the post-season each year, so for a good organization (with a good GM) it's realistic.
     
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  6. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Matt Ryan has played better and see what happens when your defense goes to shiznit.

    Romo has been playing excellent and their defense still sucks, but the run game got in order and they had some success. Romo right now is maybe top 5, and even they have cycles. Probably meddlesome owner but still.
     
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  7. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    Generational QB might be a better phrase to describe what parrot is talking about. Generational QB's like Brady, Manning, and Rodgers don't miss the post-season and always have a punchers chance even without great overall rosters.

    Even Drew Brees, one of the more under appreciated QB's in his generation, consistently competing for the QB triple crown, has missed 2/3 post-season's because of his team. Same goes for other top QB's in the league from Romo, Big Ben, Rivers, Ryan, etc... Coaching and organization do factor, but generational QB's account for more in this era.
     
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  8. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Consider the possibility of Tannenbaum and Hickey continuing to do well in the draft and FA. With one, maybe at most two more years, the Dolphins in that scenario will have no serious holes on the team. You have to manage contracts of course, but we're not looking at a point in the near future where many of our best players will suddenly become too expensive to keep at once.

    With a good GM/FO the Dolphins can realistically be a team that has no serious holes and plays above average each year, with some variation of course. The Ravens during most of Flacco's tenure is a good example. I think it's exactly those teams (other than the ones with elite QB's) that have a good chance of making the post-season each year.
     
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  9. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah, that's how I interpreted it based on what his argument was. I just pointed out it's still realistic to put together a squad that for many years consistently has a high probability of reaching the post-season. Elite QB's (generational or not) certainly help a ton, but it's not necessary.
     
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  10. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    That's the key IMO. Tannehill is already good enough. He's not a guy who can carry bad teams on his own, but he's good enough that with a good organization the team could stay up there. That's been the difference between the Ravens and the other examples. The Ravens always had at least a good defense and often excellent ones. The question is will Philbin continue to be an impediment.
     
  11. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    This year I won't get to watch much live football, if any. I'll be relegated to Game Rewind most of the year due to my schedule. Since my life has always been about poor timing I'm basically expecting they'll have a magical season. LOL

    I see Philbin as a net negative, but it can be fairly minor even negligible if he doesn't meddle too much. I believe we could make a run with Philbin being just average.
     
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  12. WELDERPAT

    WELDERPAT New Member

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    Not realy look how the idiot wrote the tile of the thread.
    Lol
     
  13. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Ive certainly been there. I used to work a lot of Sunday afternoons, and would miss the games. Then when I got dvr, I'd record them and then go on media blackout before pretending it was 1pm when I got home at night
     
  14. Dolphins1Beatles

    Dolphins1Beatles Ziggy Stardust

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    There's still a question of depth and of coaching. We saw how they faded yet again in December. Injuries will happen and I'm not sure they have the depth to get past that.

    But they certainly should make the playoffs and hopefully win a game. Going all the way to the SB would be quite a (nice) surprise though.
     
  15. The Sportz Guy

    The Sportz Guy New Member

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    Just because they are smart does not automatically make them "nerds."
     
  16. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    to me there is no negative connotation to the word nerd..to me it means creative and smart...I would be proud to call my own son one, so I have no freakin clue what your even talking about..
     
  17. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    In many cases, sure it does...but it's NOT the "nerds" of the '80s...it's now a term of respect...at least it is for me and folks I know.

    Nerds are indispensable.
     
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  18. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I would not be a happy camper with Matt Ryan as our QB.
     
  19. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Well...

    All I know is this. Who knows if Harvard's analysis will show true...but it sure is nice to know we at least look like a team that can be competing for a nice seed in the playoffs.
     
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  20. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. I would be less bullish on our prospects this year and going forward with Matt Ryan as our QB.
     
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  21. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You guys are seriously hating on some Matt Ryan. He's a superb QB and has been better than Tannehill by a long shot. Never has had much of an offensive line (and it's only gotten worse) and absolutely a terrible run game since Turner was no longer a burner. His accuracy is off the charts and he isn't throwing 3 yard passes to Landry.
     
  22. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    His OL hasn't been as bad as Tannehill's. He's had some of the best receiving targets in the NFL and his average pass was 4.04 compared to Tannehill's 3.53 (and seeing how Brady and Wilson have been so successful throwing even shorter passes, I see it as an irrelevant criticism anyways). So despite a better OL and far, far better receiving targets most people have Ryan and Tannehill in that same 9-13 range. Further Ryan is at that point in his career (7 years played) where he's probably plateaued while Tannehill is still improving and is a better runner. I see Ryan as a very good QB who needs a lot of help to win it all and always will. I don't have any hate for Ryan. I just believe we've seen his ceiling. We haven't seen Tannehill's ceiling and he's already about as good as Ryan. So going forward I would be far more bullish about Tannehill than Ryan.

    PFF OL rankings 2014 (Miami 32, Atlanta 26)

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/01/08/2014-pff-offensive-line-rankings/

    Air Yards

    http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2014/
     
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  23. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Your fluid benchmarks strike again.
     
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  24. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If by Plateauing you mean 99 rating and a championship game, yeah that's a damn good plateau. Couple of lucky bounces and you're winning the SB. Yes Ryan had Julio and Roddy together, but isn't that what he's supposed to do? Throw it to his receivers? The last two years have Ryan playing without both of them healthy for substantial parts, if not almost the whole season.

    You are projecting Tanny. If Tanny got a 99 rating this year and got us to the Championship game we'd all go out and hump the first thing that moves.

    As for the average pass, since I cited completion percentage that statistic is mostly irrelevant here. We already had this discussion in the other thread. First, your statistic only takes into account completed passes. When it comes to air yards per attempt, including incomplete passes, Tanny ranked 28th. The last 3 years, Matt Ryan has had 68.6, 67.4 and 66.1 completion percentages while his average air yards per attempts were much further down the field.

    Second, I find it specious that you claim 3.5 isn't much different than 4, but it's a 14.4% increase. a 14.4% difference between someone who throws 7.0 ypa, would be 8.0 ypa. I don't need to really explain the difference between a QB who throws for 7 and 8 ypa. Hell, the difference between 7.0 and 7.5 is already materially significant.
     
  25. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    First of all, I'm always projecting forward. With a young QB looking back at his rookie season and 2nd year with another OC is useless.

    And yes Ryan is a very good QB and most likely at his plateau after 7 years. He's also a guy who has had great receiving targets. Not just good, but great. Tannehill after three years is about where Ryan was after 3 years.

    Matt Ryan year 3

    G Att Comp Pct Att/G Yds Avg Yds/G TD TD% Int Int% Lng 20+ 40+ Sck SckY Rate
    16 571 357 62.5 35.7 3,705 6.5 231.6 28 4.9 9 1.6 46 32 6 23 158 91.0

    Ryan Tannehill year 3

    16 590 392 66.4 36.9 4,045 6.9 252.8 27 4.6 12 2.0 50 41 4 46 337 92.8

    And Ryan last year despite better WRs and a better OL than Tannehill was also about the same:

    Matt Ryan year 7

    16 628 415 66.1 39.2 4,694 7.5 293.4 28 4.5 14 2.2 79 60 8 31 205 93.9

    Tannehill right now is about where Ryan is and Tannehill is still improving. Tannehill also is a better run threat. So I would be less bullish about the Dolphin's future with Matt Ryan at the helm than I am with Tannehill here.

    And as for your constant harping on the average depth, the two QBs in the SB last season were throwing shorter passes than Tannehill so your insistence that this somehow makes Tannehill a lesser QB or somehow diminishes what he did last season or diminishes the Dolphin's odds of success going forward is ridiculous. It's simply a useless criticism.
     
  26. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    First off, I didn't make the short throw comment in a vacuum. I used it to show how impressive his accuracy percentage is, when you take into account he throws down the field as much if not more than anyone else in the league. He's in the upper part of the league in attempts down the field, and has an accuracy % that matches Tannehill.

    If you are trying to say that is not significant in any way, I can't come to any other conclusion other than you being a homer. No ifs and buts about it. Two QBs, same completion % but one is throwing much further down the field, just based on that alone, one is more preferable than the other.

    You are projecting what Tanny will do, which hasn't reached what Ryan has done. Both have had terrible offensive lines, I never argued Matt's were worse. 26th vs 32 is like saying, well the Bills have EJ Manuel vs the Jets having Geno Smith. Yeah? Both suck.

    Nobody is arguing Ryan is Top 5. But he's shown more, than Tannehill. He's shown he can play at a high level when the pressure is on.

    Ryan's peak was in year 5 and he's taken a hit since then but still around the neighborhood. Tanny's hasn't even matched that peak yet. You are projecting Tanny, that's fine. Projecting him to what? 110 rating? 5,000 yards, 40 TDs? That's what he'd have to do to be clearly ahead of Ryan. Tanny is a better runner, but Ryan isn't old knees Marino back there. Unless they bump up Tanny's usage a lot more in the run dept, we're talking 40-60 runs vs 30+ for Ryan.

    The only great option Ryan had last year was Julio. yes he's very great. Roddy White hasn't been Roddy White in 2 years. For now, Ryan is ranked ahead of, and has shown more and has had more success than Tanny. Could that change? Sure. Is Ryan at his ceiling? He could be. If you asked most people 3-4 years ago the same thing about Romo they'd say the same. But he just had his best season ever, in the 9th year.

    I know for a fact, with good weapons and at least a decent Oline, Ryan can deliver. We're projecting Tanny can do the same.

    If tanny throws for 4700 yards, 99 rating, 68% accuracy, gets us to the AFCCG game, we're all humping the air in joy right then and there.
     
  27. Da 'Fins

    Da 'Fins Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Read that as well in the report. I would like to have actually seen the predictions from the previous year laid out. He simply gave the general statistical predictive quality of it rather than an actual list. That would be more interesting to review.

    There's no doubt in my mind, however, that if health and the OG spots pan out, the Dolphins will be in the playoffs with a realistic shot.
     
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  28. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Not sure why you're arguing, and talking projections. Raf gave you the year three numbers for both guys...almost identical. He gave you last year's numbers...also almost identical. So...yeah, in his third year, Tannehill is already putting up numbers as good as Ryan.
     
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  29. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Imho, he is a long way from being superb and he chokes in the big games....I feel he has been way overblown in his career to date.....but that's ok if you like him......We are all entitled to our opinions....lol
     
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  30. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    JDang 307.....We are Dolphins fans here and the numbers are pretty close man...Ryan had 2 pretty good leads in the playoffs 2 years in a row and lost both. To Seattle and to San Fran.....when both started their comebacks Ryan and the Atlanta O could get nothing going but turnovers...int's. So yes, we are betting on our QB to do better....He has too.
     
  31. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    But but...Matty Ice can throw the deep ball......

















    ....to all world receivers.
     
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  32. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I just think that many Dolphins fans are still butthurt that we didn't draft Ryan.
     
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  33. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    [​IMG]
     
  34. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Not me. Only thought he was ok coming out of college, and would have thought drafting him at #1 was a mistake. Even though Jake Long got hurt and only had a small window of greatness with us, I'd rather have rolled the dice that another QB would come along who I felt better about than Ryan. It took a while, and 2009-2011 sucked, but it worked out in the end.
     
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  35. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It's pretty simple really. rafael is projecting Tanny to be BETTER than Ryan. So I'm showing what Ryan's done, and what Tanny has yet to do. So Tanny has to at least catch up to Ryan's plateau, which is 99 rating, team gets to championship game, and then exceed that.
     
  36. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He beat Seattle on a last minute drive. He also didn't choke when it came time to make the playoffs. Stuff we have YET to see from Tannehill. Our team as a whole, have choked down the line the last two years. Sure, it's a team game, but we have yet to see Tanny put the team on his shoulders and will a win, in crucial late season games. He's done kind of poorly actually. Geno Smith has the same number of GWD/4QC, in one less.

    That's kind of funny actually.

    I'm not saying it is out of the realm of possibility for Tanny to ultimately be better. But you still have to make that projection. As of now, he's not better. And has a bit to go. I have Ryan ranked ahead of Tanny. That is all. He's not Aaron Rodgers. Or Manning. Or Brady. Or Ben. But he's shown more and has done more.
     
  37. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    By plateau, I think you mean apex. A 99 QB rating and championship game appearance is the apex of Matt Ryan's career. He's plateaued as a low-mid 90's QB. And I say that with no disrespect towards Matt Ryan, I think he's under appreciated. Very steady and consistent. Not a lot of peaks and valleys in his game. I think he'll be holding a SB trophy within the next few seasons if Dan Quinn is the real deal. A great defensive coach + pro bowl caliber QB is the most ideal combination in my mind.
     
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  38. LBsFinest

    LBsFinest Banned

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    Tannehill isn't as good as Matt Ryan...Matt is top 10 on most QB lists, Tannehill isn't and shouldn't be that high on anyone's list yet.
     
  39. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    i can't wait for the season to start and the team wins some games...your silence during good weeks is valued.
     
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  40. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah, I love these conversations lately. Tannehill is not as good as X QB...even though statistically they are similar. It always comes down to wins and playoffs...
     
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