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What Are Reasonable Rookie Expectations for Miami Dolphins RB Jay Ajayi? | Bleacher R

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by dolfan7171, Jul 28, 2015.

  1. dolfan7171

    dolfan7171 Well-Known Member

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  2. Bpk

    Bpk Premium Member Luxury Box

    Good question.

    Depends on:
    1) Coaches trusting a rookie
    2) His knee
    3) His pass protection (see #1)

    I'd say the best case scenario would be him working his way up to 10 touches per game and 1 pass caught per game. If that were the case, I could see him ending the season with 600-700yds rushing, 100 yds receiving and 5 TDs.

    Worst case, he barely plays.
     
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  3. dolfan7171

    dolfan7171 Well-Known Member

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    I actually like him getting 600-700 yards in the season. It would be nice to see him at 500-600 yards receiving. Believe it or not, I think his knee is not as big an issue is people are making it to be. I think if it were an issue, he wouldn't have been drafted. But that is my opinion. I'd like to see him play well enough in camp to enough the backup spot and get some extra carries whenever Miller takes a rest or something. I think he has a chip on his shoulder to prove this knee thing is not something to worry about. I think he will play very well this season.
     
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  4. Harleydude666

    Harleydude666 Active Member

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    Hate to say it but he's gonna be a bust. We've seen this story before in all of our drafts the last few years. We always take a gamble on injured players and they never see the field consistently. Running back with bad knees??? Sheesh.
     
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  5. Harleydude666

    Harleydude666 Active Member

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    Ha! As long as the Fins are in the draft, they're always takers for injured players.
     
  6. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    A reasonable expectation for a fifth round pick is basically nothing.
     
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  7. dolfan7171

    dolfan7171 Well-Known Member

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    You never know guys...he could become a special player for us real soon.
     
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  8. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Slightly left of center
    He was fun to watch in college. No expectation at all for a rookie 5th rd pick. Can he tackle? Can he block? Without getting a holding penalty. Can he get his head NFL ready this year? He'll have to play ST to make the team I think. After that, better make sure he can pick up a blitz before he sees game time on offense.
     
  9. Alex13

    Alex13 Tua Time !!! Club Member

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    do you realize he put up 1800+ yards and 32 total TD's last year ? just asking because this not something someone does with bad knees....
     
  10. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think people are underestimating the role Damien Williams is going to play. In my eyes, Ajayi will be doing great if he splits the non-Miller production with Williams. I expect about 600-800 yards from them combined.
     
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  11. the 23rd

    the 23rd a.k.a. Rio

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    excellent running stable! let them compete for playing time.
     
  12. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    His real worth will come in the passing game, as he was the best receiving back in the draft.
     
  13. Harleydude666

    Harleydude666 Active Member

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    So are you saying his knees are 100%?
     
  14. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Are you saying they are 0%?
     
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  15. Alex13

    Alex13 Tua Time !!! Club Member

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    just look at his tape and his running, cutting do you see any evidence that his knees are shot ?
     
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  16. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    and over 500 yards receiving.
     
  17. Harleydude666

    Harleydude666 Active Member

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    Ok, so everything the pundits said about his knees coming out of the draft were all lies??? I don't know, college is much different than the NFL regarding speed and the pounding you take. I'm only going by the scouting reports
     
  18. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    The knee issues he has are not what you're thinking they are.

    His knee issues don't limit the quality of his play on the field. They limit the length of his career. If he busts it won't be because of his current knee condition.
     
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  19. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I would like to see the 3 of them split the carries, and each get over 1000 yards rushing.:wink2:
     
  20. Harleydude666

    Harleydude666 Active Member

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    I've seen 2 1000 yard rushers on a team before (Mack&Byner) but has there ever been 3 1000 yard performers on a team before?
     
  21. Harleydude666

    Harleydude666 Active Member

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    I hope so, I'm rooting for him, but of course I am, I'm a Fins fan
     
  22. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    I honestly think A LOT of people think he got injured after the season last year, and do no realize all of his production in college happened with these "bad knees".

    Even if we get 4 years of healthy production out of him, hes a 1-2 round talent that we got in the 5th. I'd think the expectations are high for him.
     
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  23. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    So why was he a fifth round draft pick?

    He is losing cartilage in his knee. Its bone on bone. Thats going to cause pain. Playing through pain could absolutely limit his quality of play on the field.
     
  24. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    He dropped to the 5th because of some speculation that he is Bone on Bone in the one knee. He has actually played two years on it since it was repaired and hasn't missed a game since.
    1st or (more likely) 2nd round talent that fell to the 5th. Even all the scouts and talking heads who were cautioning about his knee, thought he was an excellent pick in the 5th.
    The Dolphins did not risk much taking him at that point in the draft. If he pans out we got a steal at RB. Worst case is he never sees the field because of his knee.
     
  25. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    By his play on the field Ajayi was one of only two other backs after Gurley and Gordon that I liked for Miami in this draft. The other was Josh Robinson who went in the 6th. Those two were guys that I liked as potential stars and worthy of later picks. There was quite a few backs in this draft with a large disparity of opinions. Some saw it as a great RB draft and other didn't. That variance and Ajayi's injury would have been more than enough to drop him to the 5th.

    My understanding of the Ajayi injury was that it was diagnosed early in his college career but was not definitive. In other words, there was a mix of opinion among doctors as to what the x-rays showed. I know some teams took him off their board and some didn't. I haven't seen his x-rays myself, but in general you don't actually see the cartilage or lack there of (I've seen x-rays of patients with osteoarthritis). What you see is less space between the knee bones. I would guess that how much less space you see is a subjective call. Your big indicator is the patient's report of pain. If the person can take the pain then the injury isn't really limiting other than eventually we assume the bone will wear down and it will be too painful to take. In the old days you'd see players having to take pain shots to endure the pain. Reports are that Ajayi wasn't taking pain shots to play. So either it's not really bone on bone and he's not in pain (as he claims) or he's got a really high pain tolerance. Either way I would guess that it's safe to assume that he'll be able to play at his current level (whatever that may be) through at least his rookie contract. So I wouldn't be predicting he'd bust based on the injury report at least not through his first 4 years.
     
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  26. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    I just don't have a special feeling about him. Supposed to be a power back, but I just don't see it.
     
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  27. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Almost...with the Dolphins..We had over 2700 yards rushing in either 72,73....Csonka and Morris were both over 1,000 yards each and Kiick got most of the rest.
     
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  28. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn't call Ajayi a power back. I just hope he's better able to keep his balance after contact than Miller. That's what he was able to do in college better than Miller did in college. Miller just seems to prone to falling down after contact. He's clearly improved in that regard from his first seasons. He seems to generally fall forward and sometimes actually takes a few steps after the contact (which I guess counts as a broken tackle), but then he either falls or is tackled by the next guy b/c he isn't gathered enough.
     
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  29. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    It wasn't speculation - teams had his medical records and were able to examine him.

    I agree that there isn't much risk - a fifth rounder has a very low chance of becoming successful. I'm just saying that I don't think his odds are significantly greater than most other fifth rounders.
     
  30. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I would say his odds are better than a typical 5th rounder if you believe that his injury will not effect his performance. By most accounts he had a 2nd round draft grade based on his talent and production. If you believe that he dropped due to medical reports but that it won't effect him then his odds would be equivalent to a 2nd round player.
     
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  31. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Because he has a severely limited shelf life. Plus people hear "knee problems", and they react. This isn't complicated and was explained by medical people in Club. You read it, not sure why you're arguing it now. Well, that's not true, I'm fairly sure why you are.
     
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  32. Alex13

    Alex13 Tua Time !!! Club Member

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    ahhh....medical records...opnions by doctors about players and their outlook....why exactly is drew brees not a dolphin and how many TD's and yards has he thrown for since becoming a member of the New Orleans Saints ?
     
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  33. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    I like him a lot. Leading up to the draft, I mentioned him several times. The knee issue should not be that big of a deal. At worse, even if we get one good contract out of him, it will be worth it and that is certainly possible, though I think and hope we can get a lot more.The draft is funny. The knee issue may have not been the only reason he fell. Maybe most of the RB needy teams already picked their guy. Sometimes teams may need or want a RB, but when it was their time to pick, another player may have just happened to a be a better fit and fill a bigger need. We see strange and unexpected things happen every year in the draft and it's always a tough call for RBs in the draft. Also, he's not going to be getting all the carries, He has power, but he's also a great receiver out of the backfield and he has very good vision through the hole. He can be a great compliment to Miller. I am looking forward to seeing what he can do. I was very psyched when they drafted him.
     
  34. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    He's the most complete back in the draft. He relishes the chip on your shoulder role. I would say 500 rushing, 500 receiving would be considered a good year for him. Anything more and your looking at ROY award consideration...
     
  35. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    A RB only having a 3 yr shelf life is not going to drop him to the fifth round.

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  36. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Says who?
     
  37. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    32 NFL teams.

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  38. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Actually, 32 said precisely the opposite. But hey, don't let facts stop you.
     
  39. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    How exactly do you reconcile that?

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  40. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    How about this: you explain why no NFL team drafted him before the 5th round? If you're saying that he's a second round talent, then that means he has a three year or less shelf life.

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