What Are Reasonable Rookie Expectations for Miami Dolphins RB Jay Ajayi? | Bleacher R

Well, Stringer, see if you can follow along.....he was taken in the fifth round, sooooooooooooo.....

Let me know if a map needs to be drawn.

 

What?

 

Please draw that map because your logic as to why NFL teams value him as higher than a fifth rounder is not very clear.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

 

oooohhhhhhhhhhhhh, I see. You're doing that thing you do where you refuse to be intellectually honest, because you think these arguments are good for the site.

Well, his ability without the knee issue is good enough that he would have been projected at least a round 2 pick. He was taken in the 5th because, teams figured he'd only make it about 3 years.

Hope that wasn't complicated.

 

Right, so you're saying a second round that essentially will not make it past his rookie contract is only worth a 5th round pick. Suffice to say I don't agree that a 3 yr shelf life warrants a fifth round pick. The average fifth rounder is unlikely to even play.

There's an easy way to settle this. What % of 2nd round RBs are in the league after their rookie contract? The higher that number is, the more likely you are right. The lower that number is, the more likely I am.

What do you think that % is???

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

 

That wouldn't prove anything.

You are neglecting to account for all variables. You're only counting one. Lots of 1st and 2nd rd RBs don't make it whether they were drafted with an injury or not. That is the first & biggest variable....and then comes the knee issue. If you believe a RB (a very devalued commodity in the NFL right now) is only going to give you three years, one of which is his rookie year where you expect it will take him a bit to acclimate to the NFL, then yes, 5th round is about right.

Now back to you claiming 32 teams agree with you, when they very clearly agreed with me. Explain that.

 

A fifth round RB giving you 3 years is not a realistic expectation. This is a non sequitor.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

 

You're not making sense.

Because the rounds of the draft aren't solely determined by potential years of service.

 

I'm making perfect sense. You are claiming that Ajayi was a fifth round pick because his career will only last ~3 seasons, when in reality that would be an unlikely career span from a fifth rounder.

The average expected career of a 5th rounder is < 3 years. The argument is that Ajayi has second round talent, and a career that is expected to last longer than that of the average fifth rounder. So why exactly is he a fifth round pick?

 

You are not making sense.

 

What doesn't make sense? The average fifth rounder does not stay in the NFL for three seasons. Therefore the argument that Ajayi's expected career length being 3 years dropped his draft position does not make sense.

 

No, that isn't sound logic. You are comparing two things that do not necessarily mix together. The average fifth rounder doesn't matter when it comes to Ajayi. Same with Iko who fell to the 7th because of his injury to miss the 2015 season. Each situation is different. You can't use generalities to prove something for one person. It falls down and doesn't make sense.

Fin D's logic is sound.

 

Right, so ultimately you guys are saying that Jay Ajayi will significantly outperform the average fifth round draft pick, therefore your opinion of him is higher than that of the NFL. Theres nothing wrong with that.

 

No, I am saying what the average fifth round pick does, doesn't matter. Each player is in the fifth round for different reasons.

 

Right, but they are inherently valued the same.

 

Which of course is meaningless.

 

Not meaningless at all. It has value in identifying how NFL teams value the player. Is it definitive? Definitely not, and players constantly outperform their draft value and prove the NFL wrong.

 

Which is why it doesn't matter in the conversation.

 

Their value =/= length of career.

Which is EXACTLY what you're arguing.

 

To this point, you've yet to cite a reason for him to be valued as a fifth rounder other than his length of career being 3 years. So why exactly do you believe no NFL team picked him before the fifth round?

 

Players drop for multiple reasons. In Ajayi's case the general consensus was that he was a 2nd round talent just after the season. Then the medical reports came out and as a result some teams dropped him from their board completely. Some didn't, but some did. That lessened the number of possible buyers which obviously lowered his likelihood of being drafted in any round. Then among the remaining possibilities it comes down to team needs. If Team A has a 2nd round grade an Ajayi and a 2nd round grade on a DT and they have a higher need at DT then they probably take the DT. That doesn't mean team A didn't see Ajayi as a 2nd round talent. Or maybe Team B has a 2nd round grade on Ajayi but doesn't need a RB at all. They might not take him at all or maybe they keep passing on him and filling needs but then take him in the 5th b/c they just see him as too good of a value to pass up. It's too simplistic and inaccurate to say that a player was taken in the 5th so that's how the NFL saw him. Reality is that the NFL is not made up of one mind or one opinion. With Ajayi I suspect and heard that he was rated anywhere from the 2nd round to undraftable. We don't know how many teams had him rated as a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th or undraftable.

 

We have no idea where teams had him rated. What we do know is that he wasn't selected until the fifth round. Markets are inherently more accurate than any individual within the market.

 

What difference does it make in the Grand scheme of things? Stringer, we will see soon enough how he can best help our team, and based on his college career, especially after the knee injury, that he has done nothing on the field except produce. So, with his particular skill set, since we do not have a "feature back" then he may fit particularly well in our stable of RB's, and he could have landed on the perfect team to not be over used and he will compliment Miller and Williams very well. To get his kind of talent, in the fifth round no less, looks and feels like a steal. That is why the Miami Dolphins tooK Ajayi in the Fifth Round....that pretty much sums it up in a nutshell, unless you are just arguing to argue...LOL.

 

Its intellectually dishonest (yet again) to flat out disregard my actual and logical reason and say because I didn't give a completely other reason that my point is invalid.

 

We do know that the ratings right after the college season had Ajayi rated anywhere from the 3rd to 8th best back in the class. This generally corresponds roughly to the range of team rankings.

Generally the draft is considered a crap shoot. If you go around acting like it's some definitive ranking of talent or even of team valuations then you're going to end up looking stupid often.

 

BTW here's a a pre-draft quote by Kiper regarding where Ajayi might go:

“There are only four or five teams that are even thinking about a running back in the first three or four rounds, so if those teams take somebody else then Ajayi maybe drops a bit," Kiper said, via Chadd Cripe of the Idaho Statesman. "You’re going to get bargains at running back. He can be a bargain in the fifth or sixth round.”

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-the-drafts-best-under-the-radar-running-back

And from the same article here's a a Charles Davis quote comparing Ajayi to former 1st round pick Doug Martin:

"I don't think (Ajayi) is Doug Martin—I like him better than Martin coming out...

It's always kind of silly to pretend that all 5th round picks are equivalent or even that they reflect some NFL talent rating. Reality is that a first rounder in one year might be a 5th rounder in another.

 

The draft is a crapshoot, but draft position is still the most accurate predictor of success.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

 

Did Mel Kiper examine his knee?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

 

Would you please stop changing up your argument?

 

Ajayi was a fifth round pick for a reason, and that reason isn't because his career will last three seasons. That hasn't changed.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

 

BS. You saying it doesn't make it true. You have literally nothing to base your ridiculous (and varied) arguments on.

You've been given projections of his talent by professionals. You've been given diagnosis about his knee by medical professionals. In turn, you've jumped all over the place making one outlandish assumption after another. Every tangent you've weaseled down to try and "win" this argument has been at best false and at worst comical.

Mr. Myagyi has already honked your nose.

 

So what's the problem?
You bang him inside like the plan with Moreno.
Use him in the fourth quarter when Miller is toast.

 

Please share these medical diagnosis.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

 

Tell you what Fin D, I got $100 that says Ajayi will have microfracture surgery within 14 months of opening day of this season, assuming he's still in the league. If that doesn't happen I'll send $100 to the site.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

 

lol. You seriously cannot stop changing the argument can you?

 

Do you plan on explaining why you believe Ajayi was a fifth round pick or will you continue to talk about me? Will you share the diagnosis you cited?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

 

Yep, That;s hat I mentioned.

 

The problem is his health?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

 

Sigh. I've explained it numerous times. In fact, my explanation started this stupid argument. I've been consistent, you've been all over the damn place. I've also already told you where to find the medical stuff. In fact, I'm sure you've already read it as it was in Club. I will not link it, because, its in Club.

Also, how can I point out that you keep changing your argument without mentioning you?

 

Give it up. He is apparently lost in the sauce.