http://www.thephinsider.com/2015/8/1/9083125/espn-tags-dolphins-as-super-bowl-sleeper I hadn't heard of that "BDR" before...seems it was created by this ESPN guy (KC Joyner). Not that it means a whole lot, but this is the first time I've heard ESPN mention Dolphins and Super Bowl in the same paragraph, aside from Ross trying to host one, in a long time. Good to see some positive media for the team from those guys. Also nice to see they recognize how decent the running game was last year.
KC Joyner is a life long Dolphins fan. He, at one time, did football statistical analysis - maybe Football Outsiders? Just going from memory here.
Looks like BDR has been around since 2006. KC Joyner explains the metric here: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=2542482 He lists some QB's that are the best at BDR (least # of bad decisions) and those that are the worst. Among the best in 2006 were Brady, Bledsoe, Leftwich. Among the worst were Hasselbeck, Favre, Roethlisberger. If you look at 2012, Jake Locker was at the top, Peyton and Rodgers were middle of the pack, while Brees and Roethlisberger were way below. I guess what this says is that BDR isn't a good measure of overall QB ability though it might be useful info when combined with other measures. If anyone has ESPN insider, maybe they can give us a full list and we can see BDR for 2014?
Good post. I am not sure if I trust ESPN's predictions or whatnot but it is good to hear something like that. I think there is some people who is attempting to give respect to the Dolphins for a change.
Grain of salt. It's ESPN. At this point in the season we have as many wins as every team in the league.
Possible. The schedule probably couldn't be better if we created it ourselves (besides having to give up a home game in London), its not crazy to think we could start 9-1. I'm not going to attempt to calculate it but I'm guessing our offense was a top 5 unit in DVOA over a significant number of games in the second half of the season. Was that a streak or is Philbin's plan finally starting to bear fruit? And the defense was a top 5 unit for the first half of the season, if the offense and defense can live up to their potential and get in synch they should help each other be even better. Put a standalone top 5 defense together with a standalone top 5 offense and they both should help each other rank even higher. I think at the very least this season we're going to put more coaches in the position McCoy was in: either give up on the game or put your QBs health at risk. We're going to get more big leads and when our defense gets to pin its ears back look out. Opposing QBs will be laying in heaps on the ground a plenty. Especially if McCain becomes what I think he can. We could have a Jason Taylor clone coming off one edge, Cameron Wake coming off the other with Suh and whoever else we chose coming up the inside. Would you keep Brady out there down 20 in that scenario?
While I don't put much stock in ESPN's "expertise", I do think that at least on paper we deserve to be seen as a potential SB team. I see it as fairly obvious that on paper we have enough talent among our stars and across the board to merit that. Now we have to be considered a "sleeper" b/c we have to show it on the field rather than on paper. Most of the media and fans are far better at talking about what they've seen in the past rather than projecting forward. Until you demonstrate success there will always be skepticism. But in any analysis that's looking forward you have to project. I do credit ESPN for noting the obvious and being able to make a reasonable projection forward.
Super Bowl? My confidence isn't that high, but dethroning the New England Patriots as the top dog in the AFC East? That I definitely see as not only possible, but more than likely probable.
No, but I honestly think BB would...especially if they weren't already nearly a lock for a high playoff spot. But I'm with ya 100%.