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2012

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Sep 1, 2015.

  1. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    I remember Ireland was asked about trading up and he made an inside joke type comment that he was the one in the organization with some guts, which I interpreted as he was fine with staying put and somebody else felt like we should trade up, which I'm guessing meant Philbin felt like we should have traded up, probably worried about Cleveland taking Tannehill at their pick.
     
  2. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    Shame he didn't take on that attitude in 2013 instead of ruining that draft (and off-season).
     
  3. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    You'll never hear me call the draft a crap shoot. It continually amazes me how much order the scouts are able to create out of pure chaos. If it weren't for scouts and the parallel media scouting industry that cropped up along side of scouts (both of whom converse with one another frequently and share notes with one another), the "crap shoot" people would be taking guys like Graham Harrell and Case Keenum in the first round every year. Carmen Messina would be taken in the 1st round right along side Luke Kuechly.

    Scouts get a lot wrong but that's because the job they have, predicting future human performance and behavior on a relative basis for a group of 3,000+ players coming out of college every year, is impossible to get right. Yet somehow they create enough order out of that chaos that as cbrad pointed out, the top half of the first round produces 50-60% pro bowlers, and the second half of the first round produces 30-40% pro bowlers, success rates declining in a discrete pattern the further down the draft board you go, keeping in mind that only 10 percent of the legitimately draft eligible college football players get drafted to begin with.

    I'm in AWE of that.

    But apparently I'm alone.
     
    Rocket2981, Clark Kent and cuchulainn like this.
  4. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    Finatik may have used the wrong choice of word w/"crapshoot." Drafting is an inexact science and you're right, the effort these scouts, GMs, media, etc... put into creating a tangible list of prospects w/projects is impressive. If there was a better way to do project and draft accordingly, these people would find it and do it. Hell, any avid fantasy football player should understand how hard it is to predict and project players. And that's not even close to a 1:1 comparison to what real scouts/GMs/Media have to do.

    There are way too many variables in, as you say, predicting future human performance. As a result, you're constantly "failing" w/little chance of a ROI. Jason Taylor was on Dan Patrick's radio show and talked about how tough mentally playing DE is. He found it mind boggling that a pass rusher is rushing the QB around 600 times a year and you're an all-pro if you get 15 sacks. Failure comes w/the territory. Same for drafting.

    Which is why trading down an acquiring more picks is the sensible thing to do. If you trust your scouting division, there's more opportunity to hit. Over the years, how many great players almost became Miami Dolphins? Guys like Jimmy Graham, who we were a few picks away from drafting. You trade down earlier (especially in round 1), acquire more premium picks (2nd or 3rd rounders), suddenly, Jimmy Graham may drafted in the 3rd by Miami because they had the extra pick. Do this enough times, you're increasing your chances for getting starting caliber players. It may increase chances of drafting more "busts" simultaneously, but the risk is minimal, IMO. The difference between prospects 20-50 isn't significant. 51-100 there's a drop off, sure, but there's plenty of starting talent coming out of the 3rd round, especially in offensive skill positions like RB and WR.
     
  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I couldn't resist.. had to see if statistically speaking you could claim scouts are doing better than random.

    Test to use is the chi-squared test. Turns out the expected number of pro-bowlers from 2000-2011 drafts (just the drafts, not undrafted players) per every 16 picks in a single draft is 2.14. To make things simple (for me.. so I don't have to tabulate pro-bowlers by every 16 picks), I assumed scouts picked purely randomly from the 2nd to 7th rounds. This should give a lower bound as to how random scouts are (meaning, in reality they'll be less random than the result of this analysis).

    The chi-squared stat comes out to 23.75, which is just barely beyond the 95% threshold for saying scouts are NOT random (for 13 degrees of freedom). So, that right there is some probably unnecessary statistical evidence that scouts are drafting better than random in the 1st round.


    As a side note, there were on average 5.27 pro-bowlers among undrafted players per draft between 2000-2011. That seems like quite a lot that scouts are still missing, even accounting for the large number of UDFA's per draft. It would be really interesting if UDFA's that became pro-bowlers had something in common that most scouts are missing.
     
  6. CrunchTime

    CrunchTime Administrator Retired Administrator

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    Thats a little too much content and the link is not obvious .Fixing it.
     
  7. CrunchTime

    CrunchTime Administrator Retired Administrator

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    Thats why I laugh when someone starts a thread about the worst Dolphin players ever .Some remember Sammie Smith but at least we remember his name .The worst ones are the ones we forget because they are so forgettable we cant remember their names.....and there are a lot of those.:yes:
     
  8. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    That is very true! Sadly Very true.
     
  9. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Sammie would have been great if he played with Brady..............his fumble numbers would have disappeared.
     
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