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Week One: Skinning the Washingtonians

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by keithjackson, Sep 10, 2015.

  1. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Finally football is back!

    Miami travels to Washington, perhaps the most unloved team in all of sports. Berated by Congress over their name, mired in the biggest non-story in football, and projected by many to be the worst team in the league this year, the R*dskins could be dangerous like a wounded animal in a corner. Anything can happen in Week One, but the Dolphins match up very well in winning this contest.

    For as much bad hype the Skins are receiving, the Fins are hearing a lot of good hype. But unlike other years, this seems to be predicated on the performance during the preseason rather than on paper. The first teams outscored their opponents 35-3. Their defense has looked like the most relentlessly dominant in NFL over three preseason games. How impressive have they been? Consider that of the twelve drives the starting defense played, seven were 3-and-outs; the other five were an INT, a goal line stand (TO on downs), 4-and-out, 7-and-out, and a FG. Consider that Matt Ryan played 16 snaps, and 10 went for zero or negative yards, including the three sacks that lead him to pulled after the first quarter in that pivotal third preseason game. 12 out of Cam Newton's 20 snaps resulted in one-or-less yards.

    Ndamukong Suh is a fearsome addition to the best Dline Miami has ever fielded, able to create pressure both up the middle and on the edges. The right side of Suh-Wake-Grimes may be the best in the entire NFL. With their biggest a weakness on offense being the Oline, things don't look good for Kirk Cousins on paper behind an Oline that was destroyed by the Browns n the preseason. An undersized an underwhelming center, Cory Lichtenstein will need constant support all day. Moses Morgan is a lumbering RT that Wake should be able to exploit with his quicker, more technical skillset. Brandon Scherff is a high pick inside, and it will be interesting to compare his play against fellow rookie Jamil Douglas. This is truly a Fins strength versus a Skins weakness. They've made QBs look awful all preseason.

    Cousins makes better decisions than throws. He has a history of being forced into crappy throws, and getting rattled by constant pressure and his own mistakes. He doesn't have the arm to fit the ball into tight windows. His passes are easily defensible, and prone to INTs. However, he doesn't take as many sacks as would RG3. DeSean Jackson is their best playmaker, and Miami's rush will aim to effect the pass before his routes can develop. They have nothing at the TE position, which is almost negligible since Miami allowed the fewest yards in the NFL to TEs last year.

    If the Skins are gonna win, it's going to be by attacking the perimeter with DJax, and their strong running backs. Matt Jones has been a bit of a revelation, and Alfred Morris is an established asset. The Dolphins defense is not particularly fast, an th secondary has question marks. There is a lot riding on Jelani Jenkins an Kelvin Sheppard not being overpowered at the LB spot. Last year Miami was one the best defenses in the league the first half of the year, an one of the worst during the latter. It was an inexplicable drop off mostly effected by a sudden inability to stop the run. The key to this game, and the season, will be which run defense shows up. The joy of week one is we just don't know.

    My key player on defense this week is Olivier Vernon, who has been talked up by all the national pundits this offseason. The pressure is on the young man to perform in his contract year. No better way than against a very good Olineman in Trent Williams. If he wants to earn the praise, and make that money, he has to be able to beat quality players. If he has a good game, particularly setting the edge, the Fins will win.

    On the other side of the ball, WAS relies on it's good DLine to create pressure up front in order to mask deficiencies in its secondary. This could've been a top ten Dline this year with Junior Gallette, and still might. Terrance Knighton is an excellent run stopper in the middle. Ryan Kerrigan is a force at LB, and Jackson Jeffcoat may be their breakout candidate of the year. Expect them to be very tough in short yardage situations, as yards won't come easy all day. Lamar Miller may not have the coming out party some expect with rush yards quiet for both sides. My key player on offense is Mike Pouncey, who had an injured and out-of-position 2014. After earning his money, he needs to show leadership and poise against the heart of Washington's defense.

    However, the further from the LOS the ball gets, the Skins' defense starts to break down. This may have been the worst secondary in football last year, allowing 35 passing TDs (worst), 108.3 rating (worst), 8.2 y/a (worst). Their best DB is an aging DeAngelo Hall coming off two Achilles injuries. Their most fearsome DB, Breshaud Breeland is suspended and that is going to be huge for Jarvis Landry in the slot. It's a soft secondary full of poor tackling, especially in the open field. They sit back, keeping the play in front them, daring teams to dink-and-dunk them to death. That just so happens to be Miami's speciality. Bill Lazor will look to get his quick twitch players like Landry and Lamar Miller the ball in open spaces and watch them eat up space.

    Ryan Tannehill had a marvelous preseason. He looks more decisive, with better footwork, and his arm more powerful than ever. In three preseason games he completed five in a row (Bears), 7 in a row (Panthers), and 10 in a row (Falcons). Tannehill has become very good at taking care of the ball, with zero INTs in preseason, and only 12 in 2014. The Dolphins also had the fewest 3-and-outs in football last year, were excellent on first down, and against the blitz. There's no reason to expect that to change. The focus this offseason was improving redzone production and creating big plays, and the front office made the moves to get Tannehill every opportunity to do so.

    I can't remember there ever being this much mystery on the offense going into the season. Brandon Albert and DeVante Parker were held out of the preseason, and vital additions Jordan Cameron, Kenny Stills, and Greg Jennings were kept under wraps with a combined total of nine targets all preseason. If they can produce when the cage is unlocked, the sky is the limit.

    Prediction As both teams have a strength at Dline and a weakness at Oline, this could be a low-scoring affair. While the teams have similar strengths and weaknesses, the biggest gap comes at the QB position, and that should decide the outcome. Look for the defense to make a statement.
    MIA 20
    WAS 10
     
  2. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    Great post, Keith! Pretty good breakdown for the Redskins fans visting the site (or lurking) as well.
     
  3. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    Great breakdown as always, KJ.
     
  4. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The thing about bad teams is that they make bad mistakes: missed tackles, blown coverages, untimely penalties, and turnovers. If the Redskins are a bad team, they'll commit enough of those toxic plays to lead to 30 points.

    But I don't know if you can project that kind of output, especially in Week One. Giving them the benefit of the doubt, this has the ingredients to be a low scoring game.
     
    USArmyFinFan likes this.
  5. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Hung 30 on the Cheatriots last year in the opening week...with a little homefield (hot as f***) advantage, still, the team, over the past 2 years, is 8-8 at home and on the road, so I don't see the game being at Washington as a difference-maker.

    Just really feels like a blowout, but anything is possible...
     
    77FinFan likes this.
  6. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I'm not sure how true the bolded part is.

    Consider the power rankings for the Dolphins from 4 different outlets on May 13th, right after the NFL draft and with FA mostly complete:
    http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2015/5/13/8599819/2015-nfl-power-rankings-draft-seahawks-patriots-49ers

    USA Today: #10
    ESPN: #15
    NFL.com: #17
    CBS Sports: #16

    Average: 14.5



    The most recent power rankings (Sept 8th-10th) show:
    http://www.usatoday.com/sports/nfl/rankings/
    http://espn.go.com/nfl/powerrankings
    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...ankings-seattle-seahawks-begin-season-at-no-1
    http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/powerrankings

    USA Today: #8
    ESPN: #15
    NFL.com: #15
    CBS Sports: #15

    Average: 13.25


    So, training camps + good preseason moved us up on average about one spot. That suggests most of what's driving the perception of how good/bad this team is, from neutral observers, comes from the roster itself.
     
  7. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Also, the pre-season moved us up a game on the betting sites, and that is significant.
     
  8. deepball

    deepball New Member

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    Keith you have delivered an excellent analysis of this Phins/Skins game. Actually more accurate than the so called "experts" on ESPN. It shows me that you didn't just read a magazine or listen to ESPN. It shows me that you actually watched some Redskins during the Preseason as well as Miami. Being that Miami has to travel on the road and will face a very loud crowd, I think you are absolutely correct about a low scoring contest, regardless of who wins.
     
  9. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Keith, as always brother, thank you for your awesome pre-game writeup.:hi5:
     
  10. Redskins202

    Redskins202 New Member

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    Lol skins got destroyed by the Browns? Kirk played second stringers and he almost had a perfect game.

    And we have nothing at TE ? Lol just like Cameron if Jordan Reed is healthy he arguably would be a top ten TE.

    I respect the score atleast I mean atleast your not making it seem like we are a cake walk.

    Edit: dude your grammar 20xs better than mines but you have made false assumptions. Kory is actually a good center and Dhall is our #3 best CB our first would be Breeland and second is Culliver, thw only reason Breeland isn't listed #1-2 is because of an suspension.

    That being said good post but from a skins fan point these are the real facts about some of the things you've said. And cousins does have the arm to throw into tight spots..his issue is that when the skins where down he kept.looking for a TD within 2-4 plays.... even our HC said Cousins arm is a bit better than rg3 including Djacks.
     
  11. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think the relief of all players that the cancer is being treated, you will have a stronger collective effort and focus.
     
  12. IBleedBnG83

    IBleedBnG83 New Member

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    Skins fan here - I come in peace.


    Overall good analysis by the OP. One point of contention is the secondary. The Redskins signed Chris Culliver who is and has been a very good corner. Hall has surprisingly looked good coming back from injury but who knows with that guy. Gholston is another addition and while it's another journeyman addition, so far it seems to be an upgrade from Ryan Clark (for whatever it's worth). Duke Ihenacho has been a standout all off season and many expect him to be a breakout player and another immediate upgrade. So while the secondary isn't glamorous, it's improved but there are still a lot of questions.


    The defensive line will be the Redskins biggest asset. They have a great rotation with the addition of Potroast, Jean-Francois, Pae. Look for Rookie LB Preston Smith to come in a lot and make some plays.


    Offensively, the right side of the o-line is untested. However Kirk does a great job of making reads and getting rid of the ball. I expect the game plan will help reduce what Wake and Suh can do. I think Kirk will surprise a lot of people this year.


    Im not going to pick against my team but it's hard to argue the Redskins having so many questions being able to definitely beat another team. For them to have a chance to win, they will need to control the clock,be on the plus side of the turnover ratio, and maintain good field position. None of which will be easy. My only hope is to see progress and no one get hurt.
     
  13. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    This we can all 100% agree with.
     
    77FinFan likes this.
  14. WhiteIbanez

    WhiteIbanez Megamediocremaniacal

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    31-10 Dolphins
     
  15. Kingtut561

    Kingtut561 New Member

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    Hey great write up. Go phins! Yeah baby yeah
     
  16. Redskins202

    Redskins202 New Member

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    It was a good write up ..just needs a bit of touchup on the skins.
     
  17. Redskins202

    Redskins202 New Member

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    I agree..no injuries.
     
  18. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    We don't think so...then again, we're on our OWN team's board.
     
  19. keithjackson

    keithjackson Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Thanks for the props, and the Redskins fans' input (it's hard finding a lot of footage for a Week One game).

    Here are the keys for what I will be looking for tomorrow:

    1. Like I said, Olivier Vernon on Trent Williams and Mike Pouncey against their interior Dline really are going to be fascinating strength-on-strength matchup so, so those players need to put their money where their mouths are. But the other player I will be watching the most is Branden Albert, mostly to make sure he looks healthy.

    2. What will Ryan Tannehill's YPA be? It was absurdly low last year, while what the R*dskins allowed was absurdly high. With improved big-play targets on one side and a revamped unit on the other, which one of these will budge.

    3. Special Teams were a big problem for both teams, especially in coverage. The Dolphins looked much improved over the preseason with the additions of Paysinger, Bowman and Vigil, but it is still a mystery. And going with two rookie kickers could very easily prove very risky if this is a close game.

    4. WAS should probably game plan a ton of screens, but MIA was usually very good at sniffing those out last year. On the flip side, WAS has a good run defense, but I have a hunch they will be susceptible to Ryan's read option running. Whichever between the Skins' screen game and The Fins' read option game is more successful will be very telling in who wins this game.

    5. Penalties. Miami committed a ridiculous 38 penalties this offseason; that's 9.5/game. Looking back at data through 2003, only one team has averaged more in an NFL season. Hopefully it's just a prereason fluke due to u fostered players, but if it's not then this is going to ruin drive after drive. I have faith in Philbin, as I believe commentators Jared the fact that Joe's team has been the least penalized team in the league under his tenure.

    If The Dolphins come out on top in at least three of these categories - which I believe they will - they should win this game.

    Question of the Week: Who will be our #2 WR? Kenny Stills, Greg Jennings, Rishard Matthews an DeVante Parker all have a shot as no one has really run away go-to-guy status, at least not in public. Adding in Jordan Cameron, it's really a total toss up who will have the second most yards after Landry. Predictions?

    Crazy Prediction of the Week: Jarvis Landry will have more yards receiving than Lamar Miller does rushing. This matchup sets up for Landry to have a gigantic day, even without the Skins' Rush D being underrated. Breeland being out is huge. The fact the Skins weakness in the secondary is tackling is huge for the extremely-hard-to-tackle Landry. The Skins playing to keep everything in front of them, and their front trying to force quick passes, is ideal. The fact that it is Tannehill's first game with Stills, Jennings and Cameron means Landry may see a greater percentage targets than he will in ten weeks. Sky's the limit for him tomorrow.
     
    VanDolPhan, Bpk and dolfan22 like this.
  20. VanDolPhan

    VanDolPhan Club member Club Member

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    You were a 4th and 1 go for it away from your score prediction.

    You almost had your crazy prediction. Miller with that last run = Landry's receiving yards.
     
  21. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Thanks Cousins, may we never return the favor.
     
  22. DolPhinPhan7

    DolPhinPhan7 Well-Known Member

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    I'm trying to not be a homer here. But I'm annoyed with the analysis that the Dolphins only won because of Landry's kick return.

    They had the Skins pinned, Forced a punt and say Landry doesn't go for the house call the Phins get the ball at minimum mid-field. They could have ate a lot of clock should they have had a drive there. They were moving the ball really well (should have had a TD the previous drive if it wasn't for a delay of game and a really bad play call by Tannehill).

    They were in control of that game, even if McCain doesn't make that amazing INT that drive was a stop.

    That being said, that first half was largely an embarrassment. Hopefully Jville doesn't have an equivalent of Alfred Morris.
     
  23. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    T.J. Yeldon looks to be the featured back but Denard Robinson gave us some trouble last season, IIRC. I don't think either are as good as Morris, though.
     

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