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Will you consider tannehill still a franchise QB if he doesnt lead us to playoffs?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by pumpdogs, Sep 16, 2015.

  1. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Sigh.

    The bolds literally contradict each other.

    According to you, Tannehill can suck and we can go to the playoffs because its a team sport, BUT he's not a franchise QB because he alone hasn't won enough games in the 4th quarter.
     
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  2. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    Can always apply coach Philbin's criteria for measuring a Dolphin QB to see if he is franchise. From what I see on a scale of 1-10:

    1) Decision-making = 6 (Does pretty well getting rid of ball on short throws when decision made pre-snap. Tendency to dump the ball off well short of 1st down marker on 3rd down rather than waiting for receivers to get open beyond 1st down marker. Takes too many unnecessary sacks. On a sort-of positive, doesn't throw a lot of interceptions as a result of not taking risks down the field.)

    2) Accuracy = 6 (7 on short throws (gets the ball to players, but not pinpoint accuracy leading players)...4 on medium throws (right hash mark I would give him an 8)...2 on long throws)

    3) Big-play ability = 2...in 3+ years and 1,696 passes Tannehill has completed 4 passes over 50 yards (80 yards to Hartline on a busted coverage against the Cardinals...Sept 2012, 67 yards against the Colts...Sept 2013, 53 and 57 yards against Panthers...Nov 2013). That literally translates to 1 completion longer than 50 yards every 424 pass attempts in his career...Tannehill has not completed a pass over 50 yards in his last 839 attempts and only 3 passes over 40 yards during that time...WHOA!

    Of course, big plays can also be winning games in the closing minute of a game. Not much to talk about there.

    IMO 14 out of 30 would not be a franchise QB.
     
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  3. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    Two quick points. Somewhat contradicting to one another. Just throwing them out there...


    1. I'm not going to pretend Ryan Tannehill had a great game on Sunday. He didn't. Couple of balls batted down (per usual w/RT17), some close calls with INT's, missing a few big play opportunities, strip sacked, etc...

    Had Ryan Tannehill/Miami....

    - Hit Dion Sims for the TD: Tough throw, against his body, missed ball placement by about 8-12 inches.
    - Hit Cameron in the end zone in 4th quarter goal line series: This play never officially happened. Delay of game @ Was 5 yard line. Prior to stopping play, Cameron beats his man to the inside, is wide open in the EZ. Tannehill throws a strike. Cameron never tries to catch the ball because the play was obviously dead at this point, but it was a sure TD if Miami beat the clock.

    Tannehill is looking at a 3 TD, 280 yard passing day, in an overall uneven Miami offensive performance. There was a lot to dislike about Miami's offensive production beyond those two plays. Even if they did occur (and they didn't, which is fair enough), there was still enough bad all around that nobody would be completely pleased. But I don't think anyone would suggest hitting the panic button if those plays worked in our favor. It's week 1. Skins have an underrated front 7. Hopefully we have walked away w/a W, while shaking off the rust and jitters of kickoff weekend.




    Now for my contradicting 2nd point...

    2. Ryan Tannehill is historically a different QB Home vs. Away. I don't think it's too strong to suggest he's somewhat Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. If the topic is Ryan Tannehill and "franchise QB," Tannehill must even out his performances on the road. Like I said, I don't think week 1 is a great predictor of Tannehill, the skill players, or the offense in general, as week 1 always has variables that seemingly come from no where. Week 1 is where "any given Sunday" applies more so than any other week. Having said that, I'd like to see Tannehill turn the corner in regard to his road performances and I will be slightly concerned if he has another uneven road game. It's still early enough that I won't hit the panic button though.
     
  4. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I'm not sure I agree with complaining about Tannehill dumping it off short (and not waiting for routes downfield to develop) AND complaining about taking too many unnecessary sacks. I feel like both of those are direct results of terrible oline play. To hit the ball deep, you need the oline to hold for longer than 2.5 seconds. Unfortunately, as we saw against the Redskins, the line is still showing no signs of doing that for Tannehill.
     
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  5. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    In regards to O line play, Tanny's internal clock for getting rid of the ball has to be something like, "One-one thousand, two oh sh#@!!"
     
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  6. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    It would be stupid to put somebody on such a list in his first three seasons. It's just ridiculous to compare a QB in his third year with career accomplishments. Peyton Manning for example was long criticized for being a poor playoff QB. His team made the playoffs in a weak division but was often trounced early in his career. His playoff record was horrid then. If I recall correctly Elway didn't make the playoffs in the first three years either and he was playing well enough in his third season for the team to do so. The issue is that QBs can play great and still miss the playoffs. That's kind of the point of this thread. Off the top of my head Brees 2008 and 2012, Rivers 2010 and Romo 2011 all put up top 5 QB seasons and didn't make the playoffs. There are simply too many other variables to place it all on the QB. The intelligent to grade any QB is by their play.
     
  7. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yup, thanks for summarizing that for us. Just because we win some games does not make him a franchise quarterback....but a franchise QB can steal close games in the 4th.
     
  8. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    So only a QB can win or lose the game in the fourth quarter...even though you say its a team sport?
     
  9. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Legitimate NFL QB's boil to the surface on the brightest stages .... i.e. playoffs and Super Bowl.
     
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  10. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    Elway made the playoffs his first 2 years and then all those consecutive Super Bowl runs 2 years later.

    Does anyone here really think that in a crucial game with less than 2 minutes to go, down by 6 points that Ryan Tannehill will lead us to a TD most of the time? Because I certainly do not get that feeling. I hope he steps his game up this season and becomes the leader we all want him to be. But he is not there right now.
     
  11. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Honest question (not arguing, I honestly don't know), how many games with 2 minutes left and down by a score has Tannehill failed on?
     
  12. P h i N s A N i T y

    P h i N s A N i T y My Porpoise in Life

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    So much for trying to keep all this crap in one place. I'll elaborate on this later, in my own separate Tannehill opinion thread.
     
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  13. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    This mentality, which you inaccurately portray in the first place, has fcking NOTHING TO DO with the team's standing in the division....that's the dumbest crap I see repeatedly spewed from the trolls around here.

    It isn't the end-state...it's progress...does that escape you? Moving from a team that hasn't made a playoff in 6 years, to a consistent playoff team, would certainly be progress and better than we've had in many years.

    But to meet your standard, the team has to go from 8-8 to winning the SB in 1 year (which nobody would complain about on this forum)...but guess what Sparky, you kinda have to MAKE THE PLAYOFFS to have a chance at the SB!

    You won't find a SINGLE fan that wouldn't want them to be as dominant as the Cheatriots (minus the cheating part for most of us with standards...not the knuckle-draggers) have been the past 15 years...no way no how...being happy with perceived progress doesn't mean stop there, nor does it mean anybody thinks they've totally arrived.

    If Fin D posted, "these guys suck, same sh*t every year, nobody's better, Ross sucks, Philbin sucks, Tannehill sucks" how would that change what the team does?

    Get a fkng grip.
     
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  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Perhaps you should actually check out what Tannehill's rating is in the 4th, down by 7 or less...
     
  15. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    4th Quarter = 75.5
    Down 7 or less = Don't know where to find that stat
    Trailing 2mins to go = 54.5
    Trailing 4mins to go = 64.1
    On 3rd Down = 73.1
    On 4th Down = 30.6
     
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  16. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    i'm not a big stats guy but thats pretty ugly, be interesting to see the rebuttal there, tells me there's a problem with converting 1st downs on 3rd down or 4th down, which is something I can believe considering what I believe is a weakness of his.
     
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  17. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    In short, he didnt play like a franchise QB last week. I thought his YPA might get better but RT17 looks like he might just be a career Captain Checkdown type QB. Thats indisputable at this point, no argument.
     
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  18. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    It's been talked about a few times on this site recently. The standard protocol has been it's the team around him helping to keep those numbers repressed.
     
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  19. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    In 2014, Tannehill's rating in the 4th when within 7:

    Quarters Att Comp Pct Yds Avg Lng TD Int 1st 1st% 20+ Sck Rate
    4th Quarter within 7 70 45 64.3 514 7.3 40 4 1 33 47.1 7 8 99.3

    So, yes in a crucial game with the team down 6 in the last 2 minutes, I would believe that Tannehill would be at least among the top half of QBs in the league in terms of success. And I anticipate that he will continue to improve as he develops.
     
  20. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    What the ****? What PLENTY of drops are you referring to? Did you even watch the game? Do you know how to count? Im really trying to figure this out because I counted one drop to Matthews, thats why im wondering if you even watched the game or if you can count because ONE does not equal PLENTY dude.
     
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  21. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Everyone knows its gonna take X amount of games (X= when RT17 actually looks like a competent QB) to learn the system.
     
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  22. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    You thought it might get better...and 1 game sends you the other way. Not only is it disputable, but its incomplete at this point, too small a sample size since his new corps of weapons, unfortunately he missed 2 that he's usually a good bit more accurate on, else we'd have a little bit to talk about. He had a bad game, no question, but I've seen MANY a franchise QB over the years (yes...even Marino, Montana, etc) have bad games. He hasn't earned those guys' status yet, but to bail after one game seems kinda premature.
     
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  23. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Thee...Ohio State University

    No argument here, the NFL is litteraly a game of inches...a play here a play there can and will be the sidference in a bad game, good game Win loss.

    That being said, IF (and i dont think he will) Ryan plays like he did in Wash I will be concerened road games or not. We are talking about 2 pretty meh defenses. He hasnt been consistently good enough in bis career to merit that many free passes for me. I took last week with a grain of salt, but I hope I dont have to come in here and say anything critical of #17 sunday evening.
     
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  24. 77FinFan

    77FinFan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    For Tanny you really have to look year-to-year as he has grown significantly each year. The first number are pretty damning, the second post is pretty exciting.
     
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  25. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Last year is where he improved compared to years 1 and 2 (which were bad).

    Next step is consistency from year to year.
     
  26. BigNastyDB13

    BigNastyDB13 Well-Known Member

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    Even qtr to qtr. Throw to throw. How many times have we seen Tannehill make a beautiful pass only to turn around and miss an easy throw? Consistency has always been his problem. He has the talent to make all the throws. Let's hope he takes that next step.
     
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  27. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Anyone got an answer for ^ this?
     
  28. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I haven't seen that very much and his completions numbers certainly point to that.
     
  29. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Basing it off his low college YPA and low NFL YPA to start, going forward I would bet he continues to checkdown if I HAD to make a bet.
     
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  30. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I hear ya...and I'd take the bet.
     
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  31. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Well, just one doesn't really help his argument so...
     
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  32. shamegame13

    shamegame13 Madison & Surtain

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    Im hoping RT17 improves to a 7.3 this year, so I will let the season unfold, however, it just didnt look like a good start for his outlook as far as an improved YPA is concerned but it is just Week 1 and lots of football left to improve his YPA.
     
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  33. Undisputed

    Undisputed Banned

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    My fantasy team prays you are right!

    Go Bucks!
     
  34. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I literally just posted this in another thread:

    I'm looking for at least a 7.5 by season's end.
     
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  35. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah, worth having some data.

    So, I just went through all Dolphins games from 2012 and looked at which games Tannehill had a "reasonable" amount of time within the last 2 minutes (so not something like 10 seconds left near your own goal line at the beginning of a drive) to win the game. To be fair, I included cases where Tannehill helped lead a game winning drive as well as cases where he failed. Now.. for all you Tannehill defenders. I am NOT claiming Tannehill was the sole/primary reason for failure to score in what would have been a game winning drive. Similarly, I'm not saying Tannehill was the primary reason for a successful game-winning drive. You guys can go look at the details of each game for that and argue about it. This is just some data:


    Game winning drives by Tannehill where the drive included at least some part of the last 2 minutes of the game:
    2012: Dolphins beat Seattle 24-21 (IMO his best game ever)
    2013: Dolphins beat Falcons 27-23
    2013: Dolphins beat Patriots 24-20
    2014: Dolphins beat Jets 16-13
    2014: Dolphins beat Vikings 37-35

    Failure to win a game with a drive that included some part of the last 2 minutes of a game:
    2012: Colts beat Dolphins 23-20
    2012: Bills beat Dolphins 19-14
    2013: Ravens beat Dolphins 26-23
    2013: Panthers beat Dolphins 20-16

    I hope I didn't miss any.. if I did please correct.

    EDIT: I deliberately left out overtime wins/losses.. if you want to add those you can.
     
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  36. BigNastyDB13

    BigNastyDB13 Well-Known Member

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    You haven't seen thill make a great throw only to turn around and miss an easy completion? Who cares about completion %? Thill could complete 90% of his passes but if they're all 5 yard passes, what's it matter? Is he leading his team to points? That's all that matters. My point was thill had the talent to make all the throws. Example, his pass to Cameron, both of his long passes to Cameron were a thing of beauty. Neither all that tough of a throw but impressive nonetheless. In the same game, he missed 2 easy td throws. Thill is nothing if not inconsistent. What was his completion % last week btw? And how many pts did that lead to?
     
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  37. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    So i guess its not really as bad as many make it out to be. Well, I for one, am shocked.

    Thanks!
     
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  38. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    No, I haven't.

    At least not in an inordinate amount. All QBs throw bad passes.
     
  39. BigNastyDB13

    BigNastyDB13 Well-Known Member

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    Right and some moreso than others. Unfortunately, Thill misses more than most "franchise" QBs.
     
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  40. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks cbrad for research:

    three OT games and failed to score in all three:
    2012: Jets defeat Dolphins 23-20 (One possession and had a 60 yard drive, but missed 48 yard FG)
    2012: Cardinals defeat Dolphins 24-21 (One possession and threw interception led to Cardinal FG...Tannehill fumble with 2:23 led to Cardinals sending game to OT)
    2013: Dolphins defeat Bengals 22-20 (Offense failed to score on two possessions...won game on a Cameron Wake sack)
     
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