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Fourth Quarter Play-Calling

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Tannephins, Sep 21, 2015.

  1. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    The fourth quarter of yesterday's game began as a 20 to 20 tie.

    For nearly throughout that quarter, the game remained tied at 20.

    The Dolphins' offense ran 16 plays during that time (prior to the post-winning-field goal garbage time plays, which I won't count here).

    One play -- just one -- was a run. That was the very first play of the quarter, with 15 minutes remaining, and it gained two yards.

    The other 15 plays of the quarter were passes.

    Ryan Tannehill completed 9 of those passes (60%) for 74 yards, for a YPA of 4.9. That YPA is very poor by NFL standards.

    Over the entire game, the Dolphins' YPA was 8.2, which is excellent by NFL standards. So the functioning of the pass offense in the fourth quarter represented a tremendous decline from what it was previously in the game.

    Ryan Tannehill was sacked twice during that period, when he had been sacked zero times previously during the game.

    The Dolphins punted the ball on each of their four drives (again, excluding the final drive from this analysis).

    So, I think one has to ask himself: why, in a tie game in the fourth quarter on the road, would you run such an imbalanced offense? Why would you essentially function in "panic" mode when the game is tied and obviously still very winnable?

    In fact, at the 9:27 mark of the quarter, the Dolphins likelihood of winning the game was 70 percent!

    When they got the ball next on offense at the 6:30 mark, that figure was still 62 percent! The team ran the ball zero times from then on!

    Why?
     
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  2. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Because. They. Can't. Run. The. Ball.

    Of course Tannehill's ypa went down. He threw it 45 times, and the defense knew that's all they had to stop.
     
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  3. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    But when you don't. run. the. ball., you also can't. pass. the. ball.

    That's the point.
     
  4. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah, but, would the result be any different if we ran it? Lose yards on a couple runs, and then let the defense tee off on the pass again on third down. I think Lazor just went with the only option that was having any success.
     
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  5. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    But then why run the ball earlier in the game? If the run isn't having success after let's say the first quarter (as was the case yesterday), why not abandon it from then on?

    There's no logical reason to abandon the run in a tie game, when you hadn't abandoned it previously.
     
  6. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I get your point, and it's a valid one for the most part. However, it's pretty obvious we were unable to run the ball. Even with the Jags playing the pass, we still couldn't run because our OL is a complete joke by NFL standards outside of Pouncey, and Albert if healthy. Running at that point would be just a wasted play. Especially since we seem to love slow developing pitch plays.

    We were getting manhandled at the line on both sides of the ball. I don't think it would have mattered much if we ran more. They were getting in the backfield on runs, on passes when blitzing, and when only rushing 4. We were just a complete disaster. IMO, the fact Ryan put up the numbers he did throwing the ball is a miracle in and of itself.
     
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  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    They ran it what, 12 times with Miller? That's 11 times in the other 3 quarters? That certainly sounds like abandoning the run to me.
     
  8. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    His numbers were very bad when the offense was the most imbalanced. When the offense was far more balanced, his numbers were far better.
     
  9. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    There was nothing balanced about the play-calling. Prior to the fourth, it was 30 passes to 11 runs for Miller. How is that balanced?
     
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  10. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    Prior to the fourth quarter:

    25 passes (63%)
    15 runs (37%)

    During the fourth quarter (prior to garbage time):

    15 passes (94%)
    1 run (6%)

    Over the course of the entire 2014 season, the Dolphins ran the ball 40% of the time.
     
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  11. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    we can run out of the spread offense just fine....
     
  12. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    Right now we have the third worst running game in the league in terms of yds/game. If we can get that to be just about average (about 100 a game) and if Tannehill continues his good play, our offensive output will shoot up tremendously.
     
  13. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    He threw 44 times. 15 in the fourth. 44-15=29.

    Nonetheless, nothing about those equations is balanced. Jacksonville certainly wasn't afraid of the 2 ypc the backs were getting in the first three. It wasn't affecting their defensive calls.
     
  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Further, Miller had only 10 carries, with a 1.4 ypc average. Stop with this BS about balanced.
     
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  15. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    He threw the ball 19 times in the fourth quarter. I'm not counting the last four, when it actually made sense not to run the ball.

    Again, the percentage of runs went from 37 to 6 during the fourth quarter, prior to the last drive after the winning field goal. That's abandoning the run, and during a very winnable tie game.
     
  16. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    You don't keep running the ball when you cannot run the ball.
     
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  17. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    You don't seem to be getting the point that there are benefits to being balanced regardless of the production of one or the other elements of the offense.
     
  18. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    So then why not abandon the run earlier in the game, when it was clear the team wasn't running well? According to you it was a mistake to run the ball with that frequency during the second and third quarters perhaps, when the team erased its deficit on the scoreboard?
     
  19. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Well, you claimed in the initial post that he threw 15 times in the fourth quarter, I went off your numbers. Further, 9 runs through 3 quarters by Miller, against 25 or whatever passes, is hardly balanced, and didn't change how the Jags played defense.
     
  20. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    The Dolphins ran the ball 37% of the time prior to the fourth quarter, which wasn't significantly less balanced than the 40% of the time they ran the ball in 2014.
     
  21. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    You are aware that you only get 3 downs to make a first down right?

    So how is throwing away 1 of those downs on a run play that has almost no chance of working going to help?

    The only way balance works, is if you're keeping the other team honest with your run game, but that wasn't the case yesterday.
     
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  22. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Res, you’re right on the money on this one my friend.

    On the whole though, Miami is very west coast in how they tend to call plays and by that I mean they tend to set up the run with a variety of pass patterns. The reason Lamar Miller attained one of the best YPC averages in the league last year while not being anywhere close to the most valuable RB is a testament to the WC philosophy. You can draw immense production from a RB that is only marginally above-average.

    I understand that some teams run the ball to set up the pass but it’s naïve to assume that all teams do that and that yesterday’s mix of pass and run wasn’t optimal. The assumption that the run and pass should be split approximately equally is shown to be nothing more than a baseless assumption by fans and analysts. The sad reality was, you just saw optimal! I’m sure Bill Lazor would’ve loved to have been able to run the ball more but he obviously had a very limited play-book from which to work.

    “Abandoning the run” is a phrase that fans need to get used to and start putting into perspective.

    It’s actually a good thing to abandon a line of play-calling that’s netting you 1.9 yards per play. I’m not sure how anyone who watched the game yesterday could ask for more running given how absolutely inept the O-line was. The more the game went on, the worse the O-line played and the more it became apparent that running plays were going to get stuffed in the backfield and that while the QB was under pressure, it was better to hope for success through him and accept a couple sacks than to run knowing you’d get negative yardage.

    Moreover, the only success Miami had on offense last week was in the hurry-up, 2 minute offense they executed before half-time in which the ball was being moved through the air. That is really the only thing Miami’s offense does relatively well at this point.

    Yeah, we’d like to see a few more runs to keep the defense honest, but when they put you in 2 and 15, there’s no sense in it.
     
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  23. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    How did it help in quarters two and three, when the team ran the ball as frequently as it did in 2014, and erased its deficit on the scoreboard in doing so?
     
  24. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    You won't find anywhere in this thread where I've asked for "more running" than the team exhibited in quarters one through three.

    What I've questioned, rather, is the 37% to 6% drop-off we saw in the frequency of the run amidst a fourth-quarter tie. That defies logic.
     
  25. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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    Allow your offensive line to move forward instead of backpedaling. Force defenders to consider the threat of a run instead of simply taking their free shot at Tannehill. Force corners to come up and play run support, make them take some contact. etc. You can't throw the ball 100% of the time.

    Incidentally, I blame Philbin for this. Going back to the time of Mike Sherman, Joe doesn't want to run the ball.
     
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  26. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Tanny throwing 45 times makes me cringe. They continue forcing this offense into a one-dimensional box.
     
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  27. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    And 94% didn't work too well yesterday, either.
     
  28. Canad-phin

    Canad-phin Active Member

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    I think people are missing the point. First of all, stop that terrible sweep play that starts so far behind the line of scrimmage. The success we were having passing the ball we should have been happy taking the 2 yard gains, because it keeps the defense honest. Miller has the ability to break a long run every once in awhile. But the threat of the run just went away and they knew it. Also stop the PA on 3rd and 15, just dumb. Playcalling was terrible. Worst game by Lazor yet. I would have send that even if we won. Just bad. 2nd and 8 isn't that bad especially when Ryan was dealing until we stopped running all together.
     
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  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    So, here's the runs, by running backs:

    1st quarter: 1 - 2 yds, Miller, 1 - 0 yds, Miller = 2 carries for 2 yards
    2nd quarter: 1 - 4 yds, Miller, 1 - 3 yds, Williams, 1 - 4 yds, Miller, 1 - 6 yds, Miller, 1 - -2 yds, Miller = 5 carries for 15 yards
    3rd quarter: 1 - 1 yd, Miller, 1 - 4 yds, Miller, 1 - -5 yds, Miller, 1 - 0 yds Miller = 4 carries for 0 yards
    4th quarter: 1 - -2 yards, Williams = 1 for -2 yards

    So, with that spectacular running, you're both saying we should have run more, AND blaming a lack of balance for the result of the game?? I don't care about percentages here, but those numbers DO NOT create a situation where the defense is even remotely concerned with you running the ball. Want to know what's wrong? The offensive line. It's been the problem for three years, and it is going to be a problem this season. We cannot run the ball. I, for one, do not in the least blame Lazor for not calling more run plays. In the fourth, with the game on the line, you call what's been working the best. That happens to be the passing attack. Come on, our running backs combined for 15 yards. FIFTEEN YARDS. But people on this site are complaining about Tannehill. It's like complaining that your steak is too rare while your house is burning down around you.
     
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  30. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    There's no reason to restrict the analysis to the running backs.

    Again, the Dolphins ran the ball 40% of the time in 2014 (with their running backs AND others), and before the fourth quarter yesterday they ran the ball 37% of the time (with their running backs AND others).

    During those three quarters, despite the inefficiency of the running game, Tannehill and the pass offense enjoyed much better production, and the offense erased a deficit on the scoreboard.
     
  31. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Uh, yes there is? I mean, Tannehill was our leading rusher with 3 rushes for 17 yards. That's ridiculous. But, OK, we'll add in the massive FOUR other rushes that occurred, three by Tannehill, and one by Landry.

    So then, the 2nd quarter has 7 carries, adding in the two from Tanne, for 29 yards
    The 3rd quarter ends up with 6 carries for 9 yards.

    It's ridiculous to act like that playcalling in anyway affected the defense.
     
  32. Canad-phin

    Canad-phin Active Member

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    I watched two PA plays in the 4th yesterday that none of their LBs bit on because they knew we were passing. In the first half they were taking all kinds of false steps because the threat was there. Even when you are doing something really well you still need to run. Look at GB last night. They lost Lacy and Starks still had carries against one of the bet Ds in the league. Just frustrating to see such bad playcalling on both sides of the ball.
     
  33. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    The percentage of passes increased from 63% to 94% amidst a fourth-quarter tie. Look at it that way, then, if you want.
     
  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yes, it did. Because we could not run the ball. If we came out in the fourth, and continued doing what we had done all game, people would be complaining that Lazor continued to call runs when they clearly weren't working.

    The ONLY running that I think affected the defense was Tannehill's runs. I do agree with DJ that they need to run him more...but that scares me, cause I really don't want Tannehill running alot.
     
  35. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    So then, once again, how did the pass offense function so much better, and the team erase a deficit on the scoreboard, by including so much more of something that "wasn't working"?
     
  36. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Well, clearly, from a statistical perspective, the passing attack was working. 250+ yards, 2 tds, no ints, and almost a 10 ypa entering the 4th. Contrasted to 17 yards and a 1.5 ypc with the run game. ONE of the offensive philosphies was clearly better, and was enabling the Dolphins to move the ball. Acting like the run game was keeping the defense honest is laughable. The Jaguars were not in the least bit afraid of the run game, except from Tannehill.
     
  37. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    So why didn't the passing game keep on functioning in that way, or even better, when the thing that "wasn't working" was removed?
     
  38. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Well, I didn't get a chance to watch the fourth, but if it played out like the other quarters, the Jags rush 4 guys, and dropped 7 into coverage. Miami's ****astic oline couldn't block four rushers, so they had to have an extra blocker, and Tannehill was trying to throw to four guys covered by 7 defenders. Take away the deep, and keep everything in front of you. Toss in some offensive penalties and sacks, all cause by the aforementioned ****astic oline, and you have a fourth quarter where again, the Dolphins can't score.
     
  39. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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    It's worth noting that we can have success playing pass happy football... when we run the two minute drill.

    If we're going to abandon the run completely, we need to run the hurry-up.
     
  40. Tannephins

    Tannephins Banned

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    If that was going on, it's an even better argument for running the ball, and an even greater indictment of the team that it didn't.
     
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