Is Ryan Tannehill the long term solution at QB?

there are so many flaws with looking at the game from a stats perspective that i'm the wrong guy to use stats as an argument for. when stat sites have brian hoyer, ryan fitzpatrick and kirk cousins all in the top ten you really need to question how valid these stats are

 

misi to me is kind of a grunt. he's borderline. i think we have to get another LB to pair with jenkins and if misi is our weak link then its not that bad. we can get another lb or we can address another position. misi is borderline acceptable/ not acceptable

 

Wait a second... For all the trash talk against Matty Ice and the favorable comparison to Tanny, he had 397 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT.


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We need a playmaking MLB.

 

the last drive by russell wilso today was about as impressive as your gonna see at this level..

on one drive, they rolled him left and right three times total...they ran one zone read keeper..and he ran twice unscripted improv style...all plays to convert on a game winning drive

to bad our coordinator and qb dont get it.

 

Yeah and I'm positive his stats don't reflect that. He's so efficient though and his ability to make plays when things break down is amazing.


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There are equally serious flaws with people evaluating football players based on game tape without using stats.

The advantage of stats is you are using an internally consistent and often mathematically optimal method of inference given the input data. The disadvantage of stats is that the input data is extremely sparse (tons of information was thrown away) compared to what a human being can observe.

The advantages and disadvantages of humans are just the opposite: humans can incorporate all kinds of observations not easily measured, but their analysis is often biased, sometimes internally inconsistent and rarely deep (in the sense of understanding the logical implications of the observations).

Both stats and "eyeballs" are useful and complementary. You shouldn't throw out one for the other. And of course I'm talking in general, not about a specific stat.

 

what does being last in third down conversion mean as someone who analyzes stats like yourself, your conclusions?

 

disagree . the only reliable analysis is the eyeball test. you just have to understand the game and what the responsibilities are. that takes a while to learn but is inherently much more reliable than stats. i think stats are fine for baseball. its mostly a one on one battle and is much easier to quantify. basketball and hockey become a lot more difficult but are borderline acceptable although i would say basketball more so than hockey. football has too many players on the field to devise a workable algorithm. too many variables to incorporate

 

Can you guys please make an effort to keep things on topic? I've got a World Series game to watch and I really don't want to have to clean up this thread any more than I already have.

Thanks.

 

You have to look up what the win probability added (WPA) is for 3rd down conversions (someone I'm sure has done that analysis) and then compare that to WPA for whatever else it is you want to compare the relative importance of third down conversions to. WPA is in general a very useful and justifiable method of analysis for sports (tells you how much the expected probability of winning increased due to a specific action).

EDIT: here's something else you can do.. just look at correlation with winning: http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2008/01/is-3rd-down-conversion-percentage-good.html

He says the correlation is 0.49 which is pretty high, so 3rd down conversion rate is probably a useful stat to keep track of if you want to know how much something helps you win.

 

Amen sir. Go Mets!

I'm out!

 

what does last in any category mean

 

Well we can disagree, but I severely disagree with you on this one. If the eyeball test is that good, which eyeball do you trust? You basically lose objectivity. You'll also have trouble seeing trends (unless your memory is perfect) that you'd see with stats.

 

We need a Navarro Bowman/Zach Thomas type at linebacker sorry. Misi has got to go. Just like the quarterback cant be ignored, middle linebacker needs to be addressed. The leader of the defense is almost always the MLB. Theyre the quarterback of that side of the team.

 

I'm one of those people that judges Tannehill when he throws a horrible pass that should have been picked off but wasn't. Why wouldn't I? I also do not blame RT17 when he throws a good pass that does get intercepted. That's how you evaluate a QB. And the only thing truly idiotic in this thread is your posts.


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Love the interjection of Russel Wilson yet again in a Tannehill thread.

Wonder how often this has happened the last few seasons.

 

makes sense..

anyone else worried about it as it pertains to our qb?

 

I dont understand what you mean?

 

The Patriots OL is ranked 27th winning the battle at the line of scrimmage. They only dressed 6 players Monday night. The reason they look better than they are is b/c Brady gets rid of the ball on average in 2.1 seconds and is one of the all-time greats at moving around in the pocket. Whereas Brady kept stepping away from sacks Thursday I saw Tannehill step up right into one.

If Tannehill played behind that OL he would probably have been sacked 40 times already.

 

I guess you an I are acting 'idiotic'' for evaluating that way..

 

i'm just saying last in any category is bad

 

He must get on the internet and look up the stats and well, that's all there is to see here. Move along. Lol


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one he doesnt run that offense. you're gripe is with lazor not tannehill if you want him throwing at the 2 second mark. two that is a ridiculous statement to make about tannehill on the patriots. he would do far better than on miami with what he plays in front of. three what are they ranked run blocking. there's a reason you guys wont post that. is the number 1?

 

I mentioned it because of how they use the skillset relative to ours in a clutch situation, here we are keeping the qb on the same spot no matter the circumstance..he literally rolled, scripted, about half the times on one drive than ryan has all season..theres a problem in there when you know that your qb is very good as well at throwing on the run..

 

It's because they're both not pure pocket QBs. Wilson is what Tannehill should aspire to be like.


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this is the down where the qb has the most control of the outcome..

 

Thanks for putting up the stats to support what I've argued already. Somehow Tannehill would "annihilate" in NE though...


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And how much further ahead would he be with someone like Chip Kelly instead of Zac "freaking"Taylor

Give me a break - the kid is a product of circumstance and the ****ed up coaching. Has done pretty good given his circumstances. Could he better - sure but Zac Taylor?????

 

Wow just looked at the poll. Close to 30% flat out think No. Would never have thought it would be that high. Each to his own. Ryan is one of those guys who had the potential to be very good and was in the wrong place at the wrong time. He got paid though

 

are you saying we havent seen the real ryan tannehill yet and the coordinators have inhibited him?

 

my blame is on the GM and not stocking up the oline in the offseason where everyone knew that was our biggest weakness. look at la'ell collins who i wouldve been fine if we spent a first round pick. we could have gotten him with our last fifth round pick. instead we spend it on a defensive back project. watch 71



thats wagner and thomas that he annhilates on the same play btw. not too shabby. easily could have been wearing a miami uni

 

I do believe it is.

 

I voted no. I think he is a serviceable QB. A QB that can go to the playoffs with an elite defense and solid running game. Doubt he could make the necessary plays to win "deep" into the season.

He is not "The Guy". For me he is Joe Flacco without the big plays.

 

it is. just wanted to see their level of honesty

 

Whether he is at fault for several of his recent picks is at minimum in question. Just a statement. Not measured, but I actually think his pocket presence has improved. Having said that he took at least one horrible sack against the Cheats that made me shake my head. And I think his touch is improved.

I wonder what the down and distance is on those. Seems like we have had a lot of 3rd and forevers.

 

I am wondering about Tanny pre-snap. Is he seeing the blitz (most of the time) and/or the defensive scheme and getting into a play that is favorable?

 

I think every fan wanted Collins as a mid to late round pick.


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Wrong place, wrong time?

He was the 56th ranked QB as a 5th year senior in college. His second half rating would have placed him 94th out of 115 qualifiers. His team was ranked #8 in the preseason and finished 7-6 including losing 4 of the last 6 games and out of the top 25. Texas A&M lost 5 games in second half collapses. That somehow Trannehill was drafted #8 in the draft is actually mind-boggling when one looks at it. Except when considering he was picked by the worst GM in Dolphin history which pretty much sums up Ireland in a nutshell.

Then he gets a $17 mil a year contract after leading his team to 23-25 overall record that also involved three end of the year collapses.

I would say, rarely, has there been a player who found himself in the right place at the right time as Tannehill. He has not had to earn anything and been given a long leash by not bringing in any real competition. Just shows how QB desperate this league and Miami has been since Marino retired.

 

Miami was totally set up to steal him in the 5th round with 4 draft picks that round.