1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Is Ryan Tannehill the long term solution at QB?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Chuck Wilson, Nov 1, 2015.

Is Ryan Tannehill the long term answer at QB for us?

  1. Yes

    44 vote(s)
    40.7%
  2. No

    39 vote(s)
    36.1%
  3. Not quite sure, need to see more

    25 vote(s)
    23.1%
  1. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    Except they went to the AFC Championship game and he threw for 4700 yards and 40 TDs with a team that went 2-14 before him. Plus his shoulder and ribs are injured. Not a fair comparison.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  2. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,327
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Colts fans apparently disagree with you.
     
  3. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    Sure it is [emoji57]


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  4. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    You tell me if Tannehill led them that way last season that you'd criticize him the way they are.

    There's reports that his shoulder and ribs are injured. He's missed games to prove it.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  5. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Jesus...563 posts on whether Tannehill is the answer or not. SMH.
     
    brandon27 likes this.
  6. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Can't say fans don't care about their QB :wink2:
     
  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,327
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    PTI is crushing Luck right now, and is way downplaying supposed injuries.

    Take that for whatever you think it's worth.
     
  8. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    It's worth less than toilet paper. He didn't go from 4700 yards and 40 TDs to this without injuries.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  9. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

    13,501
    6,244
    113
    Oct 13, 2008
    New York
    So, what's the verdict?
     
  10. bran

    bran Senior Member

    4,525
    1,505
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    New Hampshire
    mark sanchez went to two afc championships........

    im not debating if he is or isnt, (another funny side note on the colts forum a poster said, "if ryan tannehill was in this division he would have 11 wins a year as well") i just find it interesting that a player who some on here turn themselves into a pretzel to defend, is facing the same criticism on their own boards, with the discussion boiling down to the same arguments being used over here. like i said i think these arguments boil down to frustration, it seems from game to game narratives change depending on outcome.
     
    resnor likes this.
  11. bran

    bran Senior Member

    4,525
    1,505
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    New Hampshire
    [​IMG]
     
  12. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    You're talking about a franchise used to Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck's great seasons so far...

    Since you give any weight to their opinions whatsoever, conduct a poll to see how many would trade Luck for Tannehill straight up.

    And I'm not turning myself into a pretzel to defend Luck. He's got an injured throwing shoulder and several fractured ribs. Plus he's ALREADY shown what he can do and HAS done.

    Tell me, what changed so drastically from one year to the next that would explain away the reports on his injuries and him missing games. Go ahead. I'll wait.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  13. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    Oh and Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl. What's your point? That the Colts are better than 2-14 without him? Are you a believer in the conspiracy that nobody involved in benefited from?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,327
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Andrew Luck is denying knowing anything about broken ribs. If he had/has broken ribs, why rush him back when they won the two without him? Or why keep playing him if he has broken ribs that are affecting his game this badly? The whole thing seems fishy.
     
  15. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    39,159
    21,798
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    San Diego
    It's a real simple evaluation.

    Did the team have success? Was the success due in part to the play of the QB? If your rebuttal to Andrew Luck throwing for 4,700 yards, 40 TDs and taking them to the Champ game is Mark Sanchez, you need to do better. Their defense by the way let up essentially the same amount of ppg as ours last year. Their offense scored 4 more points per game with Trent Richardson as their leading running back.

    Andrew Luck has played like dog sh this year, but has shown ability last year that Tannehill never has, ever. Andrew Luck can go Matt Stafford on us and suck the rest of his career, but I'd bet money he doesn't.
     
    dolphin25 and Fin-O like this.
  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,327
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Well, since we're being told that piece most heavily influencing wins is the QB, the Sanchez must have been part of their success.
     
    bran likes this.
  17. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    Yeah, it's fishy that he's missed games. I've never heard of QBs downplaying their injuries...


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  18. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    It's obvious Sanchez wasn't throwing them into the win column and I've already said I'm not interested in determining what percentage of blame Tannehill is at fault for.

    It's so obvious not all QBs are as big a part of their team's offense as others. Dilfer won a Super Bowl. Does that put him into Montana or Brady territory?

    The difference is Sanchez had a defense and running game and he was able to manage what they asked of him.

    If we're going to ask Tannehill to pass as often as we have, it's obvious he needs to be treated closer to Sanchez than Brady. I've proposed it and so have you, so please stop making it seem like myself and others believe Sanchez was the biggest reason for them getting there because he obviously didn't do as much as Luck to get there...


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  19. bran

    bran Senior Member

    4,525
    1,505
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    New Hampshire
    who is to say a 40 td isnt a fluke? in a horrible divison no less. anybody remember nick foles? colin kaepernick(benched for blaine gabbert) fluke seasons have happened before.

    could you imagine what he would look like facing the jets, bills, patriots defenses 6 times a year instead of jaguars, titans and texans? like i said i dont know what luck and tannehill will become no one does so we will just have to see.
     
    resnor likes this.
  20. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    Compare the stats Sanchez and Luck had on their paths to the AFC Championship game.

    It's intellectually dishonest to suggest they're even in the same stratosphere or that their teams were just as good.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  21. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Yes, and we apply statistics to making flu vaccines and other cures, building roadways based on traffic patterns, stopping terrorism, making our businesses more efficient and millions of other things. That's because those statistics are ACTIONABLE by providing a clearer picture of a sought outcome.

    And like I said- use those statistics to predict what kind of game Tannehill will have this Sunday. Or if it's too hard for one instance, then predict how many TD's he'll throw for the rest of the season. Or how many incompletions, dropped passes, sacks, or any one one criteria you want to solve for. The thing is, you can't though....because of the thousands of variables you can and can't plan for. Plus your initial "data set" is flawed to begin with, because you have no idea how much of the stats were Tannehill and how much was other players doing something spectacular or messing up.

    Both of you said the same thing- statistics are used to predict tendencies, and we accurately make predictions in hundreds of other fields. So if it's exactly the same with NFL quarterbacks, why can't you make a meaningful prediction? Find that answer and you'll find out why your entire argument here is flawed.
     
    resnor likes this.
  22. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Keep in mind the "QB having the most influence of any single player on wins" is either assumed to be true on average, or statistically true (depending on the stat you use). What occurred in a given game requires more of a scalpel and may lead to the conclusion the QB was hardly at all responsible or way more than average responsible .
     
  23. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    Yeah, his seasons so far have been flukes and now he sucks despite the reports on his shoulder and ribs... It's not like his team was garbage without him. Have you even seen Andrew Luck before this season? Seriously. I'm not joking.

    And Kaepernick was obviously an elite athlete that never threw 4700 yards or 40 TDs. Luck didn't have Megatron or Suh either. RG3, same as Kaep but better. Foles was in a system that got found out and had great players surrounding him. How's Kelly doing now? How many rushing yards do they have now without McCoy and Mathis?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  24. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

    2,148
    1,398
    113
    May 3, 2010
    First of all, I was including Dalton in a group of QBs who led their team to victories in the 4th quarter just this past weekend as a demonstration of how frequently it occurs as compared to how seldom it has occurred with Tannehill. I never said Dalton is at the top of the food chain in terms of being clutch. But since you keep heading down this path...

    Easy to pick out a game, a few plays and/or a drive or two to point out poor play or in this case a lack of being clutch. Every QB has those days. Unfortunately, you picked one where the QB followed that with a TD drive to win the game. Against a really good defense. Part of being clutch is to come through when given another chance at the end of the game which is exactly what Dalton did. This wasn't a situation in which he turned it over and then given another opportunity turned it over again like Tannehill did against the Jets in London. He came through. The Bengals won on a TD drive Dalton led. You can call that fortunate if you want. Bill Walsh used to say that "luck" is when preparation meets opportunity. I would say "fortunate" is when skill meets opportunity.

    IMO every QB is going to have their day and get a comeback here and there. Ryan Leaf had 3 GWD in his 4-17 career record as a starter (not too far behind Tannehill's 5 GWD in his 26-29 record). If a QB is "clutch" it will play out over time. As for Dalton he has 12 4th quarter comebacks and 16 GWD during his career record of 47-27-1.

    Think about that...16 games a Dalton led drive in the 4th/OT helped keep the Bengals from losing the game. Without those drives he would have potentially 43 losses to his name instead of 27. Whereas Tannehill has 5 GWD to his 29 losses.

    Which QB would you want leading your team at the end of the game? One that has 16 GWD and only 27 losses or one that has 5 GWD and 29 losses. And which one would say is more clutch? Not a trick question.

    Here is another way of looking at it to see whether a QB is clutch or not:

    Peyton Manning has 54 GWD to go with 90 losses and do you think he isn't clutch? That means for every loss Manning has endured he has led a GWD .6 times.

    Andy Dalton has 16 GWD to go with 27 losses. So for every loss Dalton has endured he has led a GWD .59 times. Just below Peyton Manning.

    Ryan Leaf has 3 GWD to go with 17 losses. So for every loss Leaf has endured he has led a GWD .176 times.

    Ryan Tannehill has 5 GWD to go with 29 losses. So for every loss Tannehill has endured he has led a GWD .172 times. Just below Ryan "friggen" Leaf!
     
  25. yoge

    yoge New Member

    195
    60
    0
    Dec 29, 2013
    So, Luck is having a bad year. He has had three great years before that. I would take that than four mediocre/missing the playoff years Tannehill has had.
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  26. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Oh you can definitely build models to make predictions. Look at Tannehill's past distribution of Y/A for example and you can predict the probability he will have a Y/A less than or equal to some value. More data (games) you have the better on average that model will perform. You can do that with any of his stats.

    If you want something crude for making predictions, just look at his splits: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TannRy00/splits/
    I say "crude" because they often don't show you the distributions. Also, don't forget that sample size matters so you're more likely to get a good prediction the larger the sample size.
     
  27. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    39,159
    21,798
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    San Diego
    Yes, and if you look at his playoff log, he played decently well with a 94 rating and a 9/3 TD/INT ratio.

    They rode the defense (because competition in the regular season is easier than the playoffs for obvious reasons) and when it came time to the playoffs, Sanchez played kinda well.

    The QB play most heavily influencing wins is the QB. Absolutely. But you have to understand it can affect it positively, negatively, or neutral. Great QB can lift a team. Bad QB play can sink a team great at defense. And middle of the road QB play will rely on the rest of the team.
     
    AdamC13 likes this.
  28. bran

    bran Senior Member

    4,525
    1,505
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    New Hampshire
    im not saying he sucks, and yes i have seen him play and he seems to be the luck of the first 2 seasons of his career(23 td 18 int, 23td 9 int) he is what people say tannehill(and every other young qb) he is inconsistent. im just saying pump the brakes on making this guy a guy that walks on water. i find it funny once again people will bend over backwards to defend guy and yet crucify your own guy. tannehill had a back injury and ankle injury but no one cut him slack for it, but with luck it has to be the injuries! no way a player can have a monster year in an awful division and it to be an outlier.
     
    resnor likes this.
  29. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    A guy that walks on water? Oh wow. I'm only saying he's much better than you guys are giving him credit for. Look at what he's done with a team that went 2-14!!! Look at what Tannehill has done with a mediocre team. Stayed mediocre!!!

    Stop being a damn homer and take your QB for what he's worth. Mediocre. He hasn't threaded the needle up or down. He's more efficient than Moore was, for sure, but at the expense of big plays. Why can't he just be closer to Wilson?

    I believe, if he improves on what I mentioned earlier, he can win a Super Bowl. I've said it so many times. Wilson has had OL trouble too and his receivers aren't as good as ours. As a matter of fact their OL is probably even worse than ours now because they lost a top notch center for good. And of course they traded him for a TE that can't block plus Lynch has been injured and Chancellor held out. And they STILL have a better record than us. They likely will for the rest of the season too.

    Before you say I'm making excuses, they've already proven themselves. We should aspire to what they've had. Wilson was a big part of that short lived "dynasty."


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,327
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Sanchez was carried to the playoffs both years. Everyone knows it. You want to move the goalposts now, a common tactic, because he's the worst example to use for QB play influencing wins.
     
  31. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

    30,224
    36,965
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    Jersey
    Philip Rivers is having a great season. The Chargers are 2-6. There are many examples of this throughout the years. Dan Marino has had seasons like that too.

    I'm not going to research multiple examples for you. They're out there though. It's just my opinion.
     
    resnor and Fin D like this.
  32. keypusher

    keypusher Well-Known Member

    1,351
    448
    83
    Nov 29, 2007
    You've probably seen this:

    http://www.footballperspective.com/the-greatest-qb-of-all-time-v-part-ii-career-rankings/

    You have to get down to #15 to find a QB with a losing record (the unlucky Sonny Jurgensen). I always assumed W/L record was completely useless for assessing QBs. Maybe it's not.
     
  33. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

    11,375
    11,392
    113
    Sep 28, 2015
    [​IMG]


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  34. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    39,159
    21,798
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    San Diego
    Dafuq? I wrote just that.

    Seriously, you were one of the more reasonable posters just a few months ago and now you're pulling this stuff. Keep this up and we can no longer be friends ;)

    The Jets carrying Sanchez to the playoffs proves my point 1000%. Did the Indy defense carry Luck? Did the Indy run game led by Trent Richardson carry Luck?

    Which goes back to my original post that you took issue with when bringing up Sanchez.

    Did the team have success? Was the QB integral to that success? You're just running around in circles.

    The biggest influence is QB. But that doesn't mean it's a positive influence. It could be a negative influence. The Jets win the super bowl with Brady, Rodgers Manning. They lose at the AFCCG because they didn't have that. Our team with Brady, Manning (peak), Big Ben, Rodgers gets into the playoffs. We just miss it each year.
     
  35. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Yeah, that's a bit deceptive. He's not ranking those QB's by W/L, he's creating his own formula that he describes here: http://www.footballperspective.com/the-greatest-qb-of-all-time-v-part-i-methodology/

    All kinds of subjective things are in that formula, starting with the calculation for ANY/A (Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt) where you see a passing TD get a weight of 20 and an INT get a weight of 45. He adds more and more stuff of course. Most of those weights are just things he made up.

    So what's his goal here? He's basically trying to come up with a formula that produces a ranking that seems to match what most people would think is a good ranking. There's nothing wrong with that because such a formula can be used for prediction purposes, but you have to understand that his GOAL was to make the list "fit" our intuition.


    So how good is W/L as a predictor? Just take this list:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_wins_by_a_National_Football_League_starting_quarterback

    that is ranked by total wins by a QB, or take that list and rank order by win %, and compare to your intuition. Both work fairly well, though with win % you need to exclude QB's that haven't played too many games.

    For comparison, here's the list for all-time passer rating: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_rating_career.htm
     
    keypusher and DolphinGreg like this.
  36. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

    72,252
    43,684
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    How is it not?
     
  37. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

    52,652
    25,565
    113
    Nov 13, 2009
    We should draft qbs every year. Sign as many as possible in the offseason. Just use 53 qbs to field an entire roster.

    We could then place all the credit/blame on the QB.
     
  38. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    I'm not moving any goalposts... Lol... What was my original argument since you claim I'm moving the goalposts? And btw you were called out since Sanchez had a 94 rating during those playoffs.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  39. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

    1,385
    560
    113
    Oct 11, 2013
  40. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

    1,385
    560
    113
    Oct 11, 2013
    Both of those QBs have winning records. Keep trying.
     

Share This Page