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Ryan Tannehill’s struggles in divisional road games mirror those of Miami Dolphins

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Sceeto, Nov 5, 2015.

  1. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    i think its playing loose. he plays tight if that makes any sense
     
  2. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    my problem with the debates is 80% of the comparisons are to rodgers and brady. i get the sense that the criticism isnt going to stop until w draft the next marino which is nuts imo. you have to get 22 to 30 players to win a championship. its ridiculous to get hung up on one position so much. got news for you guys don strock and david woodley came closer to winning a super bowl than dan marino ever did. and if not for the wfl and the sea of hands game bob griese might have had four rings. we're not winning with one position and as soon as we get one thats good enough at a position its time we address the positions that arent good enough
     
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  3. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm certainly part of the 20 percent, who is doing a comparative analysis to those dudes?...mine is all based on isolation and nothing else.
     
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  4. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I meant to post this yesterday. I collected a little data in order to compare Tannehill to someone else. I just selected Luck because he's about the same age but is widely regarded to be more developed as a passer, maybe even ideal given his level of experience.

    So here's what I found...


    Tannehill’s average output per game over his career (outside of the AFC East) is 255 yds, 1.5 TDs, 0.8 INT. Luck’s average output per game over his career (outside of the AFC East) is 262 yds, 1.9 TDs, 1 INT. I don’t know about you, but it looks to me like both RT and AL are pretty close with the nod probably going to AL. The yardage is virtually equal. AL edges RT in TDs while RT edges AL in avoiding INTs.

    RT’s production changes by -30 yds, -0.2 TDs and +0.4 INTs per game when facing the AFC East while AL’s production changes by +51 yds, -0.3 TDs, +0.1 INT per game when facing the AFC East.

    It’s obvious that AL12 puts up a lot more yardage than RT against AFC East opponents having put up a several 300+ yard games. However, neither QB benefits when it comes to TDs and INTs. They both go in the wrong direction supporting the notion that the AFC East is a tough division. Generally speaking, RT and AL both have 2-7 records against the AFC East in their careers. It’s a tough division to play! I didn’t include the fact that AL is also 0-2 against the AFC East in the Play-offs. The Pats are a tough team to beat!

    Considering how strong the division’s defensive coaches have been (Belichick, Ryan, Schwartz, etc.) and the fact they each play RT twice a year, it’s understandable he’s struggled a bit and that he doesn’t quite live up to the levels of AL. AL is simply a better QB and should be beating RT in the numbers.

    But when you consider that AL may be the best prospect in the modern era and should be viewed as doing about as well against the AFC East as can be expected of any young QB, you must admit that even being close is a testament to Tannehill.

    In fact, if we exclude their rookie years and isolate just the last 3 seasons (2013-2015) we see the two QBs are even closer together than we would’ve thought:

    Tannehill vs AFC East 2013-2015:
    241 yds, 1.5 TDs, 1.3 INTs

    Luck vs AFC East 2013-2015:
    285 yds, 1.8 TDs, 1.4 INTs


    I’d be interested to see how RT's stats compare to AL's in regards to the AFC South (in and out of that division) if anyone wants to look at that. I think the evidence here suggests that the AFC East is a tough division and that if anything, Tannehill is actually moving in the right direction.
     
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  5. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Oh, I know. Just saying, if people truly thought other players were as much at fault, or more at fault, than Tannehill, they'd post about them. The fact that people constantly harp on Tannehill tells me that, despite what that they might say, they truly believe Tannehill is the problem with this team.
     
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  6. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Look at the list of active threads...the only ones people are posting in are the ones about the QB or the HC.

    There's a lack of originality in thread-creation and there are too many people who are content to argue about the same 1 or 2 topics without moving on to something else.

    I forget who called the forum out on it but no one's talking about the DBs or the LBs or any of the other problems on the team. It's not that Tannehill is the biggest problem, it's just people won't move past these same old conversations and no one is presenting any factual analysis to move the conversations forward.
     
  7. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Nobody talks about them because there's no debate over them.

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk
     
  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I get that, Stringer, but on the list of problems with the Miami Dolphins, Tannehill is so far down the list, it's pretty ridiculous how much criticism goes on in regards to him.
     
  9. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Wow, good stuff there. As for Luck throwing for more yards against the AFC East, that can be attributed to a couple of things. First, he's not a division opponent, so they can't game plan as well against him and second, he's had to throw quite a bit to keep up with the Pats.

    I think it's pretty clear that the AFC East is much tougher than the South. However, and I know not everybody agrees, Luck was given a team that went 2-14 so they rely on him a lot more than we rely on Tannehill. Teams really only have to worry about Luck, whereas Miller is just as big a threat as Tannehill is.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  10. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Miller is only a big threat when the oline isn't playing like a bag of dog crap. How do you think Miller would look on the Colts?

    I know we disagree on the Colts, and I don't know how to reconcile it, but I don't believe that the QB made a difference of 9 wins on his own.
     
  11. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    For me it's Russell who was available. Russell is ahead of Tanny individually. Not talking team success here. Rodgers and Brady are the best, we bring them up as examples not to hold Tanny to their standards per se, but to illustrate the effect a QB can have, on team success.

    But if you chart Tanny against other young QBs he compares favorably against some. But Derek Carr is lighting it up right now. So are a few others. Time will tell.
     
  12. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Well there was a new coach. And Arians was the brains of that operation IMO. But would Arians win that many with Sorgi at the helm? It's both coaching and the QB mostly responsible for their success IMO. I'm not comparing him to Aaron Rodgers but to see how much effect a QB has go check their 2013 record with and without Aaron. That's how much effect a QB CAN have.
     
  13. Phins Up Wins Up

    Phins Up Wins Up Banned

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    We all know LBs, DBs, and OL are problems to this team but some people such as yourself think Tannehill is a franchise quarterback and is fine the way he is. That's why there are threads about him. You even acknowledge this yourself so why so much complaining? Pretty obvious why there are threads. It's a divided issue. Honestly just a dumb question on your part and more of the straw man you've been doing. Of course everyone knows OL, LB, and DB need improvement. No one said otherwise. But so does Tannehill.
     
  14. Phins Up Wins Up

    Phins Up Wins Up Banned

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    I've been on the Tannehill side of the debate up until this season. It's his 4th year and supposed to be his break out year. No more excuses. Up until recently most people were always for Tannehill. I mean look at the poll. About 55% said no or need more time. Take that poll a year ago and probably only 25-30 say that. Maybe even less. I was really high on Tannehill before the year but he just hasn't taken that next step like I thought he would. And he has made Jordan Cameron look like a practice squad tight end when he really is a top 5 maybe top 3 tight end. But I'm sure you will say otherwise and say he sucks to defend Tannehill.
     
  15. Phins Up Wins Up

    Phins Up Wins Up Banned

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    Lmao! You mean in that Texans game when he threw it 5 yards and the receiver ran it himself for another 50? The 5 yard slant to Matthews, the screen pass to Miller, the pass to Landry all went over 40 yards but were all short passes. They go down as 40 yard pass plays but really aren't "deep ball" throws. Yeah great deep ball. Oops.....
     
  16. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=-

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    Epic strawman.
     
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  17. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    with wilson i see a guy who only excels when the plays break down. i see a below average qb when the play is allowed to develop. i think he's a very exciting qb but i dont equate excitement with being good. i'm ok with people disagreeing with me on wilson because he's got a sort of fairy tale story so far and its incredibly difficult to judge a guy who is poor when the play goes as planned but at the same time is the best in the league when the play blows up. God bless Carroll though. I wouldnt even know how to coach the guy. OK let the DE get by you and attempt to sack Wilson. Wilson will juke him out and roll either left or right. You the receivers keep running. Eventually he will heave a hail mary prayer to one of you and we'll have a forty yard gain. On two. Break!

    i stand by my prediction though. by age 30 he will be strictly a backup qb. once the lateral quickness goes he's done for IMO. It generally starts to go at 27. BTW you know how many times Wilson has won a game when his defense has given up 24 or more points? ZERO
     
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  18. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    If you remember back to third game of preseason when we played Thomas at LT...they had Tannehill doing alot of those very fast passes out to the WR...similar to what we see Brady doing with Pats. I believe Tannehill stayed pretty clean ..yes I know wd only scored 7 points..but I wonder why they havent really done that at all during regular season. I like the idea of mixing some of that in.
     
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  19. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    with our oline that would make a lot of sense. which is why we havent done it probably
     
  20. sad dolfan

    sad dolfan Banned

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    I see people just want deep throws. That would make them happy. Problem is there is a defense that on obvious passing plays is set up to take away deep passes. So you REALLY want him chucking it downfield into a deep coverage defense?

    Then how mad will people be when he gets picked off?

    Legit question, if he started hitting deep passes regularly, but we still lost the game, would you be happy? Seems like all some people want are fun to watch deep balls.

    JMO.
     
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  21. Kud_II

    Kud_II Realist Division

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    Reiterating Tannehill isn't elite is like beating a dead horse at this point.
     
  22. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    i think thats part of the problem some posters have. They confuse exciting with good
     
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  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Again, a majority of those polled were supportive of Tannehill. Those who said No were the smaller amount.
     
  24. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Unless you're Tom Brady and the Patriots, you absolutely have to test people deep to keep defenses honest. On average we don't get good enough field position every game in order to play that same way.

    What I don't understand is we brought all these guys in at WR who "supposedly" weren't body catchers and still Tannehill isn't putting the ball up there for them to make a play. Almost everything is precision-based passing.
     
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  25. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Nah, he didn't but he was the biggest factor in the 9 game difference. I'm not a big follower of them but I know Hilton played a part in it as well, as did Reggie Wayne. Those guys played their asses off, but also much more effectively with a QB like Luck. QBs like Luck just elevate everybody on offense.

    Not sure how their run blocking is this year but I'm positive Miller would look much better than Gore has. An extra 20 yards a game on average and more TDs so far.


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  26. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Nah, we want more big plays. Deep balls and great scrambles. His YPA is way too low. Moore had a higher YPA, so if he could at least match him without the INTs, that would be really great.

    That's not all we want him to improve on though, but I've already stated this numerous times, as have others.


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  27. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    I don't know what you were seeing. In the Titans game it was mostly quick short stuff. Maybe it wasn't the play to which you are referring, but they were short quick plays for the same effect, but actually better. I know what play to which you are referring and specifically, I hate that play. I am glad they haven't been doing it much this year and that they have, at times, been getting more creative with the short quick stuff. That play always screams pick six to me. Can't stand it.
     
  28. Phins Up Wins Up

    Phins Up Wins Up Banned

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    Yeah because 43% is the majority. 57% said no or I need more time. Geez you people. You think the 3rd option I need more time screams confidence in Tannehill? If only 43% of people are all in for a player you think those are good results? Nope the majority of people say the jury is still out on Tannehill or they just don't believe in him.
     
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  29. BigNastyDB13

    BigNastyDB13 Well-Known Member

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    Throwing it 20+ yards all the time is unrealistic but it's not asking too much to ATTEMPT a throw past the sticks on 3rd down is it? We throw more 1-3 yard passes on 3rd and 5+ plus. It's extremely aggravating and pretty damn obvious why we re the next to last 3rd down team. I'm sure it has nothing to do with our QB tho.
     
  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    What is the success percentage in the league when in third and long? Pretty low, I think.
     
  31. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    We're talking about 3rd and 6 type of situations. It's brutal watching this offense.
     
  32. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    How often are they in 3rd and 6?

    That's still 3rd and long.
     
  33. hazed819

    hazed819 Well-Known Member

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    If you wstch the game defenses play us in a box because they know we arent playing past 10 yards. The only out we got is if the rungame is good. Otherwise they play in the box. Safteys up all game, good luck beating decent teams with that strategy
     
  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    And yet, Tannehill has been hitting deep balls. Maybe teams have caught on to all the smoke screens?
     
  35. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    You can't really blame Tannehill for this loss. The fumble was costly and boneheaded but other than that, he played a pretty good game. No team is going to lose when your special teams are this bad, when your defense gives up 33 points and when you really can't do anything well on defense. Miami moved the ball pretty well today but just didn't capitalize.
     
  36. hazed819

    hazed819 Well-Known Member

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    Deep ball - singular

    Dont gotta look far to see what deep balls look like Taylor peppered us with like 4 today. Granted the Refs helped but the ball qas perfectly placed
     
  37. hazed819

    hazed819 Well-Known Member

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    I agree its not his fault we lost but had he been more than a game manager, a playmaker maybe we could have had more of a chance.
     
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  38. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    It's easy to complete those when the CB who is covering said WR is literally falling over on multiple plays. Credit to Taylor for getting it there and for Watkins for creating the opportunity but this was as much on Grimes who played horribly today.
     
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  39. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Tanne was playing pretty well in this game, but the fumble was the turning point of this game and that goes down as bad pocket awareness.
     
  40. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I want talking about only today. He's had a number of deep balls this season.
     

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