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Is Ryan Tannehill the long term solution at QB?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Chuck Wilson, Nov 1, 2015.

Is Ryan Tannehill the long term answer at QB for us?

  1. Yes

    44 vote(s)
    40.7%
  2. No

    39 vote(s)
    36.1%
  3. Not quite sure, need to see more

    25 vote(s)
    23.1%
  1. Phins Up Wins Up

    Phins Up Wins Up Banned

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    When he has 3 or 4 other options down field but always checks down to the guy at the line of scrimmage? That's Lazors plan? Which is even more frustrating on 3rd down. Sure man.
     
  2. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    I question this only because it doesn't make sense for Lazor to put his coaching future on the line because his QB changes all of his amazing play calls into short passes. He'd have to be some kind of...some kind of idiot...hmmm

    But still, it doesn't make sense that an OC would let his QB continue to neuter his play calls like that. If he's the OC, he should step in and do something. He was in danger of losing his job too so I don't see why he would lose his job over bad QB calls. If you were someone's supervisor and you knew the organization would more than likely fire you for your subordinate's performance rather than the subordinate, would you continue to let him freelance with your instructions or would you rein in his foolishness? My guess is Lazor is calling these plays. I just don't think Tannehill is clever enough to recognize when a play should be changed. We did get reports that the building was in meltdown mode last preseason when he effed up all of the calls. What we could glean was that he didn't just audible into what he wanted. If a play was called and the defense showed a certain alignment that would counter the play, he'd have a couple of pre-arranged options to then counter the defense at the line. Apparently he just kept making the wrong read/adjustment.

    Basically, Lazor is problematic in that his play calls seem to be countered at a high rate and Tannehill is problematic in that his changes are seemingly wrong at a higher than normal rate. Not to say that if the switch fails schematically it's on Tannehill, but at the same time you see some situations where he just brain farts in decision making. Decision making pre and post snap is his biggest downfall IMO. Just as an aside, I voted no in this poll when it first went up.
     
  3. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    Ryan Tannehill is 13th in the NFL in air yards. So, he's not the king of check downs everyone seems to think he is.

    http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-air-yards/2015/
     
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  4. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't get why people think he'd have to change a play to check down?

    You think there is a play call where all the wide receivers run 9 routes? That's why they have the term captain check down. Tannehill could be given ZERO freedom at the line and still check down.
     
  5. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You have, or have not read the explanation of this in the chatter threads? Just wondering because you're typing as if you didn't.
     
  6. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    When this team falls behind by two tds I always know the game is over because this qb has never brought us back.If I feel this way I am sure the players feel the same way.This is why we can never win a shootout like other teams do.You score more than 24 pts the game is over for us.
     
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  7. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    "While it isn't a clear cut statistic...may lead to some inaccuracies for a day following each game."

    I really doubt a guy like Palmer is only two slots ahead of Tannehill, first of all, but let's assume that's true for this statistic.

    What that statistic shows is not that Tannehill has a high YPA or makes big throws often. If anything it shows he has a lot of total passing yards even without YAC, that's it. That could still mean a LOT of checks downs and short passes that accumulate to a high yardage total, not a high average.

    So, in short, that statistic proved nothing. YPA, average distance thrown past the line of scrimmage, rushing yards and total TDs are much better at determining the explosiveness of a QB.

    Edit: That's why a guy like Taylor is currently 21 slots below him on that list but is ranked number 3, yes THIRD OVERALL IN THE NFL, in YPA, while Tannehill is at 14 despite the huge aberration in the one game where he racked up a ton of YAC.

    Source: http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt


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  8. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Anyone who watches the games realizes we are an intermediate to short passing team, it's actually sad how excited we all get when a deep ball is actually completed....I look around the league and it's actually kind of common.

    Myself included, it's telling how excited we get on those rare occasions.

    Sucks to to be us.
     
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  9. bakedmatt

    bakedmatt Well-Known Member

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    Don't look at the total air yards. Look at the air yards/attempt.
     
  10. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Exactly. He's 14th, just like he is in YPA. That's not good enough. That's middle of the road, that's mediocre.


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  11. bakedmatt

    bakedmatt Well-Known Member

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    Rocky's point was to say he doesn't deserve the captain checkdown moniker, particularly if he's ahead of some elite QBs on that list.
     
  12. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Sorry, but yes he does. We'll see what the stats are at the end of the season. Even if he does come ahead of some elite QBs in this strange statistic, we're really grasping at straws to find some evidence of Tannehill being anything more than mediocre. Those guys are elite for many reasons.

    Even this weird statistic with little credibility nobody has ever heard of shows he's mediocre. The vast majority of stats throughout his college and professional career show Tannehill is mediocre.


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  13. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Also, if you wanna look at the Air Yards per Attempt, Matt Moore was #4 in 2011. Rodgers, who is somehow behind Tannehill in this statistic at this moment, was #1 overall.


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  14. bakedmatt

    bakedmatt Well-Known Member

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    Just evidence to point out that he's not captain checkdown (only throwing short passes) as was suggested in the thread.
     
  15. bakedmatt

    bakedmatt Well-Known Member

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    I'm sorry I don't get your point.
     
  16. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    He isn't necessarily Alex Smith but he's not much more dynamic if you check their YPA throughout their careers.

    As a matter of fact, he was 4 spots behind of him in YPA in 2014 (28, 24 respectively). Ahead by two spots in 2013 (27, 29 respectively). Couldn't find Smith in 2012. I'm assuming he didn't qualify because Kaep replaced him so neither got enough reps to qualify.

    So yes, he definitely deserves the Captain Checkdown moniker and the Alex Smith comparisons.


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  17. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    That same stat you told me to look at, Matt Moore was ranked #4 overall in 2011. Rodgers, who Tannehill is lagging behind in that stat (for the time being), was #1 at it in 2011.

    Point being, wait until the season is over to evaluate Tannehill on Air Yards Per Attempt, which again, he's mediocre even at that. An overwhelming amount of statistics show Tannehill has always been mediocre. QB rankings, ratings, YPA, wins, losses, big games, divisional games, college, pros, whatever.


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  18. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I keep seeing all this checkdown crap... I mean, lets take a look here, how many of these plays that Lazor calls have 2 WR's running crossing routes 5 yards down the field, and one deep option? That deep option still, is only about 10-12 yards down field by the time the pressure is at the QB. There's not a lot you can do there. We're stuck running a gameplan to counter our terrible OL. These aren't checkdowns, these are designed plays. There's a lot of attempts at picks and rubs to get guys in positions to get yards after the catch. We aren't really setting ourselves up to succeed on offense with our game plan. Those are checkdowns, they're designed that way for the most part. Lazor loves it.

    All in all, aside from the strip sack, Ryan had a good game. On that play, Fox was beyond terrible, but IMO, Ryan shares the blame. He reacted to the instant pressure, which is good, but then he didn't secure the football... at all. I'll give him props for trying to make something from nothing, but ball security needs to be first and foremost on that play. It's inexcusable, and it happens far too much for him. The OL doesn't help in those instances, but he's got to secure the football.

    The bad snap to start the game. That's a terrible snap. It's high, it's outside, its a rocket. It's, I think something Tannehill has to get his hands on (more so than he did) and get it under control however.

    There's issues from Ryan still with the speed of him recognizing things as well in the passing game. It's concerning. Given a useless QB coach though, it's a little understandable.

    This offensive system Bill Lazor is giving us is designed to use the short passing game, similar to the running game. Short, safe, then put it on the WR's to rack up the YAC. Now that we've gone to more 2 TE sets to help the protection up front, it limits the depth of your passing game even more. There's scheme problems here, big time, and there's really no solution for it at this point because it's a talent issue more than likely. Even the deep ball to Stills, it's not that "deep" because we just don't have time to set it up.

    Sure, you can get on the offense for only scoring 17 points yesterday... You can't forget though that we gave up TWO, 100 yard rushers yesterday, and gave up over 150 yards to one single WR. You aren't going to win that way. EVER. Throw on top of that our average starting field position, which was TERRIBLE all day due to poor special teams play and penalties, and you really aren't going to win that way, regardless of who's under center likely.
     
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  19. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    As I sat in pure misery. Being in the TB market, I decided to lay on the couch, watch the TB Bucs, who I despise....

    Tannehill 27/36 309 8.6 0 TD 0 INT 2 Sacks 1 fumble
    Winston 19/36 249 6.9 1 TD(Rush) 0 INT 0 Sacks 0 Fumbles

    Both scored about the same points 17-18

    ....and I came to the realization, holy cow, one game stats mean absolutely nothing. The difference between the two QBs today were night and day. Winston's supporting cast is FAR worse then Ryan's.

    And I just sat and thought....how funny is it, Miami fans complain about lack of a supporting cast....

    Last thought, Ive always looked at ESPNs QBR stat as just a joke because I don't agree with everything in it..But maybe their onto something. Yesterdays QBR for Tannehill 22.1 - Winston 64.9. I mean thats what my eyes told me. Tannehill wasn't close to Winston..Then I looked up QBR for the year...

    Guess who was absolutely DEAD LAST. 32nd in the NFL. Ole Ryan Tannehill himself. 33.6. So I wanted to dig into that number and find out, why? Sacks has something to do with it for sure. But you know what he's dead last in the NFL in? Number of points attributed by the QB over the season. -18.9 points.

    That is just nuts
     
  20. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I'm not sure I'd go so far as to say he's the absolute worst starter but it is a damning statistic. It's somewhat valid, there's SOMETHING to it.


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  21. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Interesting. And a bit terrifying. Probably a bit misleading too. I assume they hang the 7 on him after the strip sack fumble too when calculating that? To me, that makes it a bit misleading. I mean, yeah, he turned the ball over, and it's a terrible play by him to not secure the football. But, we also have a defensive unit for a reason. They were quite terrible yesterday. Two 100 yard rushers, a WR with 150+. There's no real statistical formula you can go by, they're all a bit misleading in some ways with football being so team oriented.

    The offense as a whole right now, isn't passing the eye test. It's easy to say QB, he shares a lot in the blame, but as I said earlier, I don't think there's a whole lot of help from Lazor and his scheme here, and the scheme we're forced to run with how bad the OL has been.

    DJ's been harpin on it all year, it's way beyond broken record status (lol sorry deej), but he's right. If Lazor would put Ryan on the move more, and if Ryan would get on the move more on his own to make plays, things would be a lot different for this offense.
     
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  22. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    I don't think he's close to the worst starter in the league. Just pointing it out...
     
  23. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Not saying you think so, I'm just referring to the statistic.


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  24. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    I agree. Which is why I have never paid attention to the QBR stat before. But I think that type of stat certainly holds SOME water. It is just alarming to me, that taking into account so many factors, that Tannehill is dead last.

    I think Ryans going to have to get out and run on his own. It's just so hard to cut off half the field for your QB, often. Its okay to do it in certain situations. But in terms of getting him killed, cutting off half the field, limiting his options, etc. Getting him on the run a lot is something I don't agree with.
     
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  25. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    I always felt that Tannehill would grow into the position more and he has improved greatly since he was drafted. That said there is clearly something missing. Some of it is probably attributable to the strange play calling from Lazor and screwing up the flow of the game. Freakin Omar always talks about a killer instinct from a Qb. Now we all know how most of us feel about Omar, but I think he is clearly onto something with that. In 4 years I have yet to see this guy put his big boy pants on and take over a game. It's never happened.

    We have him for one more year before the team can escape from his contract, so that gives him the rest of the year and next year to either get it or get gone. We'll see how it goes and I am rooting for him, but I just don't see it based on what we've already seen.
     
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  26. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    I was thinking that same thing when I watched Stidhom (a true freshman at Baylor) hit Coleman in stride for an 81 yard TD pass this past Thursday.

    Before Tannehill hit Matthews on an 8 yard slant that turned into a 53 yard TD against the Texans it had been "1,009" pass attempts since the last time Miami completed a pass beyond 50 yards (a 53 yard play to Wallace against Carolina on 11/24/13).

    Then to watch Taylor throw two beautiful passes over the top of our defense...Jeez, it would be nice to have a QB that can throw a deep ball.
     
  27. Phins Up Wins Up

    Phins Up Wins Up Banned

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    Good well thought out post. Tannehill fans will bring up his yards and say he plays well. But a lot of his yards and some of his TDs this year are in garbage time. This team gets blown out on a regular basis.
     
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  28. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    That touchdown Taylor threw from the 50 yard line and dropped it into Watkins bucket was a thing of beauty.

    To Tannehill's credit, he did have a couple nice throws yesterday and Buffalo dared him to ditch the short stuff.
     
  29. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Started Watkins in FF, Grimes has been playing hurt.


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  30. jdallen1222

    jdallen1222 Well-Known Member

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    Im slowly becoming less & less of a Tannehill supporter. His numbers look good, when its garbage time.
     
  31. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    If that's the case, wow... What's your source? Is there a list of how often QBs hit deep balls? I believe it, I just want to compare QBs and offenses.


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  32. daphins

    daphins A-Style

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    I think he's adequate. Thinking back on the list of Fiedler, Green, Ferrorte, Culpepper, Beck, Lemon, and Henne I'm perfectly fine with him behind center for the foreseeable future. He's not a world beater, but he's not a liability not is he over priced. On most days he's adequate, and on others he shines a bit brighter.


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  33. AdamC13

    AdamC13 Well-Known Member

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    Source for 1,009?

    Play-by-play on ESPN + my brain :lol:

    7th attempt in Carolina game out of 42 attempts + 180 attempts the rest of the year + 590 attempts in 2014 + 200 attempts leading up to Texans game + Matthews on 8 yard slant for 53 yard TD on 4th pass attempt of game...

    42-7 = 35 + 180 + 590 + 200 + 4 = 1,009

    Splits have individual QBs stats breaking down passes for every 10 yards. There may be some services out there for a price like profootballfocus that keeps track, but I don't have a membership to that. They might do their evaluations based on film and interpretation of throw as well.
     
  34. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Wow, good job. It feels like it's been over a thousand attempts since we've seen a 50 yard bomb lol.


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  35. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think we only had one or two TDs last year from outside the 20.
     

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