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Questions still remain at QB

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Fin-O, Nov 26, 2015.

  1. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    i have awareness and presence as the same thing.
     
  2. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    i dont think anyone has said that ryan is bad, I question whether he has enough to win a champ.
     
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  3. Shane Falco

    Shane Falco Banned

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    I totally agree. But I still want to see a decent OC and decent OL first.

    But then again I have no say at all.

    I wish Ross was my buddy!
     
  4. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    It's all a moot point now, and we're wasting bandwidth debating it.
    The fact is, this team WILL have a new head coach next season and that coach will want to pick his own QB. We may keep Tannehill around for another season, depending on who we can get via the draft, trade or free agency, but his days as a starter for the Dolphins will be pretty much over once this season ends.
     
  5. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    poster miamiron.
     
  6. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Your first sentence is false.
     
  7. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    ok..well, he'll get another year.
     
  8. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    4th quarter when behind is when the defense knows we're gonna pass. Wanna guess if our line can stop a pass rush...especially when the defense knows it's coming?
     
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  9. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Actually Id love to see how that is false.
     
  10. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Do you realize you are blaming everything but the QB? Let me help.

    "Ryan certainly has struggled in the 4th Qtr, but when we are in obvious passing downs his OL sure doesn't help much"

    Your'e Welcome.
     
  11. Wildcat23

    Wildcat23 Here kitty kitty

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    Eh, I account awareness as pre snap reads as well.
     
  12. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    yeah I would categorize that dept differently..

    awareness in the pocket to me is the ability to multitask, vision of the rush, anticipate where the break is coming from quickly, situational football.
     
  13. Wildcat23

    Wildcat23 Here kitty kitty

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    To each his own, just semantics at this point. You can encompass a multitude of things under the umbrella of awareness.
     
  14. Shane Falco

    Shane Falco Banned

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    Well, never mind Romo.

    He just broke his collarbone again it looks like.
     
  15. SCall13

    SCall13 ThePhins QB

    It's bothersome because Tannehill IS in the PRIME of his career. He shows flashes that are very impressive and then turns around and looks like crap. A FAIR amount of his issues are, without a doubt, the offensive line. It's hard to to be consistent behind the olines that Tanny has had to play behind. In fact, you have to give him kudos for his toughness. Remember what happened to David Carr (a guy who might have been very good had he not been physically and mentally crushed). Tannehill's toughness is commendable. But I have noticed a little bit of happy feet this year that he hasn't had before. Many of his throws have been off target because his feet aren't set and he's not allowing himself to pass in rhythm. It's part his fault, part the line's fault. I think getting pressure has gotten into his head a bit at this point. Notice against the Titans and Texans, he was able to settle into a rhythm and it showed. But if he senses pressure early, it effects him the rest of the game. It messes with his rhythm, decision making, etc. Some of this COULD be alleviated by being able to audible. But that begs the question: is simply not allowed to or is he not capable of it. Ryan Tannehill, right now, is not an answer to our problems. But to be fair, how can we make a fair assessment until he has a solid offensive line and is given freedom to change plays?

    That article is WAY over the top. And I don't believe Tannehill has that much freedom to audible. What's Lazor talking about when he says he wants audibles to be incognito? Audibles from any other team are basically blasted out for the world to see. I'm thinking that the only audible Tanny is allowed to is from run to pass or vice-versa.
     
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  16. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    I'm not saying Tannehill is all-world in the 4th quarter, but I'd like to see some context to those stats. I've always believed 4th quarter stats can be very misleading because often times QBs are throwing balls up in garbage time just trying to make something happen.

    The Jets game in London is a perfect example. Tannehill threw two 4th quarter interceptions on 4th down when he just threw the ball up for grabs. Off the top of my head I can think of 6 examples in the last few years where Tannehill drive us down the field within the last few minutes to either win or tie the game. He hasn't been a great 4th quarter QB, but I don't think he's nearly as bad as the numbers may say.
     
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  17. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    However, the context is that we've been in a TON of close games that have been decided in the 4th quarter, last year we had 11 games where we had the lead in the 4th, another game where we were tied, and yet another where we were behind by 1 point, that's 13 of the 16 games that were up for grabs in the 4th quarter, we got 8 wins and Tanne had a 79.9 QB rating.
     
  18. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    Completely fair, but he's had a bunch of clutch drives too. I guess my point is that he's not constantly bad in the 4th quarter, but he can do better.
     
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  19. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Here is my concern, the pattern that is there, these are career stats;

    1st and 2nd down = 91.2 QB rating

    3rd down = 74.2 QB rating
    ------------------------------------------------
    1st through 3rd quarters = 88.3 QB rating

    4th quarter = 76.5 QB rating

    This is a bad trend, signifying that he struggles in clutch situations, and that is not really a learnable trait, imo he will always struggle in clutch situations.

    As I've said many times, I'd live with all his issues if he was a clutch performer, and that I think a team is spinning it's wheels with a QB that struggles in clutch situations.

    I think a great example of what a QB does for a team is the Steelers, during the Cowher era the Steelers had a great team, for years, reaching the SB once, and multiple AFC championship games, but they never won the SB until Ben came to town, even with the great team, it just wasn't enough, add a franchise QB, 3 SB's with a 2-1 record.

    That ability to play in the big moments is what gets you where you want to be, I think it's time to start the search for a new QB.
     
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  20. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Finster, here's my question: on third down, and in fourth quarters, are we normally in passing situations?

    What it seems I've seen, is a team in obvious passing situations on third downs and fourth quarters, with an oline that routinely has allowed 4 rushers to decimate them, allowing teams to drop 7 guys into coverage. I've been complaining about this trend for like three seasons.

    So, it always comes back, fix the oline, fix the playcalling.
     
  21. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Brandon Weeden, and Tony Romo from yesterday make that statement false.
     
  22. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    As I mentioned, in 2014 we had the lead in the 4th 11 times, tied in one, and down by 1 in another, that's 13 of the 16 games in which we were not in pass only mode, and only 8 wins, and his 4th quarter rating was 79.9, his rating the other 3 quarters was 98.9.

    That is a stark difference, 98.9 to 79.9, and it's part of a pattern,

    on 1st and 2nd down in 2014 = 99.9 QB rating, 3rd down = 77.4 QB rating.

    In his first 3 years we were in so many games that were decided in the 4th, in 2013 10 games we had the lead, 2 games were tied and one game down by 3, again that's 13 games that were not pass only mode, and again only 8 wins.

    1st and 2nd down in 2013 = 87.2 QB rating

    3rd down = 74.6
    -------------------------------------------------
    1st through 3rd quarters = 85.5

    4th quarter = 64.3

    So in those 2 years, thats 21 games where we had the lead in the 4th quarter, only 16 wins, add the ties and that's 24 games, still only 16 wins, add the other 2 games where we were down by 3 and 1 and that's 26 games, still only 16 wins.

    This is a pattern that matches the eye test, and sometimes you have to come to the conclusion, that dog just ain't gonna hunt, and you get a new dog.

    Whenever a pattern starts to emerge, you have to pay attention to that pattern, and patterns like this are hard to dispute.
     
  23. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Yet another damning piece of evidence. The writing is on the wall. And please guys, don't play the "you just wanna say you were right" card. We all want the Dolphins to win, we're all fans. It's just that it's more and more obvious what the case is.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  24. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    But we WERE in pass mode. Everyone raged about the limited carries for Miller last year, just like this year.

    Instead of looking at only leads, and rating, why don't you look at those games, and also look at run/pass ratio. Currently all you've shown is that situationally, we weren't in a pass situation, yet we all saw the games, and we ask saw the abandonment of the run game.
     
  25. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    So, also, we're complaining that were 16-5 in games with a lead in the fourth quarter???
     
  26. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Is that a serious question?
     
  27. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    So you jump at the first sample size you can find?

    Come on man, you know that most qbs play well behind good OL play. Its a general statement and Im really shocked you guys would think that Romo's crappy game disproves an entire theory.

    Also Brandon Weeden is a Texan.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  28. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yes. Unless you believe that any game with a lead of any size in the fourth should be an automatic win.

    16-5 in games with a lead at some point in the fourth. That doesn't seem like a bad record. It's like a 75% win percentage, isn't it? What are records of all the other teams with leads in the fourth over the same time span, for reference.?
     
  29. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Look, if you can't call a bird a bird, I don't know what to say, you think it's OK to have a 75% win percentage in games that we have a lead in the 4th quarter, then I have nothing else to say.
     
  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Again, that number, in and of itself, is MEANINGLESS. You've given zero context. You haven't even given what you think would be a good number. You haven't looked at what other teams look like in games where they have lead at some point in the fourth.

    And losing games with a lead in the fourth has a ton to do with the defense.

    So, is it your position that if the Dolphins have a 1 point lead to start the fourth, that they should 100% of the time win that game?

    Hell, why limit to the fourth? My new position is that if we have a lead after the first quarter, my expectation is that we win 100% of those games.
     
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  31. pmj

    pmj New Member

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    I would venture to guess 75% is pretty good across the league...
     
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  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I think there's a lot of statistical evidence Tannehill isn't good in "clutch" situations, especially when trailing in the 4th quarter or near the end of the 4th. His stats just go way down (check out his splits when trailing with 2 or 4 minutes to go):
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TannRy00/splits/

    But he's well above average when tied or leading with 2-4 minutes to go, and the Dolphins from 2011-2014 rank bottom 5 in winning % when blowing a 4th quarter lead (this means that we give up a lead at ANY time during the 4th quarter.. doesn't mean we lose the game):
    https://brickwallblitz.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/screen-shot-2015-07-13-at-5-52-22-pm.png

    That right there is on the defense.

    So.. just from these stats I think one can conclude that the defense blows way too many leads in the 4th, Tannehill is average to above average as long as that blown lead results in the game being tied, but is way below acceptable when he has to engineer a 4th quarter comeback.

    In other words, Tannehill isn't "clutch" but neither is the defense in the 4th quarter.

    As far as win probability given various leads, here's one graph that should help (win % vs. score differential as a function of minutes remaining in the game):
    http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2008/08/win-probability.html
     
  33. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah, I saw that site too, earlier, when I was looking. The next in the league were basically 50/50 when blowing a lead in the 4th.

    It's huge, also, when you think about how often we throw the ball, even when we don't need to be. It was a problem last season, and is a problem this season. The piss poor line play is magnified even more late in games, when we refuse to run the ball, or end up in third and forever because we constantly are getting penalties.
     
  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    That chart is nice, too. It looks like, at 10 minutes left, you have anywhere from about a 55%-90% chance of winning, if you are at least tied in the game. You actually have a better chance tied than up by 1. If you try to figure start of 4th, so 14 minutes, it looks like about 55%-85% win probability, with a tie or lead at that point. Seems that a 75% win percentage for us in games where we have a lead in the 4th is pretty good.
     
  35. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Well I have to do the research myself, so I'm not doing all the teams, but in our division, between last year and this year, there were 3 losses when winning or tied going into the 4th, that is all 3 of those teams combined, and the steJ are responsible for 2 of them, the Bills the other one.

    The Fins with same parameters have lost 5 games.
     
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  36. Shane Falco

    Shane Falco Banned

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    And Aaron Rodgers
     
  37. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    BTW, according to the win probability chart, when the Cowboys got that td right at the beginning of the fourth, or win probability dropped to around 10%.

    Finster, did you check out the chart that cbrad posted? Tied to up by 7 at the start of the 4th gives like 55%-85% win probability.

    I think you may be being too harsh, based mostly on your feelings towards Tannehill.
     
  38. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don't know about you but I've gotten a feeling that Tannehill not being clutch is kind of a Philbin thing. I'd love to see a coach come in that promoted Tannehill taking more shots and accepting some more risk. I feel in many ways that the Dolphins have this 6'5" strong-armed Texan at QB yet have coached him to play like...well...a *****.
     
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  39. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Right. They've cut off his nuts. Don't scramble, don't take shots downfield. Don't be loud and aggressive, cause that would have made Philbin dislike him. Just pick up your lunchpail, and do your job without complaining.
     
  40. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    If you get a minute go YouTube Chad Hennes Michigan highlights.....he was firing balls into tight windows and slinging it around the field.

    Fast forward to his grooming by Chad "play it safe" Pennington and Tony "lets get 3" Sparano......I have no doubts conservative cowards like Philbin has hurt his approach to the game.
     

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