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What do we need? (ROSTER ANALYSIS)

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Bpk, Dec 7, 2015.

  1. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    We've tried shoring up the roster around Tannehill, and it hasn't worked. The offense has been bad to maybe above average. Big investments in OLine and weapons haven't gotten us anywhere. If you don't have a franchise QB, you cannot contend consistently.

    Your thinking removes value from guys like Russell Wilson, Tyrod Taylor, Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, Teddy, even Kirk Cousins who some people like. None of those guys were surefire Winston or Mariota types.
     
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  2. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Just because we tried it doesn't mean we did it right though.

    You can't try to light a log on fire by rubbing two turnips together and when didn't work you replace] the turnips with two squash and when that fails claim "this log can't be lit on fire!!"

    We never fixed the oline. The closest we ever did come to fixing the oline, was before Albert went down last year and they played merely average, and Tannehill played int he Top 5-10 range (after he got comfortable with the brand new offense).

    Fix the oline, you'll fix the offense.
     
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  3. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Let's not confuse attempts for success.

    It's too easy to step back, put your hand over your eyes and say we invested in the OL and Tannehill still sucks. Reality is that in 2014 you only had like 6 games of Branden Albert at left tackle, followed by 10 games of a rookie who has never played left tackle before trying to play that spot, with Dallas Thomas opposite him, Pouncey playing right guard (terribly) and dreck at the left guard spot. Then this year Albert is either not playing or ineffective for the first quarter of the season, then Ja'Wuan James goes down and we haven't seen him in a while, and bottom line is Jason Fox has been more of a starter than either James or Albert. You still have dreck at left guard, right guard has been somewhere close to a disaster when accounting for the entire year from Jamil Douglas to Billy Turner, and Mike Pouncey misses a game and his replacement can't snap the damn football all game long. Kind of hard to execute when the ball rolls in at your ankles the whole game.

    Was the OL really fixed in some way that gives Tannehill no excuses? Bull sh-t. They tried some things on the OL and they failed miserably due to (circumstances) and Tannehill is getting blamed for that.
     
  4. SuhMe

    SuhMe Banned

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    Kirk Cousins lol, very much looking forward to watching Andy Dalton and probably the most complete roster in the NFL this year in the playoffs, you know, considering Dalton's stellar post season play and what not. Such a clutch "franchise" QB when it counts most. And I know, you're gonna say Tannehill hasn't even played in the playoffs, well Marino never won a SB, so I guess he must have sucked too. Tannehill's not going anywhere, thank God our front office isn't as stupid as the majority of our fan base and that's all that really matters at the end of the day.
     
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  5. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    Is there an example of this happening recently in the NFL, where a team stuck with a QB through 4+ years of mediocrity, and then all of a sudden the light came on and the team/offense/QB made the jump? I can't think of any aside from Eli Manning (sort of, though they still scored a lot and won 10+ games) and a few reclamation projects (Rich Gannon, Alex Smith to new teams) which are the exception. It's just not how the QB position traditionally works, imo.
     
  6. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Is there an example of a QB being saddled with ALL of these things and thriving?

    - Bad oline
    - Bad OCs
    - No audibles
    - Easily abandoned running game
     
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  7. CitizenSnips

    CitizenSnips hmm.

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    Thank you. We're far more of a mess than people want to admit. Due to injuries, we've had Albert and James both on the field at the same time for about 12 of the last 20+ games. It wouldn't be so bad if the rest of the line wasn't such a mess too, but as we know, it is.

    Matt Ryan's dealing with the same stuff in ATL.
     
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  8. SuhMe

    SuhMe Banned

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    Drew Brees had 5 bad years in San Diego, now he's Drew Brees, the probable hofer. It's not common in NFL history to start off slow and then pick it up, but it happens. Tannehill has also had horrible coaching in the NFL, and he was a collegiate WR for most of his college career anyway, so he should be a late bloomer. I get all the critics of Tannehill and I have a few myself, but to think he doesn't have the requisite skill set for the position, that I disagree with and find a lil stupid quite frankly because physically, he has all the tools, even more so than the great Russel Wilson. He just needs to get better, like Andrew Luck. And want to talk about what he does really well? He's as durable as they come at the most critical position on the field, I know many don't really care about that with him but in truth it's a vital asset.
     
  9. CitizenSnips

    CitizenSnips hmm.

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    Joe flacco.
     
  10. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    Flacco's 3rd season was better than anything Tannehill has done to this point. 25TDs to 10int at 7.4ypa, finished 6th in the League in Passer rating. His offenses in his first four years never finished in the bottom half of the League in ppg. He also won 49 games in his first 4 years including the playoffs.
     
  11. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    Brees finished 3rd in the NFL in Passer rating his third season as starter (104.8)
     
  12. SuhMe

    SuhMe Banned

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    And Ryan Tannehill is 1 of 4 QB's in NFL history to throw for 3K yards and however many touchdowns each year in his first 3 NFL seasons.
     
  13. Kud_II

    Kud_II Realist Division

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    No.

    If whoever we bring in evaluates Tannehill with his own staff thinks they can work with him then I have no problem letting them try. We may be stuck with Tannehill's contract for another year anyway.
     
  14. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    And he's never finished top-10 in Passer rating, or led a top 10 offense. Those are volume stats that're going to become more and more common in the NFL.
     
  15. CitizenSnips

    CitizenSnips hmm.

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    Yes, with Ed reed, ray lewis, ngata, suggs, etc on the other side of the ball. The fact that tannehills put up very comparable #s speaks volumes when his defenses werent even in the same league as those guys.

    Which brings me back to my point, and the point of this thread, we need players at other positions then qb.
     
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  16. CitizenSnips

    CitizenSnips hmm.

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    Weren't we 11th last year in offense? I guess your still correct, technically, but come on
     
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  17. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    The only guy I can think of that is really a late bloomer playing QB in the NFL is Joe Theismann, and his rise occurred only after the right head coach - Joe Gibbs - was brought in. It took him 7 years as an NFL QB before he had a 90's passing rating (granted that was early 80's so that's low 100's today) and took his team to the playoffs (won the SB against the Dolphins).

    Oh, and all that occurred after he was a QB in the CFL, then a punt returner in the NFL haha.
     
  18. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Amen man. That's exactly what they are aka VOLUME STATS. It's why guys like Brian Hartline can amass two straight 1,000 yard seasons.

    Guys be hanging their hat on such insignificant singular numbers.
     
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  19. SuhMe

    SuhMe Banned

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    Cam was never in the top 10 in passer rating in his first 4 NFL seasons, I guess he must suck too. Other than probably being the MVP this year, the fact he didn't finish in the top 10 in certain statistical categories in his first 4 NFL seasons, clearly meant he isn't a true franchise QB. Great argument.
     
  20. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Drew Brees and Eli Manning are the most obvious examples. Alex Smith and Rich Gannon, as you say. Andy Dalton the most recent example.

    I have made this point before but it seems like quarterbacks are really only getting better with advanced age.

    1. Rich Gannon didn't get good until his 30's.

    2. People in St. Louis and New York thought Kurt Warner had somehow forgot how to play football or that he was washed up or worse, that he was "made" by the Mike Martz offense with all those weapons like Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Marshall Faulk and Az Hakim. Then he goes to Arizona and is amazeballs.

    3. Speaking of Arizona, Carson Palmer was supposed to be the biggest trade bust in contemporary NFL history in Oakland. His success in Cincinnati was labeled fleeting, the product of having two great receivers in Chad Johnson and Houshmandzadeh in their prime, etc. That or he's physically done, etc. He goes to Arizona, again amazeballs.

    4. As I said with Andy Dalton, last year was his fourth year, not a very good one for him, and lots of people were absolutely convinced the Bengals go nowhere with him at quarterback. This year he's one of the best passers in the NFL.

    5. As I mentioned, Eli Manning didn't really get good until his 6th year or something like that.

    6. Drew Brees didn't really get good until his 4th year and then he had a regression year in his 5th year. Then he solidified his status as elite.

    7. Chad Pennington had a burst of good play in New York followed by a bunch of mediocre play, was let go by them and his success explained away as somewhere between a fluke or a result of him being in his physical prime. He was brilliant in Miami, the best he had ever been.

    8. Go back a little bit and clearly Jake Plummer didn't start to get good until like 7 years into his career.

    9. Even right now, for four years Tyrod Taylor was just a backup QB at best. If he was any better than that we'd have seen it, at least in preseason. He's one of the most effective quarterbacks in the game this year.

    10. Speaking of this year is it me or does Ryan Fitzpatrick keep A) turning up as a starter every year, and B) keep getting better every damn year? He's the best he's ever been right now at 33 years old.

    11. Heck, did you know that Tom Brady never crested a 90+ passer rating until his 5th year in the league? And it wasn't until his 8th year when it became generally accepted that he is an elite passer.

    12. As I mentioned before, Alex Smith another good example.

    I already know what you're tempted to do. You're going to start picking apart this guy who doesn't count because of blah blah blah, that guy doesn't count because of yadda yadda yadda, trying to whittle it all down to nothing until you've got Texas quarterbacks with four-letter first names who went on to be elite passers after having 90+ passer ratings in their third year and then only an 80+ passer rating in their fourth. I think that would be missing the point fantastically.

    The point is:

    1. We have already seen Ryan Tannehill play well. We saw it during long stretches of 2014 and we've even seen it at times in 2015 despite the considerable turmoil on the team (seems a new coach gets fired every week) and the poor offensive line, lack of commitment to the ground game and really poor coaching.

    2. There is a LOT of precedent for players to just continue getting better and better as they age at that position. Every time you'd swear a player peaked, or that you've seen the maximum he's capable of, you get quarterbacks making those people look foolish.

    3. There is no physical ailment that suggests he's done, nor a mental illness such as drug addiction as we have seen in some other players. Nor did he achieve his past success with elite casts that can never hope to be re-assembled, nor did he achieve those successes with elite coaches that can never hope to be re-assembled.
     
  21. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Every time? Based on what? A handful of cherry picked examples you've given?
     
  22. SuhMe

    SuhMe Banned

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    Oh you mean like being in the top 10 in passer rating, or leading a top 10 offense. How ironic lol, Cam must really suck too considering he wasn't able to achieve these "significant" statistical accomplishments in his first 4 years either. Too funny, I love how people only pay attention to the stats that fit their agenda and dismiss those that don't.
     
  23. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Tannehill has never flashed the ability to impact games and lift an offense lacking talent the way Newton has.

    As the team goes, Tannehill goes.
     
  24. SuhMe

    SuhMe Banned

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    Now we change the argument to look beyond the stats, how convenient.
     
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  25. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    What the hell are you even babbling about?
     
  26. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    They need players that outperform their compensation. Very few of those guys on the roster right now, and the two biggest ones (Vernon and Miller) are about to no longer add that value.
     
  27. gunn34

    gunn34 I miss Don & Dan

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    He does have better physical tools than Russel Wilson, but Wilson has a true QB mentality. In my opinion, Thill is mearly a good athlete playing QB.
     
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  28. SuhMe

    SuhMe Banned

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    You dismiss the fact Tannehill has done something only 3 other Qb's in NFL history have done but thank a post that illustrates how Tannehill hasn't been top 10 in certain statistical categories (that Cam Newton didn't even accomplish in his first 4 years). That's a real fair and unbiased way to analyze statistics lol.
     
  29. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    What I liked about the post and specifically SAID SO, was the blurb about volume stats.

    Trying reading for once bro, instead of rushing to jump into the fray about your precious. I'm not abandoning any and all stats. Stats mean jack squat without consistency. They are essentially anomalous without it.
     
  30. SuhMe

    SuhMe Banned

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    I agree, Wilson is the better QB compared to Tannehill because imo he has a higher football IQ. I was a big believer in Wilson coming out of Wisconsin, I used to tell me roommate before Wilson was drafted to watch out for him because of the lack of INT's he threw in college which impressed me a lot. I just don't get why so many people b**** about Tannehill considering the NFL QB market as teams like the Redskins and Eagles are soon to find out.
     
  31. SuhMe

    SuhMe Banned

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    I assumed you also felt the fact he didn't finish top 10 in those categories he mentioned helped to bolster the argument Tannehill isn't a franchise QB. If you really don't good for you, but for the guy who originally posted it, it is ironic he dismisses Tannehill's "bulk" stats but uses stats even Cam didn't accomplish in his first 4 years to discredit Tannehill. That's ironic as f***.
     
  32. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    I've never been one to rest my entire case on stats, especially not the standard stuff that everyone barks about. What I focus on when it comes to QB's tends to be situational. The great ones tend to show up there in the stat sheets.

    A QB's impact can also be measured by the play of his supporting cast (i.e. performing above their expectations). The greats tend to elevate. The status quo tend to go as their team goes. Having said that there is a limit and QB's aren't often going to turn ramen into prime rib.

    Cam Newton is an interesting case. I wasn't originally a believer, but it's become pretty clear to the naked eye that he is the offense and Mike Shula has done what no other OC has been able to do over there in creating an offense that suits his skillsets.
     
  33. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Comparing other quarterbacks to Tannehill is like comparing the Refrigerator Perry to other running backs. It's just a ridiculous conversation because Tannehill doesn't do a fraction of what other starting QB's do.

    But to get to your "points"-

    1) Tannehill had 5-6 very good games in 2014. He had 3-4 in 2013. He had 2-3 in his rookie year, and this season he's had MAYBE 1. And that's a big maybe. That's 14 good games out of sixty...

    Or let's look at it from another perspective. In 2015, he had two games with 3+ TD's...and in both games they came off short throws where receivers made big plays. But let's give him credit for that anyway, even though it wasn't really him. That's twice in 2015. Four times in 2014. Three times in 2013. Three times in 2012. That's 12 of 60 games, and it's worth noting that we haven't run AT ALL in the red zone except under Campbell. So it's not like he had beautiful passing drives that got capped off by runs.

    2) Precedent means NOTHING. Or are you saying that Chad Henne should still be our starter? Or Matt Moore? Or Cleo Lemon? Just because some QB's get better with age doesn't mean Tannehill will.

    3) I don't buy the, "He's not a crack-head and he's healthy, so he should start..." argument. That goes right back to point #2...healthy does not mean productive by any stretch of the imagination. Tannehill simply doesn't have the mental focus to play at a high level for 60 minutes.
     
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  34. Limbo

    Limbo Mad Stillz

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    When you use poor examples, yes, I'll point them out.

    Tom Brady was in the 80s largely because the League's average rating was considerably lower. From 01-04 he was in the top 10 every season.

    Drew Brees, again, had a fantastic season in his third year as starter, 3rd in NFL in passer rating.

    Andy Dalton, same thing, 7th in NFL in 2013. Top 10 offense, always solid in the top half of the League.

    Carson Palmer was awesome in Cincy before the knee. Warner was obviously amazing in StL. Pennington also a top rated guy within his first couple seasons.

    These guys all flashed high level ability early on in the League. THOSE are the guys you project success for. All the franchise QB types put up at least one really good season within their first few years. They showed they're capable.

    Eli Manning led two excellent offenses in his first 4 years (6th scoring offense one year), amde the playoffs, won a Super Bowl, ya know. Many people hated the Alex Smith comparison as of six months ago. Tyrod Taylor just got his chance to start after being stuck behind a legit franchise guy, not sure that's a great example.

    Tannehill has never been a strong performer relative to the competition. In college he finished 44th and 56th in passer rating in the country. His senior season Aggies were preseason top-10...only to go 7-6, with the coaching staff fired at season's end. (Manziel followed that year with a Heisman and BCS bowl.)

    Why are we projecting really good things from a player who has never been really good? It's cool that's he's been good "for stretches," but you could say that for any QB. 16 games is what matters.

    I'm saying that all these guys you listed flashed legit hi-end play within their first few years. Tannehill has not. The point is that you're expecting him to become an exception, and I just don't think that's good practice.
     
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  35. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    1. Was Drew Brees' fourth year in the NFL. Fact.
    2. Tom Brady didn't throw incomplete passes because Daunte Culpepper threw incomplete passes.
    3. Andy Dalton was mediocre in 2013 and 2014.
    4. Now we're going with "Eli Manning led excellent offenses"? Come on. Just admit you're morphing your standards case by case to whatever fits the argument.
    5. If you've never seen Ryan Tannehill play really well then you're not watching the same games I did. Tannehill has indeed "flashed legit hi-end play".
     
  36. SuhMe

    SuhMe Banned

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    Tannehill doesn't have the "mental focus" to play on a high level for 60 minutes, but somehow was basically a valedictorian in H.S, and was an honor role student in college with a focus in orthopedic surgery. I get football IQ is very different from book smarts, but I find it highly unlikely he can't "stay focused" for a 60 minute football game when this guy was basically a srt8 A student for most of his life.
     
  37. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Not even the same thing.
     
  38. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Tanny doesn't throw a lot of INTs so that alone qualifies him for, at a minimum, a game manager. You keep him, if something better comes along via your evaluation of draft talent you bring someone in to compete. But you keep him and you try and build around him and hope he develops with good coaching.

    Worst is, you have a pretty damn good game manager.
     
  39. Itsdahumidity

    Itsdahumidity X gonna take it from ya

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    Limbo posted "Drew Brees, again, had a fantastic season in his third year as starter"

    In 2001 Brees played all of 1 gm and he didn't start.
     
  40. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    You keep a game manager if he's making $20M/yr.? At what point do you just decide to find a game manager in FA for significantly less?
     

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