Most passing yards in the first four years of a players career

The thing I agree with is taking off and running. But I think there's an issue there with his OCs.

You always say this and I always bring up that in the fourth quarter when down, the defense can tee off on the oline because we abandon the running game. THAT is why it gets worse in the 4th.

I think he improved dramatically every other year, but I think the whole team has tanked this season. Its why we've gone through HCs and coordinators. We've fallen apart as a team, and it has a lot to do with the coaching staff.

But again, show me a QB that has thrived with a bad oline, bad OCs, underutilized running game and not allowed to audible, then we can start what Thill should or shouldn't be doing in this situation.

 

Yeah, but the defense can do that to every team under the same conditions. So why the massive drop-off for us but not them? Whatever the defense can do to the OL on average you can subtract.. what's left is the estimated culpability of the QB, and it's pretty clearly negative for Tannehill. Now.. there's no way to know exactly how much Tannehill is responsible for but the best estimate is that he is not clutch and performs worse than the average franchise QB when "trailing" in the 4th.

We've certainly fallen apart as a team, yes. But you can still evaluate the QB in individual situations to see if he's progressed. And you see no serious improvement in pocket presence (hard to blame all that, especially shifting to avoid pressure.. on an OC.. what OC would say do NOT shift to avoid pressure?) and some aspects of decision-making. So it can't all be blamed on others.

As you guys like to say it's a team game.. and Tannehill is one of the problems right now on the team.

 

I'm not following this.

Our line is worse than any other at pass pro. I know, you have stats that say otherwise, but those stats do not account for the amount of pressure in a given play. They just count pressure. So one guy getting through counts the same as three guys getting through at the same time, when those obviously require different means for escaping.

So, no, its not the same. We won't run the ball. Other teams will, also, other teams have to keep guys in the backfield in case the pass rush doesn't break through in time. Against us, that's not necessary. Not too mention, most of our plays are a bunch formation that are designed to go short of the sticks.

Again, I disagree. There was a game, for example, that Tannehill was dancing in the pocket and avoiding pressure left and right, until the fourth quarter. Difference? oline wasn't allowing jailbreak style pressure until the part way into the 3rd and the entire 4th.

 

I'm just going by the data available. You can certainly point out there are different types of pressure, but where's your data showing the distribution of different types of pressure for different OL's across the league? You have none. All you can really say is that it's possible that everything is so different in our case that all or almost all the blame for the 4th quarter "trailing" stats should be on the OL.

Yeah, anything's possible.. but the data as it stands doesn't allow you to claim that's likely. This is what I would do if I did a full analysis: assume you don't know the exact influences of the QB, OL, RB, etc.. on some stat, like the 4th quarter "trailing" stat. Doesn't matter.. look at how many standard deviations away from the mean the stats for the Dolphins are vs. all others in the league, or all others with so-called "franchise" QB's (my original argument). Whatever the difference from the mean, the percent contribution of the QB (which is unknown but clearly positive and probably for an offense ~30% if you go by contribution to scoring) is exactly the estimated culpability of the QB for the relative performance.

That's probably the simplest justifiable way to do a statistical analysis on it. There is seriously no way I can think of to use the data available and come out with the argument that in the Dolphins case, things are just so different from anything we've seen before that specifically for the 4th quarter "trailing" stats, the OL is primarily at fault. However.. for 4th quarter "leading" stats the OL isn't the reason Tannehill is well above average (because the OL is crappy right?), no.. it's Tannehill.

No.. statistically speaking Tannehill is a major reason why his clutch stats are bad.

Yeah, in individual games sure. But I find it hard to argue Tannehill's pocket presence is even average. You can disagree and that's fine, but what I see makes me sometimes want to tear my hair out (thankfully I haven't.. I guess it'll happen eventually anyway haha!)

 

And we come back to the same problem you and I will always have. If the stats don't tell enough of the story I think we can't make a determination and you think that its the only determination to make.

 

Except you're making a determination. You're saying the OL (and running game) is likely the primary culprit for the massive drop-off in 4th quarter "trailing" stats. I don't think most people who just base their arguments on film would agree with you that the OL can be bad for most of the game, but suddenly fall off the cliff like no other OL does in exactly those "trailing" situations.

If your argument was instead that "we don't know" and you just left it at that, I wouldn't disagree. I'd still point out a crude statistical analysis would say the QB is likely responsible for a good portion of that drop-off, but I'll easily admit the analysis is crude at best.

 

Actually I think most people who watch film would absolutely agree with me. I think the people who pour over their spreadsheets would agree with you.

And I'm making my determination on what I see not on the stats. So I'm not contradicting myself.

As I said, the stats don't differentiate, so the stats in my mind, aren't reliable and can't lead you to a conclusion. My conclusion is left to what I see on film, and that's jailbreaks. I don't see that as much with other lines.

 

Would actually be interesting to find out. And for those reading this exchange, I'm ONLY talking about the 4th quarter "trailing" stats:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TannRy00/splits/

 

I would say a more athletic version of Cutler but with a lesser arm.

 

What would Occam's razor say regarding Tannehill. That he has has 3 terrible OCs and everybody else around him is bad, or that he himself is bad. Think about it.

 

Yeah, because the only thing people have argued is that the OCs were bad. Maybe you'll take a shot at answering the question, that everyone else avoids :

What QB has been successful while dealing with terrible line play AND bad OC AND average/below average receivers AND poor offensive scheme AND next to no run game AND bad defense AND not being allowed to audible?

 

Occam's Razor says: Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected"

I don't really see how it fits in this argument. Analyzing any QB who is in Ryan's situation would fail the Occams Razor rule.

 

At the end of the day:

Ryan Tannehill is our starting QB. That is not debatable.

Will he be our starting QB in 2016? It is almost a certainty.

Outside of that...none of can say what happens with him. If we have a ****ty Oline again...don't see much improvement over this year.

If we have a better Oline...I think its very logical to expect him to have a much better season..but more then that..the entire team would have a much better season.

So really all this discussion is for naught...until we see what the line looks like.

 

6 games against really poor teams per yr

 

His last five games are drastically different from the previous ten. He had a couple very good games in the first 10, like a perfect rating against the Saints, but he didn't string together five good to great games in a row. Did anything change for the Redskins five games ago? Honest question, I don't really follow the Skins.

 

Giants, Cowboys, Redskins, and Eagles have all made the playoffs in recent years. They just played Buffalo and the Eagles.

We played Buffalo and the Eagles. How were the results.

 

We beat the Eagles. So there's that.


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They're devoid of talent and were predicted to be a basement-dwelling team that'd be picking in the top 3. They went out and won the division. Tannehill's teams have never overachieved to that degree.

 

He beat them.

 

Indeed. He was definitely the starting qb when Jarvis Landrry broke the tie with a punt return.

Without the juggernaut offense led by Tanny scoring 10 pts, Landry would not be in position to win that game for the phins

 

Actually maybe a few years ago when it looked like the Dolphins D was going to be ferocious for a while, I could see the shortest route for a contender being standing pat with an average QB and trying to build an elite D around him ( Ravens+Dilfer style ). I do believe Tannehill can/has competed at a Dilfer-type level. But obviously that window has passed

 

No. Not "anybody can do that"; but I'd say that they are GARBAGE YARDS!!!!! we are always losing so we throw the ball. That doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out. Garbage yards. When the yards MATTER, he fails.

 

We throw all game long. Garbage yards are late in games, when the game is out of reach, and teams are sitting back in prevent.

So, no, they aren't "garbage yards."

 

While this is great, the NFL is a pass happy league now and Luck pretty much missed this hole year so not a fair comparison IMO.

 

Where does he stand on TD's? TD's way more important than yards. 4000 yards now is what 3000 yards used to be, no comparison.

 

Thank you rule changes. We all know Marino is #1.

 

Marino really is #1, but for a more obvious reason. He played in only 11 and started only 9 games in 1983, while Peyton Manning started all 16 games each of those first 4 years. Given that Marino had a 200 yd/game average in 1983, that's an extra 1000 yards you have to tack on minimum for a fair comparison.

 

**** all you have to do is put the stats in the right category. Marino is the best and always will be. Does PM have more yards - sure but look at the other stats namely touchdowns - Marino smokes Payton

PM has over 200 more attempts and 31 less TD's - not to mention he's only beating Marino by about 30 yards per the chart (not sure how old it is)

 

Just a thought relating to the line fall off.

It may be because we are down in points and oposing defenses just pin there ears back and come after Thill because they know we have to pass

 

Yeah, but how is that so different from what other teams face in similar situations? Most teams have to pass when they are trailing with either <2 min left or <4 min left in the 4th quarter.

My point is that the drop-off in our case (4th quarter "trailing" vs. say "tied") is just abnormal. Hard to pin all or most of that on the OL just from a stats point of view. And personally, I haven't seen anything so different with the OL in those situations that says the OL should get the lions share of the blame (because the OL is bad all the time).

 

btw.. regarding the inflation issue, the average yards passing per game (as well as passing TD per game) for the league was about the same when Marino came into the league as when Peyton did:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/team_stats.htm

It's the guys that came into the league around 2007+ that for whatever reason (rule changes or just better QB'ing) have increased the average in both stats. For 2015, you're looking at maybe 40 passing yards more per game, and 0.3 extra passing TD's per game compared to the early 80's or late 90's. That translates to 640 more yards and 5 more TD's per season.

 

well at least we agree on one thing - the offensive line is terrible. I also believe it has single handedly had a lot to do with Thill's progress - time to throw, sacks, becoming a little skittish at times, etc It is also a main reason why we have resorted to the dink and dunk offense because to hold a block consistently for our line is a monumental task.

The ball has to come out quick which is also why THill's yards per attempt are down

Fix the line and Thill can get it done

 

I see your point and all I can think of is we are behind so often (every game just about) that we are in that situation more often then other teams which highlights the drop off

 

Yeah I definitely agree with those that say the bad OL has hurt Tannehill's progress and has been partly responsible for the compensatory play calling.

Whether fixing the OL will make Tannehill look like a real franchise QB though.. I don't know. Have to see to believe on that one.

 

The number of times you are in that situation shouldn't have an effect on the stats, unless there are too few attempts for the stats to be reliable or you're arguing that more attempts means you get worse at it (not sure I can go along with that one.. if anything you should get better the more you do the same thing).

Note that for many QB's, including QB's that are great "clutch" QB's, they have more attempts, completions, etc.. during those "trailing" moments. See Tom Brady:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00/splits/

He actually does BEST when trailing (on average, at least by passer rating)!! And he has far more attempts during "trailing" than "tied" or "leading" with <2 or <4 minutes left in the 4th. This makes sense because most teams run more when tied or leading in those situations. Tannehill's number of attempts, completions, etc.. in those situations is more than high enough so that the stats are (sadly) reliable:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TannRy00/splits/

So yeah.. I think this is something that suggests the QB shares a good part of the blame.

 

they did get worse because now teams stack the box because we can't make a throw more then 10 yards. I think the design is to make up for the inadequacies of the line. Design being the old bill Walsh 3 to 4 get 2 additional with their legs and athleticism. Unfortunately it is so prominent now that it simply doesn't work anymore unless you have the threat of the long pass, which we don't. So teams are easier to slow down the dink and dunk simply by more men, who are superior athletes in a given area (crowding the box)

hell look at last weeks game winning 4th down on the 7 i think. Oh wait, my bad we lost. I forgot the line forgot to block

 

Got a picture of Unlucky after he made this post: