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Tannehill with another first....

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Shane Falco, Jan 3, 2016.

  1. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yes, the oline is crappy all game, but the specific situation certainly further exposes the weaknesses of the oline. The situations early in games affect the oline differently, with the defensive strategies they face, than the situations late in games, or when trailing vs winning.

    It's not as simple as you're trying to make it.
     
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  2. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Very well-stated.
     
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  3. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    The specific situation exposes weaknesses of every OL. You have to find something that affects ONLY our OL and ONLY in "trailing" situations. Find something that doesn't happen to other teams' OL in "trailing" situations that also doesn't happen to our OL in "tied" situations.
     
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  4. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    A whopping 3.2 posts per day since my join date on March 2015. Clearly simple math isn't a requirement at yours.

    BTW, some of us work hard enough to afford ourselves vacation time. Cheers!
     
  5. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Really solid argument, it will be interesting to see how this is twisted.
     
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  6. dgfred

    dgfred Free Agent pickup

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    Still, debating something that could be fixed with the original problem at least decent... aka OL.
     
  7. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    No, I just read at an adult speed. Maybe you don't so you can't understand how its done.
     
  8. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Nonsense. The problem with Tannehill's deep pass was his deep pass. His deep passes improved because he changed it. All summer all we heard was how his deep pass was different, how there was more arc in it. Why would he need to do that, if all he had to do was subtract Wallace?

    https://www.google.com/search?q=arc...7.5311j0j9&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=119&ie=UTF-8

    "more arc" "more consistent" "more catchable" "timing is better"

    So Wallace was holding Tannehill back from all of that? No. Tannehill had a terrible deep ball and worked on it all summer. He lacked touch on the deep pass and improved that this year. The problem with Tanny is, he's not Carson Palmer, Drew Brees or Big Ben with the deep pass accuracy. But it is what it is. That's why he can't use specialists like Wallace and Stills. Nobody wants to talk about Stills? 63 targets, 27 passes for a 42% catch rate and only 3 drops? Meaning all of those other targets didn't even hit his hands? Last year he caught 75% of his targets and they were not shallow targets.

    Some posters on here were trying to argue there would be no dropoff from Brees to Tanny because Tanny was ascending and Brees' throws were off-target anyway. Wrong. We're finding out the best targets for Tanny are Landrys, Devante Parkers, and not Wallaces, Stills. Assuming he has the time (oline) Could he hit a streaking TY Hilton across the field 35 yards away?
     
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  9. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Its not spin, cbrad just refuses to admit that when the defense can tee off on the oline, like in the 4th quarter when we stop running and are behind because our defense gives up 30 points, that would make things worse. He thinks pressure is a constant across the league as is handling of the pressure. He watches the game in Microsoft Excel.
     
  10. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Its fun when you prove my point when you think you're arguing it.
     
  11. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    ..... and you bicker at ludicrous speed!

    [​IMG]
     
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  12. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    That's true, I do.

    Look, we agreed.
     
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  13. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    When you show data backing up any assertion that what happens to our OL in "trailing" situations is qualitatively different than what happens to other OL's in those same situations AND what happens to our OL in "tied" situations, we'll see how the stat-based conclusions change (if at all).

    I need the data though. Until then all you can say is that there may be something different.

    Anyway, I watch the games too, and I don't see an "eyeball" argument here either for something being so qualitatively different.
     
  14. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Which is why we commonly try to address the "adjusters fallacy" in here.
     
  15. heylookatme

    heylookatme Well-Known Member

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    You seem pretty emotionally invested in bashing people in this thread for a guy who is on vacation.



    If you don't think that an offense's ability to pass the football is damaged when the offense is forced into situations where it must predictably pass the football on every down, then I don't know what to tell you. This is especially true in 2 minute situations when the offense must predictably try to pass the football and aim to get out of bounds.
     
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  16. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Your point was, Tannehill decided his deep pass sucks and needed to improve it, and our deep ball specialist Kenny Stills had a worse year under him than under Brees?

    Then we are in agreement.
     
  17. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    All I can tell you is to read what you quoted again. I agree with everything you said yet everything you said is irrelevant to my argument.
     
  18. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Well, the data you use to say Thill is poor in those situations, is the data that shows there's a difference in how the oline handles the pass rush in those situations.

    Again you stop at the stats and don't factor in common football knowledge (like heylookatme has illustrated) and you're not factoring in logic. For example, the end result of your argument is that olines and defenses are a constant. That's simply not possible.
     
  19. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    My point was that in spite of all the evidence to the contrary you guys refuse to change your stance.
     
  20. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    What heylookatme said I agree with and already factored that in. It simply doesn't affect my argument because I'm looking at similar conditions across the league.

    And clearly OL and defenses aren't constant, no disagreement there. That's why there's variance in the stats. That's also factored in.
     
  21. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    No you aren't looking at similar conditions. You're looking at similar periods of the game and neglecting the quality of the lines, playcalling tendencies, etc. in general which is why your argument ends in all olines and defenses being the same.
     
  22. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    My argument doesn't end with OL and defense being the same so don't claim that (how can there be variance in the stats and that be true?).

    In any case, all those other factors exist but no one is providing data on them so that we can look at differences across teams. All you have is an opinion. At least I have a statistical argument that while not complete is far more objective than an opinion.
     
  23. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Sure it does.

    You're saying if I'm to claim that our line is worse in those situations then any other, I have to use data to counter the incomplete data you provided that shows our line is no different. So please explain how your incomplete data that shows there's no difference in our line in those situations from any other oline, doesn't, you know, show there's no difference in olines.
     
  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I'm saying there's no evidence that a "crappy" OL becomes far more "crappy" relative to its average level of "crappiness" (haha) than an OL that's not crappy. So because of absence of such evidence I'm assuming our OL's performance across different conditions is not statistically speaking different from that of other OL's.

    I'm just saying that's not the same thing as saying our OL/defense is the same as others. Essentially I'm saying you can randomly pick a "drop-off performance" for OL's from a distribution of such performances across the league and assign it to our OL.

    Point is.. all that is because of absence of evidence to assume otherwise.
     
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  25. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Right, so as I said, your stance leads to all olines are the same and handle all situations the same....unless I can prove to you that they don't with numbers no one tracks.
     
  26. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Dude.. you're a stickler for words, so don't say "same" because it's not true! Say "statistically speaking similar". It's a big difference. Otherwise my analysis has problems.
     
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  27. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I'm not a statistician. This is not a forum dedicated to statistics. I'm not here to to speak proper "Stat-english". :tongue2:
     
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  28. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You are deducing that our oline must be even worse (because they are already bad) in the 4th quarter from behind because teams are teeing off on the QB. The evidence for this? Tanny's 4th quarter rating.

    A reasonable argument. But needs to be supported. WE don't expect Aaron Rodgers to become Geno Smith in the 4th quarter due to teams teeing off on his oline, but a similar dip would support your theory.

    The Chargers. Oline has also been wrecked by injuries. They're trailing more often than they are winning. In fact, he's made 157 attempts when leading, 101 when tied, and 403 attemps when trailing. So teams should have been teeing off on Rivers all year especially with a decimated oline.

    94.5. 91.8. 93.9. 96.3.

    His rating from Q1 to Q4. Rivers is the one good QB I can think of, with a bad oline, who played from behind all year. And he's not mobile.
     
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  29. dgfred

    dgfred Free Agent pickup

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    Well, you said it there exactly. Have you watched Rodgers (with weak OL) and Rivers (with injured OL) have done lately?

    Rodgers IS dipped, and Rivers (Chargers) really struggled because of the OL... except against a certain defense.

    Rodgers HAS looked G.Smith like a few times late this year. They lost to the Vikings AT HOME to win the division. That has got to sting.
     
  30. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Rodgers also lost Jordy Nelson and still threw 31 TDs, 8 INTs. Cobb was exposed and there aren't really any other good WRs on that team (Adams is a huge disappointment) and they had to sign James Jones who was cut by two teams in one offseason. And then he still looked pretty good.

    That said that wasn't the point of those stats. Rivers did not have a huge dip in rating in the 4th quarter even though they played 60% of the year from behind and their oline was wrecked.
     
  31. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Again....you guys keep thinking oline X responds to increased pressure the same way oline y does. Thats the problem.
     
  32. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    Maybe I'm misunderstanding... Rivers had games a month ago where he finished with a passer rating as low as 57.1. His last 5 games were 57.1, 64.4, 102.9 (against us), 85.2, and 86.4... He threw 6 TDs (3 against our historically bad pass defense) and 5 INTs over that span. His best games on the season were against the Browns and Jax...
     
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  33. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    If I'm not mistaken the conversation around Rivers was when trailing or in the 4th quarter.

    For the entire season he had a 65.92% completion, 18TD/8INT, 7.4 YPA and a 94.5 rating when trailing.
    In the 4th quarter it was 63.59%, 10TD/4INT, 7.8 YPA, and 96.3 rating.

    Those are ridiculously good numbers given the roster problems they had. To be fair though, I'm not certain how much of that might have been attributed to garbage time. Would need to review further.
     
  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    So, the assumption here is that Stills was wide open on all those, and Tannehill simply missed him, as opposed to there being a defender involved in breaking up the pass?

    I can't believe we're still arguing that Wallace wasn't to blame also in the deep ball issue.
     
  35. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I agree Tannehill has improved his deep ball this year, but until we see how he plays with a Wallace-type receiver again I'm going to assume Tannehill would still be confused by Wallace's speed and timing. The improvement in timing, the arc of the ball, etc.. would maybe make things a bit better, but Wallace was so difficult for Tannehill to figure out timing-wise that I need to see proof he can deal with that extreme (for him). Until then I'm going with the default position of assigning blame to both of them for the deep ball issues they had with each other.

    Either way, what's important going forward is that we finally have the types of WR's that work well with Tannehill: Parker, Landry and if we keep him Matthews.
     
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  36. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yes, I think it gets confused, no one was saying that Tannehill couldn't be better on the deep ball, just that he wasn't as bad as it appeared, due to the shortcomings that Wallace presented in a timing offense.
     
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  37. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Timing offense? You think it boils down to "timing" on a deep ball? It's read, recognition, and most importantly anticipation. Over his career, Tannehill has relied too heavily on rifling a ball in there when he sees someone getting open. While Wallace was here, this lead to lower arching "late" passes, with little finesse. Wallace is the kind of guy you take shots downfield in anticipation of his separation, because you know so few can actually run with him step-for-step.

    Tannehill has improved this year in getting some arc underneath that ball, as well as anticipating. Wallace is stuck in Minny, where Teddy B. has made Tannehill look like the NFL's most prolific deep ball passer. I feel bad for Norv Turner, because he's chomping at the bit to use him vertically ..... but can't.
     
  38. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Tannehill was hit 106 times this year on 586 pass attempts.

    Please explain to me then how Russell Wilson is successful after enduring 114 QB hits on only 483 attempts? What about Carson Palmer? He got hit 103 times on 537 attempts. Both guys were Top 4 in rating and QBR.
     
  39. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Not that I want to get involved in this round and round and round BS...

    But... Jim Miller and Pat Kirwan were talking about Bridgewater and his deep ball today, and how much of a failure he's been with it, and Wallace. Now, Miller, a former QB pointed out the positioning of Teddy's elbow during his throw, that is likely causing his struggles. They talked on an on about what he can do to change it etc. etc. Then they moved on to Wallace... pointing out what most of us already know. He's just not a good WR. They pointed out the fact that Pittsburgh didn't want him back, he went on to Miami, struggled. Now he's struggling in Minnesotta to make deep ball connections. They then went into breaking down Wallace... How alot of QB's can't adjust to his speed, because Wallace doesn't use it properly. He just runs... They talked about his poor routes. How often times on his deep routes he just runs, lets the DB's rub him off his spots, runs too close to the sidelines and doesn't even come close to giving QB's a chance to hit him deep, because placement of the ball downfield like that is extremely difficult and when the WR is too close to the sideline, he's eliminated a good chunk of space. They also pointed out his inability to adjust to the ball, and discussed briefly whether that's because he runs undisciplined routes and runs "too fast", and the QB's cant adjust.

    It's clearly an issue on both... anyone not willing to see it both ways, well then... I'm really not sure what to tell you.
     
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  40. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Right. I agree it was on both. There are those who wanted to lay all the blame on Tannehill, and that was, and is still, simply not accurate.
     
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