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NFL coaching rumors: Miami Dolphins will try to hire Adam Gase before Eagles can, per

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Sceeto, Jan 7, 2016.

  1. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I have to admit I don't know a lot about Gase. My initial thought is I would prefer someone who has had at least a little experience as a NFL head coach. My top 3 are Jackson, Shanahan and Smith in no particular order.

    No matter how you slice it, it's a crap shoot. Most teams and coaches will fail. Very few get to the top.
     
  2. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Your criteria is wrong.

    I'm not saying Gase will be great, i don't know, but looking at overall ranking of the unit or team a guy came from is....well.....wrong.

    What if the candidate coached a defense that was ranked 22nd, but without him it would have been 32nd due to talent? You're a pretty staunch Tannehater, the fact that our offense wasn't so good, do you blame that on Thill or the OC, for example?

    You have to stop looking at overall ratings and calling it done. You have to look at where the team/unit played relative to their talent level to get a true evaluation.

    Again, I don't know if Gase did an amazing job with that offense, but he did coach the uncoachable Cutler to levels he's not achieved before.
     
    dgfred likes this.
  3. dgfred

    dgfred Free Agent pickup

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    'not achieved before' ... at least for the Bears. I think maybe fatherhood helped Cutler's attitude a bit. I know it did for me in the day.
     
    Finster likes this.
  4. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    3rd times the charm? Cutlers got 3 kids, first born in 2012.
     
    dgfred likes this.
  5. dgfred

    dgfred Free Agent pickup

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    I think it was the 2nd one ;)
     
  6. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    I have no idea why this guy is such a hot commodity.
    If you go back to the time he was in Denver, it was the defense which carried the Broncos to the playoffs with Tebow at the QB position. Tebow played one good game in the playoffs and that was it. The rest of the time he went through all the other games playing terrible for the majority of each game, while relying on the defense to keep them in the game. Until he finally would wake up in the fourth quarter.

    Being Peyton Manning's QB coach was a joke. It was Manning who probably taught Gase about the QB position while the two of them were together.

    The Bears were really no better than the Dolphins this past season. While Cutler played better than in previous years, the overall offense was nothing special.

    I see Gase as just a younger version of Philbin. No previous head coaching experience and no evidence he could manage an entire roster.

    If they are going to opt for a young coaching prospect, they might as well stick with Campbell. At least he knows the team and he has 12 games of actual head coaching experience.

    I still feel Hue Jackson, Marrone, or Shanahan are the best candidates for the position, in that order. Hopefully the Eagles will sign Gase before the Dolphins once again make a HUGE mistake hiring another coach with zero head coaching experience.
     
    Agua likes this.
  7. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    That is entirely false.
     
  8. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    No its not.
     
  9. evo8904

    evo8904 Active Member

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    I agree and Shanahan is a better canidate than Gase too. I fcking hate Ross! The best thing that could happen is Ross sells the team. Well, we will have more threads like this in 2020.
     
    Finster likes this.
  10. evo8904

    evo8904 Active Member

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    Agreed! Payton Manning is pretty much his own offensive coordinator.
     
    Finster likes this.
  11. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    Yes it is, very few 1st time HCs actually work out, many with disastrous results, while retreads work at closer to 50% with far less disastrous results.
     
  12. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    No they don't.

    Unless of course you're using a strange qualifier for "working out".
     
  13. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    This is worth reading if you're interested in the profile of a successful HC before they're hired:
    http://www.ninersnation.com/2015/1/...or-the-profile-of-a-successful-nfl-head-coach

    First and foremost, it's saying it's a crapshoot.

    However.. it does say coaches hired in their 40's are slightly more likely to have a winning record than in their 30's or 50's or above. It also says first-time HC's have the worst winning %, 2nd-time a bit better and 3rd the best, though the differences are pretty small among them. Finally, it says two things that tend not to work out well are: 1) hiring position coaches, and 2) internal hires.

    Anyway, the real summary is point #1: in general it's a crapshoot.

    Oh it does say one thing that does help predict success is the quality of the front office the HC goes to (yeah I know.. sorry to share the bad news haha!).
     
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  14. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    I will give whoever we choose a chance and hope its the right choice but I am not sure if I can stomach another 4 years of mediocrity.
     
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  15. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    That's fair.
     
  16. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    I'll take it a step further. Being a good head coach has less to do with how their unit did then people think.

    Just because you're a good offensive or defensive mind, doesn't mean you can be a good HEAD coach.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  17. gunn34

    gunn34 I miss Don & Dan

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    Wade Phillips said the same thing when he was asked about being a HC. He said he was a great def coord and not a good HC. I'm glad he knows where his bread is buttered. I think Rex will come to the same conclusion soon.
     
  18. PSG

    PSG Clear Eyes. Full Hearts.

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    I was hoping for someone with HC experience (Shanahan or Jackson). But Gase would be at the top of my 'wetbacks' list.
     
  19. Rouk

    Rouk Well-Known Member

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    First time head coach have the lowest success rates and it makes perfect sense considering the amount of extra workload they have to get accustomed to. Just think about having to constantly deal with the media for the first time while also worrying about the full roster instead of one side or even one position. Plus on top of that you need to be on top of a huge staff of coaches and other nonsense like equipment managers, fitness trainers etc.
     
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  20. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    How many first time head coaches are going to teams with severe problems? I mean, look at the Dolphins, everyone is saying that we are going to struggle to get good candidates due to all the problems we have, from personnel, to management. I don't think it's realistic to look at "success," which I'm assuming is win/loss record, as any sort of indication.
     
  21. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    No they don't or if they do its more or less negligible.

    You guys are saying its true because it sounds right, but its actually not.
     
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  22. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I provided a link to data in post #53 that shows 1st time HC's have the worst record. But yes it's more or less negligible so it shouldn't be a major factor in any decision.
     
  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Again, there needs to be context. Are first time head coaches generally going to the worst teams?
     
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  24. Coral Reefer

    Coral Reefer Premium Member

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    I don't know that would be an issue.
    Any team changing coaches has issues no?
    If you agree to that then "where" new coaches versus experienced coaches go is a wash.
     
  25. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Why would the worst teams (among those looking for a HC) be more likely to choose first-time HC's? I'd like to at least hear a reason why this might be plausible.

    In any case, while we don't have the data, I think the answer to your question is "probably not" because that article is saying the process is essentially a crapshoot. If it's a crapshoot, then no one knows what's best to look for, suggesting the distribution of first-time HC's among team records (for the year prior to hiring) is mostly random.
     
  26. Coral Reefer

    Coral Reefer Premium Member

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    All this talk is pointless.

    We'll make the wrong choice.
    It's what this orgainzation does at this point.
    Hell even when we made what were widely accepted game changing coach hires in JJ and Saban it didn't work out for us based on what ended up being crazy circumstances.
    I still think it's the curse of Marino.
    You waste a HOF career player and you have to pay the price of a long term curse. :lol:
     
    cbrad likes this.
  27. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    Gase is a QB whisperer?

    Didn't the Bears go 6-10?

    What sorcery has beset us?!
     
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  28. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Streaks are meant to be broken?

    Hopefully before we're fertilizing daffodils. :wink2:
     
  29. P h i N s A N i T y

    P h i N s A N i T y My Porpoise in Life

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    Good article. I did not find anything consistent with this though. The author who compiled the data summarizes:

     
  30. P h i N s A N i T y

    P h i N s A N i T y My Porpoise in Life

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    So your saying...guys who've already failed have far better results than those who haven't......yet. Failure to fail can lead to disastrous results !

    Hell, it's true for Belicheat,Carrol. Maybe everyone else doesn't matter.
     
  31. 2socks

    2socks Rebuilding Since 1973

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    To add to your observation and what people are saying:

    Just because we interview someone does not mean they are going to get the job or take the job. It is a 2 way street and we have been turned down before
     
  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Gotta read more than a summary. There's an entire section titled "Are retreads more successful than first-time head coaches?"

    "First-time head coaches have a Pythagorean win percentage of .482. That number improves to .506 at their second stop before jumping up to .542 on their third job or later, giving a clear advantage to selecting a candidate with prior NFL head coaching experience"
     
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  33. P h i N s A N i T y

    P h i N s A N i T y My Porpoise in Life

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    I wonder what % HCs have gotten a second opportunity, and what their win % was their first stint; in comparison to the many more coaches who didn't get another chance. :yes:


    :pointlol: I don't know why I'm defending Gase but, c'mon ! So much talk about the Bears. Let's not hold the team record against the one year OC when they had a bottom 10 Defense and lots of injuries on offense.
     
  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Well, use us, for example. Totally dysfunctional, unable to get the really good candidates, apparently, according to most. Settling for second or third choices. Compare that to a mediocre team that gets rid of a coach, do they have as much trouble finding a coach? Like us vs San Francisco a couple years ago. That's what I mean. Teams that are basically garbage have a harder time getting the highest rated candidates, does that mean that they often are getting first timers, thereby skewing that data a bit?

    I don't find that to be a totally implausible situation.

    In other words, a first time coach generally is like the lowest man on the totem pole. A guy with a couple seasons under his belt may have shown enough to get some other teams interested, despite perhaps not having a spectacular record in his first coaching gig.
     
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  35. Conuficus

    Conuficus Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well away from here
    So you're saying we should rehire Cam Cameron and we'd be in the SB in what two, maybe three years?
     
  36. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I see.. I guess it's not totally implausible.

    I did think of something else though that would skew the stats against first-time HC's. They include ALL head coaches, meaning coaches that were promoted in-season!! Well.. those are almost always going to be first-time HC's and their records are probably not going to be winning records. The Dolphins have had 3: Bates, Bowles and Campbell, for a combined record of 10-12, which is a losing record. And of course all are first-timers.
     
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  37. Sumlit

    Sumlit Well-Known Member

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    Looks like the interest in him is serious.
     
  38. Phins_Fan_87

    Phins_Fan_87 Phins and Heat fan Club Member

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    la canfora expects miami to make an offer this weekend.
     
  39. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Wonderful...well, my Sundays will be clear for the next couple of yrs.

    Really do hope it is not Gase, has even been a HC on a pop warner FB team?

    Ross chasing the trend again, to me, is our largest problem
     
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  40. Brasfin

    Brasfin Well-Known Member

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    I was leaning towards the more experienced coaches like Shanahan, Coughlin and Hue Jackson, but Gase is starting to grow on me. One thing I can say is that he is way more qualified than the last couple of HCs we hired. He's actually called plays and has had success with a few different QB's. And from a personality standpoint, everything I've heard/seen of him indicates that he doesn't look to be a fiery type of coach but he isn't the mummy that Philbin is either.
     

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